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131-462: The scientific method requires observations of natural phenomena to formulate and test hypotheses . It consists of the following steps: Observations play a role in the second and fifth steps of the scientific method. However, the need for reproducibility requires that observations by different observers can be comparable. Human sense impressions are subjective and qualitative , making them difficult to record or compare. The use of measurement

262-447: A crucial experiment . If the experimental results confirm the predictions, then the hypotheses are considered more likely to be correct, but might still be wrong and continue to be subject to further testing. The experimental control is a technique for dealing with observational error. This technique uses the contrast between multiple samples, or observations, or populations, under differing conditions, to see what varies or what remains

393-427: A "balanced" argument, i.e., that included both pros and cons; the unrestricted-research instructions included nothing on how to create the argument. Overall, the results revealed that the balanced-research instructions significantly increased the incidence of opposing information in arguments. These data also reveal that personal belief is not a source of myside bias; however, that those participants, who believe that

524-410: A 1919 solar eclipse supported General Relativity rather than Newtonian gravitation . [REDACTED] Watson and Crick showed an initial (and incorrect) proposal for the structure of DNA to a team from King's College London – Rosalind Franklin , Maurice Wilkins , and Raymond Gosling . Franklin immediately spotted the flaws which concerned the water content. Later Watson saw Franklin's photo 51 ,

655-426: A comparison of U.S. states with and without the death penalty, and a comparison of murder rates in a state before and after the introduction of the death penalty. After reading a quick description of each study, the participants were asked whether their opinions had changed. Then, they read a more detailed account of each study's procedure and had to rate whether the research was well-conducted and convincing. In fact,

786-606: A complex rule-discovery task that involved moving objects simulated by a computer. Objects on the computer screen followed specific laws, which the participants had to figure out. So, participants could "fire" objects across the screen to test their hypotheses. Despite making many attempts over a ten-hour session, none of the participants figured out the rules of the system. They typically attempted to confirm rather than falsify their hypotheses, and were reluctant to consider alternatives. Even after seeing objective evidence that refuted their working hypotheses, they frequently continued doing

917-458: A complex, unconscious process of abstraction , in which certain details of the incoming sense data are noticed and remembered, and the rest is forgotten. What is kept and what is thrown away depends on an internal model or representation of the world, called by psychologists a schema , that is built up over our entire lives. The data is fitted into this schema. Later when events are remembered, memory gaps may even be filled by "plausible" data

1048-518: A controlled setting, such as a laboratory, or made on more or less inaccessible or unmanipulatable objects such as stars or human populations. The measurements often require specialized scientific instruments such as thermometers , spectroscopes , particle accelerators , or voltmeters , and the progress of a scientific field is usually intimately tied to their invention and improvement. I am not accustomed to saying anything with certainty after only one or two observations. The scientific definition of

1179-492: A cultural context and are mutable. The researcher found important individual difference in argumentation. Studies have suggested that individual differences such as deductive reasoning ability, ability to overcome belief bias, epistemological understanding, and thinking disposition are significant predictors of the reasoning and generating arguments, counterarguments, and rebuttals. A study by Christopher Wolfe and Anne Britt also investigated how participants' views of "what makes

1310-459: A dangerous German car on American streets and a dangerous American car on German streets. Participants believed that the dangerous German car on American streets should be banned more quickly than the dangerous American car on German streets. There was no difference among intelligence levels at the rate participants would ban a car. Biased interpretation is not restricted to emotionally significant topics. In another experiment, participants were told

1441-411: A detailed X-ray diffraction image, which showed an X-shape and was able to confirm the structure was helical. Once predictions are made, they can be sought by experiments. If the test results contradict the predictions, the hypotheses which entailed them are called into question and become less tenable. Sometimes the experiments are conducted incorrectly or are not very well designed when compared to

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1572-433: A drug to cure this particular disease?" This stage frequently involves finding and evaluating evidence from previous experiments, personal scientific observations or assertions, as well as the work of other scientists. If the answer is already known, a different question that builds on the evidence can be posed. When applying the scientific method to research, determining a good question can be very difficult and it will affect

1703-450: A good argument is one that is based on facts, are more likely to exhibit myside bias than other participants. This evidence is consistent with the claims proposed in Baron's article—that people's opinions about what makes good thinking can influence how arguments are generated. Before psychological research on confirmation bias, the phenomenon had been observed throughout history. Beginning with

1834-499: A good argument?" can be a source of myside bias that influences the way a person formulates their own arguments. The study investigated individual differences of argumentation schema and asked participants to write essays. The participants were randomly assigned to write essays either for or against their preferred side of an argument and were given research instructions that took either a balanced or an unrestricted approach. The balanced-research instructions directed participants to create

1965-713: A group of participants were shown evidence that extroverted people are more successful than introverts. Another group were told the opposite. In a subsequent, apparently unrelated study, participants were asked to recall events from their lives in which they had been either introverted or extroverted. Each group of participants provided more memories connecting themselves with the more desirable personality type, and recalled those memories more quickly. Changes in emotional states can also influence memory recall. Participants rated how they felt when they had first learned that O. J. Simpson had been acquitted of murder charges. They described their emotional reactions and confidence regarding

2096-431: A guideline for proceeding: The iterative cycle inherent in this step-by-step method goes from point 3 to 6 and back to 3 again. While this schema outlines a typical hypothesis/testing method, many philosophers, historians, and sociologists of science, including Paul Feyerabend , claim that such descriptions of scientific method have little relation to the ways that science is actually practiced. The basic elements of

2227-530: A high-status staff member than when getting to know fellow students. Psychologists Jennifer Lerner and Philip Tetlock distinguish two different kinds of thinking process. Exploratory thought neutrally considers multiple points of view and tries to anticipate all possible objections to a particular position, while confirmatory thought seeks to justify a specific point of view. Lerner and Tetlock say that when people expect to justify their position to others whose views they already know, they will tend to adopt

