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135-539: SYNOP information is collected by more than 7600 manned and unmanned meteorological stations and more than 2500 mobile stations around the world and is used for weather forecasting and climatic statistics. The format of the original messages is abbreviated, some items are coded. Following is the general structure of a SYNOP message. The message consists of a sequence of numeric groups , which may also contain slashes (indicating missing data) in addition to numeric digits. Leading numbers are fixed group indicators that indicate

270-479: A neoplatonist , argued that since the fixed stars are much more distant than the planets, it is laughable to imagine the planets' effect on human affairs should depend on their position with respect to the zodiac. He also argues that the interpretation of the Moon's conjunction with a planet as good when the moon is full, but bad when the moon is waning, is clearly wrong, as from the Moon's point of view, half of its surface

405-745: A pulse Doppler weather radar is used then wind speed and direction can be determined. These methods, however, leave an in-situ observational gap in the lower atmosphere (from 100 m to 6 km above ground level). To reduce this gap, in the late 1990s weather drones started to be considered for obtaining data from those altitudes. Research has been growing significantly since the 2010s, and weather-drone data may in future be added to numerical weather models. Commerce provides pilot reports along aircraft routes, and ship reports along shipping routes. Research flights using reconnaissance aircraft fly in and around weather systems of interest such as tropical cyclones . Reconnaissance aircraft are also flown over

540-512: A "convincing distinction between astrology and astronomy that remains valid in the twenty-first century." Cicero stated the twins objection (that with close birth times, personal outcomes can be very different), later developed by Augustine . He argued that since the other planets are much more distant from the Earth than the Moon, they could have only very tiny influence compared to the Moon's. He also argued that if astrology explains everything about

675-400: A "rationalistic and critical thinker", was much more sanguine about astrology and critical of Pico's attack. Renaissance scholars commonly practised astrology. Gerolamo Cardano cast the horoscope of king Edward VI of England , while John Dee was the personal astrologer to queen Elizabeth I of England . Catherine de Medici paid Michael Nostradamus in 1566 to verify the prediction of

810-420: A 24-hour cable network devoted to national and local weather reports. Some weather channels have started broadcasting on live streaming platforms such as YouTube and Periscope to reach more viewers. The basic idea of numerical weather prediction is to sample the state of the fluid at a given time and use the equations of fluid dynamics and thermodynamics to estimate the state of the fluid at some time in

945-570: A Greek origin for Hindu astrology. The Indian techniques may also have been augmented with some of the Babylonian techniques. Chinese astrology has a close relation with Chinese philosophy (theory of the three harmonies: heaven, earth and man) and uses concepts such as yin and yang , the Five phases , the 10 Celestial stems , the 12 Earthly Branches , and shichen (時辰 a form of timekeeping used for religious purposes). The early use of Chinese astrology

1080-468: A common computer system. The short wave radio transmission of Synop data was common in the 1980s from Bracknell or Paris but this is now redundant. Synop data is available as downloadable files from a number of internet sites including the College of DuPage . Weather forecasting Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the conditions of the atmosphere for

1215-400: A communal calendar. Farmers addressed agricultural needs with increasing knowledge of the constellations that appear in the different seasons—and used the rising of particular star-groups to herald annual floods or seasonal activities. By the 3rd millennium BCE, civilisations had sophisticated awareness of celestial cycles, and may have oriented temples in alignment with heliacal risings of

1350-416: A daily average temperature of 65 °F (18 °C). Cooler temperatures force heating degree days (one per degree Fahrenheit), while warmer temperatures force cooling degree days. In winter, severe cold weather can cause a surge in demand as people turn up their heating. Similarly, in summer a surge in demand can be linked with the increased use of air conditioning systems in hot weather. By anticipating

1485-470: A difficult technique to use is that there is rarely a perfect analog for an event in the future. Some call this type of forecasting pattern recognition. It remains a useful method of observing rainfall over data voids such as oceans, as well as the forecasting of precipitation amounts and distribution in the future. A similar technique is used in medium range forecasting, which is known as teleconnections, when systems in other locations are used to help pin down

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1620-683: A fearful consideration for the sky and the stars, which they held to be ultimately responsible for every phenomena that occurs on Earth and for the destiny of humankind. Accordingly, they shaped their entire lives in accordance with their interpretations of astral configurations and phenomena. The Hellenistic schools of philosophical skepticism criticized the rationality of astrology. Criticism of astrology by academic skeptics such as Cicero , Carneades , and Favorinus ; and Pyrrhonists such as Sextus Empiricus has been preserved. Carneades argued that belief in fate denies free will and morality ; that people born at different times can all die in

1755-442: A finite differencing scheme in time and space could be devised, to allow numerical prediction solutions to be found. Richardson envisioned a large auditorium of thousands of people performing the calculations and passing them to others. However, the sheer number of calculations required was too large to be completed without the use of computers, and the size of the grid and time steps led to unrealistic results in deepening systems. It

1890-516: A given day. Since outdoor activities are severely curtailed by heavy rain, snow and wind chill , forecasts can be used to plan activities around these events, and to plan ahead and survive them. Weather forecasting is a part of the economy. For example in 2009, the US spent approximately $ 5.8 billion on it, producing benefits estimated at six times as much. In 650 BC, the Babylonians predicted

2025-599: A given location and time. People have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia and formally since the 19th century. Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere, land, and ocean and using meteorology to project how the atmosphere will change at a given place. Once calculated manually based mainly upon changes in barometric pressure , current weather conditions, and sky conditions or cloud cover, weather forecasting now relies on computer-based models that take many atmospheric factors into account. Human input

2160-408: A line of thunderstorms could indicate the approach of a cold front . Cloud-free skies are indicative of fair weather for the near future. A bar can indicate a coming tropical cyclone. The use of sky cover in weather prediction has led to various weather lore over the centuries. The forecasting of the weather for the following six hours is often referred to as nowcasting. In this time range it

2295-446: A person's fate, then it wrongly ignores the visible effect of inherited ability and parenting, changes in health worked by medicine, or the effects of the weather on people. Favorinus argued that it was absurd to imagine that stars and planets would affect human bodies in the same way as they affect the tides, and equally absurd that small motions in the heavens cause large changes in people's fates. Sextus Empiricus argued that it

