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50-471: [REDACTED] Look up expected in Wiktionary, the free dictionary. Expected may refer to: Expectation (epistemic) Expected value Expected shortfall Expected utility hypothesis Expected return Expected loss See also [ edit ] Unexpected (disambiguation) Expected value (disambiguation) Topics referred to by

100-431: A change in the condition of a single good can have ramifications beyond that good. Menger wrote: If it is established that the existence of human needs capable of satisfaction is a prerequisite of goods-character [...] This principle is valid whether the goods can be placed in direct causal connection with the satisfaction of human needs, or derive their goods-character from a more or less indirect causal connection with

150-460: A common topic of study and commentary for the Austrian school of economics given its emphasis on methodological individualism . This is to such an extent that unexpected consequences can be considered as a distinctive part of Austrian tenets. In " Principles of Economics ", Austrian school founder Carl Menger (1840 - 1921) noted that the relationships that occur in the economy are so intricate that

200-517: A decrease as intended. According to an anecdote , the British government, concerned about the number of venomous cobra snakes in Delhi , offered a bounty for every dead cobra. This was a successful strategy as large numbers of snakes were killed for the reward. Eventually, enterprising people began breeding cobras for the income. When the government became aware of this, they scrapped the reward program, causing

250-478: A drug for an unlicensed purpose. Famously, the drug Viagra was developed to lower blood pressure, with its use for treating erectile dysfunction being discovered as a side effect in clinical trials. The implementation of a profanity filter by AOL in 1996 had the unintended consequence of blocking residents of Scunthorpe , North Lincolnshire , England, from creating accounts because of a false positive . The accidental censorship of innocent language, known as

300-467: A drug that may help with depression, and you feel better after taking it, but the drug is just a salt-tablet (better known as a placebo ), then the benefit of feeling better (i.e. your non-volitional response), would be based on your expectations rather than any properties of the placebo (i.e. the salt-tablet). Sociologist Robert K. Merton wrote that a person's expectation is directly linked to self-fulfilling prophecy . Whether or not such an expectation

350-493: A much more dangerous intoxicant—owing to its high flammability—by those seeking to become intoxicated without breaking the letter of their pledge. It was thought that adding south-facing conservatories to British houses would reduce energy consumption by providing extra insulation and warmth from the sun. However, people tended to use the conservatories as living areas, installing heating and ultimately increasing overall energy consumption. A reward for lost nets found along

400-500: A parent or teacher, they may believe whatever is taught to them even if what is taught has no factual basis. If the student or child were to act on false information, certain positive or negative unintended consequences could result. If overly positive or elevated expectations were used to describe or manipulate a person's self-image and execution falls short, the results could be a total reversal of that person's self-confidence . If thought of in terms of causality or cause and effect,

450-435: A photograph of her home online. Before the lawsuit had been filed, only 6 people had downloaded the file, two of them Streisand's attorneys. The lawsuit drew attention to the image, resulting in 420,000 people visiting the site. The Streisand Effect was named after this incident, describing when an attempt to censor or remove a certain piece of information instead draws attention to the material being suppressed, resulting in

500-423: A purposeful action that are not intended or foreseen. The term was popularized in the 20th century by American sociologist Robert K. Merton . Unintended consequences can be grouped into three types: The idea of unintended consequences dates back at least to John Locke who discussed the unintended consequences of interest rate regulation in his letter to Sir John Somers, Member of Parliament. The idea

550-563: A sub-component of complexity (in the scientific sense), the chaotic nature of the universe—and especially its quality of having small, apparently insignificant changes with far-reaching effects (e.g., the butterfly effect )—applies. In 1936, Robert K. Merton listed five possible causes of unanticipated consequences: In addition to Merton's causes, psychologist Stuart Vyse has noted that groupthink , described by Irving Janis , has been blamed for some decisions that result in unintended consequences. The creation of " no-man's lands " during

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600-557: A systematic analysis to the problem of unintended consequences of deliberate acts intended to cause social change . He emphasized that his term purposive action , "[was exclusively] concerned with 'conduct' as distinct from 'behavior.' That is, with action that involves motives and consequently a choice between various alternatives". Merton's usage included deviations from what Max Weber defined as rational social action: instrumentally rational and value rational. Merton also stated that "no blanket statement categorically affirming or denying