2358-484: A moment's hesitation the information that is agreeable to it. Prejudice and partisanship obscure the critical faculty and preclude critical investigation. The result is that falsehoods are accepted and transmitted. In the Novum Organum , English philosopher and scientist Francis Bacon (1561–1626) noted that biased assessment of evidence drove "all superstitions, whether in astrology, dreams, omens, divine judgments or

2489-412: A neutral manner. This effect is called "selective recall", "confirmatory memory", or "access-biased memory". Psychological theories differ in their predictions about selective recall. Schema theory predicts that information matching prior expectations will be more easily stored and recalled than information that does not match. Some alternative approaches say that surprising information stands out and so

2620-481: A person's expectations influence their own behavior, bringing about the expected result. Some psychologists restrict the term "confirmation bias" to selective collection of evidence that supports what one already believes while ignoring or rejecting evidence that supports a different conclusion. Others apply the term more broadly to the tendency to preserve one's existing beliefs when searching for evidence, interpreting it, or recalling it from memory. Confirmation bias

2751-403: A phenomenon under study. Albert Einstein once observed that "there is no logical bridge between phenomena and their theoretical principles." Charles Sanders Peirce , borrowing a page from Aristotle ( Prior Analytics , 2.25 ) described the incipient stages of inquiry , instigated by the "irritation of doubt" to venture a plausible guess, as abductive reasoning . The history of science

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2882-401: A phrase coined by English psychologist Peter Wason , is the tendency of people to favor information that confirms or strengthens their beliefs or values and is difficult to dislodge once affirmed. Confirmation biases are effects in information processing . They differ from what is sometimes called the behavioral confirmation effect , commonly known as self-fulfilling prophecy , in which

3013-434: A plane from New York to Paris is an experiment that tests the aerodynamical hypotheses used for constructing the plane. These institutions thereby reduce the research function to a cost/benefit, which is expressed as money, and the time and attention of the researchers to be expended, in exchange for a report to their constituents. Current large instruments, such as CERN's Large Hadron Collider (LHC), or LIGO , or

3144-517: A police detective may identify a suspect early in an investigation, but then may only seek confirming rather than disconfirming evidence. A medical practitioner may prematurely focus on a particular disorder early in a diagnostic session, and then seek only confirming evidence. In social media , confirmation bias is amplified by the use of filter bubbles , or "algorithmic editing", which display to individuals only information they are likely to agree with, while excluding opposing views. Confirmation bias,

3275-442: A positive answer. In studies where subjects could select either such pseudo-tests or genuinely diagnostic ones, they favored the genuinely diagnostic. The preference for positive tests in itself is not a bias, since positive tests can be highly informative. However, in combination with other effects, this strategy can confirm existing beliefs or assumptions, independently of whether they are true. In real-world situations, evidence

3406-410: A predecessor idea, but perhaps more in its ability to stimulate the research that will illuminate ... bald suppositions and areas of vagueness. In general, scientists tend to look for theories that are " elegant " or " beautiful ". Scientists often use these terms to refer to a theory that is following the known facts but is nevertheless relatively simple and easy to handle. Occam's Razor serves as

3537-422: A preference for genuine diagnostic tests. In an initial experiment, participants rated another person on the introversion–extroversion personality dimension on the basis of an interview. They chose the interview questions from a given list. When the interviewee was introduced as an introvert, the participants chose questions that presumed introversion, such as, "What do you find unpleasant about noisy parties?" When

3668-411: A recent addition. According to Robert MacCoun , most biased evidence processing occurs through a combination of "cold" (cognitive) and "hot" (motivated) mechanisms. Cognitive explanations for confirmation bias are based on limitations in people's ability to handle complex tasks, and the shortcuts, called heuristics , that they use. For example, people may judge the reliability of evidence by using

3799-537: A rule applying to triples of numbers. They were told that (2,4,6) fits the rule. They generated triples, and the experimenter told them whether each triple conformed to the rule. The actual rule was simply "any ascending sequence", but participants had great difficulty in finding it, often announcing rules that were far more specific, such as "the middle number is the average of the first and last". The participants seemed to test only positive examples—triples that obeyed their hypothesized rule. For example, if they thought

3930-519: A rule of thumb for choosing the most desirable amongst a group of equally explanatory hypotheses. To minimize the confirmation bias that results from entertaining a single hypothesis, strong inference emphasizes the need for entertaining multiple alternative hypotheses, and avoiding artifacts. [REDACTED] James D. Watson , Francis Crick , and others hypothesized that DNA had a helical structure. This implied that DNA's X-ray diffraction pattern would be 'x shaped'. This prediction followed from

4061-401: A second group were told it was for a job in real estate sales. There was a significant difference between what these two groups recalled, with the "librarian" group recalling more examples of introversion and the "sales" groups recalling more extroverted behavior. A selective memory effect has also been shown in experiments that manipulate the desirability of personality types. In one of these,

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4192-619: A set of phenomena. Normally, hypotheses have the form of a mathematical model . Sometimes, but not always, they can also be formulated as existential statements , stating that some particular instance of the phenomenon being studied has some characteristic and causal explanations, which have the general form of universal statements , stating that every instance of the phenomenon has a particular characteristic. Scientists are free to use whatever resources they have – their own creativity, ideas from other fields, inductive reasoning , Bayesian inference , and so on – to imagine possible explanations for

4323-493: A similar position to those people, and then use confirmatory thought to bolster their own credibility. However, if the external parties are overly aggressive or critical, people will disengage from thought altogether, and simply assert their personal opinions without justification. Lerner and Tetlock say that people only push themselves to think critically and logically when they know in advance they will need to explain themselves to others who are well-informed, genuinely interested in

