Peter T. Doran is an American Earth scientist who is Professor of Geology and Geophysics and John Franks Endowed Chair at Louisiana State University . Prior to 2015, he was faculty in Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois at Chicago .
77-525: Doran specializes in polar regions, especially Antarctic climate and ecosystems. Doran was the lead author of a research paper about Antarctic temperatures that was published in the journal Nature in January 2002. Because he and his colleagues found that some parts of Antarctica had cooled between 1964 and 2000 , his paper has been frequently cited by opponents of the global warming theory, such as Ann Coulter and Michael Crichton . In an opinion piece in
154-483: A climate change feedback if it is gradually released through meltwater, thus increasing overall carbon dioxide emissions . For comparison, 1400–1650 billion tonnes are contained within the Arctic permafrost . Also for comparison, the annual human caused carbon dioxide emissions amount to around 40 billion tonnes of CO 2 . In Greenland, there is one known area, at Russell Glacier , where meltwater carbon
231-581: A 1 m tidal oscillation can be felt as much as 100 km from the sea. During larger spring tides , an ice stream will remain almost stationary for hours at a time, before a surge of around a foot in under an hour, just after the peak high tide; a stationary period then takes hold until another surge towards the middle or end of the falling tide. At neap tides, this interaction is less pronounced, and surges instead occur approximately every 12 hours. Increasing global air temperatures due to climate change take around 10,000 years to directly propagate through
308-425: A buttressing effect on the ice sheet, the so-called back stress increases and the grounding line is pushed backwards. The ice sheet is likely to start losing more ice from the new location of the grounding line and so become lighter and less capable of displacing seawater. This eventually pushes the grounding line back even further, creating a self-reinforcing mechanism . Because the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet
385-477: A higher level of warming. Isostatic rebound of ice-free land may also add around 1 m (3 ft 3 in) to the global sea levels over another 1,000 years. The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) lies between 45° west and 168° east longitudinally. It was first formed around 34 million years ago, and it is the largest ice sheet on the entire planet, with far greater volume than the Greenland ice sheet or
462-399: A lesser amount consists of glaciers that move slowly from the land mass into the sea. Ice shelves lose mass through breakup of glacial ice ( calving ), or basal melting due to warm ocean water under the ice. Melting or breakup of floating shelf ice does not directly affect global sea levels; however, ice shelves have a buttressing effect on the ice flow behind them. If ice shelves break up,
539-621: A member of several NASA-funded projects using polar regions as analogs for Mars and icy/ocean worlds. He was nominated by former Apollo astronaut Harrison Schmidt to be a member of the Planetary Protection Subcommittee of the NASA Advisory Council in 2008 and served until 2017. In 2018 he was appointed to represent the U.S. as a member of the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Panel on Planetary Protection . In 2022 he
616-432: A much greater area than this minimum definition, measuring at 1.7 million km and 14 million km , respectively. Both ice sheets are also very thick, as they consist of a continuous ice layer with an average thickness of 2 km (1 mi). This ice layer forms because most of the snow which falls onto the ice sheet never melts, and is instead compressed by the mass of newer snow layers. This process of ice sheet growth
693-549: A paper in the January 27, 2009 issue of Eos showing that active climate researchers almost unanimously agree (97.4%) that humans have had a significant impact on the Earth's climate. This was the first of three different studies by three different groups to establish this scientific consensus figure of 97 to 98% agreement, the others being Anderegg et al. (2010) and Cook et al. (2013). Doran also applies his expertise in extreme polar environments to planetary science and has led and been