650-482: A transportation method is uncommonly sighted, the likelier it could be deemed to be accident prone) Research by Vulcan, et al. found that the reduction in juvenile cyclists was because the youths considered wearing a bicycle helmet unfashionable. A health-benefit model developed at Macquarie University in Sydney suggests that, while helmet use reduces "the risk of head or brain injury by approximately two-thirds or more",

700-541: Is another key figure in the Austrian School of Economics who is notable for his comments on unintended consequences. In " The Use of Knowledge in Society " (1945) Hayek argues that a centrally planned economy cannot reach the level of efficiency of the free market economy because the necessary (and pertinent) information for decision-making is not concentrated but dispersed among a vast number of agents. Then, for Hayek,

750-416: Is different from Wikidata All article disambiguation pages All disambiguation pages Expectation (epistemic) Richard Lazarus asserts that people become accustomed to positive or negative life experiences which lead to favorable or unfavorable expectations of their present and near-future circumstances. Lazarus notes the widely accepted philosophical principle that "happiness depends on

800-400: Is only a matter of discovering these laws. For his part, for Karl Marx what can be understood as unintended consequences are actually consequences that should be expected but are obtained unconsciously. These consequences (that no one consciously sought) would be (in the same way as it is for Engels ) product of conflicts that confront actions from countless individuals. The deviation between

850-425: Is that people...develop favorable or unfavorable expectations " that guide such assessments. Irving Kirsch, a renowned psychological researcher, writes about "response-expectancies" which are: expectations about non- volitional responses. For example, science commonly takes into account " placebo -effects" when testing for new drugs, against subjects expectations of those drugs: for example, if you expect to receive

900-413: Is truthful or not, has little or no effect on the outcome. If a person believes what they are told or convinces himself/herself of the fact, chances are this person will see the expectation to its inevitable conclusion. There is an inherent danger in this kind of labeling especially for the educator. Since children are easily convinced of certain tenets especially when told to them by an authority figure like

950-521: The Cold War , in places such as the border between Eastern and Western Europe, and the Korean Demilitarized Zone , has led to large natural habitats. The sinking of ships in shallow waters during wartime has created many artificial coral reefs , which can be scientifically valuable and have become an attraction for recreational divers. This led to the deliberate sinking of retired ships for

1000-496: The Efficient-market hypothesis which suggest that all information should be incorporated into the market, as well as for Modern portfolio theory which suggests that investors must be compensated for higher levels of risk through higher (expected) returns. Following these models, empirical research has found that consumers with more optimistic stock market expectations are more likely to hold riskier assets, and acquire stocks in

1050-650: The Scunthorpe problem , has been repeated and widely documented. In 1990, the Australian state of Victoria made safety helmets mandatory for all bicycle riders. While there was a reduction in the number of head injuries, there was also an unintended reduction in the number of juvenile cyclists—fewer cyclists obviously leads to fewer injuries, all else being equal . The risk of death and serious injury per cyclist seems to have increased, possibly because of risk compensation , or due to invisibilisation of cyclists. (the more

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1100-606: The Taliban and Al-Qaeda . The introduction of exotic animals and plants for food, for decorative purposes, or to control unwanted species often leads to more harm than good done by the introduced species. The protection of the steel industry in the United States reduced production of steel in the United States, increased costs to users, and increased unemployment in associated industries. In 2003, Barbra Streisand unsuccessfully sued Kenneth Adelman and Pictopia.com for posting

1150-504: The War on Drugs , intended to suppress the illegal drug trade , instead increased the power and profitability of drug cartels who became the primary source of the products. In CIA jargon , " blowback " describes the unintended, undesirable consequences of covert operations, such as the funding of the Afghan Mujahideen and the destabilization of Afghanistan contributing to the rise of

1200-529: The Austrian school, this process of social adjustment that generates a social order in an unintendedly way is known as catallactics . For Hayek and the Austrian School, the number of individuals involved in the process of creating a social order defines the type of unintended consequence: Sociologist Robert K. Merton popularised this concept in the twentieth century. In "The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action" (1936), Merton tried to apply

1250-592: The Normandy coast was offered by the French government between 1980 and 1981. This resulted in people vandalizing nets to collect the reward. Beginning in the 1940s and continuing into the 1960s, the Canadian federal government gave Quebec $ 2.75 per day per psychiatric patient for their cost of care, but only $ 1.25 a day per orphan. The perverse result is that the orphan children were diagnosed as mentally ill so Quebec could receive

