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104-402: Although wildfire is a natural part of the ecosystem of western forests, fire suppression began to be widespread in the late 19th century just as land-use patterns (e.g. intensive grazing ) limited the cover that had formerly sustained and been sustained by low-intensity ground fires. High-density stands of small trees and thick underbrush permitted a natural periodic ground fire to leap into

208-564: A defensible space be maintained by clearing flammable materials within a prescribed distance from the structure. Communities in the Philippines also maintain fire lines 5 to 10 meters (16 to 33 ft) wide between the forest and their village, and patrol these lines during summer months or seasons of dry weather. Continued residential development in fire-prone areas and rebuilding structures destroyed by fires has been met with criticism. The ecological benefits of fire are often overridden by

312-401: A moisture content lower than that of well-cured firewood . The heavy rains and snows of the mid-1990s had produced luxuriant undergrowth, while the onset of drought toward the end of the decade had increased its flammability. The fire originated as a controlled burn that was part of the 10-year Bandelier National Monument plan for reducing fire hazard within the monument. The starting point

416-465: A 15 mile radius. Additionally, Sensaio Tech , based in Brazil and Toronto, has released a sensor device that continuously monitors 14 different variables common in forests, ranging from soil temperature to salinity. This information is connected live back to clients through dashboard visualizations, while mobile notifications are provided regarding dangerous levels. Satellite and aerial monitoring through

520-470: A 24-hour fire day that begins at 10:00 a.m. due to the predictable increase in intensity resulting from the daytime warmth. Climate change promotes the type of weather that makes wildfires more likely. In some areas, an increase of wildfires has been attributed directly to climate change. Evidence from Earth's past also shows more fire in warmer periods. Climate change increases evapotranspiration . This can cause vegetation and soils to dry out. When

624-431: A company's prospects. In economics, as in finance, risk is often defined as quantifiable uncertainty about gains and losses. Environmental risk arises from environmental hazards or environmental issues . In the environmental context, risk is defined as "The chance of harmful effects to human health or to ecological systems". Environmental risk assessment aims to assess the effects of stressors, often chemicals, on

728-566: A doubling in land area burned by wildfires compared to natural levels. Humans have impacted wildfire through climate change (e.g. more intense heat waves and droughts ), land-use change , and wildfire suppression . The carbon released from wildfires can add to carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere and thus contribute to the greenhouse effect . This creates a climate change feedback . Naturally occurring wildfires can have beneficial effects on those ecosystems that have evolved with fire. In fact, many plant species depend on

832-610: A fire starts in an area with very dry vegetation, it can spread rapidly. Higher temperatures can also lengthen the fire season. This is the time of year in which severe wildfires are most likely, particularly in regions where snow is disappearing. Weather conditions are raising the risks of wildfires. But the total area burnt by wildfires has decreased. This is mostly because savanna has been converted to cropland , so there are fewer trees to burn. Climate variability including heat waves , droughts , and El Niño , and regional weather patterns, such as high-pressure ridges, can increase

936-554: A high-intensity crown fire. There followed a century of fire suppression, during which large fires occurred on the Pajarito Plateau about every 20 years: an 1896 fire, several fires in the 1920s, a fire in 1946, the 1954 Water Canyon Fire , the 1977 La Mesa Fire , and the 1996 Dome Fire . The 1977 La Mesa Fire served as the precedent for how destructive forest fires in the area could be and how compounding issues such as fuel buildup and lack of area survey were ignored leading up to

1040-405: A highly quantified way. The technique is usually referred to as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). See WASH-1400 for an example of this approach. The incidence rate can also be reduced due to the provision of better occupational health and safety programmes. Security is freedom from, or resilience against, potential harm caused by others. A security risk is "any event that could result in

1144-400: A large organization or simply crossing the road. Intuitive risk management is addressed under the psychology of risk below. Risk management refers to a systematic approach to managing risks, and sometimes to the profession that does this. A general definition is that risk management consists of "coordinated activities to direct and control an organization with regard to risk". ISO 31000 ,

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1248-530: A new fire detection tool is in operation at the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service (USFS) which uses data from the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite to detect smaller fires in more detail than previous space-based products. The high-resolution data is used with a computer model to predict how a fire will change direction based on weather and land conditions. In 2014, an international campaign

1352-415: A number expected to rise to 30,000 by 2050. The economic impact is also significant, with projected costs reaching $ 240 billion annually by 2050, surpassing other climate-related damages. Over the past century, wildfires have accounted for 20–25% of global carbon emissions, the remainder from human activities. Global carbon emissions from wildfires through August 2020 equaled the average annual emissions of

1456-545: A policy of allowing some wildfires to burn is the cheapest method and an ecologically appropriate policy for many forests, they tend not to take into account the economic value of resources that are consumed by the fire, especially merchantable timber. Some studies conclude that while fuels may also be removed by logging, such thinning treatments may not be effective at reducing fire severity under extreme weather conditions. Building codes in fire-prone areas typically require that structures be built of flame-resistant materials and