770-700: A portion of the ice sheet collapses. External factors might also play a role in forcing ice sheets. Dansgaard–Oeschger events are abrupt warmings of the northern hemisphere occurring over the space of perhaps 40 years. While these D–O events occur directly after each Heinrich event, they also occur more frequently – around every 1500 years; from this evidence, paleoclimatologists surmise that the same forcings may drive both Heinrich and D–O events. Hemispheric asynchrony in ice sheet behavior has been observed by linking short-term spikes of methane in Greenland ice cores and Antarctic ice cores. During Dansgaard–Oeschger events ,
847-430: A series of glaciers around its periphery. Although the surface is cold, the base of an ice sheet is generally warmer due to geothermal heat. In places, melting occurs and the melt-water lubricates the ice sheet so that it flows more rapidly. This process produces fast-flowing channels in the ice sheet — these are ice streams . Even stable ice sheets are continually in motion as the ice gradually flows outward from
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#1733114766978924-456: A shallow fjord and stabilized) could have involved MICI, but there weren't enough observations to confirm or refute this theory. The retreat of Greenland ice sheet 's three largest glaciers - Jakobshavn , Helheim , and Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier - did not resemble predictions from ice cliff collapse at least up until the end of 2013, but an event observed at Helheim Glacier in August 2014 may fit
1001-521: A synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming. Environmental Research Letters 11 (4), 048002 1502. Doran, P.T. and M.K. Zimmerman. 2009. Examining the scientific consensus on climate change. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 90 (3), 22-23. Doran, P.T., J.C Priscu, W.B. Lyons, J.E. Walsh, A.G. Fountain, D.M, McKnight, et al. 2002. Antarctic climate cooling and terrestrial ecosystem response. Nature 415 (6871), 517-520. Climate of Antarctica The climate of Antarctica
1078-407: A worst-case of about 33 cm (13 in). For comparison, melting has so far contributed 1.4 cm ( 1 ⁄ 2 in) since 1972, while sea level rise from all sources was 15–25 cm (6–10 in) between 1901 and 2018. Historically, ice sheets were viewed as inert components of the carbon cycle and were largely disregarded in global models. In 2010s, research had demonstrated
1155-409: Is about 1 million years old. Due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions , the ice sheet is now the warmest it has been in the past 1000 years, and is losing ice at the fastest rate in at least the past 12,000 years. Every summer, parts of the surface melt and ice cliffs calve into the sea. Normally the ice sheet would be replenished by winter snowfall, but due to global warming the ice sheet
1232-456: Is believed that the loss of the ice sheet would take place between 2,000 and 13,000 years in the future, although several centuries of high emissions may shorten this to 500 years. 3.3 m (10 ft 10 in) of sea level rise would occur if the ice sheet collapses but leaves ice caps on the mountains behind. Total sea level rise from West Antarctica increases to 4.3 m (14 ft 1 in) if they melt as well, but this would require
1309-468: Is evidence of large glaciers in Greenland for most of the past 18 million years, these ice bodies were probably similar to various smaller modern examples, such as Maniitsoq and Flade Isblink , which cover 76,000 and 100,000 square kilometres (29,000 and 39,000 sq mi) around the periphery. Conditions in Greenland were not initially suitable for a single coherent ice sheet to develop, but this began to change around 10 million years ago , during
1386-478: Is grounded below the sea level, it would be vulnerable to geologically rapid ice loss in this scenario. In particular, the Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers are most likely to be prone to MISI, and both glaciers have been rapidly thinning and accelerating in recent decades. As the result, sea level rise from the ice sheet could be accelerated by tens of centimeters within the 21st century alone. The majority of
1463-718: Is known to vary on seasonal to interannual timescales. The Wilkes Basin is the only major submarine basin in Antarctica that is not thought to be sensitive to warming. Ultimately, even geologically rapid sea level rise would still most likely require several millennia for the entirety of these ice masses (WAIS and the subglacial basins) to be lost. A related process known as Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI) posits that ice cliffs which exceed ~ 90 m ( 295 + 1 ⁄ 2 ft) in above-ground height and are ~ 800 m ( 2,624 + 1 ⁄ 2 ft) in basal (underground) height are likely to collapse under their own weight once
