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Ishiguro Storm Surge Computer

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The Ishiguro Storm Surge Machine is an analogue computer built by Japanese oceanographer Shizuo Ishiguro . Between 1960 and 1983, it was used to model storm surges in the North Sea by the UK National Institute of Oceanography. It is now on display in the Mathematics Gallery of the Science Museum in London.

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45-636: Following the serious North Sea flood of 1953 , the UK government set up a committee (known as the Waverley Committee) to develop a plan to prevent future disasters. The UK National Institute of Oceanography (NIO, now the National Oceanography Centre ) was responsible for scientific investigation of storm surges in the UK.  In 1957 Shizuo Ishiguro , a Japanese oceanographer who had been developing analogue methods for predicting ocean surges joined

90-399: A house across the road to safety, then continuing rescue work for hours until he found a working telephone to call for help. Deptford was off-duty at his son's party when the wall of water hit. He realised that elderly people were vulnerable as the sea wall was breached and he dragged and carried many to safety. At one house he found a bedridden elderly couple with their middle-aged daughter; in

135-583: A storm surge, typically approaching from the North, might move southwards across the North Sea. It predicts water flow and height at different locations and times allowing assessment of the maximum tidal height and the time at which the maximum might be expected at specific locations. A common use of the model was to investigate the need for sea walls and coastal defences . A film made by the NIO showing Ishiguro's explanation of

180-627: The Moray Firth , was abandoned by many, as large structures were swept into the sea. The surge raced down the east coast into the mid-to-southern North Sea, where it was amplified by shallower waters. Canvey Island in Essex was inundated, with the loss of 58 lives. Some 41 people died at Felixstowe in Suffolk when wooden prefabricated homes in the West End area of the town were flooded. Another 37 died when

225-745: The United Kingdom and the Netherlands , where the sea shallows and is funnelled toward the English Channel . Storm tides are a regular occurrence in the North Sea basin ; several form each year. Although most do not cause significant damage, the impact of some has been devastating. During one, the February flood of 1825 , the Danish coastline changed, as the North Jutlandic Island became separated from

270-646: The Wilhelmus , after which broadcasts ceased for the evening, as was standard in the Netherlands at the time. As a result, the warnings of the KNMI did not penetrate the flood-threatened area in time. People were unable to prepare for the impending flood. The disaster struck on a Saturday night, and hence many government and emergency offices in the affected area were not staffed. As telephone and telegraph networks were disrupted by flood damage, amateur radio operators went into

315-405: The emergency evacuation of 70,000 more. Floods covered 9% of Dutch farmland , and sea water flooded 1,365 km (527 sq mi) of land. An estimated 30,000 animals drowned, and 47,300 buildings were damaged, of which 10,000 had to be demolished (or were swept away). The total damage is estimated at 1 billion Dutch guilders . The Schielands Hoge Zeedijk (Schielands High Seadyke) along

360-620: The 58 people who lost their lives on the island. The Watersnoodmuseum or Flood Museum in Ouwerkerk, Netherlands opened in 2001 as the "National Knowledge and Remembrance Centre for the Floods of 1953". Storm tide of the North Sea Storm tides of the North Sea are coastal floods associated with extratropical cyclones crossing over the North Sea , the severity of which is affected by

405-457: The NIO to apply his work to the North Sea. Initially, this was through a UNESCO fellowship but he later became a permanent employee of the NIO. Ishiguro continued to develop and apply his analogue model until the early 1980s, when improvements in digital computers led many oceanographers to favour numerical simulations. Ishiguro retired in 1983 but continued to work on his machine at home until his death in 2007.  Ishiguro's storm surge computer

450-545: The North of West Flanders , Belgium. More than 230 deaths occurred on seacraft along Northern European coasts as well as on ships in deeper waters of the North Sea. The Stranraer-Larne car ferry MV Princess Victoria sank in the North Channel east of Larne with 134 fatalities, and many fishing trawlers sank. Nine small vessels foundered in the seas around the British Isles with the loss of all hands; these included

495-645: The Swedish steamer Aspo (22 crew lost), the British steamer Yewvalley (12 crew lost), the British trawlers Sheldon (14 crew lost), Michael Griffith (13 crew lost) and Guava (eleven crew lost), the Dutch motor vessels Salland (nine crew lost) and Westland (eight crew lost), the Dutch trawler Catharina Duyvis (16 crew lost), and the Belgian trawler Leopold Nera (five crew lost). From midday on 31 January 1953, water