1560-431: A pool of risks including market risk, credit risk, operational risk, interest rate risk, mortality risk, longevity risks, etc. The term "risk" has a long history in insurance and has acquired several specialised definitions, including "the subject-matter of an insurance contract", "an insured peril" as well as the more common "possibility of an event occurring which causes injury or loss". Occupational health and safety

1664-503: A possible resolution to human operator error. These systems may be semi- or fully automated and employ systems based on the risk area and degree of human presence, as suggested by GIS data analyses. An integrated approach of multiple systems can be used to merge satellite data, aerial imagery, and personnel position via Global Positioning System (GPS) into a collective whole for near-realtime use by wireless Incident Command Centers . A small, high risk area that features thick vegetation,

1768-531: A rapid forward rate of spread (FROS) when burning through dense uninterrupted fuels. They can move as fast as 10.8 kilometres per hour (6.7 mph) in forests and 22 kilometres per hour (14 mph) in grasslands. Wildfires can advance tangential to the main front to form a flanking front, or burn in the opposite direction of the main front by backing . They may also spread by jumping or spotting as winds and vertical convection columns carry firebrands (hot wood embers) and other burning materials through

1872-681: A remote site and sent via overnight mail to the fire manager . During the Yellowstone fires of 1988 , a data station was established in West Yellowstone , permitting the delivery of satellite-based fire information in approximately four hours. Public hotlines, fire lookouts in towers, and ground and aerial patrols can be used as a means of early detection of forest fires. However, accurate human observation may be limited by operator fatigue , time of day, time of year, and geographic location. Electronic systems have gained popularity in recent years as

1976-622: A simple summary, defining risk as "the possibility of something bad happening". The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 31073 provides basic vocabulary to develop common understanding on risk management concepts and terms across different applications. ISO 31073 defines risk as: effect of uncertainty on objectives Note 1: An effect is a deviation from the expected. It can be positive, negative or both, and can address, create or result in opportunities and threats . Note 2: Objectives can have different aspects and categories, and can be applied at different levels. Note 3: Risk

2080-569: A strong human presence, or is close to a critical urban area can be monitored using a local sensor network . Detection systems may include wireless sensor networks that act as automated weather systems: detecting temperature, humidity, and smoke. These may be battery-powered, solar-powered, or tree-rechargeable : able to recharge their battery systems using the small electrical currents in plant material. Larger, medium-risk areas can be monitored by scanning towers that incorporate fixed cameras and sensors to detect smoke or additional factors such as

2184-521: A variety of hazards that may result in accidents causing harm to people, property and the environment. In the safety field, risk is typically defined as the "likelihood and severity of hazardous events". Safety risks are controlled using techniques of risk management. A high reliability organisation (HRO) involves complex operations in environments where catastrophic accidents could occur. Examples include aircraft carriers, air traffic control, aerospace and nuclear power stations. Some HROs manage risk in

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2288-686: A wildfire may be more specifically identified as a bushfire ( in Australia ), desert fire, grass fire, hill fire, peat fire, prairie fire, vegetation fire, or veld fire. Some natural forest ecosystems depend on wildfire. Wildfires are different from controlled or prescribed burning , which are carried out to provide a benefit for people. Modern forest management often engages in prescribed burns to mitigate fire risk and promote natural forest cycles. However, controlled burns can turn into wildfires by mistake. Wildfires can be classified by cause of ignition, physical properties, combustible material present, and

2392-494: Is a questionnaire screening tool, used to provide individuals with an evaluation of their health risks and quality of life. Health, safety, and environment (HSE) are separate practice areas; however, they are often linked. The reason is typically to do with organizational management structures; however, there are strong links among these disciplines. One of the strongest links is that a single risk event may have impacts in all three areas, albeit over differing timescales. For example,

2496-416: Is an individual or collaborative undertaking planned to achieve a specific aim. Project risk is defined as, "an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on a project's objectives". Project risk management aims to increase the likelihood and impact of positive events and decrease the likelihood and impact of negative events in the project. Safety is concerned with

2600-471: Is concerned with occupational hazards experienced in the workplace. The Occupational Health and Safety Assessment Series (OHSAS) standard OHSAS 18001 in 1999 defined risk as the "combination of the likelihood and consequence(s) of a specified hazardous event occurring". In 2018 this was replaced by ISO 45001 "Occupational health and safety management systems", which use the ISO Guide 73 definition. A project

2704-405: Is governed in part by topography , as land shape determines factors such as available sunlight and water for plant growth. Overall, fire types can be generally characterized by their fuels as follows: Wildfires occur when all the necessary elements of a fire triangle come together in a susceptible area: an ignition source is brought into contact with a combustible material such as vegetation that

2808-432: Is narrowly focused on computer security, information risks extend to other forms of information (paper, microfilm). Insurance is a risk treatment option which involves risk sharing. It can be considered as a form of contingent capital and is akin to purchasing an option in which the buyer pays a small premium to be protected from a potential large loss. Insurance risk is often taken by insurance companies, who then bear

