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126-447: In the future, overpopulation and technological advances have created a world where humanity suffocates psychologically beneath its own mass while abiding in relative physical comfort. This is a world ripe for psychotherapeutic innovations, such as the "neuroparticipant therapy" in which the protagonist , Charles Render, is considered foremost in the field. Patients connect to a virtual reality -style simulation controlled directly by

252-447: A cornucopian , has written that contrary to neo-Malthusian theory, Earth's "carrying capacity" is essentially limitless. Simon argues not that there is an infinite physical amount of, say, copper, but for human purposes that amount should be treated as infinite because it is not bounded or limited in any economic sense, because: 1) known reserves are of uncertain quantity 2) New reserves may become available, either through discovery or via

378-543: A steady-state economy . Other prominent Malthusians include the Paddock brothers, authors of Famine 1975! America's Decision: Who Will Survive? The neo-Malthusian revival has drawn criticism from writers who claim the Malthusian warnings were overstated or premature because the green revolution has brought substantial increases in food production and will be able to keep up with continued population growth. Julian Simon ,

504-523: A " conservationist " movement in the United States concerned itself with resource depletion and natural protection in the first half of the twentieth century, Desrochers and Hoffbauer write, "It is probably fair to say ... that it was not until the publication of Osborn's and Vogt's books [1948] that a Malthusian revival took hold of a significant segment of the American population". The modern formulation of

630-704: A 2017 paper that since the Second World War, countries with higher population growth rates experienced the most social conflict. Some advocates have suggested societal problems such as hunger and mass unemployment are linked to overpopulation. According to anthropologist Jason Hickel , the global capitalist system creates pressures for population growth : "more people means more labour, cheaper labour, and more consumers." He and his colleagues have also demonstrated that capitalist elites throughout recent history have "used pro-natalist state policies to prevent women from practicing family planning" in order to grow

756-527: A catastrophe would force the population to "correct" back to a lower, more easily sustainable level (quite rapidly, due to the potential severity and unpredictable results of the mitigating factors involved, as compared to the relatively slow time scales and well-understood processes governing unchecked growth or growth affected by preventive checks). Malthusianism has been linked to a variety of political and social movements, but almost always refers to advocates of population control . These concepts derive from

882-687: A combination of factors (including technological and social change) would allow global resources to meet this increased demand, avoiding global overpopulation. Additionally, some critics dismiss the idea of human overpopulation as a science myth connected to attempts to blame environmental issues on overpopulation, oversimplify complex social or economic systems, or place blame on developing countries and poor populations— reinscribing colonial or racist assumptions and leading to discriminatory policy. These critics often suggest overconsumption should be treated as an issue separate from population growth . World population has been rising continuously since

1008-562: A consequence of overpopulation, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization , global food production exceeds increasing demand from global population growth. Food insecurity in some regions is attributable to the globally unequal distribution of food supplies. The notion that space is limited has been decried by skeptics, who point out that the Earth's population of roughly 6.8 billion people could comfortably be housed an area comparable in size to

1134-439: A country does not depend, absolutely, upon its poverty, or its riches, upon its youth, or its age, upon its being thinly, or fully inhabited, but upon the rapidity with which it is increasing, upon the degree in which the yearly increase of food approaches to the yearly increase of an unrestricted population." However, the propensity for population increase also leads to a natural cycle of abundance and shortages: We will suppose

1260-504: A crisis. In France, terms such as " politique malthusienne " ("Malthusian politics") refer to population control strategies. The concept of restriction of the population associated with Malthus morphed, in later political-economic theory, into the notion of restriction of production. In the French sense, a "Malthusian economy" is one in which protectionism and the formation of cartels is not only tolerated but encouraged. Vladimir Lenin ,

1386-504: A diminished quality of human life. Ecologist David Pimentel was one such proponent, saying "with the imbalance growing between population numbers and vital life sustaining resources, humans must actively conserve cropland, freshwater, energy, and biological resources. There is a need to develop renewable energy resources. Humans everywhere must understand that rapid population growth damages the Earth's resources and diminishes human well-being." Although food shortages have been warned as

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1512-521: A film outline based on The Dream Master , which was purchased by 20th Century Fox and later developed into the film Dreamscape . Because he wrote the outline but neither the treatment nor script, his name did not appear in the credits. Assertions that he had his name removed from the credits are unfounded. The plot of The Dream Master inspired Gary Numan 's song "I Am Render" (from Numan's 1983 album Warriors ). Human overpopulation Human overpopulation (or human population overshoot )

1638-452: A framework that ensures social integrity" to reduce the impact of "population growth on GHG emissions and biodiversity loss." In 2020, a quote from David Attenborough about how humans have "overrun the planet" was shared widely online and became his most popular comment on the internet. The World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and Global Footprint Network have argued that the annual biocapacity of Earth has exceeded, as measured using

1764-501: A global issue that some have linked to population growth. Colin Butler wrote in The Lancet in 1994 that overpopulation also has economic consequences for certain countries due to resource use. It was speculated by Aldous Huxley in 1958 that democracy is threatened by overpopulation, and could give rise to totalitarian style governments. Physics professor Albert Allen Bartlett at

