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102-418: The technological singularity —or simply the singularity —is a hypothetical future point in time at which technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in unforeseeable consequences for human civilization . According to the most popular version of the singularity hypothesis, I. J. Good 's intelligence explosion model of 1965, an upgradable intelligent agent could eventually enter

204-443: A consequent . P is the assumption in a (possibly counterfactual ) What If question. The adjective hypothetical , meaning "having the nature of a hypothesis", or "being assumed to exist as an immediate consequence of a hypothesis", can refer to any of these meanings of the term "hypothesis". In its ancient usage, hypothesis referred to a summary of the plot of a classical drama . The English word hypothesis comes from

306-536: A 2022 survey, the median year by which respondents expected "High-level machine intelligence" with 50% confidence is 2061. The survey defined the achievement of high-level machine intelligence as when unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers. In 2023, OpenAI leaders Sam Altman , Greg Brockman and Ilya Sutskever published recommendations for the governance of superintelligence, which they believe may happen in less than 10 years. In 2024, Ilya Sutskever left OpenAI to cofound

408-510: A broader way to refer to any radical changes in society brought about by new technology (such as molecular nanotechnology ), although Vinge and other writers specifically state that without superintelligence, such changes would not qualify as a true singularity. In 1965, I. J. Good wrote that it is more probable than not that an ultra-intelligent machine would be built in the twentieth century. In 1993, Vinge predicted greater-than-human intelligence between 2005 and 2030. In 1996, Yudkowsky predicted

510-829: A confidence of 50% that human-level AI would be developed by 2040–2050. Prominent technologists and academics dispute the plausibility of a technological singularity, including Paul Allen , Jeff Hawkins , John Holland , Jaron Lanier , Steven Pinker , Theodore Modis , and Gordon Moore , whose law is often cited in support of the concept. Most proposed methods for creating superhuman or transhuman minds fall into one of two categories: intelligence amplification of human brains and artificial intelligence. The many speculated ways to augment human intelligence include bioengineering , genetic engineering , nootropic drugs, AI assistants, direct brain–computer interfaces and mind uploading . These multiple possible paths to an intelligence explosion, all of which will presumably be pursued, makes

612-475: A convenient mathematical approach that simplifies cumbersome calculations . Cardinal Bellarmine gave a famous example of this usage in the warning issued to Galileo in the early 17th century: that he must not treat the motion of the Earth as a reality, but merely as a hypothesis. In common usage in the 21st century, a hypothesis refers to a provisional idea whose merit requires evaluation. For proper evaluation,

714-519: A formative phase. In recent years, philosophers of science have tried to integrate the various approaches to evaluating hypotheses, and the scientific method in general, to form a more complete system that integrates the individual concerns of each approach. Notably, Imre Lakatos and Paul Feyerabend , Karl Popper's colleague and student, respectively, have produced novel attempts at such a synthesis. Concepts in Hempel's deductive-nomological model play

816-465: A gradual ascent to the singularity, rather than Vinge's rapidly self-improving superhuman intelligence. Oft-cited dangers include those commonly associated with molecular nanotechnology and genetic engineering . These threats are major issues for both singularity advocates and critics, and were the subject of Bill Joy 's April 2000 Wired magazine article " Why The Future Doesn't Need Us ". Some intelligence technologies, like "seed AI", may also have

918-559: A grain of salt: perhaps differences in memory of recent and distant events could create an illusion of accelerating change where none exists. Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen argued the opposite of accelerating returns, the complexity brake; the more progress science makes towards understanding intelligence, the more difficult it becomes to make additional progress. A study of the number of patents shows that human creativity does not show accelerating returns, but in fact, as suggested by Joseph Tainter in his The Collapse of Complex Societies ,

1020-587: A human. Stanislaw Ulam reported in 1958 an earlier discussion with von Neumann "centered on the accelerating progress of technology and changes in human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue". Subsequent authors have echoed this viewpoint. The concept and the term "singularity" were popularized by Vernor Vinge  – first in 1983 (in an article that claimed that once humans create intelligences greater than their own, there will be

1122-430: A hypothesis must be falsifiable , and that one cannot regard a proposition or theory as scientific if it does not admit the possibility of being shown to be false. Other philosophers of science have rejected the criterion of falsifiability or supplemented it with other criteria, such as verifiability (e.g., verificationism ) or coherence (e.g., confirmation holism ). The scientific method involves experimentation to test

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1224-518: A hypothesis suggested or supported in some measure by features of observed facts, from which consequences may be deduced which can be tested by experiment and special observations, and which it is proposed to subject to an extended course of such investigation, with the hope that, even should the hypothesis thus be overthrown, such research may lead to a tenable theory. Superintelligence University of Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom defines superintelligence as "any intellect that greatly exceeds