2912-721: Is no longer an expectation, but the majority of wildfires are often extinguished before they grow out of control. While more than 99% of the 10,000 new wildfires each year are contained, escaped wildfires under extreme weather conditions are difficult to suppress without a change in the weather. Wildfires in Canada and the US burn an average of 54,500 square kilometers (13,000,000 acres) per year. Above all, fighting wildfires can become deadly. A wildfire's burning front may also change direction unexpectedly and jump across fire breaks. Intense heat and smoke can lead to disorientation and loss of appreciation of

3016-473: Is prone to offset errors, anywhere from 2 to 3 kilometers (1 to 2 mi) for MODIS and AVHRR data and up to 12 kilometers (7.5 mi) for GOES data. Satellites in geostationary orbits may become disabled, and satellites in polar orbits are often limited by their short window of observation time. Cloud cover and image resolution may also limit the effectiveness of satellite imagery. Global Forest Watch provides detailed daily updates on fire alerts. In 2015

3120-662: Is subjected to enough heat and has an adequate supply of oxygen from the ambient air. A high moisture content usually prevents ignition and slows propagation, because higher temperatures are needed to evaporate any water in the material and heat the material to its fire point . Dense forests usually provide more shade, resulting in lower ambient temperatures and greater humidity , and are therefore less susceptible to wildfires. Less dense material such as grasses and leaves are easier to ignite because they contain less water than denser material such as branches and trunks. Plants continuously lose water by evapotranspiration , but water loss

3224-458: Is the possibility of something bad happening. Risk involves uncertainty about the effects/implications of an activity with respect to something that humans value (such as health, well-being, wealth, property or the environment), often focusing on negative, undesirable consequences. Many different definitions have been proposed. One international standard definition of risk is the "effect of uncertainty on objectives". The understanding of risk,

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3328-472: Is the use of computers to store, retrieve, transmit, and manipulate data. IT risk (or cyber risk) arises from the potential that a threat may exploit a vulnerability to breach security and cause harm. IT risk management applies risk management methods to IT to manage IT risks. Computer security is the protection of IT systems by managing IT risks. Information security is the practice of protecting information by mitigating information risks. While IT risk

3432-416: Is usually balanced by water absorbed from the soil, humidity, or rain. When this balance is not maintained, often as a consequence of droughts , plants dry out and are therefore more flammable. A wildfire front is the portion sustaining continuous flaming combustion, where unburned material meets active flames, or the smoldering transition between unburned and burned material. As the front approaches,

3536-436: Is usually expressed in terms of risk sources, potential events, their consequences and their likelihood. This definition was developed by an international committee representing over 30 countries and is based on the input of several thousand subject-matter experts. It was first adopted in 2002 for use in standards. Its complexity reflects the difficulty of satisfying fields that use the term risk, in different ways. Some restrict

3640-418: The 2019–20 Australian bushfire season "an independent study found online bots and trolls exaggerating the role of arson in the fires." In the 2023 Canadian wildfires false claims of arson gained traction on social media; however, arson is generally not a main cause of wildfires in Canada. In California, generally 6–10% of wildfires annually are arson. Coal seam fires burn in the thousands around

3744-957: The Amazon rainforest . The fires in the latter were caused mainly by illegal logging . The smoke from the fires expanded on huge territory including major cities, dramatically reducing air quality. As of August 2020, the wildfires in that year were 13% worse than in 2019 due primarily to climate change , deforestation and agricultural burning. The Amazon rainforest 's existence is threatened by fires. Record-breaking wildfires in 2021 occurred in Turkey , Greece and Russia , thought to be linked to climate change. The carbon released from wildfires can add to greenhouse gas concentrations. Climate models do not yet fully reflect this feedback . Wildfires release large amounts of carbon dioxide, black and brown carbon particles, and ozone precursors such as volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides (NOx) into

3848-557: The European Union . In 2020, the carbon released by California's wildfires was significantly larger than the state's other carbon emissions. Forest fires in Indonesia in 1997 were estimated to have released between 0.81 and 2.57 giga tonnes (0.89 and 2.83 billion short tons ) of CO 2 into the atmosphere, which is between 13–40% of the annual global carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels. In June and July 2019, fires in

3952-472: The Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS). Between 2022–2023, wildfires throughout North America prompted an uptake in the delivery and design of various technologies using artificial intelligence for early detection, prevention, and prediction of wildfires. Wildfire suppression depends on the technologies available in the area in which the wildfire occurs. In less developed nations

4056-500: The Paris climate agreement . Due to the complex oxidative chemistry occurring during the transport of wildfire smoke in the atmosphere, the toxicity of emissions was indicated to increase over time. Atmospheric models suggest that these concentrations of sooty particles could increase absorption of incoming solar radiation during winter months by as much as 15%. The Amazon is estimated to hold around 90 billion tons of carbon. As of 2019,

