Heterodox
83-551: The Denny Triangle is a neighborhood in Seattle , Washington , United States, that stretches north of Downtown Seattle to the grounds of Seattle Center . Its generally flat terrain was originally a steep hill, taken down as part of a mammoth construction project in the first decades of the 20th century known as the Denny Regrade , which is another name for the neighborhood on the regraded area. The name Denny Triangle , referring to
166-496: A Bayesian statistical paradigm. Later , economist Joseph Schumpeter argued that a Juglar cycle has four stages: Schumpeter's Juglar model associates recovery and prosperity with increases in productivity, consumer confidence , aggregate demand , and prices. In the 20th century, Schumpeter and others proposed a typology of business cycles according to their periodicity, so that a number of particular cycles were named after their discoverers or proposers: Some say interest in
249-462: A company stock's current earnings. Intellectual capital contributes to a stock's return growth. Unlike long-term trends, medium-term data fluctuations are connected to the monetary policy transmission mechanism and its role in regulating inflation during an economic cycle. At the same time, the presence of nominal restrictions in price setting behavior might impact the short-term course of inflation. In recent years economic theory has moved towards
332-404: A cycle that needed to be explained and instead viewing their apparently cyclical nature as a methodological artefact. This means that what appear to be cyclical phenomena can actually be explained as just random events that are fed into a simple linear model. Thus business cycles are essentially random shocks that average out over time. Mainstream economists have built models of business cycles based
415-768: A few smaller neighborhoods. Mann and Minor neighborhoods in the Central District , were built around their schools. The University Heights school (1903) in the north of the University District was named for the neighborhood, as was the Latona School (1906) in Wallingford . Parks similarly define some neighborhoods. Madrona Beach and Cowen and Ravenna Parks were privately established to encourage residential development upon otherwise unusable land. The plan for Olmsted Parks fulfilled its goal and significantly influenced
498-488: A form of fluctuation. In economic activities, a cycle of expansions happening, followed by recessions, contractions, and revivals. All of which combine to form the next cycle's expansion phase; this sequence of change is repeated but not periodic. The explanation of fluctuations in aggregate economic activity is one of the primary concerns of macroeconomics and a variety of theories have been proposed to explain them. Within economics, it has been debated as to whether or not
581-453: A group of concerned Wallingford citizens enlisted the University of Washington Community Development Bureau to survey their neighborhood; the survey revealed that more residents of southwest Wallingford considered themselves citizens of Fremont than of Wallingford. Minor arterial roads are generally located along the boundaries of neighborhoods, with streets and highways built according to
664-516: A heterodox branch in economics until being systematized in Keynesian economics in the 1930s. Sismondi's theory of periodic crises was developed into a theory of alternating cycles by Charles Dunoyer , and similar theories, showing signs of influence by Sismondi, were developed by Johann Karl Rodbertus . Periodic crises in capitalism formed the basis of the theory of Karl Marx , who further claimed that these crises were increasing in severity and, on
747-409: A leading case. As well-formed and compact – and easy to implement – statistical methods may outperform macroeconomic approaches in numerous cases, they provide a solid alternative even for rather complex economic theory. In 1860 French economist Clément Juglar first identified economic cycles 7 to 11 years long, although he cautiously did not claim any rigid regularity. This interval of periodicity
830-481: A library branch. The community organizations build a voting constituency, and in so doing define a neighborhood. In the absence of ward politics, this and campaign finance legislation are seen as more open alternatives. The Greenwood-Phinney Commercial Club was particularly active in organizing toward the Greenwood branch that opened in 1928. The Lake City Branch Library opened in 1935 as a few shelves of books in part of
913-520: A network of free enterprises searching for profit. The problem of how business cycles come about is therefore inseparable from the problem of how a capitalist economy functions. In the United States, it is generally accepted that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the final arbiter of the dates of the peaks and troughs of the business cycle. An expansion is the period from a trough to
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#1732844126030996-445: A one period change, that is unusual over the course of one or two years, is often relegated to “noise”; an example is a worker strike or an isolated period of severe weather. The individual episodes of expansion/recession occur with changing duration and intensity over time. Typically their periodicity has a wide range from around 2 to 10 years. There are many sources of business cycle movements such as rapid and significant changes in