1326-461: A key role in the development and testing of hypotheses. Most formal hypotheses connect concepts by specifying the expected relationships between propositions . When a set of hypotheses are grouped together, they become a type of conceptual framework . When a conceptual framework is complex and incorporates causality or explanation, it is generally referred to as a theory. According to noted philosopher of science Carl Gustav Hempel , Hempel provides

1428-399: A law of diminishing returns . The number of patents per thousand peaked in the period from 1850 to 1900, and has been declining since. The growth of complexity eventually becomes self-limiting, and leads to a widespread "general systems collapse". Hofstadter (2006) raises concern that Ray Kurzweil is not sufficiently scientifically rigorous, that an exponential tendency of technology is not

1530-405: A path to ASI. Additional viewpoints on the development and implications of superintelligence include: The pursuit of value-aligned AI faces several challenges: Current research directions include multi-stakeholder approaches to incorporate diverse perspectives, developing methods for scalable oversight of AI systems, and improving techniques for robust value learning. Al research progresses

1632-493: A pattern of exponential growth , following what he calls the " law of accelerating returns ". Whenever technology approaches a barrier, Kurzweil writes, new technologies will surmount it. He predicts paradigm shifts will become increasingly common, leading to "technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history". Kurzweil believes that the singularity will occur by approximately 2045. His predictions differ from Vinge's in that he predicts

1734-418: A positive feedback loop of self-improvement cycles, each successive; and more intelligent generation appearing more and more rapidly, causing a rapid increase ("explosion") in intelligence which would ultimately result in a powerful superintelligence , qualitatively far surpassing all human intelligence . The Hungarian-American mathematician John von Neumann (1903-1957) became the first known person to use

1836-560: A proposed new law of nature. In such an investigation, if the tested remedy shows no effect in a few cases, these do not necessarily falsify the hypothesis. Instead, statistical tests are used to determine how likely it is that the overall effect would be observed if the hypothesized relation does not exist. If that likelihood is sufficiently small (e.g., less than 1%), the existence of a relation may be assumed. Otherwise, any observed effect may be due to pure chance. In statistical hypothesis testing, two hypotheses are compared. These are called

1938-560: A recursively self-improving set of algorithms. First, the goal structure of the AI might self-modify, potentially causing the AI to optimise for something other than what was originally intended. Secondly, AIs could compete for the same scarce resources humankind uses to survive. While not actively malicious, AIs would promote the goals of their programming, not necessarily broader human goals, and thus might crowd out humans. Carl Shulman and Anders Sandberg suggest that algorithm improvements may be

2040-413: A scientific law like one of physics, and that exponential curves have no "knees". Nonetheless, he did not rule out the singularity in principle in the distant future and in the light of ChatGPT and other recent advancements has revised his opinion significantly towards dramatic technological change in the near future. Jaron Lanier denies that the singularity is inevitable: "I do not think the technology

2142-617: A singularity in 2021. In 2005, Kurzweil predicted human-level AI around 2029, and the singularity in 2045; and reaffirmed these predictions in 2024 in The Singularity is Nearer . In 1988, Hans Moravec predicted that if the rate of improvement continues, the computing capabilities for human-level AI would be available in supercomputers before 2010. In 1998, Moravec predicted human-level AI by 2040, and intelligence far beyond human by 2050. Four polls of AI researchers, conducted in 2012 and 2013 by Nick Bostrom and Vincent C. Müller , suggested

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2244-449: A singularity more likely. Robin Hanson expressed skepticism of human intelligence augmentation, writing that once the "low-hanging fruit" of easy methods for increasing human intelligence have been exhausted, further improvements will become increasingly difficult. Despite all of the speculated ways for amplifying human intelligence, non-human artificial intelligence (specifically seed AI) is

2346-714: A subjective year would pass in 30 physical seconds. Such a difference in information processing speed could drive the singularity. Technology forecasters and researchers disagree regarding when, or whether, human intelligence will likely be surpassed. Some argue that advances in artificial intelligence (AI) will probably result in general reasoning systems that bypass human cognitive limitations. Others believe that humans will evolve or directly modify their biology so as to achieve radically greater intelligence. A number of futures studies focus on scenarios that combine these possibilities, suggesting that humans are likely to interface with computers , or upload their minds to computers , in

2448-464: A superintelligent system might be able to thwart any subsequent attempts at control. Even with benign intentions, an ASI could potentially cause harm due to misaligned goals or unexpected interpretations of its objectives. Nick Bostrom provides a stark example of this risk: When we create the first superintelligent entity, we might make a mistake and give it goals that lead it to annihilate humankind, assuming its enormous intellectual advantage gives it