4160-441: The risk of resulting loss of control so severe, that the burn should never have been attempted at that time of year. At the same time, Bandelier officials faced a most disagreeable dilemma. Proceeding with the burn risked disaster if control was lost, as indeed happened. However, not doing the burn might also have been disastrous because the entire southern slope of Cerro Grande was tinder-dry and ready to ignite catastrophically in

4264-611: The streams in the canyons that the existing streambeds might not have been able to handle. This concern, coupled with the prospect of monsoon rains that typically begin in about July in the area, made dealing with the possibility of flooding urgent. The highest priority for flood management involved the Los Alamos Critical Experiments Facility (LACEF), a remote site for conducting research in nuclear criticality safety that housed substantial quantities of special nuclear material . The LACEF laboratories were in

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4368-429: The taiga biome are particularly susceptible. Wildfires can severely impact humans and their settlements. Effects include for example the direct health impacts of smoke and fire, as well as destruction of property (especially in wildland–urban interfaces ), and economic losses. There is also the potential for contamination of water and soil. At a global level, human practices have made the impacts of wildfire worse, with

4472-478: The variance (or standard deviation) of asset prices. More recent risk measures include value at risk . Because investors are generally risk averse , investments with greater inherent risk must promise higher expected returns. Financial risk management uses financial instruments to manage exposure to risk. It includes the use of a hedge to offset risks by adopting a position in an opposing market or investment. In financial audit , audit risk refers to

4576-459: The Arctic emitted more than 140 megatons of carbon dioxide, according to an analysis by CAMS. To put that into perspective this amounts to the same amount of carbon emitted by 36 million cars in a year. The recent wildfires and their massive CO 2 emissions mean that it will be important to take them into consideration when implementing measures for reaching greenhouse gas reduction targets accorded with

4680-678: The Cerro Grande Fire. It burned 15,000 acres (60 km) in Bandelier National Monument , but accelerated a change in attitudes within the National Park Service toward managing fire. On Bandelier National Monument, firebreaks were improved, as were fuel breaks, and in some areas, trees were thinned. The 1996 Dome Fire burned 16,500 acres (67 km) in nine days and threatened the southern section of Los Alamos National Laboratory. The Interagency Wildfire Management Team

4784-542: The Cerro Grande Wild Fire aftermath. A 40-member forestry crew with members from the Eight Northern Pueblos has built 3,000 small dams (to minimize siltation of Santa Clara Creek), and planted one million trees on 3,500 acres (14 km). On June 21, 2000, the laboratory acknowledged measurements were 10 to 20 times above background levels but that analysis by it and other agencies still indicated all of

4888-498: The United States in the early 20th century and fires were reported using telephones, carrier pigeons , and heliographs . Aerial and land photography using instant cameras were used in the 1950s until infrared scanning was developed for fire detection in the 1960s. However, information analysis and delivery was often delayed by limitations in communication technology. Early satellite-derived fire analyses were hand-drawn on maps at

4992-767: The Western US, earlier snowmelt and associated warming has also been associated with an increase in length and severity of the wildfire season, or the most fire-prone time of the year. A 2019 study indicates that the increase in fire risk in California may be partially attributable to human-induced climate change . In the summer of 1974–1975 (southern hemisphere), Australia suffered its worst recorded wildfire, when 15% of Australia's land mass suffered "extensive fire damage". Fires that summer burned up an estimated 117 million hectares (290 million acres ; 1,170,000 square kilometres ; 450,000 square miles ). In Australia,

5096-435: The air over roads, rivers, and other barriers that may otherwise act as firebreaks . Torching and fires in tree canopies encourage spotting, and dry ground fuels around a wildfire are especially vulnerable to ignition from firebrands. Spotting can create spot fires as hot embers and firebrands ignite fuels downwind from the fire. In Australian bushfires , spot fires are known to occur as far as 20 kilometres (12 mi) from

5200-720: The annual number of hot days (above 35 °C) and very hot days (above 40 °C) has increased significantly in many areas of the country since 1950. The country has always had bushfires but in 2019, the extent and ferocity of these fires increased dramatically. For the first time catastrophic bushfire conditions were declared for Greater Sydney. New South Wales and Queensland declared a state of emergency but fires were also burning in South Australia and Western Australia. In 2019, extreme heat and dryness caused massive wildfires in Siberia , Alaska , Canary Islands , Australia , and in

5304-444: The atmosphere. These emissions affect radiation, clouds, and climate on regional and even global scales. Wildfires also emit substantial amounts of semi-volatile organic species that can partition from the gas phase to form secondary organic aerosol (SOA) over hours to days after emission. In addition, the formation of the other pollutants as the air is transported can lead to harmful exposures for populations in regions far away from

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5408-532: The bottom of Pajarito Canyon. A month after the fire, a "short-duration (30-minute), relatively moderate-intensity thunderstorm" caused a brief, heavy flood in this canyon upstream of LACEF. "The maximum estimated peak flow in Pajarito Canyon upstream of State Road (SR) 501 was 1020 cfs, an all-time record for watersheds gaged by LANL on the Pajarito Plateau ..." To protect LACEF, a large, temporary " dry dam "