1079-423: A peak and a recession as the period from a peak to a trough. The NBER identifies a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production". There is often a close timing relationship between the upper turning points of the business cycle, commodity prices, and freight rates, which
1162-582: A portion of said property ... except a domestic servant or servants who may actually and in good faith be employed by white occupants. Further restrictions on conveyance (rental, lease, sale, transfer) were often included, effectively defining most of the neighborhoods in Seattle during the first decades after establishment. The Supreme Court ruled in 1948 that racial restrictions would no longer be enforced. The Seattle Open Housing Ordinance became effective in 1968. Although unenforceable, legal complications prevent
1245-418: A recession or depression. This debate has important policy consequences: proponents of exogenous causes of crises such as neoclassicals largely argue for minimal government policy or regulation ( laissez faire ), as absent these external shocks, the market functions, while proponents of endogenous causes of crises such as Keynesians largely argue for larger government policy and regulation, as absent regulation,
1328-605: A room in Lake City School, shared with the Works Progress Administration (WPA), sponsored by the Pacific Improvement Club community group. The library moved into a new building in 1955. Elementary public schools effectively defined many neighborhoods, which are often synonymous with the name of the elementary school when the neighborhood and school were established. Many of the neighborhoods contain
1411-566: A setting for political arguments between the city council and the mayor; controversies over accountability, cronyism, and ward politics occurred in 1974, 1976, and 1988. In 1991 the CSCs were renamed Neighborhood Service Centers (NSCs) and were placed under the jurisdiction of the Department of Neighborhoods. More recently, their number has been reduced. As of 2011, there are NSCs located in Ballard, Lake City,
1494-435: A solution. Statistical or econometric modelling and theory of business cycle movements can also be used. In this case a time series analysis is used to capture the regularities and the stochastic signals and noise in economic time series such as Real GDP or Investment. [Harvey and Trimbur, 2003, Review of Economics and Statistics ] developed models for describing stochastic or pseudo- cycles, of which business cycles represent
1577-697: A type of fluctuation found in the aggregate economic activity of nations that organize their work mainly in business enterprises: a cycle consists of expansions occurring at about the same time in many economic activities, followed by similarly general recessions, contractions, and revivals which merge into the expansion phase of the next cycle; in duration, business cycles vary from more than one year to ten or twelve years; they are not divisible into shorter cycles of similar characteristics with amplitudes approximating their own. According to A. F. Burns: Business cycles are not merely fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. The critical feature that distinguishes them from
1660-629: A war was the Panic of 1825 . Business cycles in OECD countries after World War II were generally more restrained than the earlier business cycles. This was particularly true during the Golden Age of Capitalism (1945/50–1970s), and the period 1945–2008 did not experience a global downturn until the Late-2000s recession . Economic stabilization policy using fiscal policy and monetary policy appeared to have dampened
1743-553: A year. Because of the tax revolt that took place in Washington in the late 1990s and early 21st century, the county's budget has been reduced and the county has said it is unlikely to be able to maintain adequate levels of funding for urban services in unincorporated areas. The nearby city of Burien , however, issued a 2004 draft report for its own annexation of all or part of North Highline. North Highline, which adjoins SeaTac , Burien, and Tukwila in addition to Seattle, consists of
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#17328441260301826-485: Is also commonplace, as an empirical finding, in time series models for stochastic cycles in economic data. Furthermore, methods like statistical modelling in a Bayesian framework – see e.g. [Harvey, Trimbur, and van Dijk, 2007, Journal of Econometrics ] – can incorporate such a range explicitly by setting up priors that concentrate around say 6 to 12 years, such flexible knowledge about the frequency of business cycles can actually be included in their mathematical study, using
1909-469: Is bounded in its westernmost block by Virginia Street and (once it crosses Westlake Avenue) by Olive Way, and with an eastern border on the same small piece of Interstate 5 as the City Clerk's map. Seattle is located on an isthmus between Lake Washington on the east and Puget Sound on the west. The north-south orientation of the lake and of the city's many hills is the result of glaciation . The terrain
1992-409: Is not stable over different time periods because of economic shocks , random fluctuations and development in financial systems . Ludvigson believes consumer confidence index is a coincident indicator as it relates to consumer's current situations. Winton & Ralph state that retail trade index is a benchmark for the current economic level because its aggregate value counts up for two-thirds of