2550-424: A survey of the 100 most cited authors in AI (as of May 2013, according to Microsoft academic search), the median year by which respondents expected machines "that can carry out most human professions at least as well as a typical human" (assuming no global catastrophe occurs) with 10% confidence is 2024 (mean 2034, st. dev. 33 years), with 50% confidence is 2050 (mean 2072, st. dev. 110 years), and with 90% confidence

2652-513: A technological and social transition similar in some sense to "the knotted space-time at the center of a black hole",) and later in his 1993 essay The Coming Technological Singularity , (in which he wrote that it would signal the end of the human era, as the new superintelligence would continue to upgrade itself and would advance technologically at an incomprehensible rate). He wrote that he would be surprised if it occurred before 2005 or after 2030. Another significant contributor to wider circulation of

2754-512: A topic of increasing discussion in recent years, particularly with the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. Recent developments in AI, particularly in large language models (LLMs) based on the transformer architecture, have led to significant improvements in various tasks. Models like GPT-3 , GPT-4 , Claude 3.5 and others have demonstrated capabilities that some researchers argue approach or even exhibit aspects of artificial general intelligence (AGI). However,

2856-496: A true intelligence or merely something similar to intelligence is irrelevant if the net result is the same. Psychologist Steven Pinker stated in 2008: "There is not the slightest reason to believe in a coming singularity. The fact that you can visualize a future in your imagination is not evidence that it is likely or even possible. Look at domed cities, jet-pack commuting, underwater cities, mile-high buildings, and nuclear-powered automobiles—all staples of futuristic fantasies when I

2958-411: A useful metaphor that describes the relationship between a conceptual framework and the framework as it is observed and perhaps tested (interpreted framework). "The whole system floats, as it were, above the plane of observation and is anchored to it by rules of interpretation. These might be viewed as strings which are not part of the network but link certain points of the latter with specific places in

3060-416: A way that enables substantial intelligence amplification. Some researchers believe that superintelligence will likely follow shortly after the development of artificial general intelligence . The first generally intelligent machines are likely to immediately hold an enormous advantage in at least some forms of mental capability, including the capacity of perfect recall , a vastly superior knowledge base, and

3162-433: A way that enables substantial intelligence amplification. The book The Age of Em by Robin Hanson describes a hypothetical future scenario in which human brains are scanned and digitized, creating "uploads" or digital versions of human consciousness. In this future, the development of these uploads may precede or coincide with the emergence of superintelligent artificial intelligence. Some writers use "the singularity" in

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3264-424: A working hypothesis is constructed as a statement of expectations, which can be linked to the exploratory research purpose in empirical investigation. Working hypotheses are often used as a conceptual framework in qualitative research. The provisional nature of working hypotheses makes them useful as an organizing device in applied research. Here they act like a useful guide to address problems that are still in

3366-438: Is 2070 (mean 2168, st. dev. 342 years). These estimates exclude the 1.2% of respondents who said no year would ever reach 10% confidence, the 4.1% who said 'never' for 50% confidence, and the 16.5% who said 'never' for 90% confidence. Respondents assigned a median 50% probability to the possibility that machine superintelligence will be invented within 30 years of the invention of approximately human-level machine intelligence. In

3468-417: Is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon . For a hypothesis to be a scientific hypothesis , the scientific method requires that one can test it. Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous observations that cannot satisfactorily be explained with the available scientific theories. Even though the words "hypothesis" and " theory " are often used interchangeably, a scientific hypothesis

3570-744: Is coming to function like a global brain with capacities far exceeding its component agents. If this systemic superintelligence relies heavily on artificial components, however, it may qualify as an AI rather than as a biology-based superorganism . A prediction market is sometimes considered as an example of a working collective intelligence system, consisting of humans only (assuming algorithms are not used to inform decisions). A final method of intelligence amplification would be to directly enhance individual humans, as opposed to enhancing their social or reproductive dynamics. This could be achieved using nootropics , somatic gene therapy , or brain−computer interfaces . However, Bostrom expresses skepticism about

3672-426: Is creating itself. It's not an autonomous process." Furthermore: "The reason to believe in human agency over technological determinism is that you can then have an economy where people earn their own way and invent their own lives. If you structure a society on not emphasizing individual human agency, it's the same thing operationally as denying people clout, dignity, and self-determination ... to embrace [the idea of

3774-511: Is developed, it could run serially on very fast hardware, and the abundance of cheap hardware would make AI research less constrained. An abundance of accumulated hardware that can be unleashed once the software figures out how to use it has been called "computing overhang". Some critics, like philosopher Hubert Dreyfus and philosopher John Searle , assert that computers or machines cannot achieve human intelligence . Others, like physicist Stephen Hawking , object that whether machines can achieve