2430-563: A popular following supported by cheap almanacs. One English almanac compiler, Richard Saunders, followed the spirit of the age by printing a derisive Discourse on the Invalidity of Astrology , while in France Pierre Bayle's Dictionnaire of 1697 stated that the subject was puerile. The Anglo-Irish satirist Jonathan Swift ridiculed the Whig political astrologer John Partridge . In

2565-469: A range of two weeks or more cannot definitively predict the state of the atmosphere, owing to the chaotic nature of the fluid dynamics equations involved. In numerical models, extremely small errors in initial values double roughly every five days for variables such as temperature and wind velocity. Essentially, a model is a computer program that produces meteorological information for future times at given locations and altitudes. Within any modern model

2700-399: A short time into the future. The equations are then applied to this new atmospheric state to find new rates of change, which predict the atmosphere at a yet further time into the future. This time stepping procedure is continually repeated until the solution reaches the desired forecast time. The length of the time step chosen within the model is related to the distance between the points on

2835-507: A spring freeze. Orange groves can suffer significant damage during frosts and freezes, regardless of their timing. Forecasting of wind, precipitation and humidity is essential for preventing and controlling wildfires . Indices such as the Forest fire weather index and the Haines Index , have been developed to predict the areas more at risk of fire from natural or human causes. Conditions for

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2970-411: A surge in demand, utility companies can purchase additional supplies of power or natural gas before the price increases, or in some circumstances, supplies are restricted through the use of brownouts and blackouts . Increasingly, private companies pay for weather forecasts tailored to their needs so that they can increase their profits or avoid large losses. For example, supermarket chains may change

3105-585: Is a set of equations, known as the primitive equations, used to predict the future state of the atmosphere. These equations—along with the ideal gas law —are used to evolve the density , pressure , and potential temperature scalar fields and the velocity vector field of the atmosphere through time. Additional transport equations for pollutants and other aerosols are included in some primitive-equation mesoscale models as well. The equations used are nonlinear partial differential equations, which are impossible to solve exactly through analytical methods, with

3240-444: Is a vast variety of end uses for weather forecasts. Weather warnings are important because they are used to protect lives and property. Forecasts based on temperature and precipitation are important to agriculture, and therefore to traders within commodity markets. Temperature forecasts are used by utility companies to estimate demand over coming days. On an everyday basis, many people use weather forecasts to determine what to wear on

3375-580: Is always in sunlight; and from the planet's point of view, waning should be better, as then the planet sees some light from the Moon, but when the Moon is full to us, it is dark, and therefore bad, on the side facing the planet in question. In 525 BCE, Egypt was conquered by the Persians. The 1st century BCE Egyptian Dendera Zodiac shares two signs – the Balance and the Scorpion – with Mesopotamian astrology. With

3510-571: Is based are early medieval compilations, notably the Bṛhat Parāśara Horāśāstra , and Sārāvalī by Kalyāṇavarma . The Horāshastra is a composite work of 71 chapters, of which the first part (chapters 1–51) dates to the 7th to early 8th centuries and the second part (chapters 52–71) to the later 8th century. The Sārāvalī likewise dates to around 800 CE. English translations of these texts were published by N.N. Krishna Rau and V.B. Choudhari in 1963 and 1961, respectively. Astrology

3645-424: Is known for a Minute-Cast, which is a minute-by-minute precipitation forecast for the next two hours. In the past, human forecasters were responsible for generating the weather forecast based upon available observations. Today, human input is generally confined to choosing a model based on various parameters, such as model biases and performance. Using a consensus of forecast models, as well as ensemble members of

3780-442: Is often associated with systems of horoscopes that purport to explain aspects of a person's personality and predict significant events in their lives based on the positions of celestial objects; the majority of professional astrologers rely on such systems. Throughout its history, astrology has had its detractors, competitors and skeptics who opposed it for moral, religious, political, and empirical reasons. Nonetheless, prior to

3915-399: Is only feasible in dry weather. Prolonged periods of dryness can ruin cotton, wheat, and corn crops. While corn crops can be ruined by drought, their dried remains can be used as a cattle feed substitute in the form of silage . Frosts and freezes play havoc with crops both during the spring and fall. For example, peach trees in full bloom can have their potential peach crop decimated by

4050-583: Is possible to forecast smaller features such as individual showers and thunderstorms with reasonable accuracy, as well as other features too small to be resolved by a computer model. A human given the latest radar, satellite and observational data will be able to make a better analysis of the small scale features present and so will be able to make a more accurate forecast for the following few hours. However, there are now expert systems using those data and mesoscale numerical model to make better extrapolation, including evolution of those features in time. Accuweather

4185-545: Is run out to 10 days into the future, while the Global Forecast System model run by the Environmental Modeling Center is run 16 days into the future. The visual output produced by a model solution is known as a prognostic chart , or prog . The raw output is often modified before being presented as the forecast. This can be in the form of statistical techniques to remove known biases in

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4320-805: Is said to represent twelve different types of personality . It is based on cycles of years, lunar months, and two-hour periods of the day (the shichen). The zodiac traditionally begins with the sign of the Rat , and the cycle proceeds through 11 other animal signs: the Ox , Tiger , Rabbit , Dragon , Snake , Horse , Goat , Monkey , Rooster , Dog , and Pig . Complex systems of predicting fate and destiny based on one's birthday, birth season, and birth hours, such as ziping and Zi Wei Dou Shu ( simplified Chinese : 紫微斗数 ; traditional Chinese : 紫微斗數 ; pinyin : zǐwēidǒushù ) are still used regularly in modern-day Chinese astrology. They do not rely on direct observations of

4455-402: Is still required to pick the best possible model to base the forecast upon, which involves pattern recognition skills, teleconnections , knowledge of model performance, and knowledge of model biases. The inaccuracy of forecasting is due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere; the massive computational power required to solve the equations that describe the atmosphere, the land, and the ocean;

4590-638: Is the aspect of each planet to every other planet, where for example two planets 120° apart (in 'trine') are in a harmonious relationship, but two planets 90° apart ('square') are in a conflicted relationship. Together these relationships and their interpretations are said to form "...the language of the heavens speaking to learned men." Along with tarot divination , astrology is one of the core studies of Western esotericism , and as such has influenced systems of magical belief not only among Western esotericists and Hermeticists , but also belief systems such as Wicca , which have borrowed from or been influenced by