2075-469: Is shown to be particularly tight in the grand peak years of 1873, 1889, 1900 and 1912. Hamilton expressed that in the post war era, a majority of recessions are connected to an increase in oil price. Commodity price shocks are considered to be a significant driving force of the US business cycle. Along these lines, the research in [Trimbur, 2010, International Journal of Forecasting ] shows empirical results for
2158-515: Is the highest point in the Downtown neighbourhood area. Seattle annexed eight municipalities between 1905 and 1910, nearly doubling the area size of the city. Annexations by law were begun by the annexee and had to be approved by the Seattle City Council. The appeal of the inexpensive and accessible electric power and water system services of the public utilities were the primary motivations for
2241-641: Is the southeastern boundary of the Maple Leaf neighborhood, while the city clerk's archival map places that district's southern boundary at 85th Street. Another example of boundary ambiguity is "Frelard," which local residents call the area shared by Fremont and Ballard between 3rd and 8th Avenues NW. Signs facing opposite directions on NW Leary Way reveal the overlap. Further difficulty in defining neighborhoods can result from residents' identification with neighborhoods different from those marked on signs and maps. After an acrimonious development dispute in 1966,
2324-517: The 'CD' to 'Madrona' to 'Greater Madison Valley' and now 'Madrona Park.' " Some neighborhoods, such as northwest Seattle, do not have widely recognized names for their greater districts. Throughout Seattle one can find signs indicating the boundaries of neighborhoods; the locations of these signs have been specified by the city's many community councils. However, the boundaries suggested by these signs routinely overlap and differ from delineations on maps. For example, signs indicate that Lake City Way NE
2407-619: The Boulevard Park neighborhood and part of White Center . West Hill, which abuts Tukwila and Renton as well as Seattle, consists of Bryn Mawr-Skyway , Lakeridge , and Earlington . Its 2010 population is 15,645. On December 11, 2006, the Seattle City Council agreed to designate North Highline a "potential annexation area". Boom and bust Business cycles are intervals of general expansion followed by recession in economic performance. The changes in economic activity that characterize business cycles have important implications for
2490-453: The Central District for people of African ancestry, clearly defining those neighborhoods. Ballard – Sunset Hill, Beacon Hill, Broadmoor, Green Lake, Laurelhurst, Magnolia, Queen Anne, South Lake City, and other Seattle neighborhoods and blocks had racially or ethnically restrictive housing covenants, such as the following sample: No person or persons of [any of several minorities] blood, lineage, or extraction shall be permitted to occupy
2573-525: The Central Waterfront ), and on the southeast by Stewart Street; the southern tip of this triangle falls in the northern part of Pike Place Market . A map on downtownseattle.com agrees on the northern boundary at Denny Way, but splits this area into "Belltown" and the Denny Triangle and gives both a less regular shape. They divide Belltown to the southwest from the Denny Triangle to the northeast, with
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2656-495: The Denny family , who were among the city's earliest white inhabitants. The First Avenue regrade was started in 1897 and completed on January 6, 1899. From 1902 to 1911, the hill was sluiced into Elliott Bay by pumping water from Lake Union using hydraulic mining techniques, in a series of regrades along Pike and Pine Streets, Second Avenue, and the massive Denny Regrade No. 1 which regraded everything remaining between Fifth Avenue and
2739-534: The Seattle City Clerk's Neighborhood Map Atlas , which in turn is based on a variety of sources, including a 1980 neighborhood map produced by the now-defunct Department of Community Development, Seattle Public Library indexes, a 1984-1986 "Neighborhood Profiles" feature series in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer , numerous park, land use and transportation planning studies, as well as records in
2822-586: The United States , the National Bureau of Economic Research oversees a Business Cycle Dating Committee that defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP , real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." Business cycles are usually thought of as medium term evolution. They are less related to long-term trends, coming from slowly-changing factors like technological advances. Further,
2905-458: The price of oil or variation in consumer sentiment that affects overall spending in the macroeconomy and thus investment and firms' profits. Usually such sources are unpredictable in advance and can be viewed as random "shocks" to the cyclical pattern, as happened during the 2007–2008 financial crises or the COVID-19 pandemic . The first systematic exposition of economic crises , in opposition to
2988-482: The 1954 annexation of Lake City. The following previously incorporated cities and towns were annexed by Seattle. This list is in order of annexation. Other areas annexed to Seattle, were unincorporated before annexation. Examples of the latter include the northern part of Queen Anne Hill, the University District, and the northern area of the city that were once part of then-unincorporated Shoreline . Because of
3071-667: The 19th and first half of the 20th century, specifically the period 1815–1939. This period started from the end of the Napoleonic wars in 1815, which was immediately followed by the Post-Napoleonic depression in the United Kingdom (1815–1830), and culminated in the Great Depression of 1929–1939, which led into World War II . See Financial crisis: 19th century for listing and details. The first of these crises not associated with