4454-493: A small change in a question's wording can affect how people search through available information, and hence the conclusions they reach. This was shown using a fictional child custody case. Participants read that Parent A was moderately suitable to be the guardian in multiple ways. Parent B had a mix of salient positive and negative qualities: a close relationship with the child but a job that would take them away for long periods of time. When asked, "Which parent should have custody of

4585-417: A story about a theft. They had to rate the evidential importance of statements arguing either for or against a particular character being responsible. When they hypothesized that character's guilt, they rated statements supporting that hypothesis as more important than conflicting statements. People may remember evidence selectively to reinforce their expectations, even if they gather and interpret evidence in

4716-584: A term sometimes differs substantially from its natural language usage. For example, mass and weight overlap in meaning in common discourse, but have distinct meanings in mechanics . Scientific quantities are often characterized by their units of measure which can later be described in terms of conventional physical units when communicating the work. New theories are sometimes developed after realizing certain terms have not previously been sufficiently clearly defined. For example, Albert Einstein 's first paper on relativity begins by defining simultaneity and

4847-441: A weak bias towards positive tests. This pattern, of a main preference for diagnostic tests and a weaker preference for positive tests, has been replicated in other studies. Personality traits influence and interact with biased search processes. Individuals vary in their abilities to defend their attitudes from external attacks in relation to selective exposure . Selective exposure occurs when individuals search for information that

4978-406: Is a result of automatic, unintentional strategies rather than deliberate deception. Experiments have found repeatedly that people tend to test hypotheses in a one-sided way, by searching for evidence consistent with their current hypothesis . Rather than searching through all the relevant evidence, they phrase questions to receive an affirmative answer that supports their theory. They look for

5109-416: Is a sign of better social skills to ask, "Do you feel awkward in social situations?" rather than, "Do you like noisy parties?" The connection between confirmation bias and social skills was corroborated by a study of how college students get to know other people. Highly self-monitoring students, who are more sensitive to their environment and to social norms , asked more matching questions when interviewing

5240-600: Is a social enterprise, and scientific work tends to be accepted by the scientific community when it has been confirmed. Crucially, experimental and theoretical results must be reproduced by others within the scientific community. Researchers have given their lives for this vision; Georg Wilhelm Richmann was killed by ball lightning (1753) when attempting to replicate the 1752 kite-flying experiment of Benjamin Franklin . Confirmation bias Confirmation bias (also confirmatory bias , myside bias , or congeniality bias )

5371-482: Is an empirical method for acquiring knowledge that has been referred to while doing science since at least the 17th century. The scientific method involves careful observation coupled with rigorous scepticism , because cognitive assumptions can distort the interpretation of the observation . Scientific inquiry includes creating a testable hypothesis through inductive reasoning , testing it through experiments and statistical analysis, and adjusting or discarding

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5502-859: Is consistent, rather than inconsistent, with their personal beliefs. An experiment examined the extent to which individuals could refute arguments that contradicted their personal beliefs. People with high confidence levels more readily seek out contradictory information to their personal position to form an argument. This can take the form of an oppositional news consumption , where individuals seek opposing partisan news in order to counterargue. Individuals with low confidence levels do not seek out contradictory information and prefer information that supports their personal position. People generate and evaluate evidence in arguments that are biased towards their own beliefs and opinions. Heightened confidence levels decrease preference for information that supports individuals' personal beliefs. Another experiment gave participants

5633-399: Is essential that the outcome of testing such a prediction be currently unknown. Only in this case does a successful outcome increase the probability that the hypothesis is true. If the outcome is already known, it is called a consequence and should have already been considered while formulating the hypothesis . If the predictions are not accessible by observation or experience, the hypothesis

5764-424: Is filled with stories of scientists claiming a "flash of inspiration", or a hunch, which then motivated them to look for evidence to support or refute their idea. Michael Polanyi made such creativity the centerpiece of his discussion of methodology. William Glen observes that the success of a hypothesis, or its service to science, lies not simply in its perceived "truth", or power to displace, subsume or reduce

5895-413: Is memorable. Predictions from both these theories have been confirmed in different experimental contexts, with no theory winning outright. In one study, participants read a profile of a woman which described a mix of introverted and extroverted behaviors. They later had to recall examples of her introversion and extroversion. One group was told this was to assess the woman for a job as a librarian, while

6026-508: Is not normally possible to check the air pressure in an automobile tire without letting out some of the air, thereby changing the pressure. However, in most fields of science, it is possible to reduce the effects of observation to insignificance by using better instruments. Considered as a physical process itself, all forms of observation (human or instrumental) involve amplification and are thus thermodynamically irreversible processes , increasing entropy . In some specific fields of science,

6157-417: Is not yet testable and so will remain to that extent unscientific in a strict sense. A new technology or theory might make the necessary experiments feasible. For example, while a hypothesis on the existence of other intelligent species may be convincing with scientifically based speculation, no known experiment can test this hypothesis. Therefore, science itself can have little to say about the possibility. In

6288-511: Is often complex and mixed. For example, various contradictory ideas about someone could each be supported by concentrating on one aspect of his or her behavior. Thus any search for evidence in favor of a hypothesis is likely to succeed. One illustration of this is the way the phrasing of a question can significantly change the answer. For example, people who are asked, "Are you happy with your social life?" report greater satisfaction than those asked, "Are you un happy with your social life?" Even

6419-575: Is the discovery of x-rays . It can also result in erroneous scientific support for widely held cultural myths, on the other hand, as in the scientific racism that supported ideas of racial superiority in the early 20th century. Correct scientific technique emphasizes careful recording of observations, separating experimental observations from the conclusions drawn from them, and techniques such as blind or double blind experiments , to minimize observational bias. Modern scientific instruments can extensively process "observations" before they are presented to