3876-573: Is morally right, relying on the AI's superior cognitive capacities to figure out just which actions fit that description. We can call this proposal "moral rightness" (MR)   ... MR would also appear to have some disadvantages. It relies on the notion of "morally right", a notoriously difficult concept, one with which philosophers have grappled since antiquity without yet attaining consensus as to its analysis. Picking an erroneous explication of "moral rightness" could result in outcomes that would be morally very wrong   ... One might try to preserve

3978-423: Is not the same as a scientific theory . A working hypothesis is a provisionally accepted hypothesis proposed for further research in a process beginning with an educated guess or thought. A different meaning of the term hypothesis is used in formal logic , to denote the antecedent of a proposition ; thus in the proposition "If P , then Q ", P denotes the hypothesis (or antecedent); Q can be called

4080-587: Is rapidly progressing towards superintelligence, addressing these design challenges remains crucial for creating ASI systems that are both powerful and aligned with human interests. The development of artificial superintelligence (ASI) has raised concerns about potential existential risks to humanity. Researchers have proposed various scenarios in which an ASI could pose a significant threat: Some researchers argue that through recursive self-improvement, an ASI could rapidly become so powerful as to be beyond human control. This concept, known as an "intelligence explosion",

4182-438: Is referred to as Seed AI because if an AI were created with engineering capabilities that matched or surpassed those of its human creators, it would have the potential to autonomously improve its own software and hardware to design an even more capable machine, which could repeat the process in turn. This recursive self-improvement could accelerate, potentially allowing enormous qualitative change before any upper limits imposed by

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4284-474: Is resulting in a slow, centuries-long reduction in human intelligence and that this process instead is likely to continue. There is no scientific consensus concerning either possibility and in both cases, the biological change would be slow, especially relative to rates of cultural change. Selective breeding , nootropics , epigenetic modulation , and genetic engineering could improve human intelligence more rapidly. Bostrom writes that if we come to understand

4386-412: Is slowing, even while Moore's prediction of exponentially increasing circuit density continues to hold. This is due to excessive heat build-up from the chip, which cannot be dissipated quickly enough to prevent the chip from melting when operating at higher speeds. Advances in speed may be possible in the future by virtue of more power-efficient CPU designs and multi-cell processors. Theodore Modis holds

4488-473: Is where computing power approaches infinity in a finite amount of time. In this version, once AIs are performing the research to improve themselves, speed doubles e.g. after 2 years, then 1 year, then 6 months, then 3 months, then 1.5 months, etc., where the infinite sum of the doubling periods is 4 years. Unless prevented by physical limits of computation and time quantization, this process would literally achieve infinite computing power in 4 years, properly earning

4590-401: The ancient Greek word ὑπόθεσις hypothesis whose literal or etymological sense is "putting or placing under" and hence in extended use has many other meanings including "supposition". In Plato 's Meno (86e–87b), Socrates dissects virtue with a method used by mathematicians, that of "investigating from a hypothesis". In this sense, 'hypothesis' refers to a clever idea or to

4692-460: The human brain , as well as taking up a lot less space. The exponential growth in computing technology suggested by Moore's law is commonly cited as a reason to expect a singularity in the relatively near future, and a number of authors have proposed generalizations of Moore's law. Computer scientist and futurist Hans Moravec proposed in a 1998 book that the exponential growth curve could be extended back through earlier computing technologies prior to

4794-516: The integrated circuit . Ray Kurzweil postulates a law of accelerating returns in which the speed of technological change (and more generally, all evolutionary processes) increases exponentially, generalizing Moore's law in the same manner as Moravec's proposal, and also including material technology (especially as applied to nanotechnology ), medical technology and others. Between 1986 and 2007, machines' application-specific capacity to compute information per capita roughly doubled every 14 months;

4896-463: The null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis . The null hypothesis is the hypothesis that states that there is no relation between the phenomena whose relation is under investigation, or at least not of the form given by the alternative hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis, as the name suggests, is the alternative to the null hypothesis: it states that there is some kind of relation. The alternative hypothesis may take several forms, depending on

4998-481: The 2015 NeurIPS and ICML machine learning conferences asked about the chance that "the intelligence explosion argument is broadly correct". Of the respondents, 12% said it was "quite likely", 17% said it was "likely", 21% said it was "about even", 24% said it was "unlikely" and 26% said it was "quite unlikely". Both for human and artificial intelligence, hardware improvements increase the rate of future hardware improvements. An analogy to Moore's Law suggests that if