1540-494: Is melting two to five times faster than before 1850, and snowfall has not kept up since 1996. If the Paris Agreement goal of staying below 2 °C (3.6 °F) is achieved, melting of Greenland ice alone would still add around 6 cm ( 2 + 1 ⁄ 2 in) to global sea level rise by the end of the century. If there are no reductions in emissions, melting would add around 13 cm (5 in) by 2100, with
1617-447: Is not directly comparable to the –89.2 °C reading quoted above, since it is a skin temperature deduced from satellite-measured upwelling radiance, rather than a thermometer-measured temperature of the air 1.5 m (5 ft) above the ground surface. The mean annual temperature of the interior is −43.5 °C (−46.3 °F). The coast is warmer; on the coast Antarctic average temperatures are around −10 °C (14.0 °F) (in
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#17331147669781694-421: Is rare and mainly occurs during the summer in coastal areas and surrounding islands. Note that the quoted precipitation is a measure of its equivalence to water, rather than being the actual depth of snow. The air in Antarctica is also very dry. The low temperatures result in a very low absolute humidity , which means that dry skin and cracked lips are a continual problem for scientists and expeditioners working on
1771-483: Is released into the atmosphere as methane , which has a much larger global warming potential than carbon dioxide. However, it also harbours large numbers of methanotrophic bacteria, which limit those emissions. Normally, the transitions between glacial and interglacial states are governed by Milankovitch cycles , which are patterns in insolation (the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth). These patterns are caused by
1848-478: Is still occurring nowadays, as can be clearly seen in an example that occurred in World War II . A Lockheed P-38 Lightning fighter plane crashed in Greenland in 1942. It was only recovered 50 years later. By then, it had been buried under 81 m (268 feet) of ice which had formed over that time period. Even stable ice sheets are continually in motion as the ice gradually flows outward from the central plateau, which
1925-517: Is still open for debate. The icing of Antarctica began in the Late Palaeocene or middle Eocene between 60 and 45.5 million years ago and escalated during the Eocene–Oligocene extinction event about 34 million years ago. CO 2 levels were then about 760 ppm and had been decreasing from earlier levels in the thousands of ppm. Carbon dioxide decrease, with a tipping point of 600 ppm,
2002-542: Is the coldest on Earth . The continent is also extremely dry (it is a desert ), averaging 166 mm (6.5 in) of precipitation per year. Snow rarely melts on most parts of the continent, and, after being compressed, becomes the glacier ice that makes up the ice sheet . Weather fronts rarely penetrate far into the continent, because of the katabatic winds . Most of Antarctica has an ice-cap climate ( Köppen classification EF ) with extremely cold and dry weather. The highest temperature ever recorded on Antarctica
2079-675: Is the segment of the continental ice sheet that covers West Antarctica , the portion of Antarctica on the side of the Transantarctic Mountains that lies in the Western Hemisphere . It is classified as a marine-based ice sheet, meaning that its bed lies well below sea level and its edges flow into floating ice shelves. The WAIS is bounded by the Ross Ice Shelf , the Ronne Ice Shelf , and outlet glaciers that drain into
2156-456: Is the tallest point of the ice sheet, and towards the margins. The ice sheet slope is low around the plateau but increases steeply at the margins. This difference in slope occurs due to an imbalance between high ice accumulation in the central plateau and lower accumulation, as well as higher ablation , at the margins. This imbalance increases the shear stress on a glacier until it begins to flow. The flow velocity and deformation will increase as
2233-506: The Amundsen Sea . As a smaller part of Antarctica, WAIS is also more strongly affected by climate change . There has been warming over the ice sheet since the 1950s, and a substantial retreat of its coastal glaciers since at least the 1990s. Estimates suggest it added around 7.6 ± 3.9 mm ( 19 ⁄ 64 ± 5 ⁄ 32 in) to the global sea level rise between 1992 and 2017, and has been losing ice in