5512-570: The burned areas to accelerate regrowth of the vegetation. To control erosion mechanically, Los Alamos County work crews laid thousands of trees across slopes, and chipped other trees. The presence of Los Alamos National Laboratory in and downstream of the burned area posed several unusual problems in remediation, beyond the ones resulting directly from destruction of some of the institution's buildings by fire. Other problems arose from fire-generated soot that seeped into buildings, shorting out electrical equipment and clogging HEPA filters necessary to

5616-498: The burned zone. The town of Los Alamos, the national laboratory, and the lower parts of the burned area are all situated on the Pajarito Plateau , an area of extensive canyons and mesas in which surface runoff tends to concentrate in the canyon bottoms. This tendency was exacerbated in Cerro Grande's aftermath because the soil in the burned areas had become hydrophobic , raising the specter of drastically increased water flow in

5720-422: The canyons below populated mesas. Inferno by Committee , a detailed history of the fire and what went wrong, was published by firefighter Tom Ribe in 2024. Limelight Publishing ISBN p-978-1-4461-2440-6. Wildfire A wildfire , forest fire , or a bushfire is an unplanned, uncontrolled and unpredictable fire in an area of combustible vegetation . Depending on the type of vegetation present,

5824-711: The common methods of management, the measurements of risk and even the definition of risk differ in different practice areas. This section provides links to more detailed articles on these areas. Business risks arise from uncertainty about the profit of a commercial business due to unwanted events such as changes in tastes, changing preferences of consumers, strikes, increased competition, changes in government policy, obsolescence etc. Business risks are controlled using techniques of risk management . In many cases they may be managed by intuitive steps to prevent or mitigate risks, by following regulations or standards of good practice, or by insurance . Enterprise risk management includes

5928-452: The compromise of organizational assets i.e. the unauthorized use, loss, damage, disclosure or modification of organizational assets for the profit, personal interest or political interests of individuals, groups or other entities." Security risk management involves protection of assets from harm caused by deliberate acts. Risk is ubiquitous in all areas of life and we all manage these risks, consciously or intuitively, whether we are managing

6032-537: The contamination came from natural radiation sources in vegetation that burned, principally from the decay of natural radon. An investigation funded by the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED) and the Department of Energy (DOE) concluded no significant increase in health risk from LANL-derived chemicals and radionuclides released in the air. [3] In August 2000, a review of the events leading up to

6136-432: The context of public health , risk assessment is the process of characterizing the nature and likelihood of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain human activities. Health risk assessment can be mostly qualitative or can include statistical estimates of probabilities for specific populations. A health risk assessment (also referred to as a health risk appraisal and health & well-being assessment)

6240-593: The direction of the fire, which can make fires particularly dangerous. For example, during the 1949 Mann Gulch fire in Montana , United States, thirteen smokejumpers died when they lost their communication links, became disoriented, and were overtaken by the fire. In the Australian February 2009 Victorian bushfires , at least 173 people died and over 2,029 homes and 3,500 structures were lost when they became engulfed by wildfire. Risk In simple terms, risk

6344-659: The dry dam eventually was removed. Severe flooding did occur in upper Pueblo Canyon, significantly damaging Diamond Drive, one of the town's arterial roads. Water quality was monitored by LANL for several years in the aftermath of the fire. Although flash floods were fortuitously minimal, erosion nonetheless was substantial, and many miles of the 57-mile network of trails maintained by Los Alamos County were severely damaged. Canyon bottoms in particular were clogged with fallen trees and boulders washed down from above. Erosion might have been far worse, had there not been timely intervention. A Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) team

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6448-532: The earliest use of the word in English (in the spelling of risque from its French original, 'risque') as of 1621, and the spelling as risk from 1655. While including several other definitions, the OED 3rd edition defines risk as: (Exposure to) the possibility of loss, injury, or other adverse or unwelcome circumstance; a chance or situation involving such a possibility. The Cambridge Advanced Learner's Dictionary gives

6552-693: The earth's atmosphere has 415 parts per million of carbon, and the destruction of the Amazon would add about 38 parts per million. Some research has shown wildfire smoke can have a cooling effect. Research in 2007 stated that black carbon in snow changed temperature three times more than atmospheric carbon dioxide. As much as 94 percent of Arctic warming may be caused by dark carbon on snow that initiates melting. The dark carbon comes from fossil fuels burning, wood and other biofuels, and forest fires. Melting can occur even at low concentrations of dark carbon (below five parts per billion)". Wildfire prevention refers to

6656-411: The economic and safety benefits of protecting structures and human life. The demand for timely, high-quality fire information has increased in recent years. Fast and effective detection is a key factor in wildfire fighting. Early detection efforts were focused on early response, accurate results in both daytime and nighttime, and the ability to prioritize fire danger. Fire lookout towers were used in