5100-525: The Internet, DNA, the transistor, or nuclear energy – had been observed in the previous twenty years while five of them would have been expected according to the exponential trend advocated by the proponents of the technological singularity. AI researcher Jürgen Schmidhuber stated that the frequency of subjectively "notable events" appears to be approaching a 21st-century singularity, but cautioned readers to take such plots of subjective events with

5202-461: The Singularity] would be a celebration of bad data and bad politics." Economist Robert J. Gordon points out that measured economic growth slowed around 1970 and slowed even further since the financial crisis of 2007–2008 , and argues that the economic data show no trace of a coming Singularity as imagined by mathematician I. J. Good . Hypothetical A hypothesis ( pl. : hypotheses )

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5304-405: The ability of some hypothesis to adequately answer the question under investigation. In contrast, unfettered observation is not as likely to raise unexplained issues or open questions in science, as would the formulation of a crucial experiment to test the hypothesis. A thought experiment might also be used to test the hypothesis. In framing a hypothesis, the investigator must not currently know

5406-505: The ability to multitask in ways not possible to biological entities. This may allow them to — either as a single being or as a new species — become much more powerful than humans, and displace them. Several scientists and forecasters have been arguing for prioritizing early research into the possible benefits and risks of human and machine cognitive enhancement , because of the potential social impact of such technologies. The feasibility of artificial superintelligence ( ASI ) has been

5508-713: The basic idea of the MR model while reducing its demandingness by focusing on moral permissibility : the idea being that we could let the AI pursue humanity's CEV so long as it did not act in morally impermissible ways. Since Bostrom's analysis, new approaches to AI value alignment have emerged: The rapid advancement of transformer-based LLMs has led to speculation about their potential path to ASI. Some researchers argue that scaled-up versions of these models could exhibit ASI-like capabilities: However, critics argue that current LLMs lack true understanding and are merely sophisticated pattern matchers, raising questions about their suitability as

5610-540: The basic intelligence of the human brain, which has not, according to Paul R. Ehrlich , changed significantly for millennia. However, with the increasing power of computers and other technologies, it might eventually be possible to build a machine that is significantly more intelligent than humans. If a superhuman intelligence were to be invented—either through the amplification of human intelligence or through artificial intelligence—it would, in theory, vastly improve over human problem-solving and inventive skills. Such an AI

5712-692: The challenge of controlling a superintelligent AI might be fundamentally unsolvable, emphasizing the need for extreme caution in ASI development. Not all researchers agree on the likelihood or severity of ASI-related existential risks. Some, like Rodney Brooks , argue that fears of superintelligent AI are overblown and based on unrealistic assumptions about the nature of intelligence and technological progress. Others, such as Joanna Bryson , contend that anthropomorphizing AI systems leads to misplaced concerns about their potential threats. The rapid advancement of LLMs and other AI technologies has intensified debates about

5814-451: The changes that human intelligence brought: humans changed the world thousands of times more rapidly than evolution had done, and in totally different ways. Similarly, the evolution of life was a massive departure and acceleration from the previous geological rates of change, and improved intelligence could cause change to be as different again. There are substantial dangers associated with an intelligence explosion singularity originating from

5916-694: The claim that current LLMs constitute AGI is controversial. Critics argue that these models, while impressive, still lack true understanding and are primarily sophisticated pattern matching systems. Philosopher David Chalmers argues that AGI is a likely path to ASI. He posits that AI can achieve equivalence to human intelligence, be extended to surpass it, and then be amplified to dominate humans across arbitrary tasks. More recent research has explored various potential pathways to superintelligence: Artificial systems have several potential advantages over biological intelligence: Recent advancements in transformer-based models have led some researchers to speculate that

6018-816: The cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest". The program Fritz falls short of this conception of superintelligence—even though it is much better than humans at chess—because Fritz cannot outperform humans in other tasks. Technological researchers disagree about how likely present-day human intelligence is to be surpassed. Some argue that advances in artificial intelligence (AI) will probably result in general reasoning systems that lack human cognitive limitations. Others believe that humans will evolve or directly modify their biology to achieve radically greater intelligence. Several future study scenarios combine elements from both of these possibilities, suggesting that humans are likely to interface with computers , or upload their minds to computers , in

6120-446: The concept in terms of the technological creation of super intelligence, arguing that it is difficult or impossible for present-day humans to predict what human beings' lives would be like in a post-singularity world. The related concept "speed superintelligence" describes an AI that can function like a human mind, only much faster. For example, with a million-fold increase in the speed of information processing relative to that of humans,