3154-541: The 19th century. ( See: Productivity improving technologies (historical) .) A table of innovations and long cycles can be seen at: Kondratiev wave § Modern modifications of Kondratiev theory . Since surprising news in the economy, which has a random aspect, impact the state of the business cycle, any corresponding descriptions must have a random part at its root that motivates the use of statistical frameworks in this area. There were frequent crises in Europe and America in
3237-622: The Committee of the Association for the Relief of the Manufacturing Poor, both identified the cause of economic cycles as overproduction and underconsumption , caused in particular by wealth inequality . They advocated government intervention and socialism , respectively, as the solution. This work did not generate interest among classical economists, though underconsumption theory developed as
3320-463: The Denny Regrade as bounded on the north by Denny Way , on the southwest by Third Avenue, on the southeast by Olive Way, with a small eastern border on Interstate 5 . A 2009 map from northwestplaces.com treats the term "Denny Regrade" as synonymous with Belltown and shows both names as referring to a triangle bounded on the north by Denny Way, on the southwest by Western Avenue (two blocks inland of
3403-552: The Seattle Municipal Archives. The following table is largely based on maps from the Seattle City Clerk's Neighborhood Atlas, but also includes designations from other sources. ( Licton Springs ) Belltown currently is largely residential with some commercial office buildings, with 1st street containing a large concentration of nightlife dining and drinking establishments. The intersection of 2nd ave and Virginia
Denny Triangle, Seattle - Misplaced Pages Continue
3486-656: The University District, the Central District, West Seattle, Southeast Seattle, and Delridge. A local improvement district (LID) is a method by which a group of property owners can share the cost of transportation infrastructure improvements. This involves improving the street, building sidewalks and installing stormwater management systems. Without Seattle's LID assessment system, the city would be unable to maintain its rapid growth in population and territory. LIDs have helped define neighborhoods by localizing decisions about issues like sidewalks, vegetation and other features of
3569-399: The annexation movements. Ballard was its own incorporated town for 17 years, annexed as its own ward . West Seattle incorporated in 1902, then annexed Spring Hill, Riverside, Alki Point, and Youngstown districts. It was the largest of the incorporated towns to be annexed. Southeast Seattle merged the towns of Hillman City and York with other Rainier Valley neighborhoods, then incorporated for
3652-561: The basis of which, he predicted a communist revolution . Though only passing references in Das Kapital (1867) refer to crises, they were extensively discussed in Marx's posthumously published books, particularly in Theories of Surplus Value . In Progress and Poverty (1879), Henry George focused on land 's role in crises – particularly land speculation – and proposed a single tax on land as
3735-402: The border running mainly along Fifth Avenue but including a small number of properties along Denny Way west of Fifth Avenue as being in the Denny Triangle. They mark the southwest border of Belltown as a block closer to the water (Elliott Avenue) and draw a more ragged southeast border: west of Fifth Avenue, Belltown extends south only to Lenora Street, while east of Fifth Avenue the Denny Triangle
3818-697: The business cycle, notably the paradox of thrift , and today this previously heterodox school has entered the mainstream in the form of Keynesian economics via the Keynesian revolution. Mainstream economics views business cycles as essentially "the random summation of random causes". In 1927, Eugen Slutzky observed that summing random numbers, such as the last digits of the Russian state lottery, could generate patterns akin to that we see in business cycles, an observation that has since been repeated many times. This caused economists to move away from viewing business cycles as
3901-473: The business cycle. For almost 30 years, these economic data series are considered as "the leading index" or "the leading indicators"-were compiled and published by the U.S. Department of Commerce . A prominent coincident, or real-time, business cycle indicator is the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Index . Recent research employing spectral analysis has confirmed the presence of Kondratiev waves in
3984-533: The character of neighborhoods around parks and playgrounds. East Phinney and West Meridian neighborhoods are sometimes called Woodland Park, as well as South Green Lake or North Wallingford for Meridian. Housing covenants became common in the 1920s and were validated by the U.S. Supreme Court in 1926. Minorities were effectively limited to the International District and parts of some neighborhoods in south-east Seattle for Asian- and Native Americans; or
4067-464: The city council would result in Tammany Hall -style politics. In 1973, inspired by Boston's model, Mayor Wes Uhlman 's administration implemented a system of Little City Halls , where Community Service Centers (CSCs) assumed responsibility for coordinating municipal services. Uhlman's political opponents called the CSCs a thinly disguised ward system designed to promote Uhlman's reelection. CSCs became
