44-528: Hutt South is a parliamentary electorate in the lower Hutt Valley of New Zealand. It is held by Chris Bishop of the National Party following the 2023 election. It was previously held by Ginny Andersen of the Labour Party The electorate is based on the southern part of the city of Lower Hutt . It was formed in 1996 from the old electorates of Pencarrow and Eastern Hutt . Hutt South consists of
88-448: A plurality voting system . From 1881, a special country quota meant that rural seats could contain fewer people than urban seats, preserving improportionality by over-representing the rural electoral population (mostly made up by farmers). The country quota inflated the number of the electoral population outside of cities and certain towns by some percentage. The quota was at first 33% (1881–1887), then briefly 18% (1887–1889), and 28% for
132-526: A Māori electorate or a general electorate. The percentage of Māori voters opting for the Māori roll determines the percentage of the whole Māori electoral population (of persons claiming Māori ancestry at the previous census) which is then divided by the South Island Quota to calculate the number of Māori electorates. South Island Māori opting for the general roll are included in the electoral population on which
176-459: A Māori voice in Parliament. In 1967 the reserved status of the Māori seats was removed, allowing non-Māori to stand in the Māori electorates, thus removing any guarantee that Māori would be elected to Parliament. Until 1993 the number of Māori electorates was fixed at four, significantly under-representing Māori in Parliament. In 1975 the definition of who could opt to register on either the general or
220-421: A candidate elected from their party list. Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member, or other incumbent. A [REDACTED] Y or [REDACTED] N denotes status of any incumbent , win or lose respectively. Note: lines coloured beige denote the winner of the electorate vote. Lines coloured pink denote a candidate elected to Parliament from their party list. Blue background denotes
264-496: A list member, or other incumbent. A [REDACTED] Y or [REDACTED] N denotes status of any incumbent , win or lose respectively. Blue background denotes the winner of the electorate vote. Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list. Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member, or other incumbent. A [REDACTED] Y or [REDACTED] N denotes status of any incumbent , win or lose respectively. Blue background denotes
308-496: A list member, or other incumbent. A [REDACTED] Y or [REDACTED] N denotes status of any incumbent , win or lose respectively. Blue background denotes the winner of the electorate vote. Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list. Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member, or other incumbent. A [REDACTED] Y or [REDACTED] N denotes status of any incumbent , win or lose respectively. Blue background denotes
352-504: A new electoral division or position may have been created, at which point the office or position is regarded as vacant or open. In the United States , an election without an incumbent on the ballot is an open seat or open contest . The word "incumbent" is derived from the Latin verb incumbere , literally meaning "to lean or lay upon" with the present participle stem incumbent- , "leaning
396-404: A variant of encumber, while encumber is derived from the root cumber , most appropriately defined: "To occupy obstructively or inconveniently; to block fill up with what hinders freedom of motion or action; to burden, load." In general, an incumbent has a political advantage over challengers at elections . Except when the timing of elections is determined by a constitution or by legislation,
440-483: Is a geographic constituency used for electing a member ( MP ) to the New Zealand Parliament . The size of electorates is determined such that all electorates have approximately the same electoral population. Before 1996, all MPs were directly chosen for office by the voters of an electorate. In New Zealand's electoral system , 72 of the usually 120 seats in Parliament are filled by electorate members, with
484-461: Is not a more suitable name. The compass point reference usually follows the name of the main population centre, e.g. Hamilton East . Over the years, there have been two types of "special" electorates created for particular communities. The first were special goldminers' electorates , created for participants in the Otago gold rush —goldminers did not usually meet the residency and property requirements in
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#1732859365908528-399: Is the current holder of an office or position. In an election , the incumbent is the person holding or acting in the position that is up for election, regardless of whether they are seeking re-election. There may or may not be an incumbent on the ballot : the previous holder may have died, retired, resigned; they may not seek re-election, be barred from re-election due to term limits , or
572-504: The Journal of Politics found that incumbents have "a far larger advantage" in on-cycle elections than in off-cycle elections . In relation to business operations and competition , an incumbent supplier is usually the supplier who currently supplies the needs of a customer and therefore has an advantageous position in relation to maintaining this role or agreeing a new contract, in comparison with competing businesses. Political analysts in
616-669: The South Island is to have 16 general electorates, and dividing the number of persons in the South Island's general electoral population by 16 determines the South Island Quota . This quota is then used to calculate the number of Māori electorates and to determine the number of North Island electorates. The number of Māori electorates is influenced by the Māori Electoral Option where Māori voters can opt to be in either
660-535: The House of Representatives in the 1850s modelled the electoral procedures used for the British House of Commons , which at that time featured both single-member electorates (electorates returning just one MP) and multi-member electorates (electorates returning more than one MP). Each electorate was allocated a different number of MPs (up to three) in order to balance electoral population differences. All electorates used
704-510: The Hutt South electorate. Unless otherwise stated, all MPs terms began and ended at general elections. Blue background denotes the winner of the electorate vote. Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list. Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member, or other incumbent. A [REDACTED] Y or [REDACTED] N denotes status of any incumbent , win or lose respectively. Blue background denotes
748-433: The Māori roll was expanded to include all persons of Māori descent. Previously all persons of more than 50% Māori ancestry were on the Māori roll while persons of less than 50% Māori ancestry were required to enrol on the then European roll. Only persons presumed to have equal Māori and European ancestry (so-called half-castes) had a choice of roll. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, the number of seats can change with
792-537: The North Island experienced higher population growth than the South island. At the 1996 election, there were 44 North Island electorates. By the 2023 election, this had increased to 49 electorates. In October 2024, Statistics New Zealand announced that population changes necessitated reducing the number of North Island general electorates by one, bringing the total number of North Island general electorates to 48. Because of
836-436: The South Island Quota is established. The North Island electoral population (including Māori opting for the general roll) is divided into electorates, each of approximately the same electoral population as the South Island ones. Electorates may vary by no more than 5% of the average electoral population size. This has caused the number of list seats in Parliament to decline as the population is experiencing "northern drift" (i.e.