6760-552: The effect of weather on the fire. Wildfire severity results from a combination of factors such as available fuels, physical setting, and weather. Climatic cycles with wet periods that create substantial fuels, followed by drought and heat, often precede severe wildfires. These cycles have been intensified by climate change . Wildfires are a common type of disaster in some regions, including Siberia (Russia), California (United States), British Columbia (Canada), and Australia . Areas with Mediterranean climates or in

6864-412: The effects of fire for growth and reproduction. The ignition of a fire takes place through either natural causes or human activity (deliberate or not). Natural occurrences that can ignite wildfires without the involvement of humans include lightning , volcanic eruptions , sparks from rock falls, and spontaneous combustions . Sources of human-caused fire may include arson, accidental ignition, or

6968-499: The event of a lightning strike (hardly unusual in the Jemez in the spring) or human carelessness with fire. The same winds that militated against starting the controlled burn might then have driven the uncontrolled fire toward Los Alamos, with terrible consequences. In any case, the controlled burn was indeed initiated on May 4, and things rapidly got out of hand. A particular concern was the possibility of flooding in areas downstream from

7072-402: The fire front. Especially large wildfires may affect air currents in their immediate vicinities by the stack effect : air rises as it is heated, and large wildfires create powerful updrafts that will draw in new, cooler air from surrounding areas in thermal columns . Great vertical differences in temperature and humidity encourage pyrocumulus clouds , strong winds, and fire whirls with

7176-417: The fire heats both the surrounding air and woody material through convection and thermal radiation . First, wood is dried as water is vaporized at a temperature of 100 °C (212 °F). Next, the pyrolysis of wood at 230 °C (450 °F) releases flammable gases. Finally, wood can smolder at 380 °C (720 °F) or, when heated sufficiently, ignite at 590 °C (1,000 °F). Even before

7280-452: The flames of a wildfire arrive at a particular location, heat transfer from the wildfire front warms the air to 800 °C (1,470 °F), which pre-heats and dries flammable materials, causing materials to ignite faster and allowing the fire to spread faster. High-temperature and long-duration surface wildfires may encourage flashover or torching : the drying of tree canopies and their subsequent ignition from below. Wildfires have

7384-441: The force of tornadoes at speeds of more than 80 kilometres per hour (50 mph). Rapid rates of spread, prolific crowning or spotting, the presence of fire whirls, and strong convection columns signify extreme conditions. Intensity also increases during daytime hours. Burn rates of smoldering logs are up to five times greater during the day due to lower humidity, increased temperatures, and increased wind speeds. Sunlight warms

7488-673: The former FEMAville site was proposed as a full-service RV park. This proposal was soundly rejected by residents and the FEMAville acreage remains open space. Santa Clara Canyon, home to Puye Cliff Dwellings , was devastated by Cerro Grande. The people of Santa Clara Pueblo , who formerly earned income through tourism, now operate the Santa Claran Casino in Española, New Mexico . On June 20, 2000, residents of Isleta and Sandia Pueblos hired four environmental engineers to permanently work with

7592-450: The ground during the day which creates air currents that travel uphill. At night the land cools, creating air currents that travel downhill. Wildfires are fanned by these winds and often follow the air currents over hills and through valleys. Fires in Europe occur frequently during the hours of 12:00 p.m. and 2:00 p.m. Wildfire suppression operations in the United States revolve around

7696-414: The importance of different adverse effects in a particular situation. The Society for Risk Analysis concludes that "experience has shown that to agree on one unified set of definitions is not realistic". The solution is "to allow for different perspectives on fundamental concepts and make a distinction between overall qualitative definitions and their associated measurements." The understanding of risk,

7800-490: The infrared signature of carbon dioxide produced by fires. Additional capabilities such as night vision , brightness detection, and color change detection may also be incorporated into sensor arrays . The Department of Natural Resources signed a contract with PanoAI for the installation of 360 degree 'rapid detection' cameras around the Pacific northwest, which are mounted on cell towers and are capable of 24/7 monitoring of

7904-444: The local environment. Finance is concerned with money management and acquiring funds. Financial risk arises from uncertainty about financial returns. It includes market risk , credit risk , liquidity risk and operational risk . In finance, risk is the possibility that the actual return on an investment will be different from its expected return. This includes not only " downside risk " (returns below expectations, including

8008-469: The methods and processes used by organizations to manage risks and seize opportunities related to the achievement of their objectives. Economics is concerned with the production, distribution and consumption of goods and services. Economic risk arises from uncertainty about economic outcomes. For example, economic risk may be the chance that macroeconomic conditions like exchange rates, government regulation, or political stability will affect an investment or

8112-527: The methods of assessment and management, the descriptions of risk and even the definitions of risk differ in different practice areas ( business , economics , environment , finance , information technology , health , insurance , safety , security etc). This article provides links to more detailed articles on these areas. The international standard for risk management, ISO 31000 , provides principles and general guidelines on managing risks faced by organizations . The Oxford English Dictionary (OED) cites

