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15-903: ICEWS was a DARPA program conceived and led by Dr. Sean P. O'Brien that launched in 2008. In March 2010, O'Brien authored an article that compared ICEWS with past efforts in the realm, including systems designed by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita . According to the paper, the first of three phases of the ICEWS involved a competition between different groups to successfully predict events of interest based on historical data. The winning team, Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Laboratories , combined six different conflict modeling systems, including agent-based models such as Barry Silverman's Factionalism and Ian Lustick 's Political Science-Identity (PSI) computational modeling platforms, logistic regression models such as those developed by Philip A. Schrodt and

30-435: A Tyrant . He is the author of many books, including The Dictator's Handbook , co-authored with Alastair Smith , and the book The Invention of Power (January 2022). Into the early 2000s, Bueno de Mesquita was known for his development of an expected utility model (EUM) capable of predicting the outcome of policy events over a unidimensional policy space. His EUM used Duncan Black 's median voter theorem to calculate

45-641: A degree in economics and politics which he finished with first class honours in 1932. He started teaching at the newly formed Dundee School of Economics (later part of the University of Dundee ). There Black was influenced by his colleague Ronald Coase , originator of the Theory of the Firm . He later taught at the University College of North Wales (now Bangor University ) and Glasgow. Black also had visiting positions in

60-591: A greatly generalized version of the 2-player game in War and Reason . This model predicts significantly more accurately and does a substantially better job of identifying opportunities that players have to improve the outcome by exploiting uncertainties. This model is documented in A New Model for Predicting Policy Choices: Preliminary Tests , and discussed and applied to examples in The Predictioneer's Game . Bueno de Mesquita's forecasting model have greatly contributed to

75-464: Is a political scientist , professor at New York University , and senior fellow at Stanford University 's Hoover Institution . Bueno de Mesquita graduated from Stuyvesant High School in 1963, (along with Richard Axel and Alexander Rosenberg ), earned his BA degree from Queens College, New York in 1967 and then his MA and PhD from the University of Michigan . He specializes in international relations , foreign policy , and nation building . He

90-476: Is a political scientist currently serving as dean of the Harris School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago . Duncan Black Duncan Black , FBA (23 May 1908 – 14 January 1991) was a Scottish economist who laid the foundations of social choice theory . In particular he was responsible for unearthing the work of many early political scientists , including Charles Lutwidge Dodgson , and

105-417: Is one of the originators of selectorate theory , and was also the director of New York University 's Alexander Hamilton Center for Political Economy from 2006 to 2016. He was a founding partner at Mesquita & Roundell, until that company merged with his other company, Selectors, LLC, that used the selectorate model for macro-level policy analysis. Now, the company is called Selectors, LLC and uses both

120-667: The Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone . ICEWS has been discussed extensively in blogs related to geopolitical forecasting as well as crisis prediction. Among the topics discussed have been the utility of access to ICEWS data in improving the quality of predictions made in The Good Judgment Project and its similarities and differences with the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT). Bruce Bueno de Mesquita Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ( / m ə ˈ s k iː t ə / ; born November 24, 1946)

135-602: The Bayesian statistics model used by Steve Shellman , and geo-spatial network models built by Michael D. Ward . The ICEWS data and model are currently maintained by Lockheed Martin and undergoing operational test and evaluation by the United States Southern Command and United States Pacific Command . ICEWS has been discussed in papers on conflict prediction as well as papers on the coding of political events. There has also been some research comparing ICEWS with

150-582: The Central Intelligence Agency rated his model as being 90 percent accurate. Since 2005 or so, Bueno de Mesquita developed a superior model, now known as the Predictioneer's Game or PG that forecasts in a multi-dimensional space, uses the Schofield mean voter theorem, and solves for Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium in an N-player bargaining game that includes the possibility of coercion, essentially

165-458: The forecasting model and the selectorate approach in consulting. Bueno de Mesquita is discussed in an August 16, 2009 Sunday New York Times Magazine article entitled "Can Game Theory Predict When Iran Will Get the Bomb?" In December 2008 he was also the subject of a History Channel two-hour special entitled "The Next Nostradamus " and has been featured on the 2021 Netflix series How to Become

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180-657: The median voter position of an N-player bargaining game and solved for the median voter position as the outcome of several bargaining rounds using other ad-hoc components in the process. The first implementation of the EUM was used to successfully predict the successor of Indian Prime Minister Y. B. Chavan after his government collapsed (this was additionally the first known time the model was tested). Bueno de Mesquita's model not only correctly predicted that Charan Singh would become prime minister (a prediction that few experts in Indian politics at

195-401: The study of political events using forecasting methods, especially through his numerous papers that document elements of his models and predictions. Bueno de Mesquita has published dozens of forecasts in academic journals. The entirety of his models have never been released to the general public. Bueno de Mesquita has three children and six grandchildren. His son, Ethan Bueno de Mesquita,

210-447: The time predicted) but also that Y. B. Chavan would be in Singh's cabinet, that Indira Gandhi would briefly support Chavan's government, and that the government would soon collapse (all events that did occur). From the early success of his model, Bueno de Mesquita began a long and continuing career of consulting using refined implementations of his forecasting model. A declassified assessment by

225-698: Was responsible for the Black electoral system , a Condorcet method whereby, in the absence of a Condorcet winner (e.g. due to a cycle), the Borda winner is chosen. Black was born in Motherwell , Scotland , an industrial town south east of Glasgow, to a working-class family. He graduated from the Dalziel High School in Motherwell and then studied mathematics and physics at the University of Glasgow . He then enrolled for

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