4725-407: Is the search for meaning in the sky. Early evidence for humans making conscious attempts to measure, record, and predict seasonal changes by reference to astronomical cycles, appears as markings on bones and cave walls, which show that lunar cycles were being noted as early as 25,000 years ago. This was a first step towards recording the Moon's influence upon tides and rivers, and towards organising

4860-636: The Tetrabiblos formed the basis of Western astrology, and, "...enjoyed almost the authority of a Bible among the astrological writers of a thousand years or more." The conquest of Asia by Alexander the Great exposed the Greeks to ideas from Syria , Babylon, Persia and central Asia. Around 280 BCE, Berossus , a priest of Bel from Babylon, moved to the Greek island of Kos , teaching astrology and Babylonian culture. By

4995-548: The Hindus , Chinese , and the Maya —developed elaborate systems for predicting terrestrial events from celestial observations. Western astrology , one of the oldest astrological systems still in use, can trace its roots to 19th–17th century BCE Mesopotamia , from where it spread to Ancient Greece, Rome, the Islamic world , and eventually Central and Western Europe. Contemporary Western astrology

5130-549: The Latin translations of the 12th century . In the seventh century, Isidore of Seville argued in his Etymologiae that astronomy described the movements of the heavens, while astrology had two parts: one was scientific, describing the movements of the Sun, the Moon and the stars, while the other, making predictions, was theologically erroneous. The first astrological book published in Europe

5265-561: The New Testament , Jesus is quoted as referring to deciphering and understanding local weather patterns, by saying, "When evening comes, you say, 'It will be fair weather, for the sky is red', and in the morning, 'Today it will be stormy, for the sky is red and overcast.' You know how to interpret the appearance of the sky, but you cannot interpret the signs of the times." In 904 AD, Ibn Wahshiyya 's Nabatean Agriculture , translated into Arabic from an earlier Aramaic work, discussed

5400-607: The planets , and argued: And if you astrologers answer that it is precisely because of this distance and smallness that their influences are negligible, then why is it that you claim a great influence for the smallest heavenly body, Mercury? Why is it that you have given an influence to al-Ra's [the head] and al-Dhanab [the tail], which are two imaginary points [ascending and descending nodes] ? Martin Luther denounced astrology in his Table Talk . He asked why twins like Esau and Jacob had two different natures yet were born at

5535-442: The zodiac (twelve spatial divisions of the ecliptic ) and by their aspects (based on geometric angles) relative to one another. They are also considered by their placement in houses (twelve spatial divisions of the sky). Astrology's modern representation in western popular media is usually reduced to sun sign astrology , which considers only the zodiac sign of the Sun at an individual's date of birth, and represents only 1/12 of

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5670-587: The zodiac , a norming point near 9 degrees in Aries, the trine aspect, planetary exaltations, and the dodekatemoria (the twelve divisions of 30 degrees each). The Babylonians viewed celestial events as possible signs rather than as causes of physical events. The system of Chinese astrology was elaborated during the Zhou dynasty (1046–256 BCE) and flourished during the Han dynasty (2nd century BCE to 2nd century CE), during which all

5805-795: The 1st century BCE, there were two varieties of astrology, one using horoscopes to describe the past, present and future; the other, theurgic , emphasising the soul's ascent to the stars. Greek influence played a crucial role in the transmission of astrological theory to Rome . The first definite reference to astrology in Rome comes from the orator Cato , who in 160 BCE warned farm overseers against consulting with Chaldeans, who were described as Babylonian 'star-gazers'. Among both Greeks and Romans , Babylonia (also known as Chaldea ) became so identified with astrology that 'Chaldean wisdom' became synonymous with divination using planets and stars. The 2nd-century Roman poet and satirist Juvenal complains about

5940-525: The 3rd century BCE, though incorporating the Hindu lunar mansions. The names of the signs (e.g. Greek 'Krios' for Aries, Hindi 'Kriya'), the planets (e.g. Greek 'Helios' for Sun, astrological Hindi 'Heli'), and astrological terms (e.g. Greek 'apoklima' and 'sunaphe' for declination and planetary conjunction, Hindi 'apoklima' and 'sunapha' respectively) in Varaha Mihira's texts are considered conclusive evidence of

6075-511: The Catholic Church maintains that divination, including predictive astrology, is incompatible with modern Catholic beliefs such as free will: All forms of divination are to be rejected: recourse to Satan or demons, conjuring up the dead or other practices falsely supposed to "unveil" the future. Consulting horoscopes, astrology, palm reading, interpretation of omens and lots, the phenomena of clairvoyance, and recourse to mediums all conceal

6210-518: The Egyptian concept of dividing the zodiac into thirty-six decans of ten degrees each, with an emphasis on the rising decan, and the Greek system of planetary Gods, sign rulership and four elements . 2nd century BCE texts predict positions of planets in zodiac signs at the time of the rising of certain decans, particularly Sothis. The astrologer and astronomer Ptolemy lived in Alexandria. Ptolemy's work

6345-454: The English mathematician and physician Thomas Hood made a set of paper instruments that used revolving overlays to help students work out relationships between fixed stars or constellations, the midheaven, and the twelve astrological houses . Hood's instruments also illustrated, for pedagogical purposes, the supposed relationships between the signs of the zodiac, the planets, and the parts of

6480-486: The Enlightenment , however, astrology lost its status as an area of legitimate scholarly pursuit. Following the end of the 19th century and the wide-scale adoption of the scientific method , researchers have successfully challenged astrology on both theoretical and experimental grounds, and have shown it to have no scientific validity or explanatory power . Astrology thus lost its academic and theoretical standing in

6615-409: The Enlightenment, astrology was generally considered a scholarly tradition and was common in learned circles, often in close relation with astronomy , meteorology , medicine , and alchemy . It was present in political circles and is mentioned in various works of literature, from Dante Alighieri and Geoffrey Chaucer to William Shakespeare , Lope de Vega , and Pedro Calderón de la Barca . During

6750-553: The Great's conquest of Asia allowed astrology to spread to Ancient Greece and Rome . In Rome, astrology was associated with " Chaldean wisdom". After the conquest of Alexandria in the 7th century, astrology was taken up by Islamic scholars, and Hellenistic texts were translated into Arabic and Persian. In the 12th century, Arabic texts were imported to Europe and translated into Latin . Major astronomers including Tycho Brahe , Johannes Kepler and Galileo practised as court astrologers. Astrological references appear in literature in