2310-680: The Last Glacial Period at Last Glacial Maximum , the Laurentide Ice Sheet covered much of North America . In the same period, the Weichselian ice sheet covered Northern Europe and the Patagonian Ice Sheet covered southern South America . An ice sheet is a body of ice which covers a land area of continental size - meaning that it exceeds 50,000 km . The currently existing two ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica have
2387-630: The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), from which it is separated by the Transantarctic Mountains . The ice sheet is around 2.2 km (1.4 mi) thick on average and is 4,897 m (16,066 ft) at its thickest point. It is also home to the geographic South Pole , South Magnetic Pole and the Amundsen–Scott South Pole Station . The surface of the EAIS is the driest, windiest, and coldest place on Earth. Lack of moisture in
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2464-540: The Younger Dryas period which appears consistent with MICI. However, it indicates "relatively rapid" yet still prolonged ice sheet retreat, with a movement of >200 km (120 mi) inland taking place over an estimated 1100 years (from ~12,300 years Before Present to ~11,200 B.P.) In recent years, 2002-2004 fast retreat of Crane Glacier immediately after the collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf (before it reached
2541-548: The 2010s at a rate equivalent to 0.4 millimetres (0.016 inches) of annual sea level rise. While some of its losses are offset by the growth of the East Antarctic ice sheet , Antarctica as a whole will most likely lose enough ice by 2100 to add 11 cm (4.3 in) to sea levels. Further, marine ice sheet instability may increase this amount by tens of centimeters, particularly under high warming. Fresh meltwater from WAIS also contributes to ocean stratification and dilutes
2618-497: The Antarctic winter is cooler at the surface than in its middle layers. Consequently, greenhouse gases actually trap heat in the middle atmosphere and reduce its flow towards the surface while the temperature inversion lasts. Due to these factors, East Antarctica had experienced slight cooling for decades while the rest of the world warmed as the result of climate change . Clear warming over East Antarctica only started to occur since
2695-500: The East Antarctic Ice Sheet would not be affected. Totten Glacier is the largest glacier there which is known to be subject to MISI - yet, its potential contribution to sea level rise is comparable to that of the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Totten Glacier has been losing mass nearly monotonically in recent decades, suggesting rapid retreat is possible in the near future, although the dynamic behavior of Totten Ice Shelf
2772-480: The July 27, 2006 New York Times , Doran characterized this as a "misinterpretation" and stated, "I have never thought such a thing ... I would like to remove my name from the list of scientists who dispute global warming." (The temporary phenomenon is related to the "hole" in the ozone. As the "hole heals" the Antarctic will dramatically warm quickly.) Doran and his graduate student Maggie Kendall Zimmerman also published
2849-635: The SLR was greater than 6 m ( 19 + 1 ⁄ 2 ft). As of 2023, the most recent analysis indicates that the Last Interglacial SLR is unlikely to have been higher than 2.7 m (9 ft), as higher values in other research, such as 5.7 m ( 18 + 1 ⁄ 2 ft), appear inconsistent with the new paleoclimate data from The Bahamas and the known history of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS)
2926-840: The U.S. in 1992 for a Ph.D. in Hydrology and Hydrogeology at the University of Nevada, Reno . Peter Doran was born and raised in Toronto , Canada. His father, Terence Doran, was a renowned gynecologist and obstetrician with a private practice and a faculty position at the University of Toronto , and was a pioneer of prenatal diagnosis. McKnight, D.M., E.W. Boyer, P.K. Westerhoff, P.T. Doran, et al. 2001. Spectrofluorometric characterization of dissolved organic matter for indication of precursor organic material and aromaticity. Limnology and Oceanography 46 (1), 38-48. Cook, J., N. Oreskes, P.T. Doran, W.R.L. Anderegg, B. Verheggen et al. 2016. Consensus on consensus:
3003-685: The West Antarctic, the ocean has warmed by 1 °C (1.8 °F) since 1955. Notes Sources Ice sheet In glaciology , an ice sheet , also known as a continental glacier , is a mass of glacial ice that covers surrounding terrain and is greater than 50,000 km (19,000 sq mi). The only current ice sheets are the Antarctic ice sheet and the Greenland ice sheet . Ice sheets are bigger than ice shelves or alpine glaciers . Masses of ice covering less than 50,000 km are termed an ice cap . An ice cap will typically feed
3080-412: The air, high albedo from the snow as well as the surface's consistently high elevation results in the reported cold temperature records of nearly −100 °C (−148 °F). It is the only place on Earth cold enough for atmospheric temperature inversion to occur consistently. That is, while the atmosphere is typically warmest near the surface and becomes cooler at greater elevation, atmosphere during
3157-416: The base of the glacier in as little as 2–18 hours – lubricating the bed and causing the glacier to surge . Water that reaches the bed of a glacier may freeze there, increasing the thickness of the glacier by pushing it up from below. As the margins end at the marine boundary, excess ice is discharged through ice streams or outlet glaciers . Then, it either falls directly into the sea or is accumulated atop
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3234-427: The boulders and other continental rocks they carried, leaving layers known as ice rafted debris . These so-called Heinrich events , named after their discoverer Hartmut Heinrich , appear to have a 7,000–10,000-year periodicity , and occur during cold periods within the last interglacial. Internal ice sheet "binge-purge" cycles may be responsible for the observed effects, where the ice builds to unstable levels, then
3311-449: The cause of the melting. Not only are the ice sheets losing mass, they are losing mass at an accelerating rate. Climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions from human activities occurs everywhere on Earth, and while Antarctica is less vulnerable to it than any other continent, climate change in Antarctica has been observed. Since 1959, there has been an average temperature increase of >0.05 °C/decade since 1957 across
3388-604: The central plateau, which is the tallest point of the ice sheet, and towards the margins. The ice sheet slope is low around the plateau but increases steeply at the margins. Increasing global air temperatures due to climate change take around 10,000 years to directly propagate through the ice before they influence bed temperatures, but may have an effect through increased surface melting, producing more supraglacial lakes . These lakes may feed warm water to glacial bases and facilitate glacial motion. In previous geologic time spans ( glacial periods ) there were other ice sheets. During
3465-402: The collapse of Larsen B, in context. In the 1970s, Johannes Weertman proposed that because seawater is denser than ice, then any ice sheets grounded below sea level inherently become less stable as they melt due to Archimedes' principle . Effectively, these marine ice sheets must have enough mass to exceed the mass of the seawater displaced by the ice, which requires excess thickness. As
3542-515: The continent since the 1957. The Greenland ice sheet is an ice sheet which forms the second largest body of ice in the world. It is an average of 1.67 km (1.0 mi) thick, and over 3 km (1.9 mi) thick at its maximum. It is almost 2,900 kilometres (1,800 mi) long in a north–south direction, with a maximum width of 1,100 kilometres (680 mi) at a latitude of 77°N , near its northern edge. The ice sheet covers 1,710,000 square kilometres (660,000 sq mi), around 80% of
3619-552: The continent, although it had been uneven. West Antarctica warmed by over 0.1 °C/decade from the 1950s to the 2000s, and the exposed Antarctic Peninsula has warmed by 3 °C (5.4 °F) since the mid-20th century. The colder, stabler East Antarctica had been experiencing cooling until the 2000s. Around Antarctica, the Southern Ocean has absorbed more oceanic heat than any other ocean, and has seen strong warming at depths below 2,000 m (6,600 ft). Around
3696-477: The continent. The weather in Antarctica can be highly variable, and the weather conditions can often change dramatically in short periods of time. There are various classifications for describing weather conditions in Antarctica; restrictions given to workers during the different conditions vary by station and nation. Nearly all of Antarctica is covered by a sheet of ice that is, on average, at least 1,500 m (5,000 ft) thick. Antarctica contains 90% of