6550-461: Is the process by which science is carried out. As in other areas of inquiry, science (through the scientific method) can build on previous knowledge, and unify understanding of its studied topics over time. This model can be seen to underlie the scientific revolution . The overall process involves making conjectures ( hypotheses ), predicting their logical consequences, then carrying out experiments based on those predictions to determine whether

6681-650: Is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values . People display this bias when they select information that supports their views, ignoring contrary information, or when they interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing attitudes. The effect is strongest for desired outcomes, for emotionally charged issues, and for deeply entrenched beliefs. Biased search for information, biased interpretation of this information, and biased memory recall, have been invoked to explain four specific effects: A series of psychological experiments in

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6812-426: The availability heuristic that is, how readily a particular idea comes to mind. It is also possible that people can only focus on one thought at a time, so find it difficult to test alternative hypotheses in parallel. Another heuristic is the positive test strategy identified by Klayman and Ha, in which people test a hypothesis by examining cases where they expect a property or event to occur. This heuristic avoids

6943-684: The National Ignition Facility (NIF), or the International Space Station (ISS), or the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), entail expected costs of billions of dollars, and timeframes extending over decades. These kinds of institutions affect public policy, on a national or even international basis, and the researchers would require shared access to such machines and their adjunct infrastructure . Scientists assume an attitude of openness and accountability on

7074-474: The scientific revolution of the 16th and 17th centuries some of the most important developments were the furthering of empiricism by Francis Bacon and Robert Hooke , the rationalist approach described by René Descartes and inductivism , brought to particular prominence by Isaac Newton and those who followed him. Experiments were advocated by Francis Bacon , and performed by Giambattista della Porta , Johannes Kepler , and Galileo Galilei . There

7205-415: The visual system , rather than to study free will , for example. His cautionary example was the gene; the gene was much more poorly understood before Watson and Crick's pioneering discovery of the structure of DNA; it would have been counterproductive to spend much time on the definition of the gene, before them. [REDACTED] Linus Pauling proposed that DNA might be a triple helix . This hypothesis

7336-405: The "positive test strategy". This strategy is an example of a heuristic : a reasoning shortcut that is imperfect but easy to compute. Klayman and Ha used Bayesian probability and information theory as their standard of hypothesis-testing, rather than the falsificationism used by Wason. According to these ideas, each answer to a question yields a different amount of information, which depends on

7467-589: The "scientific method" and in doing so largely replaced the notion of science as a homogeneous and universal method with that of it being a heterogeneous and local practice. In particular, Paul Feyerabend, in the 1975 first edition of his book Against Method , argued against there being any universal rules of science ; Karl Popper , and Gauch 2003, disagree with Feyerabend's claim. Later stances include physicist Lee Smolin 's 2013 essay "There Is No Scientific Method", in which he espouses two ethical principles , and historian of science Daniel Thurs' chapter in

7598-449: The 1830s and 1850s, when Baconianism was popular, naturalists like William Whewell, John Herschel and John Stuart Mill engaged in debates over "induction" and "facts" and were focused on how to generate knowledge. In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, a debate over realism vs. antirealism was conducted as powerful scientific theories extended beyond the realm of the observable. The term "scientific method" came into popular use in

7729-442: The 1960s suggested that people are biased toward confirming their existing beliefs. Later work re-interpreted these results as a tendency to test ideas in a one-sided way, focusing on one possibility and ignoring alternatives. Explanations for the observed biases include wishful thinking and the limited human capacity to process information. Another proposal is that people show confirmation bias because they are pragmatically assessing

7860-425: The 2015 book Newton's Apple and Other Myths about Science , which concluded that the scientific method is a myth or, at best, an idealization. As myths are beliefs, they are subject to the narrative fallacy as Taleb points out. Philosophers Robert Nola and Howard Sankey, in their 2007 book Theories of Scientific Method , said that debates over the scientific method continue, and argued that Feyerabend, despite

7991-542: The Earth, while controlled experiments can be seen in the works of al-Battani (853–929 CE) and Alhazen (965–1039 CE). [REDACTED] Watson and Crick then produced their model, using this information along with the previously known information about DNA's composition, especially Chargaff's rules of base pairing. After considerable fruitless experimentation, being discouraged by their superior from continuing, and numerous false starts, Watson and Crick were able to infer

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8122-713: The Greek historian Thucydides ( c.  460 BC  – c.  395 BC ), who wrote of misguided reason in The Peloponnesian War ; "... for it is a habit of mankind to entrust to careless hope what they long for, and to use sovereign reason to thrust aside what they do not fancy". Italian poet Dante Alighieri (1265–1321) noted it in the Divine Comedy , in which St. Thomas Aquinas cautions Dante upon meeting in Paradise, "opinion—hasty—often can incline to

8253-462: The United States) to assess their intelligence levels. They then read information regarding safety concerns for vehicles, and the experimenters manipulated the national origin of the car. American participants provided their opinion if the car should be banned on a six-point scale, where one indicated "definitely yes" and six indicated "definitely no". Participants firstly evaluated if they would allow

8384-439: The accuracy of memory recall. In an experiment, widows and widowers rated the intensity of their experienced grief six months and five years after the deaths of their spouses. Participants noted a higher experience of grief at six months rather than at five years. Yet, when the participants were asked after five years how they had felt six months after the death of their significant other, the intensity of grief participants recalled

8515-403: The answer—three numbers in ascending order—is very broad, so positive tests are unlikely to yield informative answers. Klayman and Ha supported their analysis by citing an experiment that used the labels "DAX" and "MED" in place of "fits the rule" and "doesn't fit the rule". This avoided implying that the aim was to find a low-probability rule. Participants had much more success with this version of