880-518: The United States and United Kingdom have noted the existence of a sophomore surge (not known as such in the United Kingdom) in which first term representatives see an increase in votes after their first election. This phenomenon is said to bring an advantage of up to 10% for first-term representatives, which increases the incumbency advantage. However, the extent of the surge is a biased estimate of
924-456: The United States, an election (especially for a single-member constituency in a legislature ) in which an incumbent is not seeking re-election is often called an open seat ; because of the lack of incumbency advantage, these are often amongst the most hotly contested races in any election. Also, an open contest is created when the term of office is limited, as in the case of terms of the U.S. president being restricted to two four-year terms, and
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#1732859365908968-405: The candidates' qualifications, positions on political issues, and personal characteristics in a relatively straightforward way. Elections featuring an incumbent, on the other hand, are, as Guy Molyneux puts it, "fundamentally a referendum on the incumbent." Voters will first grapple with the record of the incumbent. Only if they decide to "fire" the incumbent do they begin to evaluate whether each of
1012-469: The challengers is an acceptable alternative. A 2017 study in the British Journal of Political Science argues that the incumbency advantage stems from the fact that voters evaluate the incumbent's ideology individually whereas they assume that any challenger shares his party's ideology. This means that the incumbency advantage gets more significant as political polarization increases. A 2017 study in
1056-537: The electoral advantage of incumbency. However, there exist scenarios in which the incumbency factor itself leads to the downfall of the incumbent. Popularly known as the anti-incumbency factor , situations of this kind occur when the incumbent has proven themself not worthy of office during their tenure and the challengers demonstrate this to the voters. An anti-incumbency factor can also be responsible for bringing down incumbents who have been in office for many successive terms despite performance indicators, simply because
1100-501: The electorate they were prospecting in, but were numerous enough to warrant political representation. Three goldminers' electorates existed, the first began in 1863 and both ended in 1870. Much more durable have been the Māori electorates , created in 1867 to give separate representation to Māori . Although originally intended to be temporary, they came to function as reserved positions for Māori until 1967, ensuring that there would always be
1144-498: The following suburbs of Lower Hutt fall within Hutt South. At the first MMP election in 1996 , Hutt South replaced the earlier electorate of Pencarrow , which was then held by Trevor Mallard . Mallard was returned at every general election until he moved to list-only at the 2017 election. Key Labour National United Future Members of Parliament elected from party lists in elections where that person also unsuccessfully contested
1188-519: The increasing North Island population, the Representation Commission awarded the North Island an additional electoral seat beginning in the 2008 general election . Another new North Island seat was added for the 2014 general election , and again for the 2020 general election (with one new electorate in Auckland). Each time, the need for an additional seat was determined from the results of
1232-413: The incumbent in some countries may have the right to determine the date of an election. For most political offices, the incumbent often has more name recognition due to their previous work in the office. Incumbents also have easier access to campaign finance , as well as government resources (such as the franking privilege ) that can be indirectly used to boost the incumbent's re-election campaign. In
1276-469: The incumbent is prohibited from recontesting. Although the expected advantage of incumbency has gone from about two percentage points in the 1950s, to ten percentage points in the 1980s and 1990s, and then back to about two percentage points in the 2010s and 2020s, the probability that an incumbent will lose his or her seat has remained approximately the same over the entire period. When newcomers look to fill an open office, voters tend to compare and contrast
1320-584: The map should read "Port Waikato".] Electorates in New Zealand have changed extensively since 1853, typically to meet changing population distributions. Boundaries were last changed in 2019 and 2020 for the 2020 election , with Clutha-Southland , Dunedin North , Dunedin South , Helensville , Hunua , Manukau East , Port Hills and Rodney being abolished and replaced either by new electorates, or by surrounding electoral districts. Incumbent The incumbent
1364-610: The most recent New Zealand census , with the seat coming out of the total number of list seats. The total number of list seats has thus declined from 55 to 48 since the introduction of mixed-member proportional voting in the 1996 general election . The Representation Commission has determined general electorate boundaries since 1881. These days, the Commission consists of: The Representation Commission reviews electorate boundaries after each New Zealand census , which normally occurs every five years. The Electoral Act 1993 stipulates that