3773-439: The contribution of Antarctica to present and future sea level change, see sea level rise . Because ice flows, albeit slowly, the ice within the ice sheet is younger than the age of the sheet itself. The total ice volume is different from the sum of the component parts because individual figures have been rounded. About 75% of the coastline of Antarctica is ice shelf . The majority of ice shelf consists of floating ice, and
3850-505: The definition. Further, modelling done after the initial hypothesis indicates that ice-cliff instability would require implausibly fast ice shelf collapse (i.e. within an hour for ~ 90 m ( 295 + 1 ⁄ 2 ft)-tall cliffs), unless the ice had already been substantially damaged beforehand. Further, ice cliff breakdown would produce a large number of debris in the coastal waters - known as ice mélange - and multiple studies indicate their build-up would slow or even outright stop
3927-576: The entire continent, is about 166 millimetres (6.5 inches) per year (Vaughan et al., J. Clim. , 1999). The actual rates vary widely, from high values over the Peninsula (380 to 640 millimetres (15 to 25 inches) a year) to very low values (as little as 50 millimetres (2.0 inches) in the high interior (Bromwich, Reviews of Geophysics , 1988). Areas that receive less than 250 millimetres (9.8 inches) of precipitation per year are classified as deserts . Almost all Antarctic precipitation falls as snow . Rainfall
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#17331147669784004-522: The equilibrium line between these two processes is approached. This motion is driven by gravity but is controlled by temperature and the strength of individual glacier bases. A number of processes alter these two factors, resulting in cyclic surges of activity interspersed with longer periods of inactivity, on time scales ranging from hourly (i.e. tidal flows) to the centennial (Milankovich cycles). On an unrelated hour-to-hour basis, surges of ice motion can be modulated by tidal activity. The influence of
4081-498: The existence of uniquely adapted microbial communities , high rates of biogeochemical and physical weathering in ice sheets, and storage and cycling of organic carbon in excess of 100 billion tonnes. There is a massive contrast in carbon storage between the two ice sheets. While only about 0.5-27 billion tonnes of pure carbon are present underneath the Greenland ice sheet, 6000-21,000 billion tonnes of pure carbon are thought to be located underneath Antarctica. This carbon can act as
4158-406: The floating ice shelves . Those ice shelves then calve icebergs at their periphery if they experience excess of ice. Ice shelves would also experience accelerated calving due to basal melting. In Antarctica, this is driven by heat fed to the shelf by the circumpolar deep water current, which is 3 °C above the ice's melting point. The presence of ice shelves has a stabilizing influence on
4235-410: The form of snow. This would increase the amount of ice in Antarctica, offsetting approximately one third of the expected sea level rise from thermal expansion of the oceans. During a recent decade, East Antarctica thickened at an average rate of about 1.8 cm ( 11 ⁄ 16 in) per year while West Antarctica showed an overall thinning of 0.9 cm ( 3 ⁄ 8 in) per year. For
4312-514: The formation of salty Antarctic bottom water , which destabilizes Southern Ocean overturning circulation . In the long term, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is likely to disappear due to the warming which has already occurred. Paleoclimate evidence suggests that this has already happened during the Eemian period, when the global temperatures were similar to the early 21st century. It
4389-515: The glacier behind them, while an absence of an ice shelf becomes destabilizing. For instance, when Larsen B ice shelf in the Antarctic Peninsula had collapsed over three weeks in February 2002, the four glaciers behind it - Crane Glacier , Green Glacier , Hektoria Glacier and Jorum Glacier - all started to flow at a much faster rate, while the two glaciers (Flask and Leppard) stabilized by