4150-430: The commercial convulsions of earlier centuries or from the seasonal and other short term variations of our own age is that the fluctuations are widely diffused over the economy – its industry, its commercial dealings, and its tangles of finance. The economy of the western world is a system of closely interrelated parts. He who would understand business cycles must master the workings of an economic system organized largely in
4233-611: The cost of providing city services, low-density residential neighborhoods represent a net revenue loss for municipalities. Because vehicle-license revenue is no longer used to subsidize unincorporated areas, these neighborhoods have become increasingly orphaned. In April 2004, the City Council voted to defer a decision on Mayor Nickels' proposal to designate the West Hill and North Highline neighborhoods, part of unincorporated King County , as potential annexation areas (PAAs) for at least
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#17328441260304316-422: The covenants from being expunged from property title documents. Seattle initially adopted a ward system; however, in 1910, this system was replaced by non-partisan, at-large representation. Variations on ward systems were proposed and rejected in 1914, 1926, 1974, 1995, and 2003 and convictions for campaign-related money laundering followed the 1995 campaign. Critics claimed that district-style elections of
4399-659: The cycling of monetary systems. Since 1960, World GDP has increased by fifty-nine times, and these multiples have not even kept up with annual inflation over the same period. Social Contract (freedoms and absence of social problems) collapses may be observed in nations where incomes are not kept in balance with cost-of-living over the timeline of the monetary system cycle. The Bible (760 BCE) and Hammurabi 's Code (1763 BCE) both explain economic remediations for cyclic sixty-year recurring great depressions, via fiftieth-year Jubilee (biblical) debt and wealth resets . Thirty major debt forgiveness events are recorded in history including
4482-646: The debt forgiveness given to most European nations in the 1930s to 1954. There were great increases in productivity , industrial production and real per capita product throughout the period from 1870 to 1890 that included the Long Depression and two other recessions. There were also significant increases in productivity in the years leading up to the Great Depression. Both the Long and Great Depressions were characterized by overcapacity and market saturation. Over
4565-453: The different typologies of cycles has waned since the development of modern macroeconomics , which gives little support to the idea of regular periodic cycles. Further econometric studies such as the two works in 2003 and 2007 cited above demonstrate a clear tendency for cyclical components in macroeconomic times to behave in a stochastic rather than deterministic way. Others, such as Dmitry Orlov , argue that simple compound interest mandates
4648-472: The economic crisis in former Eastern Bloc countries following the end of the Soviet Union in 1991. For several of these countries the period 1989–2010 has been an ongoing depression, with real income still lower than in 1989. In 1946, economists Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell provided the now standard definition of business cycles in their book Measuring Business Cycles : Business cycles are
4731-435: The economic cycle is framed in terms of refuting or supporting Say's law; this is also referred to as the " general glut " (supply in relation to demand) debate. Until the Keynesian revolution in mainstream economics in the wake of the Great Depression , classical and neoclassical explanations (exogenous causes) were the mainstream explanation of economic cycles; following the Keynesian revolution, neoclassical macroeconomics
4814-445: The economy to come to short run equilibrium at levels that are different from the full employment rate of output. These fluctuations express themselves as the observed business cycles. Keynesian models do not necessarily imply periodic business cycles. However, simple Keynesian models involving the interaction of the Keynesian multiplier and accelerator give rise to cyclical responses to initial shocks. Paul Samuelson 's "oscillator model"
4897-679: The economy. However, this was followed by stagflation in the 1970s, which discredited the theory. The second declaration was in the early 2000s, following the stability and growth in the 1980s and 1990s in what came to be known as the Great Moderation . Notably, in 2003, Robert Lucas Jr. , in his presidential address to the American Economic Association , declared that the "central problem of depression-prevention [has] been solved, for all practical purposes." Various regions have experienced prolonged depressions , most dramatically
4980-572: The existing theory of economic equilibrium , was the 1819 Nouveaux Principes d'économie politique by Jean Charles Léonard de Sismondi . Prior to that point classical economics had either denied the existence of business cycles, blamed them on external factors, notably war, or only studied the long term. Sismondi found vindication in the Panic of 1825 , which was the first unarguably international economic crisis, occurring in peacetime. Sismondi and his contemporary Robert Owen , who expressed similar but less systematic thoughts in 1817 Report to