6885-503: The Latin astronomia ). By the 17th century , astronomy became established as the scientific term, with astrology referring to divinations and schemes for predicting human affairs. Many cultures have attached importance to astronomical events, and the Indians , Chinese , and Maya developed elaborate systems for predicting terrestrial events from celestial observations. A form of astrology

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7020-624: The Western esoteric tradition. Tanya Luhrmann has said that "all magicians know something about astrology," and refers to a table of correspondences in Starhawk's The Spiral Dance , organised by planet , as an example of the astrological lore studied by magicians. The earliest Vedic text on astronomy is the Vedanga Jyotisha ; Vedic thought later came to include astrology as well. Hindu natal astrology originated with Hellenistic astrology by

7155-457: The Will of God can be known and predicted. For example, Avicenna's 'Refutation against astrology', Risāla fī ibṭāl aḥkām al-nojūm , argues against the practice of astrology while supporting the principle that planets may act as agents of divine causation. Avicenna considered that the movement of the planets influenced life on earth in a deterministic way, but argued against the possibility of determining

7290-406: The apparent positions of celestial objects . Different cultures have employed forms of astrology since at least the 2nd millennium BCE, these practices having originated in calendrical systems used to predict seasonal shifts and to interpret celestial cycles as signs of divine communications. Most, if not all, cultures have attached importance to what they observed in the sky, and some—such as

7425-400: The aviation industry is especially sensitive to the weather, accurate weather forecasting is essential. Fog or exceptionally low ceilings can prevent many aircraft from landing and taking off. Turbulence and icing are also significant in-flight hazards. Thunderstorms are a problem for all aircraft because of severe turbulence due to their updrafts and outflow boundaries , icing due to

7560-461: The computational grid, and is chosen to maintain numerical stability . Time steps for global models are on the order of tens of minutes, while time steps for regional models are between one and four minutes. The global models are run at varying times into the future. The Met Office 's Unified Model is run six days into the future, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model

7695-504: The condition of the sky is one of the more important parameters used to forecast weather in mountainous areas. Thickening of cloud cover or the invasion of a higher cloud deck is indicative of rain in the near future. High thin cirrostratus clouds can create halos around the sun or moon , which indicates an approach of a warm front and its associated rain. Morning fog portends fair conditions, as rainy conditions are preceded by wind or clouds that prevent fog formation. The approach of

7830-444: The conditions to expect en route and at their destination. Additionally, airports often change which runway is being used to take advantage of a headwind . This reduces the distance required for takeoff, and eliminates potential crosswinds . Commercial and recreational use of waterways can be limited significantly by wind direction and speed, wave periodicity and heights, tides, and precipitation. These factors can each influence

7965-564: The death of her husband, king Henry II of France made by her astrologer Lucus Gauricus. Major astronomers who practised as court astrologers included Tycho Brahe in the royal court of Denmark, Johannes Kepler to the Habsburgs , Galileo Galilei to the Medici , and Giordano Bruno who was burnt at the stake for heresy in Rome in 1600. The distinction between astrology and astronomy was not entirely clear. Advances in astronomy were often motivated by

8100-481: The depth of the troposphere and well into the stratosphere . Data from weather satellites are used in areas where traditional data sources are not available. Compared with similar data from radiosondes, the satellite data has the advantage of global coverage, but at a lower accuracy and resolution. Meteorological radar provide information on precipitation location and intensity, which can be used to estimate precipitation accumulations over time. Additionally, if

8235-493: The desire to improve the accuracy of astrology. Kepler, for example, was driven by a belief in harmonies between Earthly and celestial affairs, yet he disparaged the activities of most astrologers as "evil-smelling dung". Ephemerides with complex astrological calculations, and almanacs interpreting celestial events for use in medicine and for choosing times to plant crops, were popular in Elizabethan England. In 1597,

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8370-546: The development of psychological astrology . Advocates have defined astrology as a symbolic language, an art form, a science , and a method of divination. Though most cultural astrology systems share common roots in ancient philosophies that influenced each other, many use methods that differ from those in the West. These include Hindu astrology (also known as "Indian astrology" and in modern times referred to as "Vedic astrology") and Chinese astrology, both of which have influenced

8505-400: The development of harmful insects can also be predicted by forecasting the weather. Electricity and gas companies rely on weather forecasts to anticipate demand, which can be strongly affected by the weather. They use the quantity termed the degree day to determine how strong of a use there will be for heating ( heating degree day ) or cooling (cooling degree day). These quantities are based on

8640-564: The development of programmable electronic computers. The first ever daily weather forecasts were published in The Times on August 1, 1861, and the first weather maps were produced later in the same year. In 1911, the Met Office began issuing the first marine weather forecasts via radio transmission. These included gale and storm warnings for areas around Great Britain. In the United States,

8775-409: The error involved in measuring the initial conditions; and an incomplete understanding of atmospheric and related processes. Hence, forecasts become less accurate as the difference between the current time and the time for which the forecast is being made (the range of the forecast) increases. The use of ensembles and model consensus helps narrow the error and provide confidence in the forecast. There

8910-431: The exact influence of the stars. Essentially, Avicenna did not deny the core dogma of astrology, but denied our ability to understand it to the extent that precise and fatalistic predictions could be made from it. Ibn Qayyim al-Jawziyya (1292–1350), in his Miftah Dar al-SaCadah , also used physical arguments in astronomy to question the practice of judicial astrology. He recognised that the stars are much larger than

9045-420: The exception of a few idealized cases. Therefore, numerical methods obtain approximate solutions. Different models use different solution methods: some global models use spectral methods for the horizontal dimensions and finite difference methods for the vertical dimension, while regional and other global models usually use finite-difference methods in all three dimensions. The simplest method of forecasting

9180-454: The failure of astrology to explain twins who behave differently although conceived at the same moment and born at approximately the same time. Some of the practices of astrology were contested on theological grounds by medieval Muslim astronomers such as Al-Farabi (Alpharabius), Ibn al-Haytham (Alhazen) and Avicenna . They said that the methods of astrologers conflicted with orthodox religious views of Islamic scholars , by suggesting that