8646-446: The basic method used for scientific inquiry. The scientific community and philosophers of science generally agree on the following classification of method components. These methodological elements and organization of procedures tend to be more characteristic of experimental sciences than social sciences . Nonetheless, the cycle of formulating hypotheses, testing and analyzing the results, and formulating new hypotheses, will resemble

8777-421: The candidate they opposed as contradictory. In this experiment, the participants made their judgments while in a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanner which monitored their brain activity. As participants evaluated contradictory statements by their favored candidate, emotional centers of their brains were aroused. This did not happen with the statements by the other figures. The experimenters inferred that

8908-529: The candidates. They were shown apparently contradictory pairs of statements, either from Republican candidate George W. Bush , Democratic candidate John Kerry or a politically neutral public figure. They were also given further statements that made the apparent contradiction seem reasonable. From these three pieces of information, they had to decide whether each individual's statements were inconsistent. There were strong differences in these evaluations, with participants much more likely to interpret statements from

9039-456: The child?" the majority of participants chose Parent B, looking mainly for positive attributes. However, when asked, "Which parent should be denied custody of the child?" they looked for negative attributes and the majority answered that Parent B should be denied custody, implying that Parent A should have custody. Similar studies have demonstrated how people engage in a biased search for information, but also that this phenomenon may be limited by

9170-458: The cognitive and motivational theories, arguing that motivation creates the bias, but cognitive factors determine the size of the effect. Explanations in terms of cost-benefit analysis assume that people do not just test hypotheses in a disinterested way, but assess the costs of different errors. Using ideas from evolutionary psychology , James Friedrich suggests that people do not primarily aim at truth in testing hypotheses, but try to avoid

9301-476: The consequences that they would expect if their hypothesis was true, rather than what would happen if it was false. For example, someone using yes/no questions to find a number they suspect to be the number 3 might ask, "Is it an odd number ?" People prefer this type of question, called a "positive test", even when a negative test such as "Is it an even number?" would yield exactly the same information. However, this does not mean that people seek tests that guarantee

9432-463: The contrary, if the astronomically massive, the feather-light, and the extremely fast are removed from Einstein's theories – all phenomena Newton could not have observed – Newton's equations are what remain. Einstein's theories are expansions and refinements of Newton's theories and, thus, increase confidence in Newton's work. An iterative, pragmatic scheme of the four points above is sometimes offered as

9563-535: The costs of being wrong, rather than investigating in a neutral, scientific way. Flawed decisions due to confirmation bias have been found in a wide range of political, organizational, financial and scientific contexts. These biases contribute to overconfidence in personal beliefs and can maintain or strengthen beliefs in the face of contrary evidence. For example, confirmation bias produces systematic errors in scientific research based on inductive reasoning (the gradual accumulation of supportive evidence). Similarly,

9694-553: The cycle described below. The scientific method is an iterative, cyclical process through which information is continually revised. It is generally recognized to develop advances in knowledge through the following elements, in varying combinations or contributions: Each element of the scientific method is subject to peer review for possible mistakes. These activities do not describe all that scientists do but apply mostly to experimental sciences (e.g., physics, chemistry, biology, and psychology). The elements above are often taught in

9825-508: The desirability of the conclusion, people demand a high standard of evidence for unpalatable ideas and a low standard for preferred ideas. In other words, they ask, "Can I believe this?" for some suggestions and, "Must I believe this?" for others. Although consistency is a desirable feature of attitudes, an excessive drive for consistency is another potential source of bias because it may prevent people from neutrally evaluating new, surprising information. Social psychologist Ziva Kunda combines

9956-465: The different responses to the statements were not due to passive reasoning errors. Instead, the participants were actively reducing the cognitive dissonance induced by reading about their favored candidate's irrational or hypocritical behavior. Biases in belief interpretation are persistent, regardless of intelligence level. Participants in an experiment took the SAT test (a college admissions test used in

10087-577: The difficult or impossible task of working out how diagnostic each possible question will be. However, it is not universally reliable, so people can overlook challenges to their existing beliefs. Motivational explanations involve an effect of desire on belief . It is known that people prefer positive thoughts over negative ones in a number of ways: this is called the " Pollyanna principle ". Applied to arguments or sources of evidence , this could explain why desired conclusions are more likely to be believed true. According to experiments that manipulate

10218-552: The educational system as "the scientific method". The scientific method is not a single recipe: it requires intelligence, imagination, and creativity. In this sense, it is not a mindless set of standards and procedures to follow but is rather an ongoing cycle , constantly developing more useful, accurate, and comprehensive models and methods. For example, when Einstein developed the Special and General Theories of Relativity, he did not in any way refute or discount Newton's Principia . On

10349-450: The effect of supporting the researcher's conclusions. This is a form of bias that is difficult to quantify. Some scientific journals have begun to set detailed standards for what types of image processing are allowed in research results. Computerized instruments often keep a copy of the "raw data" from sensors before processing, which is the ultimate defense against processing bias, and similarly, scientific standards require preservation of

10480-402: The essential structure of DNA by concrete modeling of the physical shapes of the nucleotides which comprise it. They were guided by the bond lengths which had been deduced by Linus Pauling and by Rosalind Franklin 's X-ray diffraction images. The scientific method is iterative. At any stage, it is possible to refine its accuracy and precision , so that some consideration will lead

10611-443: The evidence provided, pointing to details that supported their viewpoint and disregarding anything contrary. Participants described studies supporting their pre-existing view as superior to those that contradicted it, in detailed and specific ways. Writing about a study that seemed to undermine the deterrence effect, a death penalty proponent wrote, "The research didn't cover a long enough period of time," while an opponent's comment on

