50-673: The Anglo-Bavarian Brewery was originally established in Shepton Mallet in Somerset , England in 1864. It has been claimed as the first lager brewery in the United Kingdom , although the claim is disputed. It closed in 1920. The building, now the Anglo Trading Estate , is a grade II* listed building and is on English Heritage's Heritage at Risk Register , and Mendip District Council's Historic Buildings at Risk Register. The brewery
100-502: A 1974 article by The New York Times , Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Julius Shiskin suggested that a rough translation of the bureau's qualitative definition of a recession into a quantitative one that almost anyone can use might run like this: Over the years, some commentators dropped most of Shiskin's "recession-spotting" criteria for the simplistic rule-of-thumb of a decline in real GNI for two consecutive quarters. In
150-409: A balance sheet recession would be appropriate. However, Krugman argued that monetary policy could also affect savings behavior, as inflation or credible promises of future inflation (generating negative real interest rates) would encourage less savings. In other words, people would tend to spend more rather than save if they believe inflation is on the horizon. In more technical terms, Krugman argues that
200-506: A comprehensive assessment of the depth and breadth of economic downturns, enabling policymakers to devise more effective strategies for economic stabilization and recovery. Recessions in the United Kingdom are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by the seasonal adjusted quarter-on-quarter figures for real GDP . The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) defines
250-463: A key demand component of GDP, fell enormously (22% of GDP) between 1990 and its peak decline in 2003. Japanese firms overall became net savers after 1998, as opposed to borrowers. Koo argues that it was massive fiscal stimulus (borrowing and spending by the government) that offset this decline and enabled Japan to maintain its level of GDP. In his view, this avoided a U.S. type Great Depression , in which U.S. GDP fell by 46%. He argued that monetary policy
300-498: A liquidity trap is expanding the money supply via quantitative easing or other techniques in which money is effectively printed to purchase assets, thereby creating inflationary expectations that cause savers to begin spending again. Government stimulus spending and mercantilist policies to stimulate exports and reduce imports are other techniques to stimulate demand. He estimated in March 2010 that developed countries representing 70% of
350-833: A recession as a period of at least two years during which the cumulative output gap reaches at least 2% of GDP, and the output gap is at least 1% for at least one year. Recession can be defined as decline of GDP per capita instead of decline of total GDP. A recession encompasses multiple attributes that often occur simultaneously and encompasses declines in component measures of economic activity, such as GDP, including consumption, investment, government spending, and net export activity. These summary measures are indicative of underlying drivers such as employment levels and skills, household savings rates, corporate investment decisions, interest rates, demographics, and government policies (Smith, 2018; Johnson & Thompson, 2020). By examining these factors comprehensively, economists gain insights into
400-493: A recession including the availability heuristic , the money illusion , and normalcy bias . Excessive levels of indebtedness or the bursting of a real estate or financial asset price bubble can cause what is called a "balance sheet recession". This occurs when large numbers of consumers or corporations pay down debt (i.e., save) rather than spend or invest, which slows the economy. The term balance sheet derives from an accounting identity that holds that assets must always equal
450-427: A recession. Economist Hyman Minsky also described a "paradox of deleveraging" as financial institutions that have too much leverage (debt relative to equity) cannot all de-leverage simultaneously without significant declines in the value of their assets. In April 2009, U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen discussed these paradoxes: "Once this massive credit crunch hit, it didn't take long before we were in
500-619: A recession. The recession, in turn, deepened the credit crunch as demand and employment fell, and credit losses of financial institutions surged. Indeed, we have been in the grips of precisely this adverse feedback loop for more than a year. A process of balance sheet deleveraging has spread to nearly every corner of the economy. Consumers are pulling back on purchases, especially durable goods, to build their savings. Businesses are cancelling planned investments and laying off workers to preserve cash. And financial institutions are shrinking assets to bolster capital and improve their chances of weathering
550-455: A reliable recession predictor. The curve began re-steepening toward positive territory in June 2024, as it had at other points during that inversion; in every previous inversion they examined; Deutsche Bank analysts found the curve had re-steepened before a recession began. The following variables and indicators are used by economists, like e.g. Paul Krugman or Joseph Stiglitz , to try to predict
SECTION 10
#1732858171730600-415: A self-reinforcing downward cycle, bringing about or worsening a recession. Consumer confidence is one measure used to evaluate economic sentiment. The term animal spirits has been used to describe the psychological factors underlying economic activity. Keynes, in his The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money , was the first economist to claim that such emotional mindsets significantly affect