5063-698: The fluctuations of a business cycle are attributable to external (exogenous) versus internal (endogenous) causes. In the first case shocks are stochastic, in the second case shocks are deterministically chaotic and embedded in the economic system. The classical school (now neo-classical) argues for exogenous causes and the underconsumptionist (now Keynesian) school argues for endogenous causes. These may also broadly be classed as "supply-side" and "demand-side" explanations: supply-side explanations may be styled, following Say's law , as arguing that " supply creates its own demand ", while demand-side explanations argue that effective demand may fall short of supply, yielding
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#17328441260305146-488: The idea that they are caused by random shocks. Due to this inherent randomness, recessions can sometimes not occur for decades; for example, Australia did not experience any recession between 1991 and 2020. While economists have found it difficult to forecast recessions or determine their likely severity, research indicates that longer expansions do not cause following recessions to be more severe. According to Keynesian economics , fluctuations in aggregate demand cause
5229-510: The market economy as due to exogenous influences, such as the State or its regulations, labor unions, business monopolies, or shocks due to technology or natural causes. Contrarily, in the heterodox tradition of Jean Charles Léonard de Sismondi , Clément Juglar , and Marx the recurrent upturns and downturns of the market system are an endogenous characteristic of it. The 19th-century school of under consumptionism also posited endogenous causes for
5312-486: The market will move from crisis to crisis. This division is not absolute – some classicals (including Say) argued for government policy to mitigate the damage of economic cycles, despite believing in external causes, while Austrian School economists argue against government involvement as only worsening crises, despite believing in internal causes. The view of the economic cycle as caused exogenously dates to Say's law, and much debate on endogeneity or exogeneity of causes of
5395-410: The northeastern portion of this regrading project, is a term that has gained currency as this neighborhood has seen increasing development in the first decades of the 21st century. As with most Seattle neighborhoods, the Denny Triangle has no formal borders. The Seattle City Clerk's Neighborhood Map Atlas (which is published by the city but does not have official status as defining neighborhoods) defines
5478-429: The only reason of being annexed. Similarly, the town of South Seattle consisted of mostly industrial Duwamish Valley neighborhoods (except Georgetown); one enclave adjacent to Georgetown omitted at this time was annexed 1921; some land near the river in this area remains part of unincorporated King County. In 1910 Georgetown was the last of this sequence of small incorporated cities and towns to be annexed to Seattle before
5561-574: The overall GDP and reflects the real state of the economy. According to Stock and Watson, unemployment claim can predict when the business cycle is entering a downward phase. Banbura and Rüstler argue that industry production's GDP information can be delayed as it measures real activity with real number, but it provides an accurate prediction of GDP. Series used to infer the underlying business cycle fall into three categories: lagging , coincident , and leading . They are described as main elements of an analytic system to forecast peaks and troughs in
5644-541: The period since the Industrial Revolution, technological progress has had a much larger effect on the economy than any fluctuations in credit or debt, the primary exception being the Great Depression, which caused a multi-year steep economic decline. The effect of technological progress can be seen by the purchasing power of an average hour's work, which has grown from $ 3 in 1900 to $ 22 in 1990, measured in 2010 dollars. There were similar increases in real wages during
5727-431: The public space, permitting neighborhoods to remain distinct from their neighbors. No official neighborhood boundaries have existed in Seattle since 1910. Districts and neighborhoods are thus informal; their boundaries may overlap and multiple names may exist for a single district. Boundaries and names can be disputed or change over time. In 2002 a Department of Neighborhoods spokeswoman said, "I've seen my area go from
5810-498: The relation between oil-prices and real GDP. The methodology uses a statistical model that incorporate level shifts in the price of crude oil; hence the approach describes the possibility of oil price shocks and forecasts the likelihood of such events. Economic indicators are used to measure the business cycle: consumer confidence index , retail trade index , unemployment and industry/service production index . Stock and Watson claim that financial indicators' predictive ability
5893-418: The same way trolley stops defined neighborhoods before cars. The Department of Neighborhoods designates a number of Historic Districts, which have a similar status to Seattle Landmarks . As of 2021 these are: Source of list: Despite complications in Seattle's system of neighborhoods and districts, the names and boundaries in the following list are generally accepted and widely used. They are based on