6222-413: The concept of a "singularity" in the technological context. Alan Turing , often regarded as the father of modern computer science, laid a crucial foundation for the contemporary discourse on the technological singularity. His pivotal 1950 paper, "Computing Machinery and Intelligence," introduces the idea of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behavior equivalent to or indistinguishable from that of

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6324-454: The design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an 'intelligence explosion', and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control. One version of intelligence explosion

6426-401: The external world. These examples highlight the potential for catastrophic outcomes even when an ASI is not explicitly designed to be harmful, underscoring the critical importance of precise goal specification and alignment. Researchers have proposed various approaches to mitigate risks associated with ASI: Despite these proposed strategies, some experts, such as Roman Yampolskiy, argue that

6528-446: The first doubling of speed took 18 months, the second would take 18 subjective months; or 9 external months, whereafter, four months, two months, and so on towards a speed singularity. Some upper limit on speed may eventually be reached. Jeff Hawkins has stated that a self-improving computer system would inevitably run into upper limits on computing power: "in the end there are limits to how big and fast computers can run. We would end up in

6630-401: The first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control. This scenario presents the AI control problem: how to create an ASI that will benefit humanity while avoiding unintended harmful consequences. Eliezer Yudkowsky argues that solving this problem is crucial before ASI is developed, as

6732-484: The framer of a hypothesis needs to define specifics in operational terms. A hypothesis requires more work by the researcher in order to either confirm or disprove it. In due course, a confirmed hypothesis may become part of a theory or occasionally may grow to become a theory itself. Normally, scientific hypotheses have the form of a mathematical model . Sometimes, but not always, one can also formulate them as existential statements , stating that some particular instance of

6834-480: The genetic component of intelligence, pre-implantation genetic diagnosis could be used to select for embryos with as much as 4 points of IQ gain (if one embryo is selected out of two), or with larger gains (e.g., up to 24.3 IQ points gained if one embryo is selected out of 1000). If this process is iterated over many generations, the gains could be an order of magnitude improvement. Bostrom suggests that deriving new gametes from embryonic stem cells could be used to iterate

6936-475: The hypothesis is proven to be either "true" or "false" through a verifiability - or falsifiability -oriented experiment . Any useful hypothesis will enable predictions by reasoning (including deductive reasoning ). It might predict the outcome of an experiment in a laboratory setting or the observation of a phenomenon in nature . The prediction may also invoke statistics and only talk about probabilities. Karl Popper , following others, has argued that

7038-437: The improved hardware, or to program factories appropriately. An AI rewriting its own source code could do so while contained in an AI box . Second, as with Vernor Vinge 's conception of the singularity, it is much harder to predict the outcome. While speed increases seem to be only a quantitative difference from human intelligence, actual algorithm improvements would be qualitatively different. Eliezer Yudkowsky compares it to

7140-486: The incentive to invest in the technologies that would be required to bring about the Singularity. Job displacement is increasingly no longer limited to those types of work traditionally considered to be "routine". Theodore Modis and Jonathan Huebner argue that the rate of technological innovation has not only ceased to rise, but is actually now declining. Evidence for this decline is that the rise in computer clock rates

7242-628: The laws of physics may eventually prevent further improvement. There are two logically independent, but mutually reinforcing, causes of intelligence improvements: increases in the speed of computation, and improvements to the algorithms used. The former is predicted by Moore's Law and the forecasted improvements in hardware, and is comparatively similar to previous technological advances. But Schulman and Sandberg argue that software will present more complex challenges than simply operating on hardware capable of running at human intelligence levels or beyond. A 2017 email survey of authors with publications at

7344-400: The laws of physics or theoretical computation set in. It is speculated that over many iterations, such an AI would far surpass human cognitive abilities . I. J. Good speculated that superhuman intelligence might bring about an intelligence explosion: Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since

7446-421: The limiting factor for a singularity; while hardware efficiency tends to improve at a steady pace, software innovations are more unpredictable and may be bottlenecked by serial, cumulative research. They suggest that in the case of a software-limited singularity, intelligence explosion would actually become more likely than with a hardware-limited singularity, because in the software-limited case, once human-level AI

7548-657: The lines between narrow AI, AGI, and ASI. However, this view remains controversial. Critics argue that current models, while impressive, still lack crucial aspects of general intelligence such as true understanding, reasoning, and adaptability across diverse domains. The debate over whether the path to ASI will involve a distinct AGI phase or a more direct scaling of current technologies remains ongoing, with significant implications for AI development strategies and safety considerations. Despite these potential advantages, there are significant challenges and uncertainties in achieving ASI: As research in AI continues to advance rapidly,