9315-542: The familiar elements of traditional Chinese culture – the Yin-Yang philosophy, theory of the five elements, Heaven and Earth, Confucian morality – were brought together to formalise the philosophical principles of Chinese medicine and divination, astrology, and alchemy . The ancient Arabs that inhabited the Arabian Peninsula before the advent of Islam used to profess a widespread belief in fatalism ( ḳadar ) alongside

9450-534: The fifteenth century. In Paradiso , the final part of the Divine Comedy , the Italian poet Dante Alighieri referred "in countless details" to the astrological planets, though he adapted traditional astrology to suit his Christian viewpoint, for example using astrological thinking in his prophecies of the reform of Christendom . John Gower in the fourteenth century defined astrology as essentially limited to

9585-562: The first day of the fifth month in the Thai lunar calendar , or during the Songkran festival (now celebrated every 13–15 April), depending on the purpose of the use. Augustine (354–430) believed that the determinism of astrology conflicted with the Christian doctrines of man's free will and responsibility, and God not being the cause of evil, but he also grounded his opposition philosophically, citing

9720-694: The first public radio forecasts were made in 1925 by Edward B. "E.B." Rideout, on WEEI , the Edison Electric Illuminating station in Boston. Rideout came from the U.S. Weather Bureau , as did WBZ weather forecaster G. Harold Noyes in 1931. The world's first televised weather forecasts, including the use of weather maps, were experimentally broadcast by the BBC in November 1936. This was brought into practice in 1949, after World War II . George Cowling gave

9855-792: The first weather forecast while being televised in front of the map in 1954. In America, experimental television forecasts were made by James C. Fidler in Cincinnati in either 1940 or 1947 on the DuMont Television Network . In the late 1970s and early 1980s, John Coleman , the first weatherman for the American Broadcasting Company (ABC)'s Good Morning America , pioneered the use of on-screen weather satellite data and computer graphics for television forecasts. In 1982, Coleman partnered with Landmark Communications CEO Frank Batten to launch The Weather Channel (TWC),

9990-558: The future. The main inputs from country-based weather services are surface observations from automated weather stations at ground level over land and from weather buoys at sea. The World Meteorological Organization acts to standardize the instrumentation, observing practices and timing of these observations worldwide. Stations either report hourly in METAR reports, or every six hours in SYNOP reports. Sites launch radiosondes , which rise through

10125-428: The generations to produce weather lore . However, not all of these predictions prove reliable, and many of them have since been found not to stand up to rigorous statistical testing. It was not until the invention of the electric telegraph in 1835 that the modern age of weather forecasting began. Before that, the fastest that distant weather reports could travel was around 160 kilometres per day (100 mi/d), but

10260-622: The globe, to provide accurate and timely weather and oceanographic information to submarines, ships and Fleet Air Arm aircraft. A mobile unit in the Royal Air Force , working with the Met Office, forecasts the weather for regions in which British and allied armed forces are deployed. A group based at Camp Bastion used to provide forecasts for the British armed forces in Afghanistan . Similar to

10395-536: The gods revealed to him in a dream the constellations that would be most favourable for the planned construction of a temple. However, there is controversy about whether these were genuinely recorded at the time or merely ascribed to ancient rulers by posterity. The oldest undisputed evidence of the use of astrology as an integrated system of knowledge is therefore attributed to the records of the first dynasty of Babylon (1950–1651 BCE). This astrology had some parallels with Hellenistic Greek (western) astrology, including

10530-417: The heavy precipitation, as well as large hail , strong winds, and lightning, all of which can cause severe damage to an aircraft in flight. Volcanic ash is also a significant problem for aviation, as aircraft can lose engine power within ash clouds. On a day-to-day basis airliners are routed to take advantage of the jet stream tailwind to improve fuel efficiency. Aircrews are briefed prior to takeoff on

10665-525: The human body adherents believed were governed by the planets and signs. While Hood's presentation was innovative, his astrological information was largely standard and was taken from Gerard Mercator's astrological disc made in 1551, or a source used by Mercator. Despite its popularity, Renaissance astrology had what historian Gabor Almasi calls "elite debate", exemplified by the polemical letters of Swiss physician Thomas Erastus who fought against astrology, calling it "vanity" and "superstition." Then around

10800-568: The intensity changes of such storms relative to physics-based models. Such models use no physics-based atmosphere modeling or large language models . Instead, they learn purely from data such as ERA5. These models typically require far less compute than physics-based models. Microsoft 's Aurora system offers global 10-day weather and 5-day air pollution ( CO 2 , NO , NO 2 , SO 2 , O 3 , and particulates) forecasts with claimed accuracy similar to physics-based models, but at orders-of-magnitude lower cost. Aurora

10935-629: The location of another system within the surrounding regime. An example of teleconnections are by using El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related phenomena. Initial attempts to use artificial intelligence began in the 2010s. Huawei 's Pangu-Weather model, Google 's GraphCast, WindBorne's WeatherMesh model, Nvidia 's FourCastNet, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ' Artificial Intelligence/Integrated Forecasting System, or AIFS all appeared in 2022–2023. In 2024, AIFS started to publish real-time forecasts, showing specific skill at predicting hurricane tracks, but lower-performing on

11070-526: The loss of the Royal Charter inspired FitzRoy to develop charts to allow predictions to be made, which he called "forecasting the weather" , thus coining the term "weather forecast". Fifteen land stations were established to use the telegraph to transmit to him daily reports of weather at set times leading to the first gale warning service. His warning service for shipping was initiated in February 1861, with

11205-503: The making of predictions. The influence of the stars was in turn divided into natural astrology, with for example effects on tides and the growth of plants, and judicial astrology, with supposedly predictable effects on people. The fourteenth-century sceptic Nicole Oresme however included astronomy as a part of astrology in his Livre de divinacions . Oresme argued that current approaches to prediction of events such as plagues, wars, and weather were inappropriate, but that such prediction

11340-606: The media, including radio, using emergency systems as the Emergency Alert System , which break into regular programming. The low temperature forecast for the current day is calculated using the lowest temperature found between 7   pm that evening through 7   am the following morning. So, in short, today's forecasted low is most likely tomorrow's low temperature. There are a number of sectors with their own specific needs for weather forecasts and specialist services are provided to these users as given below: Because