1300-414: The actions are intended, but the results which actually follow from these actions are not intended; or when they do seem to correspond to the end intended, they ultimately have consequences quite other than those intended. Historical events thus appear on the whole to be likewise governed by chance. But where on the surface accident holds sway, there actually it is always governed by inner, hidden laws, and it

1350-497: The background psychological status of the person...and cannot be well predicted without reference to one's expectations." With regard to happiness or unhappiness, Lazarus notes that "people whose objective conditions of life are those of hardship and deprivation often make a positive assessment of their well-being," while "people who are objectively well off...often make a negative assessment of their well-being." Lazarus argues that "the most sensible explanation of this apparent paradox

1400-455: The cobra breeders to set the now-worthless snakes free. As a result, the wild cobra population further increased. The apparent solution for the problem made the situation even worse, becoming known as the Cobra effect . Theobald Mathew 's temperance campaign in 19th-century Ireland resulted in thousands of people vowing never to drink alcohol again. This led to the consumption of diethyl ether ,

1450-518: The decrease in exercise caused by reduced cycling as a result of helmet laws is counterproductive in terms of net health. Prohibition in the 1920s United States , originally enacted to suppress the alcohol trade, drove many small-time alcohol suppliers out of business and consolidated the hold of large-scale organized crime over the illegal alcohol industry. Since alcohol was still popular, criminal organisations producing alcohol were well-funded and hence also increased their other activities. Similarly,

1500-404: The dispersion (or lack of concentration) of information. The implication of this is that the social order (which derives from social progress, which in turn derives from the economy), would be result of a spontaneous cooperation and also an unintended consequence, being born from a process of which no individual or group had all the information available or could know all possible outcomes. In

1550-527: The expectations of individuals can input these beliefs into the model in place of standard probabilities. The strategy of eliciting individual expectations is now incorporated into many international surveys, including the Health and Retirement Study in the United States. Expectations elicitation is used in many domains, including survival and educational outcomes, but may be most prominent in financial realms. Expectations are theoretically important for models such as

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1600-511: The higher a person's expectation and the lower the execution, the higher the frustration level may become. This in turn could cause a total cessation of effort and motivate the person to quit. Expectations are a central part of value calculations in economics. For example, calculating the Subjective expected utility of an outcome requires knowing both the value of an outcome and the probability that it will occur. Researchers who elicit (or measure)

1650-418: The history of society, on the contrary, the actors are all endowed with consciousness, are men acting with deliberation or passion, working towards definite goals; nothing happens without a conscious purpose, without an intended aim. [...] For here, also, on the whole, in spite of the consciously desired aims of all individuals, accident apparently reigns on the surface. That which is willed happens but rarely; in

1700-519: The larger amount of money. This psychiatric misdiagnosis affected up to 20,000 people, and the children are known as the Duplessis Orphans in reference to the Premier of Quebec who oversaw the scheme, Maurice Duplessis . There have been attempts to curb the consumption of sugary beverages by imposing a tax on them. However, a study found that the reduced consumption was only temporary. Also, there

1750-407: The majority of instances the numerous desired ends cross and conflict with one another, or these ends themselves are from the outset incapable of realization, or the means of attaining them are insufficient. Thus the conflicts of innumerable individual wills and individual actions in the domain of history produce a state of affairs entirely analogous to [...] the realm of unconscious nature. The ends of

1800-416: The material instead becoming widely known, reported on, and distributed. Passenger-side airbags in motorcars were intended as a safety feature, but led to an increase in child fatalities in the mid-1990s because small children were being hit by airbags that deployed automatically during collisions. The supposed solution to this problem, moving the child seat to the back of the vehicle, led to an increase in

1850-472: The merchant's reaction to price signals helps to ensure that the allocation of resources accurately reflects the structure of consumer preferences; and the drive to better our condition contributes to economic growth ." Influenced by 19th century positivism and Charles Darwin 's evolution , for both Friedrich Engels and Karl Marx, the idea of uncertainty and chance in social dynamics (and thus unintended consequences beyond results of perfectly defined laws)

1900-449: The near future. Given these promising findings, more recent research in psychology has begun to explore what factors drive consumers' expectations by exploring what factors come to mind when forming stock market expectations. Unintended consequences In the social sciences , unintended consequences (sometimes unanticipated consequences or unforeseen consequences , more colloquially called knock-on effects ) are outcomes of