7650-570: The most popular option among the hypotheses that would advance the singularity. The possibility of an intelligence explosion depends on three factors. The first accelerating factor is the new intelligence enhancements made possible by each previous improvement. Contrariwise, as the intelligences become more advanced, further advances will become more and more complicated, possibly outweighing the advantage of increased intelligence. Each improvement should generate at least one more improvement, on average, for movement towards singularity to continue. Finally,

7752-516: The name "singularity" for the final state. This form of intelligence explosion is described in Yudkowsky (1996). A superintelligence, hyperintelligence, or superhuman intelligence is a hypothetical agent that possesses intelligence far surpassing that of the brightest and most gifted human minds. "Superintelligence" may also refer to the form or degree of intelligence possessed by such an agent. John von Neumann , Vernor Vinge and Ray Kurzweil define

7854-440: The nature of the hypothesized relation; in particular, it can be two-sided (for example: there is some effect, in a yet unknown direction) or one-sided (the direction of the hypothesized relation, positive or negative, is fixed in advance). Conventional significance levels for testing hypotheses (acceptable probabilities of wrongly rejecting a true null hypothesis) are .10, .05, and .01. The significance level for deciding whether

7956-426: The notion was Ray Kurzweil 's 2005 book The Singularity Is Near , predicting singularity by 2045. Some scientists, including Stephen Hawking , have expressed concern that artificial superintelligence (ASI) could result in human extinction. The consequences of a technological singularity and its potential benefit or harm to the human race have been intensely debated. Prominent technologists and academics dispute

8058-430: The null hypothesis is rejected and the alternative hypothesis is accepted must be determined in advance, before the observations are collected or inspected. If these criteria are determined later, when the data to be tested are already known, the test is invalid. The above procedure is actually dependent on the number of the participants (units or sample size ) that are included in the study. For instance, to avoid having

8160-400: The outcome of a test or that it remains reasonably under continuing investigation. Only in such cases does the experiment, test or study potentially increase the probability of showing the truth of a hypothesis. If the researcher already knows the outcome, it counts as a "consequence" — and the researcher should have already considered this while formulating the hypothesis. If one cannot assess

8262-468: The path to ASI might lie in scaling up and improving these architectures. This view suggests that continued improvements in transformer models or similar architectures could lead directly to ASI. Some experts even argue that current large language models like GPT-4 may already exhibit early signs of AGI or ASI capabilities. This perspective suggests that the transition from current AI to ASI might be more continuous and rapid than previously thought, blurring

8364-449: The per capita capacity of the world's general-purpose computers has doubled every 18 months; the global telecommunication capacity per capita doubled every 34 months; and the world's storage capacity per capita doubled every 40 months. On the other hand, it has been argued that the global acceleration pattern having the 21st century singularity as its parameter should be characterized as hyperbolic rather than exponential. Kurzweil reserves

8466-402: The phenomenon under examination has some characteristic and causal explanations, which have the general form of universal statements , stating that every instance of the phenomenon has a particular characteristic. In entrepreneurial setting, a hypothesis is used to formulate provisional ideas about the attributes of products or business models. The formulated hypothesis is then evaluated, where

8568-414: The plane of observation. By virtue of those interpretative connections, the network can function as a scientific theory." Hypotheses with concepts anchored in the plane of observation are ready to be tested. In "actual scientific practice the process of framing a theoretical structure and of interpreting it are not always sharply separated, since the intended interpretation usually guides the construction of

8670-512: The plausibility of a technological singularity and the associated artificial intelligence explosion, including Paul Allen , Jeff Hawkins , John Holland , Jaron Lanier , Steven Pinker , Theodore Modis , and Gordon Moore . One claim made was that the artificial intelligence growth is likely to run into decreasing returns instead of accelerating ones, as was observed in previously developed human technologies. Although technological progress has been accelerating in most areas, it has been limited by

8772-477: The potential to not just make themselves faster, but also more efficient, by modifying their source code . These improvements would make further improvements possible, which would make further improvements possible, and so on. The mechanism for a recursively self-improving set of algorithms differs from an increase in raw computation speed in two ways. First, it does not require external influence: machines designing faster hardware would still require humans to create

8874-550: The power to do so. For example, we could mistakenly elevate a subgoal to the status of a supergoal. We tell it to solve a mathematical problem, and it complies by turning all the matter in the solar system into a giant calculating device, in the process killing the person who asked the question. Stuart Russell offers another illustrative scenario: A system given the objective of maximizing human happiness might find it easier to rewire human neurology so that humans are always happy regardless of their circumstances, rather than to improve

8976-410: The predictions by observation or by experience , the hypothesis needs to be tested by others providing observations. For example, a new technology or theory might make the necessary experiments feasible. A trial solution to a problem is commonly referred to as a hypothesis—or, often, as an " educated guess " —because it provides a suggested outcome based on the evidence. However, some scientists reject