11475-473: The mentioned military branches have their initial enlisted meteorology technical training at Keesler Air Force Base . Military and civilian forecasters actively cooperate in analyzing, creating and critiquing weather forecast products. Astrology Astrology is a range of divinatory practices, recognized as pseudoscientific since the 18th century, that propose that information about human affairs and terrestrial events may be discerned by studying

11610-442: The model to add information to the forecast. While increasing accuracy of forecasting models implies that humans may no longer be needed in the forecasting process at some point in the future, there is currently still a need for human intervention. The analog technique is a complex way of making a forecast, requiring the forecaster to remember a previous weather event that is expected to be mimicked by an upcoming event. What makes it

11745-404: The model's mathematical algorithms (usually an evenly spaced grid). The data are then used in the model as the starting point for a forecast. Commonly, the set of equations used to predict the physics and dynamics of the atmosphere are called primitive equations . These are initialized from the analysis data and rates of change are determined. The rates of change predict the state of the atmosphere

11880-452: The model, or of adjustment to take into account consensus among other numerical weather forecasts. MOS or model output statistics is a technique used to interpret numerical model output and produce site-specific guidance. This guidance is presented in coded numerical form, and can be obtained for nearly all National Weather Service reporting stations in the United States. As proposed by Edward Lorenz in 1963, long range forecasts, those made at

12015-443: The more rapid dissemination of warnings, a national observational network was developed, which could then be used to provide synoptic analyses. To shorten detailed weather reports into more affordable telegrams, senders encoded weather information in telegraphic code , such as the one developed by the U.S. Army Signal Corps . Instruments to continuously record variations in meteorological parameters using photography were supplied to

12150-474: The national weather services issue in the case that severe or hazardous weather is expected. This is done to protect life and property. Some of the most commonly known of severe weather advisories are the severe thunderstorm and tornado warning , as well as the severe thunderstorm and tornado watch . Other forms of these advisories include winter weather, high wind, flood , tropical cyclone , and fog. Severe weather advisories and alerts are broadcast through

12285-505: The observing stations from Kew Observatory – these cameras had been invented by Francis Ronalds in 1845 and his barograph had earlier been used by FitzRoy. To convey accurate information, it soon became necessary to have a standard vocabulary describing clouds; this was achieved by means of a series of classifications first achieved by Luke Howard in 1802, and standardized in the International Cloud Atlas of 1896. It

12420-426: The occupation by Alexander the Great in 332 BCE, Egypt became Hellenistic . The city of Alexandria was founded by Alexander after the conquest, becoming the place where Babylonian astrology was mixed with Egyptian Decanic astrology to create Horoscopic astrology . This contained the Babylonian zodiac with its system of planetary exaltations , the triplicities of the signs and the importance of eclipses. It used

12555-439: The open oceans during the cold season into systems that cause significant uncertainty in forecast guidance, or are expected to be of high impact three–seven days into the future over the downstream continent. Models are initialized using this observed data. The irregularly spaced observations are processed by data assimilation and objective analysis methods, which perform quality control and obtain values at locations usable by

12690-560: The pervasive influence of Chaldeans, saying, "Still more trusted are the Chaldaeans; every word uttered by the astrologer they will believe has come from Hammon's fountain." One of the first astrologers to bring Hermetic astrology to Rome was Thrasyllus , astrologer to the emperor Tiberius , the first emperor to have had a court astrologer, though his predecessor Augustus had used astrology to help legitimise his Imperial rights. The main texts upon which classical Indian astrology

12825-625: The press at the time, their work gained scientific credence, was accepted by the Royal Navy, and formed the basis for all of today's weather forecasting knowledge. Beaufort developed the Wind Force Scale and Weather Notation coding, which he was to use in his journals for the remainder of his life. He also promoted the development of reliable tide tables around British shores, and with his friend William Whewell , expanded weather record-keeping at 200 British coast guard stations. Robert FitzRoy

12960-499: The pressure tendency (the change of pressure over time) have been used in forecasting since the late 19th century. The larger the change in pressure, especially if more than 3.5  hPa (2.6  mmHg ), the larger the change in weather can be expected. If the pressure drop is rapid, a low pressure system is approaching, and there is a greater chance of rain. Rapid pressure rises are associated with improving weather conditions, such as clearing skies. Along with pressure tendency,

13095-400: The primary outlets for presenting weather forecast information to the public. In addition, some cities had weather beacons . Increasingly, the internet is being used due to the vast amount of specific information that can be found. In all cases, these outlets update their forecasts on a regular basis. A major part of modern weather forecasting is the severe weather alerts and advisories that

13230-404: The private sector, military weather forecasters present weather conditions to the war fighter community. Military weather forecasters provide pre-flight and in-flight weather briefs to pilots and provide real time resource protection services for military installations. Naval forecasters cover the waters and ship weather forecasts. The United States Navy provides a special service for itself and

13365-508: The public to protect life and property and maintain commercial interests. Knowledge of what the end user needs from a weather forecast must be taken into account to present the information in a useful and understandable way. Examples include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 's National Weather Service (NWS) and Environment Canada 's Meteorological Service (MSC). Traditionally, newspaper, television, and radio have been

13500-531: The publication of sermons that depicted astrology as a legitimate biblical pursuit for Christians. They commissioned sermons that argued Astrology was divine, Hebraic, and scripturally supported by Bible passages about the Magi and the sons of Seth . According to historian Michelle Pfeffer, "The society's public relations campaign ultimately failed." Modern historians have mostly neglected the Society of Astrologers in favor of

13635-790: The rest of the federal government by issuing forecasts for tropical cyclones across the Pacific and Indian Oceans through its Joint Typhoon Warning Center . Within the United States, the 557th Weather Wing provides weather forecasting for the Air Force and the Army. Air Force forecasters cover air operations in both wartime and peacetime and provide Army support; United States Coast Guard marine science technicians provide ship forecasts for ice breakers and various other operations within their realm; and Marine forecasters provide support for ground- and air-based United States Marine Corps operations. All four of

13770-472: The safety of marine transit. Consequently, a variety of codes have been established to efficiently transmit detailed marine weather forecasts to vessel pilots via radio, for example the MAFOR (marine forecast). Typical weather forecasts can be received at sea through the use of RTTY , Navtex and Radiofax . Farmers rely on weather forecasts to decide what work to do on any particular day. For example, drying hay