5976-864: The so-called recurrence quantification correlation index to test correlations of RQA on a sample signal and then investigated the application to business time series. The said index has been proven to detect hidden changes in time series. Further, Orlando et al., over an extensive dataset, shown that recurrence quantification analysis may help in anticipating transitions from laminar (i.e. regular) to turbulent (i.e. chaotic) phases such as USA GDP in 1949, 1953, etc. Last but not least, it has been demonstrated that recurrence quantification analysis can detect differences between macroeconomic variables and highlight hidden features of economic dynamics. The Business Cycle follows changes in stock prices which are mostly caused by external factors such as socioeconomic conditions, inflation, exchange rates. Intellectual capital does not affect
6059-487: The street classification system. These effectively help define neighborhoods. Development in accordance with the street classification system maintains the quality of life of city neighborhoods and improves efficiency of the road system. The classification system discourages rat running through local neighborhood streets. Transportation hubs, such as business zones and transit stations, such as Park and Ride facilities, provide focal points for districts of neighborhoods
6142-482: The study of economic fluctuation rather than a "business cycle" – though some economists use the phrase 'business cycle' as a convenient shorthand. For example, Milton Friedman said that calling the business cycle a "cycle" is a misnomer , because of its non-cyclical nature. Friedman believed that for the most part, excluding very large supply shocks, business declines are more of a monetary phenomenon. Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell define business cycle as
6225-404: The surrounding areas. Some community clubs used covenants to restrict the ethnicity of residents. Establishing public library branches can define districts as well as neighborhoods. Public libraries are among the most heavily used buildings. Seattle elected its city council at large from 1910 to 2014, and community clubs lobby councilors for the interests of local residents – such as for
6308-548: The surrounding hills, which grew into neighborhoods and autonomous towns. Conurbations tended to grow from such towns or from unincorporated areas around trolley stops during the 19th and early 20th centuries; the city has consequently suffered from transportation and street-naming problems. Seattle was established during an economic boom fueled by the timber industry; its early years were characterized by hasty expansion and development, under which residential areas were loosely defined by widely scattered plats . This arrangement
6391-464: The waterfront. In 1929–30, Denny Regrade No. 2 removed the final pieces of the hill east of Fifth Avenue using steam shovels . List of neighborhoods in Seattle The city of Seattle, Washington, contains many districts and neighborhoods . The city's former mayor Greg Nickels has described it as "a city of neighborhoods". Early European settlers established widely scattered settlements on
6474-399: The welfare of the general population, government institutions, and private sector firms. There are many definitions of a business cycle. The simplest defines recessions as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. More satisfactory classifications are provided by, first including more economic indicators and second by looking for more data patterns than the two quarter definition. In
6557-569: The world GDP dynamics at an acceptable level of statistical significance. Korotayev & Tsirel also detected shorter business cycles, dating the Kuznets to about 17 years and calling it the third sub-harmonic of the Kondratiev, meaning that there are three Kuznets cycles per Kondratiev. Recurrence quantification analysis has been employed to detect the characteristic of business cycles and economic development . To this end, Orlando et al. developed
6640-453: The worst excesses of business cycles, and automatic stabilization due to the aspects of the government 's budget also helped mitigate the cycle even without conscious action by policy-makers. In this period, the economic cycle – at least the problem of depressions – was twice declared dead. The first declaration was in the late 1960s, when the Phillips curve was seen as being able to steer
6723-498: Was first gouged by south-moving glaciers, and when they retreated, was marked by mounds of rock debris left in their wake. Denny and Queen Anne Hills are two of those north of what is now downtown Seattle. Denny Hill was removed in a series of regrades beginning in 1898 and ending in 1930. The Denny Regrade project was the removal of Denny Hill, one of the proverbial seven hills of Seattle . It ran east from First Avenue between Pike Street and Denny Way. Hill and street were named after
6806-435: Was further solidified by the establishment of locally initiated community clubs, public libraries, public schools, and public parks, which created a sense of community and civic participation. At the beginning of the 20th century, Seattle's community clubs became influential in the organization of public improvements. These had a significant effect upon the character of their neighborhoods and allowed them to remain distinct from
6889-403: Was largely rejected. There has been some resurgence of neoclassical approaches in the form of real business cycle (RBC) theory. The debate between Keynesians and neo-classical advocates was reawakened following the recession of 2007. Mainstream economists working in the neoclassical tradition, as opposed to the Keynesian tradition, have usually viewed the departures of the harmonic working of
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