9078-430: The question of the feasibility of ASI remains a topic of intense debate and study in the scientific community. Carl Sagan suggested that the advent of Caesarean sections and in vitro fertilization may permit humans to evolve larger heads, resulting in improvements via natural selection in the heritable component of human intelligence . By contrast, Gerald Crabtree has argued that decreased selection pressure

9180-445: The same place; we'd just get there a bit faster. There would be no singularity." It is difficult to directly compare silicon -based hardware with neurons . But Berglas (2008) notes that computer speech recognition is approaching human capabilities, and that this capability seems to require 0.01% of the volume of the brain. This analogy suggests that modern computer hardware is within a few orders of magnitude of being as powerful as

9282-570: The sample size be too small to reject a null hypothesis, it is recommended that one specify a sufficient sample size from the beginning. It is advisable to define a small, medium and large effect size for each of a number of important statistical tests which are used to test the hypotheses. Mount Hypothesis in Antarctica is named in appreciation of the role of hypothesis in scientific research. Several hypotheses have been put forth, in different subject areas: hypothesis [...]— Working hypothesis ,

9384-595: The scalability of the first two approaches and argues that designing a superintelligent cyborg interface is an AI-complete problem. Most surveyed AI researchers expect machines to eventually be able to rival humans in intelligence, though there is little consensus on when this will likely happen. At the 2006 AI@50 conference, 18% of attendees reported expecting machines to be able "to simulate learning and every other aspect of human intelligence" by 2056; 41% of attendees expected this to happen sometime after 2056; and 41% expected machines to never reach that milestone. In

9486-410: The selection process rapidly. A well-organized society of high-intelligence humans of this sort could potentially achieve collective superintelligence. Alternatively, collective intelligence might be constructional by better organizing humans at present levels of individual intelligence. Several writers have suggested that human civilization, or some aspect of it (e.g., the Internet, or the economy),

9588-437: The singularity cannot happen. He claims the "technological singularity" and especially Kurzweil lack scientific rigor; Kurzweil is alleged to mistake the logistic function (S-function) for an exponential function, and to see a "knee" in an exponential function where there can in fact be no such thing. In a 2021 article, Modis pointed out that no milestones – breaks in historical perspective comparable in importance to

9690-504: The startup Safe Superintelligence , which focuses solely on creating a superintelligence that is safe by design, while avoiding "distraction by management overhead or product cycles". The design of superintelligent AI systems raises critical questions about what values and goals these systems should have. Several proposals have been put forward: Bostrom elaborates on these concepts: instead of implementing humanity's coherent extrapolated volition, one could try to build an AI to do what

9792-409: The sum total of human brainpower, writing that advances in computing before that date "will not represent the Singularity" because they do "not yet correspond to a profound expansion of our intelligence." Some singularity proponents argue its inevitability through extrapolation of past trends, especially those pertaining to shortening gaps between improvements to technology. In one of the first uses of

9894-451: The term "educated guess" as incorrect. Experimenters may test and reject several hypotheses before solving the problem. According to Schick and Vaughn, researchers weighing up alternative hypotheses may take into consideration: A working hypothesis is a hypothesis that is provisionally accepted as a basis for further research in the hope that a tenable theory will be produced, even if the hypothesis ultimately fails. Like all hypotheses,

9996-451: The term "singularity" for a rapid increase in artificial intelligence (as opposed to other technologies), writing for example that "The Singularity will allow us to transcend these limitations of our biological bodies and brains ... There will be no distinction, post-Singularity, between human and machine". He also defines his predicted date of the singularity (2045) in terms of when he expects computer-based intelligences to significantly exceed

10098-488: The term "singularity" in the context of technological progress, Stanislaw Ulam tells of a conversation with John von Neumann about accelerating change: One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue. Kurzweil claims that technological progress follows

10200-399: The theoretician". It is, however, "possible and indeed desirable, for the purposes of logical clarification, to separate the two steps conceptually". When a possible correlation or similar relation between phenomena is investigated, such as whether a proposed remedy is effective in treating a disease, the hypothesis that a relation exists cannot be examined the same way one might examine

10302-496: Was a child that have never arrived. Sheer processing power is not a pixie dust that magically solves all your problems." Martin Ford postulates a "technology paradox" in that before the singularity could occur most routine jobs in the economy would be automated, since this would require a level of technology inferior to that of the singularity. This would cause massive unemployment and plummeting consumer demand, which in turn would destroy

10404-435: Was first proposed by I. J. Good in 1965: Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an 'intelligence explosion,' and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus

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