1950-559: The number of children forgotten in unattended vehicles, some of whom died under extreme temperature conditions. Risk compensation, or the Peltzman effect , occurs after implementation of safety measures intended to reduce injury or death (e.g. bike helmets, seatbelts, etc.). People may feel safer than they really are and take additional risks which they would not have taken without the safety measures in place. This may result in no change, or even an increase, in morbidity or mortality, rather than

2000-481: The original intended goal and the product derived from conflicts would be a marxist equivalent to «unintended consequences.» This social conflicts would happen as a result of a competitive society, and also lead society to sabotage itself and prevent historical progress. Thus, historical progress (in Marxist terms) should eliminate these conflicts and make unintended consequences predictable. Unintended consequences are

2050-418: The practical feasibility of all social planning is warranted." More recently, the law of unintended consequences has come to be used as an adage or idiomatic warning that an intervention in a complex system tends to create unanticipated and often undesirable outcomes. Akin to Murphy's law , it is commonly used as a wry or humorous warning against the hubristic belief that humans can fully control

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2100-474: The price system in the free market allows the members of a society to anonymously coordinate for the most efficient use of resources, for example, in a situation of scarcity of a raw material, the price increase would coordinate the actions of an uncountable amount of individuals "in the right direction". The development of this system of interactions would allow the progress of society, and individuals would carry it out without knowing all its implications, given

2150-486: The purpose of replacing coral reefs lost to global warming and other factors. In medicine , most drugs have unintended consequences (' side effects ') associated with their use. However, some are beneficial. For instance, aspirin , a pain reliever , is also an anticoagulant that can help prevent heart attacks and reduce the severity and damage from thrombotic strokes . The existence of beneficial side effects also leads to off-label use —prescription or use of

2200-413: The same term [REDACTED] This disambiguation page lists articles associated with the title Expected . If an internal link led you here, you may wish to change the link to point directly to the intended article. Retrieved from " https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Expected&oldid=1221050887 " Category : Disambiguation pages Hidden categories: Short description

2250-664: The satisfaction of human needs. [...] Thus quinine would cease to be a good if the diseases it serves to cure should disappear, since the only need with the satisfaction of which it is causally connected would no longer exist. But the disappearance of the usefulness of quinine would have the further consequence that a large part of the corresponding goods of higher order would also be deprived of their goods-character. The inhabitants of quinine-producing countries, who currently earn their livings by cutting and peeling cinchona trees, would suddenly find that not only their stocks of cinchona bark, but also, in consequence, their cinchona trees,

2300-413: The tools and appliances applicable only to the production of quinine, and above all the specialized labor services, by means of which they previously earned their livings, would at once lose their goods-character, since all these things would, under the changed circumstances, no longer have any causal relationship with the satisfaction of human needs. Economist and philosopher Friedrich Hayek (1899 – 1992)

2350-407: The world around them, not to presuppose a belief in predestination or a lack or a disbelief in that of free will. Possible causes of unintended consequences include the world's inherent complexity (parts of a system responding to changes in the environment), perverse incentives , human stupidity , self-deception , failure to account for human nature, or other cognitive or emotional biases. As

2400-469: Was also discussed by Adam Smith , the Scottish Enlightenment , and consequentialism (judging by results). The invisible hand theorem is an example of the unintended consequences of agents acting in their self-interest. As Andrew S. Skinner puts it: "The individual undertaker ( entrepreneur ), seeking the most efficient allocation of resources, contributes to overall economic efficiency ;

2450-634: Was an increase in the consumption of beer among households. The New Jersey Childproof Handgun Law , which was intended to protect children from accidental discharge of firearms by forcing all future firearms sold in New Jersey to contain "smart" safety features , has delayed, if not stopped entirely, the introduction of such firearms to New Jersey markets. The wording of the law caused significant public backlash, fuelled by gun rights lobbyists , and several shop owners offering such guns received death threats and stopped stocking them. In 2014, 12 years after

2500-444: Was only apparent, (if not rejected) since social actions were directed and produced by deliberate human intention. While discerning between the forces that generate changes in nature and those that generate changes in history in his discussion of Ludwig Feuerbach , Friedrich Engels touched on the idea of (apparent) unintended consequences: In nature [...] there are only blind, unconscious agencies acting upon one another, [...] In

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