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1408-404: The number of Māori voters who choose to go on the Māori roll rather than the general roll. In 1996, there were five Māori electorates. For the 1999 election, this increased to six electorates. Since the 2002 election, the number of Māori electorates has stayed constant at seven. This table shows the electorates as they were represented during the 54th New Zealand Parliament . [NB "Port Waitako" on
1452-554: The population of the North Island, especially around Auckland , is growing faster than that of the South Island) due both to internal migration and to immigration. Although the New Zealand Parliament is intended to have 120 members, some terms have exceeded this quantity. Overhang seats arise when a party win more seats via electorates than their proportion of the party vote entitles them to; other parties are still awarded
1496-519: The remainder being filled from party lists in order to achieve proportional representation among parties. The 72 electorates are made up from 65 general and seven Māori electorates . The number of electorates increases periodically in line with national population growth; the number was increased from 71 to 72 starting at the 2020 general election . The Electoral Act 1993 refers to electorates as "electoral districts". Electorates are informally referred to as "seats" (Māori: tūru ), but technically
1540-419: The remaining period (1889–1945). For the 1905 election , the multi-member electorates were abolished. The country quota system persisted until 1945. Since the introduction of MMP for the 1996 election, the number of South Island electorates is fixed at 16 as stipulated in the legislation. To achieve electorates of equal electoral population, the number of North Island electorates has gradually increased since
1584-454: The same number of seats that they are entitled to, which results in more than 120 seats in total. In 2005 and 2011 , 121 members were elected; 122 members were elected in 2008 . The Representation Commission determines the names of each electorate following the most recent census. An electorate may be named after a geographic region, landmark (e.g. a mountain) or main population area . The Commission adopts compass point names when there
1628-469: The southern suburbs of Lower Hutt , Petone , Wainuiomata , and Eastbourne . Following the 2014 boundary review, Hutt South lost Naenae and a small part of Epuni to Rimutaka , in exchange for the suburbs of Kelson and Belmont . It also gained the suburbs of Tirohanga , Harbour View , Normandale , Maungaraki and Korokoro from Ōhariu , meaning the entire Hutt Valley was now covered by just two electorates (Rimutaka and Hutt South). Since 2014,
1672-476: The term seat refers to an elected member's place in Parliament. The electoral boundaries for the inaugural 1853 general election were drawn up by the governor , George Grey , with the authority for this coming from the New Zealand Constitution Act 1852 . After the initial election, there were eight redivisions carried out by members of the general assembly (as the lower house was known at
1716-429: The time). These revisions were a mixture of minor and major boundary adjustments. In 1887, the responsibility for reshaping electorates was given to a Representation Commission and that arrangement has remained to this day. Up until 1981, the boundaries of the Māori electorates were determined by the governor or governor-general, when that responsibility was also transferred to the Representation Commission. Elections for
1760-548: The voters are convinced by the challengers of a need for change. It is also argued that the holders of extensively powerful offices are subject to immense pressure which leaves them politically impotent and unable to command enough public confidence for re-election; such is the case, for example, with the Presidency of France . Voters who experience the negative economic shock of a loss of income are less likely to vote for an incumbent candidate than those who have not experienced such
1804-401: The winner of the electorate vote. Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list. Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member, or other incumbent. A [REDACTED] Y or [REDACTED] N denotes status of any incumbent , win or lose respectively. New Zealand electorates An electorate or electoral district ( Māori : rohe pōti )
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1848-480: The winner of the electorate vote. Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list. Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member, or other incumbent. A [REDACTED] Y or [REDACTED] N denotes status of any incumbent , win or lose respectively. Blue background denotes the winner of the electorate vote. Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list. Yellow background denotes an electorate win by
1892-480: The winner of the electorate vote. Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list. Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member, or other incumbent. A [REDACTED] Y or [REDACTED] N denotes status of any incumbent , win or lose respectively. Blue background denotes the winner of the electorate vote. Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list. Yellow background denotes an electorate win by
1936-435: The winner of the electorate vote. Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list. Yellow background denotes an electorate win by a list member, or other incumbent. A [REDACTED] Y or [REDACTED] N denotes status of any incumbent , win or lose respectively. Electorate (as at 26 November 2011): 43,215 Blue background denotes the winner of the electorate vote. Pink background denotes
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