4466-437: The ice before they influence bed temperatures, but may have an effect through increased surface melting, producing more supraglacial lakes . These lakes may feed warm water to glacial bases and facilitate glacial motion. Lakes of a diameter greater than ~300 m are capable of creating a fluid-filled crevasse to the glacier/bed interface. When these crevasses form, the entirety of the lake's (relatively warm) contents can reach
4543-492: The ice flow behind them may accelerate, resulting in increasing melt of the Antarctic ice sheet and an increasing contribution to sea level rise. Known changes in coastline ice around the Antarctic Peninsula: The George VI Ice Shelf , which may be on the brink of instability, has probably existed for approximately 8,000 years, after melting 1,500 years earlier. Warm ocean currents may have been
4620-415: The ice sheet melts and becomes thinner, the weight of the overlying ice decreases. At a certain point, sea water could force itself into the gaps which form at the base of the ice sheet, and marine ice sheet instability (MISI) would occur. Even if the ice sheet is grounded below the sea level, MISI cannot occur as long as there is a stable ice shelf in front of it. The boundary between the ice sheet and
4697-440: The ice shelf, known as the grounding line , is particularly stable if it is constrained in an embayment . In that case, the ice sheet may not be thinning at all, as the amount of ice flowing over the grounding line would be likely to match the annual accumulation of ice from snow upstream. Otherwise, ocean warming at the base of an ice shelf tends to thin it through basal melting. As the ice shelf becomes thinner, it exerts less of
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#17331147669784774-458: The instability soon after it started. Some scientists - including the originators of the hypothesis, Robert DeConto and David Pollard - have suggested that the best way to resolve the question would be to precisely determine sea level rise during the Last Interglacial . MICI can be effectively ruled out if SLR at the time was lower than 4 m (13 ft), while it is very likely if
4851-475: The northern hemisphere warmed considerably, dramatically increasing the release of methane from wetlands, that were otherwise tundra during glacial times. This methane quickly distributes evenly across the globe, becoming incorporated in Antarctic and Greenland ice. With this tie, paleoclimatologists have been able to say that the ice sheets on Greenland only began to warm after the Antarctic ice sheet had been warming for several thousand years. Why this pattern occurs
4928-415: The peripheral ice stabilizing them is gone. Their collapse then exposes the ice masses following them to the same instability, potentially resulting in a self-sustaining cycle of cliff collapse and rapid ice sheet retreat - i.e. sea level rise of a meter or more by 2100 from Antarctica alone. This theory had been highly influential - in a 2020 survey of 106 experts, the paper which had advanced this theory
5005-565: The remnants of the ice shelf did not accelerate. The collapse of the Larsen B shelf was preceded by thinning of just 1 metre per year, while some other Antarctic ice shelves have displayed thinning of tens of metres per year. Further, increased ocean temperatures of 1 °C may lead to up to 10 metres per year of basal melting. Ice shelves are always stable under mean annual temperatures of −9 °C, but never stable above −5 °C; this places regional warming of 1.5 °C, as preceded
5082-445: The summer temperature is below 0 °C (32 °F) most of the time. Severe low temperatures vary with latitude, elevation, and distance from the ocean. East Antarctica is colder than West Antarctica because of its higher elevation. The Antarctic Peninsula has the most moderate climate. Higher temperatures occur in January along the coast and average slightly below freezing. The total precipitation on Antarctica, averaged over
5159-448: The surface of Greenland , or about 12% of the area of the Antarctic ice sheet . The term 'Greenland ice sheet' is often shortened to GIS or GrIS in scientific literature . Greenland has had major glaciers and ice caps for at least 18 million years, but a single ice sheet first covered most of the island some 2.6 million years ago. Since then, it has both grown and contracted significantly. The oldest known ice on Greenland
5236-525: The variations in shape of the Earth's orbit and its angle relative to the Sun, caused by the gravitational pull of other planets as they go through their own orbits. For instance, during at least the last 100,000 years, portions of the ice sheet covering much of North America, the Laurentide Ice Sheet broke apart sending large flotillas of icebergs into the North Atlantic. When these icebergs melted they dropped