650-509: Is a widespread drop in spending (an adverse demand shock ). This may be triggered by various events, such as a financial crisis , an external trade shock, an adverse supply shock , the bursting of an economic bubble , or a large-scale anthropogenic or natural disaster (e.g. a pandemic ). There is no official definition of a recession, according to the IMF . In the United States , a recession
700-627: Is defined as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP , real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." The European Union has adopted a similar definition. In the United Kingdom and Canada , a recession is defined as negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters. Governments usually respond to recessions by adopting expansionary macroeconomic policies , such as increasing money supply and decreasing interest rates or increasing government spending and decreasing taxation . In
750-511: Is not an official designation" and that instead, "The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research". The European Union, akin to the NBER's methodology, has embraced a definition of recession that integrates GDP alongside a spectrum of macroeconomic indicators, including employment and various other metrics. This approach allows for
800-624: Is referred to as an economic depression , although some argue that their causes and cures can be different. As an informal shorthand, economists sometimes refer to different recession shapes , such as V-shaped , U-shaped , L-shaped and W-shaped recessions. The type and shape of recessions are distinctive. In the US, v-shaped, or short-and-sharp contractions followed by rapid and sustained recovery, occurred in 1954 and 1990–1991; U-shaped (prolonged slump) in 1974–1975, and W-shaped, or double-dip recessions in 1949 and 1980–1982. Japan's 1993–1994 recession
850-530: The (inverted) yield curve appear to be more useful to predict a recession ahead of time than other variables, no single variable has proven to be an always reliable predictor whether recessions will actually (soon) appear, let alone predicting their sharpness and severity in terms of duration. The longest and deepest Treasury yield curve inversion in history began in July 2022, as the Federal Reserve sharply increased
900-662: The United States , the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. The NBER, a private economic research organization, defines an economic recession as: "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP , real income , employment, industrial production , and wholesale - retail sales ". The NBER also explains that: "a recession begins when
950-450: The fed funds rate to combat the 2021–2023 inflation surge . Despite widespread predictions by economists and market analysts of an imminent recession, none had materialized by July 2024, economic growth remained steady, and a Reuters survey of economists that month found they expected the economy to continue growing for the next two years. An earlier survey of bond market strategists found a majority no longer believed an inverted curve to be
1000-608: The private sector as it pays down its debt. For example, economist Richard Koo wrote that Japan's "Great Recession" that began in 1990 was a "balance sheet recession". It was triggered by a collapse in land and stock prices, which caused Japanese firms to have negative equity , meaning their assets were worth less than their liabilities. Despite zero interest rates and expansion of the money supply to encourage borrowing, Japanese corporations in aggregate opted to pay down their debts from their own business earnings rather than borrow to invest as firms typically do. Corporate investment,
1050-562: The Anglo-Bavarian Brewery also provided the services of its fire brigade to the town (and the wider surrounding area) between 1868 and 1921. The brewery fire brigade were called upon many times, most notably in 1904 for a fire at Shepton Mallet Prison . The reasons for the decline of the Anglo-Bavarian Brewery are various. Amongst them is anti-German feeling following the outbreak of the First World War in 1914. The inclusion of
SECTION 20
#17328581717301100-679: The beer brewed at the Anglo-Bavarian was sold throughout England and the Channel Islands by 250 agents. However the brewery’s main area of sales was export. Beginning in 1875, beer was transported to a bottler in London, from where it was shipped to Australia , New Zealand , India , South Africa , South America and the West Indies . Overseas sales were in the order of 1.8 million bottles per year. As well as providing employment to Shepton Mallet,
1150-536: The brewery was employing only a few men and the Garton Company which still owned the Anglo Brewery was reviewing its business interests. In April 1921 all of the machinery, plant and other fittings of the brewery were put up for sale by auction, from the office furniture to the one remaining cart horse named Darling. In August of that year the brewery site itself, and all of the brewery’s lands including Bowlish House,
1200-602: The buildings began their new life as the Anglo Trading Estate, providing warehousing and distribution to a range of expanding local businesses such as Clarks the shoe-makers. The Air Ministry returned the remainder of the site in 1964. Ownership of the Trading Estate later passed to J H Haskins & Son Ltd , owners of the prominent furniture store in Shepton Mallet. In March 2008, they published plans to redevelop