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540-443: The UK or the "Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricane " model used by US agencies. North Sea flood of 1953 The 1953 North Sea flood ( Dutch : Watersnoodramp ) was a major flood caused by a heavy storm surge that struck the Netherlands , north-west Belgium , England and Scotland . Most sea defences facing the surge were overwhelmed, resulting in extensive flooding. The storm and flooding occurred during

585-681: The United Kingdom carried out large studies on strengthening of coastal defences. The Netherlands developed the Delta Works , an extensive system of dams and storm surge barriers . The UK constructed storm surge barriers on the Thames Estuary and on the Hull where it meets the Humber Estuary . At the time of the flood, 20% of the land of the Netherlands was below mean sea level (subsequently with

630-414: The affected areas with their equipment to form a voluntary emergency radio network. These radio amateurs provided radio communications for 10 days and nights, and were the only people able to maintain contact from affected areas with the outside world. The Zeeland dykes were breached in 67 locations. Large parts of South Holland, Zeeland and North Brabant were inundated. In North Holland only one polder

675-533: The computer is in the archives of the National Oceanography Centre at the University of Southampton . The physical structure of the computer comprises two panels containing the electrical grid used for the simulation, and a separate input/output section.  Inputs were made using a Commodore CBM 8032 Computer with 5¼" floppy disk drives; the output was displayed on an Advance Instruments OS-240 oscilloscope and recorded photographically. Digital computers (where

720-591: The dead during the Herdenking Watersnoodramp on 1 February. Rijkswaterstaat had warned about the risk of a flood. At the time of the flood, none of the local radio stations broadcast at night, and many of the smaller weather stations also only operated during the day. The following broadcast from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) was made at 6.15pm (18:15) on 31 January 1953 on Hilversum Radio : Over

765-540: The deep polder. In desperation, the mayor of Nieuwerkerk commandeered the river ship de Twee Gebroeders ( The Two Brothers ) and ordered the owner to plug the hole in the dyke by navigating the ship into it. Fearing that the ship might break through into the polder , Captain Arie Evegroen took a row boat with him. The mayor's plan was successful, as the ship was lodged firmly into the dyke, reinforcing it against failure and saving many lives. The Afsluitdijk across

810-638: The disaster area. Tens of thousands of residents were being evacuated from the area to shelters elsewhere in the country. Foreign helicopters and amphibious vehicles also came into action on Tuesday, but the vast majority of rescue operations had already been completed by then. Donations and relief supplies were pouring in at the National Disaster Fund in The Hague. Other countries, including England, Sweden and Canada, sent more than 61 million guilders in relief supplies. Many people still commemorate

855-532: The entrance of the Zuiderzee was said to have paid for its construction cost in that one night, by preventing destructive flooding around the three great meers that used to be the Zuiderzee. Several neighbouring countries sent soldiers to assist in searching for bodies and rescuing people. The United States Army sent helicopters from Germany to rescue people from rooftops. Queen Juliana and Princess Beatrix visited

900-471: The equations of flow are solved numerically) were available in the 1960s but Ishiguro argued that the analogue approach was more flexible and avoided the computational problems of working with discrete time steps. Subsequent improvements in electronic computers means that numerical modelling is now more commonly used than analogue modelling; modern examples include the National Tidal and Sea-level Facility in

945-566: The expansion of Flevoland this proportion has increased), and the next-highest 30% sat at less than 1 metre (3.3 ft) above sea level. Such land relies heavily on sea defences and was worst affected, recording 1,836 deaths and widespread damage. Most of the casualties occurred in the province of Zeeland . In England, 307 people were killed in the counties of Lincolnshire , Norfolk , Suffolk and Essex . Nineteen were killed in Eastern Scotland. Twenty-eight people were killed in

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990-511: The first to sail deep into the disaster area to save hundreds of people. Rescue operations from the air were hardly possible: the Netherlands had only 1 helicopter and had to wait until other countries offered help. On Tuesday 3 February, a large flow of people and relief supplies started. Planes dropped sandbags, dinghies , boots, food and water over the disaster area. At the same time, thousands of Dutch soldiers, administrators, aid workers and volunteers arrived to carry out coordinated actions in