10742-480: The experiment. In light of this and other critiques, the focus of research moved away from confirmation versus falsification of an hypothesis, to examining whether people test hypotheses in an informative way, or an uninformative but positive way. The search for "true" confirmation bias led psychologists to look at a wider range of effects in how people process information. There are currently three main information processing explanations of confirmation bias, plus

10873-448: The experimental method, the hypothesis, or the definition of the subject. This manner of iteration can span decades and sometimes centuries. Published papers can be built upon. For example: By 1027, Alhazen , based on his measurements of the refraction of light, was able to deduce that outer space was less dense than air , that is: "the body of the heavens is rarer than the body of air". In 1079 Ibn Mu'adh 's Treatise On Twilight

11004-632: The experimental results supported the existence of ESP, while the others were told they did not. In a subsequent test, participants recalled the material accurately, apart from believers who had read the non-supportive evidence. This group remembered significantly less information and some of them incorrectly remembered the results as supporting ESP. Myside bias was once believed to be correlated with intelligence; however, studies have shown that myside bias can be more influenced by ability to rationally think as opposed to level of intelligence. Myside bias can cause an inability to effectively and logically evaluate

11135-417: The friendship. Overestimating the friend's honesty may also be costly, but less so. In this case, it would be rational to seek, evaluate or remember evidence of their honesty in a biased way. When someone gives an initial impression of being introverted or extroverted, questions that match that impression come across as more empathic . This suggests that when talking to someone who seems to be an introvert, it

11266-468: The future, a new technique may allow for an experimental test and the speculation would then become part of accepted science. For example, Einstein's theory of general relativity makes several specific predictions about the observable structure of spacetime , such as that light bends in a gravitational field , and that the amount of bending depends in a precise way on the strength of that gravitational field. Arthur Eddington 's observations made during

11397-427: The human senses, and particularly with computerized instruments, there is sometimes a question as to where in the data processing chain "observing" ends and "drawing conclusions" begins. This has recently become an issue with digitally enhanced images published as experimental data in papers in scientific journals . The images are enhanced to bring out features that the researcher wants to emphasize, but this also has

11528-442: The hypothesis based on the results. Although procedures vary between fields , the underlying process is often similar. In more detail: the scientific method involves making conjectures (hypothetical explanations), predicting the logical consequences of hypothesis, then carrying out experiments or empirical observations based on those predictions. A hypothesis is a conjecture based on knowledge obtained while seeking answers to

11659-488: The interviewee was described as extroverted, almost all the questions presumed extroversion, such as, "What would you do to liven up a dull party?" These loaded questions gave the interviewees little or no opportunity to falsify the hypothesis about them. A later version of the experiment gave the participants less presumptive questions to choose from, such as, "Do you shy away from social interactions?" Participants preferred to ask these more diagnostic questions, showing only

11790-892: The like". He wrote: The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion ... draws all things else to support and agree with it. And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects or despises, or else by some distinction sets aside or rejects[.] In the second volume of his The World as Will and Representation (1844), German philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer observed that "An adopted hypothesis gives us lynx-eyes for everything that confirms it and makes us blind to everything that contradicts it." In his essay (1897) What Is Art? , Russian novelist Leo Tolstoy wrote: I know that most men—not only those considered clever, but even those who are very clever, and capable of understanding most difficult scientific, mathematical, or philosophic problems—can very seldom discern even

11921-526: The means for determining length . These ideas were skipped over by Isaac Newton with, "I do not define time , space, place and motion , as being well known to all." Einstein's paper then demonstrates that they (viz., absolute time and length independent of motion) were approximations. Francis Crick cautions us that when characterizing a subject, however, it can be premature to define something when it remains ill-understood. In Crick's study of consciousness , he actually found it easier to study awareness in

12052-528: The mechanism of storing genetic information (i.e., genes) in DNA was unclear. Researchers in Bragg's laboratory at Cambridge University made X-ray diffraction pictures of various molecules , starting with crystals of salt , and proceeding to more complicated substances. Using clues painstakingly assembled over decades, beginning with its chemical composition, it was determined that it should be possible to characterize

12183-432: The mind makes up to fit the model; this is called reconstructive memory . How much attention the various perceived data are given depends on an internal value system, which judges how important it is to the individual. Thus two people can view the same event and come away with entirely different perceptions of it, even disagreeing about simple facts. This is why eyewitness testimony is notoriously unreliable. Several of

12314-454: The more important ways observations can be affected by human psychology are given below. Human observations are biased toward confirming the observer's conscious and unconscious expectations and view of the world; we " see what we expect to see ". In psychology, this is called confirmation bias . Since the object of scientific research is the discovery of new phenomena, this bias can and has caused new discoveries to be overlooked; one example

12445-456: The most costly errors. For example, employers might ask one-sided questions in job interviews because they are focused on weeding out unsuitable candidates. Yaacov Trope and Akiva Liberman's refinement of this theory assumes that people compare the two different kinds of error: accepting a false hypothesis or rejecting a true hypothesis. For instance, someone who underestimates a friend's honesty might treat him or her suspiciously and so undermine

12576-404: The most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him. In Peter Wason's initial experiment published in 1960 (which does not mention the term "confirmation bias"), he repeatedly challenged participants to identify

12707-560: The observation is counted. Measurement reduces an observation to a number that can be recorded, and two observations which result in the same number are equal within the resolution of the process. Human senses are limited and subject to errors in perception, such as optical illusions . Scientific instruments were developed to aid human abilities of observation, such as weighing scales , clocks , telescopes , microscopes , thermometers , cameras , and tape recorders , and also translate into perceptible form events that are unobservable by

12838-480: The opposite side of an argument. Studies have stated that myside bias is an absence of "active open-mindedness", meaning the active search for why an initial idea may be wrong. Typically, myside bias is operationalized in empirical studies as the quantity of evidence used in support of their side in comparison to the opposite side. A study has found individual differences in myside bias. This study investigates individual differences that are acquired through learning in