13905-529: The same accident or battle; and that contrary to uniform influences from the stars, tribes and cultures are all different. Cicero , in De Divinatione , leveled a critique of astrology that some modern philosophers consider to be the first working definition of pseudoscience and the answer to the demarcation problem . Philosopher of Science Massimo Pigliucci , building on the work of Historian of Science, Damien Fernandez-Beanato, argues that Cicero outlined

14040-415: The same time. Luther also compared astrologers to those who say their dice will always land on a certain number. Although the dice may roll on the number a couple of times, the predictor is silent for all the times the dice fails to land on that number. What is done by God, ought not to be ascribed to the stars. The upright and true Christian religion opposes and confutes all such fables. The Catechism of

14175-520: The second half of the 17th century, the Society of Astrologers (1647–1684), a trade, educational, and social organization, sought to unite London's often fractious astrologers in the task of revitalizing astrology. Following the template of the popular "Feasts of Mathematicians" they endeavored to defend their art in the face of growing religious criticism. The Society hosted banquets, exchanged "instruments and manuscripts", proposed research projects, and funded

14310-508: The soul. The thirteenth century mathematician Campanus of Novara is said to have devised a system of astrological houses that divides the prime vertical into 'houses' of equal 30° arcs, though the system was used earlier in the East. The thirteenth century astronomer Guido Bonatti wrote a textbook, the Liber Astronomicus , a copy of which King Henry VII of England owned at the end of

14445-521: The stars. Scattered evidence suggests that the oldest known astrological references are copies of texts made in the ancient world. The Venus tablet of Ammisaduqa is thought to have been compiled in Babylon around 1700 BCE. A scroll documenting an early use of electional astrology is doubtfully ascribed to the reign of the Sumerian ruler Gudea of Lagash ( c.  2144 – 2124 BCE). This describes how

14580-733: The stars. The Korean zodiac is identical to the Chinese one. The Vietnamese zodiac is almost identical to the Chinese, except for second animal being the Water Buffalo instead of the Ox , and the fourth animal the Cat instead of the Rabbit . The Japanese have since 1873 celebrated the beginning of the new year on 1 January as per the Gregorian calendar . The Thai zodiac begins, not at Chinese New Year , but either on

14715-443: The still extant Royal Society (1660), even though both organizations initially had some of the same members. Astrology saw a popular revival starting in the 19th century, as part of a general revival of spiritualism and—later, New Age philosophy, and through the influence of mass media such as newspaper horoscopes. Early in the 20th century the psychiatrist Carl Jung developed some concepts concerning astrology, which led to

14850-540: The stocks on their shelves in anticipation of different consumer spending habits in different weather conditions. Weather forecasts can be used to invest in the commodity market, such as futures in oranges, corn, soybeans, and oil. The British Royal Navy , working with the Met Office , has its own specialist branch of weather observers and forecasters, as part of the Hydrographic and Meteorological (HM) specialisation, who monitor and forecast operational conditions across

14985-423: The time of the new star of 1572 and the comet of 1577 there began what Almasi calls an "extended epistemological reform" which began the process of excluding religion, astrology and anthropocentrism from scientific debate. By 1679, the yearly publication La Connoissance des temps eschewed astrology as a legitimate topic. During the Enlightenment , intellectual sympathy for astrology fell away, leaving only

15120-439: The total chart. The horoscope visually expresses the set of relationships for the time and place of the chosen event. These relationships are between the seven 'planets', signifying tendencies such as war and love; the twelve signs of the zodiac; and the twelve houses. Each planet is in a particular sign and a particular house at the chosen time, when observed from the chosen place, creating two kinds of relationship. A third kind

15255-441: The type of observation following, and letters are replaced with numbers giving the weather data. Messages from shipboard weather stations, and in different regions of the world, use variations on this scheme. After this first section, stations may include additional sections, prefixed by 222// (section 2, for manned coastal stations, reporting sea surface temperature and wave data), 333 (section 3, used only in some areas of

15390-412: The use of telegraph communications . The first daily weather forecasts were published in The Times in 1861. In the following year a system was introduced of hoisting storm warning cones at the principal ports when a gale was expected. The "Weather Book" which FitzRoy published in 1863 was far in advance of the scientific opinion of the time. As the electric telegraph network expanded, allowing for

15525-435: The various models, can help reduce forecast error. However, regardless how small the average error becomes with any individual system, large errors within any particular piece of guidance are still possible on any given model run. Humans are required to interpret the model data into weather forecasts that are understandable to the end user. Humans can use knowledge of local effects that may be too small in size to be resolved by

15660-475: The weather forecasting of atmospheric changes and signs from the planetary astral alterations; signs of rain based on observation of the lunar phases ; and weather forecasts based on the movement of winds. Ancient weather forecasting methods usually relied on observed patterns of events, also termed pattern recognition. For example, it was observed that if the sunset was particularly red, the following day often brought fair weather. This experience accumulated over

15795-515: The weather from cloud patterns as well as astrology . In about 350 BC, Aristotle described weather patterns in Meteorologica . Later, Theophrastus compiled a book on weather forecasting, called the Book of Signs . Chinese weather prediction lore extends at least as far back as 300 BC, which was also around the same time ancient Indian astronomers developed weather-prediction methods. In

15930-453: The weather, persistence, relies upon today's conditions to forecast tomorrow's. This can be valid when the weather achieves a steady state, such as during the summer season in the tropics. This method strongly depends upon the presence of a stagnant weather pattern. Therefore, when in a fluctuating pattern, it becomes inaccurate. It can be useful in both short- and long-range forecast|long range forecasts. Measurements of barometric pressure and

16065-522: The western world, and common belief in it largely declined, until a continuing resurgence starting in the 1960s. The word astrology comes from the early Latin word astrologia , which derives from the Greek ἀστρολογία —from ἄστρον astron ("star") and -λογία -logia , ("study of"—"account of the stars"). The word entered the English language via Latin and medieval French , and its use overlapped considerably with that of astronomy (derived from

16200-692: The works of poets such as Dante Alighieri and Geoffrey Chaucer , and of playwrights such as Christopher Marlowe and William Shakespeare . Throughout most of its history, astrology was considered a scholarly tradition. It was accepted in political and academic contexts, and was connected with other studies, such as astronomy , alchemy , meteorology , and medicine. At the end of the 17th century, new scientific concepts in astronomy and physics (such as heliocentrism and Newtonian mechanics ) called astrology into question. Astrology thus lost its academic and theoretical standing, and common belief in astrology has largely declined. Astrology, in its broadest sense,