1035-504: The flood reached a second high. The water rose even higher than during the first flood, and more dykes broke. Many people who had survived the first flood died, as the houses whose rooftops they had sheltered on collapsed due to the persistent water pressure. At that time, the government did not yet know that Schouwen-Duiveland , Goeree-Overflakkee and Tholen were almost completely under water, and no large-scale rescue operations had yet taken place. Only on Monday 2 February were fishermen

1080-488: The flooded area only a few days after. A large aid program, the National Relief Fund, was launched, and soldiers raised funds by selling pea-soup door to door. Internationally, 100,000 commemorative postcards, featuring an illustration by Eppo Doeve , were sold. A national donation program was started and there was a large amount of international aid. The Red Cross was overwhelmed by contributions, and diverted some of

1125-499: The funds to assist residents of Third World countries. It was found that the flooding could have been 4 feet (1.2 m) higher; the Rijkswaterstaat's plan concerning the protection and strengthening of the dikes was accepted. As a result, authorization was granted for the Delta Works , an elaborate project to enable emergency closing of the mouths of most estuaries , to prevent flood surges upriver. The North Sea flood of 1953

1170-529: The islands of Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee . 305 people drowned in the village of Oude-Tonge . 20-year-old Jos de Boet from Oude-Tonge lost 42 family members in the disaster. 200,000 animals died, 3,500 houses and farms were lost in the flood, and another 43,000 were severely damaged. Afterwards, the government formed the Delta Commission to study the causes and effects of the floods. They estimated that flooding killed 1,835 people and forced

1215-678: The level of the flood water was installed by the Leigh Society on the wall of the Heritage Centre in Leigh-on-Sea to commemorate the flooding there. There is also a blue plaque marking the height of the flood water at Sutton-on-Sea in Lincolnshire . In 2011 58 years after the flood, a service of remembrance was held outside the library on Canvey Island in Essex to unveil a plaque commemorating

1260-404: The most devastating storm to affect Scotland for 500 years, the surge crossed between Orkney and Shetland . The storm generated coastal and inland hazards, including flooding, erosion, destruction of coastal defences, and widespread wind damage. Damage occurred throughout the country, with 19 fatalities reported. The fishing village of Crovie , Banffshire , built on a narrow strip of land along

1305-539: The mouth of the Roding , was wholly flooded by the sea surge and later demolished. Residents were relocated elsewhere in Barking . The total death toll on land in the UK is estimated at 307. The total death toll at sea for the UK, including the 135 lost in the sinking of MV  Princess Victoria , is estimated at 224. The coastal defences of Flanders were severely damaged. Near Ostend , Knokke and Antwerp , heavy damage

1350-400: The night of Saturday, 31 January to the morning of 1 February, 1953. A combination of a high spring tide and a severe European windstorm caused a storm tide of the North Sea . The combination of wind, high tide, and low pressure caused the sea to flood land up to 5.6 metres (18 ft 4 in) above mean sea level. Realising that such infrequent events could reoccur, the Netherlands and

1395-778: The nodes represents the flow of water between different points of the North Sea. The flow of water between points in the North Sea depends on the difference in water height, on fixed physical features such as coastlines and sea depth, on the Coriolis force (due to the Earth's rotation) and on time-dependent effects such as tidal forces (due to the gravitational effect of the Moon and the Sun ). The model mimics these using combinations of electrical components (resistors, capacitors, inductors) and signal generators to provide time-dependent inputs. The model simulates how

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1440-435: The northern and western parts of the North Sea, a strong gale rages between northwest and west. The storm field is extending further. It is expected that the storm will continue for the whole night, and given this fact, this afternoon at 5.30pm the areas of Rotterdam , Willemstad and Bergen op Zoom have been warned for dangerous high water. Another warning was broadcast shortly before midnight on 31 January 1953, followed by

1485-515: The river Hollandse IJssel was all that protected three million people in the provinces of North and South Holland from flooding. A section of this dyke, known as the Groenendijk, was not reinforced with stone revetments . The water level was just below the crest and the seaward slope was weak. Volunteers worked to reinforce this stretch. However, the Groenendijk began to collapse under the pressure around 5:30 am on 1 February. Seawater flooded into

1530-634: The rivers Rhine , Meuse and Scheldt . The system was completed in 1998, with completion of the storm surge barrier Maeslantkering in the Nieuwe Waterweg , near Rotterdam . In the UK, the Permanent Secretary to the Home Office , Sir Frank Newsam , coordinated the immediate efforts to defend homes, save lives and recover after the floods. After the flooding, the government made major investments in new sea defences. The Thames Barrier programme