12969-405: The original conjecture was correct. However, there are difficulties in a formulaic statement of method. Though the scientific method is often presented as a fixed sequence of steps, these actions are more accurately general principles. Not all steps take place in every scientific inquiry (nor to the same degree), and they are not always done in the same order. There are different ways of outlining

13100-541: The original unenhanced "raw" versions of images used as research data. In Cosmology the origins of observation are related with the origins of evolutions in our cosmos. Process philosophy is the changing relationships of our senses , minds and experiences to ourselves . "Observe always that everything is the result of a change, and get used to thinking that there is nothing Nature loves so well as to change existing forms and to make new ones like them." Scientific method The scientific method

13231-431: The outcome of the investigation. The systematic, careful collection of measurements or counts of relevant quantities is often the critical difference between pseudo-sciences , such as alchemy, and science, such as chemistry or biology. Scientific measurements are usually tabulated, graphed, or mapped, and statistical manipulations, such as correlation and regression , performed on them. The measurements might be made in

13362-403: The part of those experimenting. Detailed record-keeping is essential, to aid in recording and reporting on the experimental results, and supports the effectiveness and integrity of the procedure. They will also assist in reproducing the experimental results, likely by others. Traces of this approach can be seen in the work of Hipparchus (190–120 BCE), when determining a value for the precession of

13493-566: The person's prior beliefs. Thus a scientific test of a hypothesis is one that is expected to produce the most information. Since the information content depends on initial probabilities, a positive test can either be highly informative or uninformative. Klayman and Ha argued that when people think about realistic problems, they are looking for a specific answer with a small initial probability. In this case, positive tests are usually more informative than negative tests. However, in Wason's rule discovery task

13624-403: The pertinent properties of the subjects, careful thought may also entail some definitions and observations ; these observations often demand careful measurements and/or counting can take the form of expansive empirical research . A scientific question can refer to the explanation of a specific observation , as in "Why is the sky blue?" but can also be open-ended, as in "How can I design

13755-528: The physical structure of DNA, and the X-ray images would be the vehicle. The scientific method depends upon increasingly sophisticated characterizations of the subjects of investigation. (The subjects can also be called unsolved problems or the unknowns .) For example, Benjamin Franklin conjectured, correctly, that St. Elmo's fire was electrical in nature , but it has taken a long series of experiments and theoretical changes to establish this. While seeking

13886-424: The process at any stage. They might adopt the characterization and formulate their own hypothesis, or they might adopt the hypothesis and deduce their own predictions. Often the experiment is not done by the person who made the prediction, and the characterization is based on experiments done by someone else. Published results of experiments can also serve as a hypothesis predicting their own reproducibility. Science

14017-486: The question. Hypotheses can be very specific or broad but must be falsifiable , implying that it is possible to identify a possible outcome of an experiment or observation that conflicts with predictions deduced from the hypothesis; otherwise, the hypothesis cannot be meaningfully tested. While the scientific method is often presented as a fixed sequence of steps, it actually represents a set of general principles. Not all steps take place in every scientific inquiry (nor to

14148-433: The results of his selection task experiment. Participants repeatedly performed badly on various forms of this test, in most cases ignoring information that could potentially refute (falsify) the specified rule. Klayman and Ha's 1987 paper argues that the Wason experiments do not actually demonstrate a bias towards confirmation, but instead a tendency to make tests consistent with the working hypothesis. They called this

14279-410: The results of observation differ depending on factors that are not important in everyday observation. These are usually illustrated with apparent " paradoxes " in which an event appears different when observed from two different points of view, seeming to violate "common sense". The human senses do not function like a video camcorder , impartially recording all observations. Human perception occurs by

14410-402: The rule was, "Each number is two greater than its predecessor," they would offer a triple that fitted (confirmed) this rule, such as (11,13,15) rather than a triple that violated (falsified) it, such as (11,12,19). Wason interpreted his results as showing a preference for confirmation over falsification, hence he coined the term "confirmation bias". Wason also used confirmation bias to explain

14541-433: The same degree), and they are not always in the same order. Numerous discoveries have not followed the textbook model of the scientific method and chance has played a role, for instance. The history of scientific method considers changes in the methodology of scientific inquiry, not the history of science itself. The development of rules for scientific reasoning has not been straightforward; scientific method has been

14672-471: The same study said, "No strong evidence to contradict the researchers has been presented." The results illustrated that people set higher standards of evidence for hypotheses that go against their current expectations. This effect, known as "disconfirmation bias", has been supported by other experiments. Another study of biased interpretation occurred during the 2004 U.S. presidential election and involved participants who reported having strong feelings about

14803-625: The same tests. Some of the participants were taught proper hypothesis-testing, but these instructions had almost no effect. Smart people believe weird things because they are skilled at defending beliefs they arrived at for non-smart reasons. Confirmation biases are not limited to the collection of evidence. Even if two individuals have the same information, the way they interpret it can be biased. A team at Stanford University conducted an experiment involving participants who felt strongly about capital punishment, with half in favor and half against it. Each participant read descriptions of two studies:

14934-461: The same. We vary the conditions for the acts of measurement, to help isolate what has changed. Mill's canons can then help us figure out what the important factor is. Factor analysis is one technique for discovering the important factor in an effect. Depending on the predictions, the experiments can have different shapes. It could be a classical experiment in a laboratory setting, a double-blind study or an archaeological excavation . Even taking

15065-422: The scientific method are illustrated by the following example (which occurred from 1944 to 1953) from the discovery of the structure of DNA (marked with [REDACTED] and indented). [REDACTED] In 1950, it was known that genetic inheritance had a mathematical description, starting with the studies of Gregor Mendel , and that DNA contained genetic information (Oswald Avery's transforming principle ). But