16335-426: The world's cultural history. Western astrology is a form of divination based on the construction of a horoscope for an exact moment, such as a person's birth. It uses the tropical zodiac, which is aligned to the equinoctial points . Western astrology is founded on the movements and relative positions of celestial bodies such as the Sun, Moon and planets, which are analysed by their movement through signs of

16470-536: The world, for the "state of the sky in the tropics"), or 555 (various national code groups). This observation was from April 1, 2022, from LaGuardia Airport in New York City. Although this coded data is still available from three American universities it has now been replaced by a universal digital coding system so data can be shared in the same format whatever the source of the observations. This enables Synop, Metar, upperair and satellite data to be processed by

16605-415: Was a valid field of inquiry. However, he attacked the use of astrology to choose the timing of actions (so-called interrogation and election) as wholly false, and rejected the determination of human action by the stars on grounds of free will. The friar Laurens Pignon (c. 1368–1449) similarly rejected all forms of divination and determinism, including by the stars, in his 1411 Contre les Devineurs . This

16740-530: Was absurd to link human attributes with myths about the signs of the zodiac, and wrote an entire book, Against the Astrologers (Πρὸς ἀστρολόγους, Pros astrologous ), compiling arguments against astrology. Against the Astrologers was the fifth section of a larger work arguing against philosophical and scientific inquiry in general, Against the Professors (Πρὸς μαθηματικούς, Pros mathematikous ). Plotinus ,

16875-510: Was appointed in 1854 as chief of a new department within the Board of Trade to deal with the collection of weather data at sea as a service to mariners . This was the forerunner of the modern Meteorological Office . All ship captains were tasked with collating data on the weather and computing it, with the use of tested instruments that were loaned for this purpose. A storm in October 1859 that caused

17010-651: Was in opposition to the tradition carried by the Arab astronomer Albumasar (787–886) whose Introductorium in Astronomiam and De Magnis Coniunctionibus argued the view that both individual actions and larger scale history are determined by the stars. In the late 15th century, Giovanni Pico della Mirandola forcefully attacked astrology in Disputationes contra Astrologos , arguing that the heavens neither caused, nor heralded earthly events. His contemporary, Pietro Pomponazzi ,

17145-461: Was later found, through numerical analysis, that this was due to numerical instability . The first computerised weather forecast was performed by a team composed of American meteorologists Jule Charney , Philip Duncan Thompson , Larry Gates , and Norwegian meteorologist Ragnar Fjørtoft , applied mathematician John von Neumann , and ENIAC programmer Klara Dan von Neumann . Practical use of numerical weather prediction began in 1955, spurred by

17280-481: Was mainly confined to political astrology , the observation of unusual phenomena, identification of portents and the selection of auspicious days for events and decisions. The constellations of the Zodiac of western Asia and Europe were not used; instead the sky is divided into Three Enclosures (三垣 sān yuán), and Twenty-Eight Mansions (二十八宿 èrshíbā xiù) in twelve Ci ( 十二次 ). The Chinese zodiac of twelve animal signs

17415-629: Was more typically 60–120 kilometres per day (40–75 mi/day) (whether by land or by sea). By the late 1840s, the telegraph allowed reports of weather conditions from a wide area to be received almost instantaneously, allowing forecasts to be made from knowledge of weather conditions further upwind . The two men credited with the birth of forecasting as a science were an officer of the Royal Navy Francis Beaufort and his protégé Robert FitzRoy . Both were influential men in British naval and governmental circles, and though ridiculed in

17550-527: Was not until the 20th century that advances in the understanding of atmospheric physics led to the foundation of modern numerical weather prediction . In 1922, English scientist Lewis Fry Richardson published "Weather Prediction By Numerical Process", after finding notes and derivations he worked on as an ambulance driver in World War I. He described therein how small terms in the prognostic fluid dynamics equations governing atmospheric flow could be neglected, and

17685-660: Was practised in the Old Babylonian period of Mesopotamia , c.  1800 BCE . Vedāṅga Jyotiṣa is one of earliest known Hindu texts on astronomy and astrology ( Jyotisha ). The text is dated between 1400 BCE to final centuries BCE by various scholars according to astronomical and linguistic evidences. Chinese astrology was elaborated in the Zhou dynasty (1046–256 BCE). Hellenistic astrology after 332 BCE mixed Babylonian astrology with Egyptian Decanic astrology in Alexandria , creating horoscopic astrology . Alexander

17820-526: Was taken up by Islamic scholars following the collapse of Alexandria to the Arabs in the 7th century, and the founding of the Abbasid empire in the 8th. The second Abbasid caliph , Al Mansur (754–775) founded the city of Baghdad to act as a centre of learning, and included in its design a library-translation centre known as Bayt al-Hikma 'House of Wisdom', which continued to receive development from his heirs and

17955-661: Was the Liber Planetis et Mundi Climatibus ("Book of the Planets and Regions of the World"), which appeared between 1010 and 1027 AD, and may have been authored by Gerbert of Aurillac . Ptolemy's second century AD Tetrabiblos was translated into Latin by Plato of Tivoli in 1138. The Dominican theologian Thomas Aquinas followed Aristotle in proposing that the stars ruled the imperfect 'sublunary' body, while attempting to reconcile astrology with Christianity by stating that God ruled

18090-472: Was to provide a major impetus for Arabic-Persian translations of Hellenistic astrological texts. The early translators included Mashallah , who helped to elect the time for the foundation of Baghdad, and Sahl ibn Bishr , ( a.k.a. Zael ), whose texts were directly influential upon later European astrologers such as Guido Bonatti in the 13th century, and William Lilly in the 17th century. Knowledge of Arabic texts started to become imported into Europe during

18225-660: Was trained on more than a million hours of data from six weather/climate models. Most end users of forecasts are members of the general public. Thunderstorms can create strong winds and dangerous lightning strikes that can lead to deaths, power outages, and widespread hail damage. Heavy snow or rain can bring transportation and commerce to a stand-still, as well as cause flooding in low-lying areas. Excessive heat or cold waves can sicken or kill those with inadequate utilities, and droughts can impact water usage and destroy vegetation. Several countries employ government agencies to provide forecasts and watches/warnings/advisories to

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