1250-480: The complex dynamics that contribute to economic downturns and can formulate effective strategies for mitigating their impact (Anderson, 2019; Patel, 2017). Economist Richard C. Koo wrote that under ideal conditions, a country's economy should have the household sector as net savers and the corporate sector as net borrowers, with the government budget nearly balanced and net exports near zero. A severe (GDP down by 10%) or prolonged (three or four years) recession
1300-410: The current storm. Once again, Minsky understood this dynamic. He spoke of the paradox of deleveraging, in which precautions that may be smart for individuals and firms—and indeed essential to return the economy to a normal state—nevertheless magnify the distress of the economy as a whole." There are many reasons why recessions happen. One overall reason can be lack of demand due to sharp developments in
1350-510: The decline in property values experienced during the subprime mortgage crisis. Further, reduced consumption due to higher household leverage can account for a significant decline in employment levels. Policies that help reduce mortgage debt or household leverage could therefore have stimulative effects (Smith & Johnson, 2012). A liquidity trap is a Keynesian theory that a situation can develop in which interest rates reach near zero ( zero interest-rate policy ) yet do not effectively stimulate
1400-400: The details below. Request from 172.68.168.226 via cp1108 cp1108, Varnish XID 751259110 Upstream caches: cp1108 int Error: 429, Too Many Requests at Fri, 29 Nov 2024 05:29:31 GMT Recession Heterodox In economics , a recession is a business cycle contraction that occurs when there is a period of broad decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there
1450-479: The economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its through." The NBER is considered the official arbiter of recession start and end dates for the United States. The Bureau of Economic Analysis , an independent federal agency that provides official macroeconomic and industry statistics, says "the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth
1500-442: The economy. Economist Robert J. Shiller wrote that the term "refers also to the sense of trust we have in each other, our sense of fairness in economic dealings, and our sense of the extent of corruption and bad faith. When animal spirits are on ebb, consumers do not want to spend and businesses do not want to make capital expenditures or hire people." Behavioral economics has also explained many psychological biases that may trigger
1550-475: The economy. In theory, near-zero interest rates should encourage firms and consumers to borrow and spend. However, if too many individuals or corporations focus on saving or paying down debt rather than spending, lower interest rates have less effect on investment and consumption behavior; increasing the money supply is like " pushing on a string ". Economist Paul Krugman described the U.S. 2009 recession and Japan's lost decade as liquidity traps. One remedy to
Anglo-Bavarian Brewery - Misplaced Pages Continue
1600-558: The following are considered possible predictors: Manufacturing: Industrial Production: Chemical Activity: Transportation: Corporate Profits: Employment: Personal Income: Household Savings and Consumer Debt: Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence and Consumer Expenditures: Housing and non-residential construction: Credit Markets: Business Expectations: Margin of stock market traders: Asset Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Unorthodox Recession Indicators: Overview of recession indicators: Sahm Recession Indicator signals
1650-449: The following categories: Economic factors: Financial factors: External shocks Summary: Why recessions happen is a complex phenomena often resulting from a interplay of various factors. While these factors can individually contribute to a recession, the cumulative impact of several occurring simultaneously can significantly amplify the negative effect on the economy. Recessions are very challenging to predict. While some variables like
1700-601: The lighter beers brewed upon the Bavarian lines" which, it has been claimed, supports the belief that the Anglo-Bavarian was brewing a form of lager. However Barnard's account of his own visit to the brewery only mentions "running" ale (for immediate consumption) and "stock ale", and newspaper advertisements for the Anglo-Bavarian Brewery Company in the mid-1870s show it brewing pale ale, mild ale, strong ale, porter, stout and amber ale, but not lager. The brewery site
1750-496: The possibility of a recession: Except for the above, there are no known completely reliable predictors. Analysis by Prakash Loungani of the International Monetary Fund found that only two of the sixty recessions around the world during the 1990s had been predicted by a consensus of economists one year earlier, while there were zero consensus predictions one year earlier for the 49 recessions during 2009. However,
1800-419: The prices of the inputs used in producing goods and services. Another main reason can be problems e.g. in financial markets. Because recessions have many likely explanations, it is demanding to predict them. Some variables might at first glance be the causes of recessions, but they could also be the results of a recession, which means they are endogenous to recessions. One can summarize the causes of recessions in
1850-484: The private sector savings curve is elastic even during a balance sheet recession (responsive to changes in real interest rates), disagreeing with Koo's view that it is inelastic (non-responsive to changes in real interest rates). A July 2012 survey of balance sheet recession research reported that consumer demand and employment are affected by household leverage levels. Both durable and non-durable goods consumption declined as households moved from low to high leverage with