15196-413: The scientist to repeat an earlier part of the process. Failure to develop an interesting hypothesis may lead a scientist to re-define the subject under consideration. Failure of a hypothesis to produce interesting and testable predictions may lead to reconsideration of the hypothesis or of the definition of the subject. Failure of an experiment to produce interesting results may lead a scientist to reconsider

15327-409: The senses, such as indicator dyes , voltmeters , spectrometers , infrared cameras , oscilloscopes , interferometers , Geiger counters , and radio receivers . One problem encountered throughout scientific fields is that the observation may affect the process being observed, resulting in a different outcome than if the process was unobserved. This is called the observer effect . For example, it

15458-451: The simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as to oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions they have formed, perhaps with much difficulty—conclusions of which they are proud, which they have taught to others, and on which they have built their lives. In his essay (1894) The Kingdom of God Is Within You , Tolstoy had earlier written: The most difficult subjects can be explained to

15589-411: The specific pairing we have postulated immediately suggests a possible copying mechanism for the genetic material". Any useful hypothesis will enable predictions , by reasoning including deductive reasoning . It might predict the outcome of an experiment in a laboratory setting or the observation of a phenomenon in nature. The prediction can also be statistical and deal only with probabilities. It

15720-478: The studies were fictional. Half the participants were told that one kind of study supported the deterrent effect and the other undermined it, while for other participants the conclusions were swapped. The participants, whether supporters or opponents, reported shifting their attitudes slightly in the direction of the first study they read. Once they read the more detailed descriptions of the two studies, they almost all returned to their original belief regardless of

15851-460: The subject of intense and recurring debate throughout the history of science, and eminent natural philosophers and scientists have argued for the primacy of various approaches to establishing scientific knowledge. Different early expressions of empiricism and the scientific method can be found throughout history, for instance with the ancient Stoics , Epicurus , Alhazen , Avicenna , Al-Biruni , Roger Bacon , and William of Ockham . In

15982-582: The title of Against Method , accepted certain rules of method and attempted to justify those rules with a meta methodology. Staddon (2017) argues it is a mistake to try following rules in the absence of an algorithmic scientific method; in that case, "science is best understood through examples". But algorithmic methods, such as disproof of existing theory by experiment have been used since Alhacen (1027) and his Book of Optics , and Galileo (1638) and his Two New Sciences , and The Assayer , which still stand as scientific method. The scientific method

16113-416: The twentieth century; Dewey's 1910 book , How We Think , inspired popular guidelines , appearing in dictionaries and science textbooks, although there was little consensus over its meaning. Although there was growth through the middle of the twentieth century, by the 1960s and 1970s numerous influential philosophers of science such as Thomas Kuhn and Paul Feyerabend had questioned the universality of

16244-711: The verdict one week, two months, and one year after the trial. Results indicated that participants' assessments for Simpson's guilt changed over time. The more that participants' opinion of the verdict had changed, the less stable were the participant's memories regarding their initial emotional reactions. When participants recalled their initial emotional reactions two months and a year later, past appraisals closely resembled current appraisals of emotion. People demonstrate sizable myside bias when discussing their opinions on controversial topics. Memory recall and construction of experiences undergo revision in relation to corresponding emotional states. Myside bias has been shown to influence

16375-434: The work of Cochran, Crick and Vand (and independently by Stokes). The Cochran-Crick-Vand-Stokes theorem provided a mathematical explanation for the empirical observation that diffraction from helical structures produces x-shaped patterns. In their first paper, Watson and Crick also noted that the double helix structure they proposed provided a simple mechanism for DNA replication , writing, "It has not escaped our notice that

16506-406: The wrong side, and then affection for one's own opinion binds, confines the mind". Ibn Khaldun noticed the same effect in his Muqaddimah : Untruth naturally afflicts historical information. There are various reasons that make this unavoidable. One of them is partisanship for opinions and schools. ... if the soul is infected with partisanship for a particular opinion or sect, it accepts without

16637-405: Was able to infer that Earth's atmosphere was 50 miles thick, based on atmospheric refraction of the sun's rays. This is why the scientific method is often represented as circular – new information leads to new characterisations, and the cycle of science continues. Measurements collected can be archived , passed onwards and used by others. Other scientists may start their own research and enter

16768-409: Was also considered by Francis Crick and James D. Watson but discarded. When Watson and Crick learned of Pauling's hypothesis, they understood from existing data that Pauling was wrong. and that Pauling would soon admit his difficulties with that structure. A hypothesis is a suggested explanation of a phenomenon, or alternately a reasoned proposal suggesting a possible correlation between or among

16899-406: Was developed to allow recording and comparison of observations made at different times and places, by different people. The measurement consists of using observation to compare the phenomenon being observed to a standard unit . The standard unit can be an artifact, process, or definition which can be duplicated or shared by all observers. In measurement, the number of standard units which is equal to

17030-459: Was highly correlated with their current level of grief. Individuals appear to utilize their current emotional states to analyze how they must have felt when experiencing past events. Emotional memories are reconstructed by current emotional states. One study showed how selective memory can maintain belief in extrasensory perception (ESP). Believers and disbelievers were each shown descriptions of ESP experiments. Half of each group were told that

17161-587: Was particular development aided by theoretical works by a skeptic Francisco Sanches , by idealists as well as empiricists John Locke , George Berkeley , and David Hume . C. S. Peirce formulated the hypothetico-deductive model in the 20th century, and the model has undergone significant revision since. The term "scientific method" emerged in the 19th century, as a result of significant institutional development of science, and terminologies establishing clear boundaries between science and non-science, such as "scientist" and "pseudoscience", appearing. Throughout

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