8216-601: The operation of clean rooms at some of the laboratories. Resolving these problems took several years in some cases. Meanwhile, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) mobilized to provide relief to the residents of Los Alamos who had been burned out of their homes. A compound of portable buildings ("trailers"), known locally as FEMAville, was constructed on undeveloped land near the county rodeo grounds on North Mesa, providing housing for hundreds of displaced residents. Some residents complained about

8320-638: The original goals of the prescribed fire and not minimizing the fire getting out of control. [5] The goal is to reduce the build up of dead wood and brush on the ground, called fuels, to minimize the risk of destructive wildfires spreading to surrounding communities. The local community has also taken many steps to prevent and protect against future wildfires, including removing vegetation around buildings to increase defensible space, replacing roof and sheathing materials (e.g. cedar shakes) with less flammable materials, and continued thinning and reduction of fuels in unburned wooded areas in and around town, particularly in

8424-515: The park, nearby Santa Fe National Forest, and the thousands of people living in Los Alamos and surrounding communities. [2] The main point of contention was wind. In the springtime, the Jemez Mountains are prone to high winds and low humidity, which often create high to extreme fire danger. Critics insisted that the likelihood of such winds while the controlled burn was in progress was so great, and

8528-415: The phase-1 burn was scheduled for May 4, 2000. In the aftermath of the disaster, Bandelier officials came under intense criticism for this plan, and particularly, for proceeding with it in the face of what appeared to be powerful contradictions. Ms Gary Jones, associate director of energy, resources, and science issues at the general accounting office, points out a lack of consideration toward fuel buildup in

8632-425: The possibility of losing some or all of the original investment) but also "upside risk" (returns that exceed expectations). In Knight's definition, risk is often defined as quantifiable uncertainty about gains and losses. This contrasts with Knightian uncertainty , which cannot be quantified. Financial risk modeling determines the aggregate risk in a financial portfolio. Modern portfolio theory measures risk using

8736-440: The potential that an audit report may fail to detect material misstatement either due to error or fraud. Health risks arise from disease and other biological hazards . Epidemiology is the study and analysis of the distribution, patterns and determinants of health and disease. It is a cornerstone of public health , and shapes policy decisions by identifying risk factors for disease and targets for preventive healthcare . In

8840-480: The preemptive methods aimed at reducing the risk of fires as well as lessening its severity and spread. Prevention techniques aim to manage air quality, maintain ecological balances, protect resources, and to affect future fires. Prevention policies must consider the role that humans play in wildfires, since, for example, 95% of forest fires in Europe are related to human involvement. Wildfire prevention programs around

8944-727: The prescribed fire and how it was managed resulted in lessons learned and recommendations for fuel reduction from the US General Accounting Office. The far larger Rodeo-Chediski Fire in Arizona , as well as several other fires in the Western United States in 2002, completed the process of bringing forest fires into political focus, leading to the establishment of the Healthy Forests Initiative in 2003. This initiative remains controversial, and its applicability to

9048-715: The relatively sparse forests of the Jemez Mountains that were consumed in the Cerro Grande Fire is unclear. Clearly, though, significant thinning of the coniferous forest of the Jemez has occurred in the years following Cerro Grande. The evaluation of the aftermath of this fire points to a bigger problem, loss of land to poor handling of natural resources. At the time of the fire, the area of logged forest amounted to 100,000 acres, this in comparison to forest lost from prescribed fires amounting to 2 and half million acres. [4] The GAO, Government Accountability Office, concluded that suppression tactics used by park service in response to fire were more apparently aimed at following through with

9152-404: The risk and alter the behavior of wildfires dramatically. Years of high precipitation can produce rapid vegetation growth, which when followed by warmer periods can encourage more widespread fires and longer fire seasons. High temperatures dry out the fuel loads and make them more flammable, increasing tree mortality and posing significant risks to global forest health. Since the mid-1980s, in

9256-558: The summit. This grassy area also represented the headwaters of Frijoles Creek ( Rito de los Frijoles ), which flows southeast into Frijoles Canyon and on to the Rio Grande , passing en route the main tourist areas at Bandelier. The plan for the burn (see the NPS summary below) called for initial ignition ("phase 1") to be in the rincon, followed by flanking fires ("phase 2") along the slightly higher country east and west of Frijoles Creek. Ignition of

9360-399: The techniques used can be as simple as throwing sand or beating the fire with sticks or palm fronds. In more advanced nations, the suppression methods vary due to increased technological capacity. Silver iodide can be used to encourage snow fall, while fire retardants and water can be dropped onto fires by unmanned aerial vehicles , planes , and helicopters . Complete fire suppression

9464-422: The term to negative impacts ("downside risks"), while others also include positive impacts ("upside risks"). Some resolve these differences by arguing that the definition of risk is subjective. For example: No definition is advanced as the correct one, because there is no one definition that is suitable for all problems. Rather, the choice of definition is a political one, expressing someone's views regarding