1575-424: The seafront village of Jaywick near Clacton was flooded. In Lincolnshire, flooding occurred from Mablethorpe to Skegness , reaching 3 kilometres (2 miles) inland. Police Officers Charles Lewis and Leonard Deptford received George Medals for their part in rescue work. Lewis leapt from a police station upper window to save an elderly couple being swept away in 3 feet (1 m) of floodwater, carrying them to

1620-469: The shallowness of the sea and the orientation of the shoreline relative to the storm's path, as well as the timing of tides . The water level can rise to more than 5 metres (17 ft) above the normal tide as a result of storm tides . Northern Germany and Denmark are particularly susceptible to storm tides. The coastline of the German Bight forms an L-shape facing northwest. Also vulnerable are

1665-532: The waist-high floodwater, he lashed together oil cans to make a raft, to which he tied the couple and pulled them to safety. He carried on into daylight, his last rescue being a dog. Reis Leming , a US airman, and USAF Staff Sergeant Freeman A Kilpatrick were also awarded the George Medal for rescuing respectively 27 and 18 people at South Beach, Hunstanton . At Salthouse the Victorian Randall's Folly

1710-651: Was badly damaged, resulting in its subsequent demolition. In south-west Essex , water overspilled the Royal Docks into Silvertown , where it drained into the sewers but flooded back in Canning Town and Tidal Basin. William Hayward, a night watchman at William Ritchie & Son, died of exposure to gas from a damaged pipe – the only fatality in London. Almost 200 people were homeless and took refuge at Canning Town Public Hall. The village of Creekmouth on Barking Creek ,

1755-409: Was done to the sea defence with local breaches. Twenty-eight people died. After the 1953 flood, governments realised that similar infrequent but devastating events were possible in the future. In the Netherlands the government conceived and constructed an ambitious flood defence system beginning in the 1960s. Called the Delta Works ( Dutch : Deltawerken ), it is designed to protect the estuaries of

1800-570: Was driven from the Northern reaches of the North Sea between Norway and Scotland by a strong North-West gale. A storm surge developed along the coast of the Netherlands, which coincided with a high spring tide , leading to many water levels on the Dutch coast on the morning of 1 February 1953 being higher than any previous recorded figures, particularly in the South-Western areas of the country. At 10:30 p.m. on Saturday evening 31 January, it

1845-549: Was flooded. The most extensive flooding occurred on the islands of Schouwen-Duiveland , Tholen , Sint Philipsland , Goeree-Overflakkee , the Hoeksche Waard , Voorne-Putten and Alblasserwaard . Parts of the islands of Zuid-Beveland , Noord-Beveland , IJsselmonde , Pernis , Rozenburg , Walcheren and Land van Altena were flooded, as well as parts of the areas around Willemstad , Nieuw-Vossemeer and parts of Zeelandic Flanders . The highest death tolls were recorded on

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1890-402: Was low tide. But, this time, the water remained high. The strength of the hurricane had broken the tidal movement. On the night of 1 February 1953 around 3 a.m., many dykes in the province of Zeeland and adjacent areas of South Holland and North Brabant proved unable to resist the floodwaters. On both islands and mainland, large areas of the country were flooded. At 4 p.m. on 1 February,

1935-593: Was started to secure Central London against a future storm surge; the Barrier was officially opened on 8 May 1984. A range of flood defence measures were initiated around the UK coast. In 2013 a service was held at Chelmsford Cathedral to mark the 60th anniversary of the Great Flood, attended by Anne, Princess Royal . Acts of remembrance were also held in Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex. A blue plaque marking

1980-502: Was the worst flood of the 20th century in England and Scotland . Over 1,600 km (990 mi) of coastline was damaged, and sea walls were breached in 1,200 places, inundating 160,000 acres (65,000 ha; 250 sq mi). Flooding forced over 30,000 people from their homes, and 24,000 properties were greatly damaged. The damage is estimated as £50 million at 1953 prices, approximately £1.2 billion at 2013 prices. Probably

2025-522: Was then acquired by the Science Museum, London where it is part of a display in the Mathematics Gallery about modelling the seas. Ishiguro’s machine is an analogue computer where electrical voltage and current are used to mimic the height and flow of water. The North Sea is represented as a grid with approximately 80 nodes which are connected electrically so that the flow of electricity between

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