1900-524: The site to include a hotel and conference facilities, as well as shops, offices, pubs, cafes, restaurants, a recording studio and housing. It is used for the production of Brothers Cider . It is included in the Heritage at Risk Register produced by English Heritage . Shepton Mallet Too Many Requests If you report this error to the Wikimedia System Administrators, please include
1950-556: The sum of liabilities plus equity. If asset prices fall below the value of the debt incurred to purchase them, then the equity must be negative, meaning the consumer or corporation is insolvent. Economist Paul Krugman wrote in 2014 that "the best working hypothesis seems to be that the financial crisis was only one manifestation of a broader problem of excessive debt—that it was a so-called "balance sheet recession". In Krugman's view, such crises require debt reduction strategies combined with higher government spending to offset declines from
2000-467: The water supply. Below these were the malting floors, supplied via wooden shoots, and kilns, one of which was measured as being 50 feet (15 m) by 14 feet (4.3 m). In 1871, the business was sold by auction to Hill, Garton and Company of Southampton , who subsequently expanded and modernised it. In 1872 the Pale Ale Brewery was renamed the Anglo-Bavarian Brewery. It has been asserted that this
2050-445: The word Bavarian on the label of the brewery's bottles led to them being removed from shop shelves throughout the United Kingdom and overseas. The Brewery and its beer were quickly renamed as Anglo but this did not have much effect and trade rapidly declined. The post-war recession and the rise of the temperance movement also helped to damage the chances of the Shepton Mallet brewery returning to its earlier levels of success. By 1920
Anglo-Bavarian Brewery - Misplaced Pages Continue
2100-421: The world's GDP were caught in a liquidity trap. Behavior that may be optimal for an individual (e.g., saving more during adverse economic conditions) can be detrimental if too many individuals pursue the same behavior, as ultimately, one person's consumption is another person's income. Too many consumers attempting to save (or pay down debt) simultaneously is called the paradox of thrift and can cause or deepen
2150-489: Was U-shaped and its 8-out-of-9 quarters of contraction in 1997–1999 can be described as L-shaped. Korea , Hong Kong and South-east Asia experienced U-shaped recessions in 1997–1998, although Thailand 's eight consecutive quarters of decline should be termed L-shaped. Recessions have psychological and confidence aspects. For example, if companies expect economic activity to slow, they may reduce employment levels and save money rather than invest. Such expectations can create
2200-402: Was also put up for auction. The brewery buildings were again put up for sale in 1926, this time for demolition purposes. However, there was little interest and the site remained intact. In 1927 the site was bought by a Mr Bennett who began to install new machinery, and by 1934 a new Anglo-Bavarian Brewery company was registered to once again carry on beer and cider production. The word Bavarian
2250-644: Was built, in 1864, for Morrice, Cox and Clarke of London , and was initially called the Shepton Mallet Pale Ale Brewery. During the construction work on the site, pottery kilns used to make Severn Valley Ware, dating from the 1st to 2nd century were discovered. The limestone four-storey building was built in Italianate architecture, has five-storey towers at either side. The top floors, each 200 feet (61 m) long held barley and malt stores in six bins, each of which held 450 quarters and tanks for
2300-738: Was dropped again as the outbreak of the Second World War approached and in 1939 the brewery site (and all the machinery) was requisitioned by the Air Ministry . Cider production was transferred to a site in Darshill under the name of the Anglo Apple Mills. After the War, half the site was restored to the Bennett family, but again without any machinery which had been removed to aid the war effort. In April 1947
2350-571: Was in reference to the employment, by the new owners, of some brewers from Bavaria in order to produce a German -style beer , and that what is now called lager was brewed from that year. The writer Alfred Barnard, who visited the brewery in 1890, refers to a report from the British Commission on Beers which describes a beer from the Anglo-Bavarian brewery exhibited in Vienna as "combining the special properties of high class English Ales, with those of
2400-438: Was ineffective because there was limited demand for funds while firms paid down their liabilities. In a balance sheet recession, GDP declines by the amount of debt repayment and un-borrowed individual savings, leaving government stimulus spending as the primary remedy. Krugman discussed the balance sheet recession concept in 2010, agreeing with Koo's situation assessment and view that sustained deficit spending when faced with
2450-420: Was lit throughout by electricity by 1889, generated by a dynamo powered by a steam engine , allowing work to continue at night. In 1890 the brewery employed over 200 people (compared with about 50 in the early 1870s). There was no natural source of water on the brewery site and so water was supplied by the local water company. This was sufficient for a while but by the end of 19th century an additional source
2500-459: Was required. A spring was discovered at Bowlish which proved able to provide seemingly unlimited supplies of very pure water. Disposal of the effluents produced by the brewery were also a major problem and pollution of the River Sheppey was a source of much discontent amongst land owners further down the valley from 1877 until the closure of the brewery in 1921. In 1890 it was reported that
#729270