9568-447: The timeliness and thoroughness of the FEMA response. The trailers became available only in late June 2000, after municipal utilities were completed and the trailers were delivered and hooked up to the utilities. By 2006, all the trailers were removed and most of the displaced residents were settled into new homes, although reconstruction of houses in the burned area continues as of 2008. In 2007,

9672-423: The uncontrolled release of radiation or a toxic chemical may have immediate short-term safety consequences, more protracted health impacts, and much longer-term environmental impacts . Events such as Chernobyl , for example, caused immediate deaths, and in the longer term, deaths from cancers, and left a lasting environmental impact leading to birth defects , impacts on wildlife, etc. Information technology (IT)

9776-533: The uncontrolled use of fire in land-clearing and agriculture such as the slash-and-burn farming in Southeast Asia. In the tropics , farmers often practice the slash-and-burn method of clearing fields during the dry season . In middle latitudes , the most common human causes of wildfires are equipment generating sparks (chainsaws, grinders, mowers, etc.), overhead power lines , and arson . Arson may account for over 20% of human caused fires. However, in

9880-936: The use of planes, helicopter, or UAVs can provide a wider view and may be sufficient to monitor very large, low risk areas. These more sophisticated systems employ GPS and aircraft-mounted infrared or high-resolution visible cameras to identify and target wildfires. Satellite-mounted sensors such as Envisat 's Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer and European Remote-Sensing Satellite 's Along-Track Scanning Radiometer can measure infrared radiation emitted by fires, identifying hot spots greater than 39 °C (102 °F). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 's Hazard Mapping System combines remote-sensing data from satellite sources such as Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for detection of fire and smoke plume locations. However, satellite detection

9984-411: The wildfires. While direct emissions of harmful pollutants can affect first responders and residents, wildfire smoke can also be transported over long distances and impact air quality across local, regional, and global scales. The health effects of wildfire smoke, such as worsening cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, extend beyond immediate exposure, contributing to nearly 16,000 annual deaths,

10088-519: The world may employ techniques such as wildland fire use (WFU) and prescribed or controlled burns . Wildland fire use refers to any fire of natural causes that is monitored but allowed to burn. Controlled burns are fires ignited by government agencies under less dangerous weather conditions. Other objectives can include maintenance of healthy forests, rangelands, and wetlands, and support of ecosystem diversity. Strategies for wildfire prevention, detection, control and suppression have varied over

10192-540: The world, such as those in Burning Mountain , New South Wales; Centralia , Pennsylvania; and several coal-sustained fires in China . They can also flare up unexpectedly and ignite nearby flammable material. (Fire) Good luck deleting this, Frost! (Fire) The spread of wildfires varies based on the flammable material present, its vertical arrangement and moisture content, and weather conditions. Fuel arrangement and density

10296-466: The years. One common and inexpensive technique to reduce the risk of uncontrolled wildfires is controlled burning : intentionally igniting smaller less-intense fires to minimize the amount of flammable material available for a potential wildfire. Vegetation may be burned periodically to limit the accumulation of plants and other debris that may serve as fuel, while also maintaining high species diversity. While other people claim that controlled burns and

10400-521: Was assigned to assess the damage and to implement a rehabilitation plan to reduce further natural resource damage. During July 2000, about 7000 hydromulching and hydroseeding flights by air tractors were carried out on 1,600 acres (6.5 km) of the burned area to reduce erosion and speed revegetation. A local trail work organization, Volunteer Task Force, devoted many thousands of hours to rebuilding trails and planting trees. Local school children made many thousands of "seed balls", which they broadcast in

10504-562: Was constructed in the canyon upstream of LACEF to temporarily contain flash floods that might result if an intense thunderstorm happened to rain heavily on the terrain drained by Pajarito Canyon. Runoff was monitored at multiple stations in the headwater streams above Pajarito Canyon. In the event, the monsoon of the summer of 2000 was not particularly intense, and damage from flooding was generally minimal. No severe flooding occurred in Pajarito Canyon before vegetation upstream had recovered sufficiently, over several years, to retain runoff, and

10608-414: Was formed by representatives of Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos County, Bandelier National Monument, Santa Fe National Forest , State of New Mexico, and Pueblo agencies. The Pajarito Plateau saw high levels of precipitation throughout the early 1990s followed by a drought in the latter half of the decade. By 2000, conditions were ideal for a major forest fire on the plateau. Forest deadfall had

10712-534: Was high on Cerro Grande, a 10,200-foot (3110-m) summit on the rim of the Valles Caldera not far north of New Mexico State Road 4 , the main highway through Los Alamos County . Like many mountains in the Jemez , Cerro Grande was mainly covered with coniferous forest , composed largely of Ponderosa pine , Douglas fir , white fir , and aspen trees, with a characteristic rincon (meadow) on its southern slopes near

10816-762: Was organized in South Africa's Kruger National Park to validate fire detection products including the new VIIRS active fire data. In advance of that campaign, the Meraka Institute of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research in Pretoria, South Africa, an early adopter of the VIIRS 375 m fire product, put it to use during several large wildfires in Kruger. Since 2021 NASA has provided active fire locations in near real-time via

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