5313-572: The warmest parts of Antarctica) and in the elevated inland they average about −55 °C (−67.0 °F) in Vostok. Monthly means at McMurdo Station range from −26 °C (−14.8 °F) in August to −3 °C (26.6 °F) in January. At the South Pole , the highest temperature ever recorded was −12.3 °C (9.9 °F) on 25 December 2011. Along the Antarctic Peninsula , temperatures as high as 18.3 °C (64.9 °F) have been recorded, though
5390-454: The world's ice and more than 70% of its fresh water . If all the land-ice covering Antarctica were to melt — around 30 × 10 ^ km (7.2 × 10 ^ cu mi) of ice — the seas would rise by over 60 m (200 ft). The Antarctic is so cold that even with increases of a few degrees, temperatures would generally remain below the melting point of ice. Higher temperatures are expected to lead to more precipitation, which takes
5467-460: The year 2000, and was not conclusively detected until the 2020s. In the early 2000s, cooling over East Antarctica seemingly outweighing warming over the rest of the continent was frequently misinterpreted by the media and occasionally used as an argument for climate change denial . After 2009, improvements in Antarctica's instrumental temperature record have proven that the warming over West Antarctica resulted in consistent net warming across
5544-479: Was 19.8 °C (67.6 °F) recorded at Signy Research Station , Signy Island on 30 January 1982. The highest temperature on the Antarctic mainland was 18.3 °C (64.9 °F) at the Esperanza Base (Argentina) on 6 February 2020. The lowest air temperature record, the lowest reliably measured temperature on Antarctica was set on 21 July 1983, when a temperature of −89.2 °C (−128.6 °F)
5621-867: Was considered more important than even the year 2014 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report . Sea level rise projections which involve MICI are much larger than the others, particularly under high warming rate. At the same time, this theory has also been highly controversial. It was originally proposed in order to describe how the large sea level rise during the Pliocene and the Last Interglacial could have occurred - yet more recent research found that these sea level rise episodes can be explained without any ice cliff instability taking place. Research in Pine Island Bay in West Antarctica (the location of Thwaites and Pine Island Glacier ) had found seabed gouging by ice from
5698-617: Was made Vice Chair of the Panel. Both an Antarctic stream and glacier were named for Doran by the U.S. Geological Survey to commemorate his many significant research contributions conducted on the continent. Doran was elected as a Fellow of the Geological Society of America in 2018. Doran did his undergraduate at Trent University in Peterborough Ontario, his Master of Science at Queen's University at Kingston , Ontario and moved to
5775-558: Was observed at Vostok Station . For comparison, this is 10.7 °C (19.3 °F) colder than subliming dry ice (at sea level pressure). The elevation of the location is 3,488 meters (11,444 feet). Satellite measurements have identified even lower ground temperatures, with −93.2 °C (−135.8 °F) having been observed at the cloud-free East Antarctic Plateau on 10 August 2010. The lowest recorded temperature of any location on Earth's surface at 81°48′S 63°30′E / 81.8°S 63.5°E / -81.8; 63.5
5852-608: Was revised with new data in 2018 in nearly 100 locations, ranging from −93.2 °C (−135.8 °F) to −98 °C (−144.4 °F). This unnamed part of the Antarctic plateau , between Dome A and Dome F , was measured on 10 August 2010, and the temperature was deduced from radiance measured by the Landsat 8 and other satellites. It was discovered during a National Snow and Ice Data Center review of stored data in December 2013 but revised by researchers on 25 June 2018. This temperature
5929-520: Was the primary agent forcing Antarctic glaciation. The glaciation was favored by an interval when the Earth's orbit favored cool summers but oxygen isotope ratio cycle marker changes were too large to be explained by Antarctic ice-sheet growth alone indicating an ice age of some size. The opening of the Drake Passage may have played a role as well though models of the changes suggest declining CO 2 levels to have been more important. While there
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