1890-499: A group of prominent economists and ecologists, including Kenneth Arrow and Paul Ehrlich suggests that the central concerns regarding sustainability have shifted from population growth to the consumption/savings ratio, due to shifts in population growth rates since the 1970s. Empirical estimates show that public policy (taxes or the establishment of more complete property rights) can promote more efficient consumption and investment that are sustainable in an ecological sense; that is, given

2016-512: A long history: Tertullian , a resident of the city of Carthage in the second century CE , criticized population at the time: "Our numbers are burdensome to the world, which can hardly support us... In very deed, pestilence, and famine, and wars, and earthquakes have to be regarded as a remedy for nations, as the means of pruning the luxuriance of the human race." Despite those concerns, scholars have not found historic societies that have collapsed because of overpopulation or overconsumption. By

2142-413: A neuroparticipant therapist herself, but is hampered by congenital blindness. She would be unable to convincingly construct visual dreams for them; indeed, in a case of eye-envy, her own neurotic desire to see through the eyes of her patients might prevent her from treating them effectively. As she explains to Render, if a practicing neuroparticipant therapist is willing to work with her, he can expose her to

2268-601: A number of periods of growth since the dawn of civilization in the Holocene period, around 10,000 BCE. The beginning of civilization roughly coincides with the receding of glacial ice following the end of the Last Glacial Period . Farming allowed for the growth of populations in many parts of the world, including Europe, the Americas and China through the 1600s, occasionally disrupted by plagues or other crises. For example,

2394-563: A population of six billion their biomass exceeded that of any other large land dwelling animal species that had ever existed by over 100 times. Inger Andersen , the executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme , stated in December 2022 as the human population reached a milestone of 8 billion and as delegates were meeting for the 2022 United Nations Biodiversity Conference , that "we need to understand that

2520-435: A prevalent "negative emissions" strategy for reaching Paris Climate Accord goals is another such pressure. Research indicates that technological superiority and higher land productivity had significant positive effects on population density but insignificant effects on the standard of living during the time period 1–1500 AD. In addition, scholars have reported on the lack of a significant trend of wages in various places over

2646-597: A rebuttal to thinkers like William Godwin and the Marquis de Condorcet , and Malthus's own father who believed in the perfectibility of humanity. Malthus believed humanity's ability to reproduce too rapidly doomed efforts at perfection and caused various other problems. His criticism of the working class 's tendency to reproduce rapidly, and his belief that this, rather than the exploitation of their labour by capitalists , led to their poverty, brought widespread criticism of his theory. Malthusians perceived ideas of charity to

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2772-512: A resolution" to diminish the supply of labourers "and act on it". Even if they could, the ongoing influx of Irish immigrants would render their efforts redundant. Associating Malthusianism with laissez-faire , he instead advocated proactive legislation. His later essay "Indian Meal" (1849) argued that maize production would remedy the failure of the potato crop as well as any prospective food shortages. Karl Marx (who had occasion to cite Ensor). referred to Malthusianism as "nothing more than

2898-401: A school-boyish, superficial plagiary of Defoe , Sir James Steuart , Townsend , Franklin , Wallace". Friedrich Engels argued that Malthus failed to recognise a crucial difference between humans and other species. In capitalist societies, as Engels put it, scientific and technological "progress is as unlimited and at least as rapid as that of population". Marx argued, even more broadly, that

3024-647: A steadily growing population remained a necessary factor in the continuing "progress of society", generally. Modern neo-Malthusians are generally more concerned than Malthus with environmental degradation and catastrophic famine than with poverty. Malthusianism has attracted criticism from diverse schools of thought, including Georgists , Marxists and socialists , libertarians and free market advocates, feminists , Catholics , and human rights advocates, characterising it as excessively pessimistic, insufficiently researched, misanthropic or inhuman. Many critics believe Malthusianism has been discredited since

3150-430: A valid concern, argue that increased levels of resource consumption and pollution exceed the environment's carrying capacity , leading to population overshoot . The population overshoot hypothesis is often discussed in relation to other population concerns such as population momentum , biodiversity loss , hunger and malnutrition , resource depletion , and the overall human impact on the environment . Critics of

3276-442: A vehicle, forgoing air travel, and adopting a plant-based diet . However, even in countries that have both large population growth and major ecological problems, it is not necessarily true that curbing the population growth will make a major contribution towards resolving all environmental problems that can be solved simply with an environmentalist policy approach. Continued population growth and overconsumption, particularly by

3402-654: Is "a primary driver behind many ecological and even societal threats." Ehlrich and other scientists at a conference in the Vatican on contemporary species extinction linked the issue to population growth in 2017, and advocated for human population control , which attracted controversy from the Catholic church . In 2019, a warning on climate change signed by 11,000 scientists from 153 nations said that human population growth adds 80 million humans annually, and "the world population must be stabilized—and, ideally, gradually reduced—within

3528-566: Is a recurrent theme in many social science venues. John Maynard Keynes , in Economic Consequences of the Peace , opens his polemic with a Malthusian portrayal of the political economy of Europe as unstable due to Malthusian population pressure on food supplies. Many models of resource depletion and scarcity are Malthusian in character: the rate of energy consumption will outstrip the ability to find and produce new energy sources, and so lead to

3654-782: Is its effect on the environment. Some scientists suggest that the overall human impact on the environment during the Great Acceleration , particularly due to human population size and growth, economic growth , overconsumption, pollution , and proliferation of technology, has pushed the planet into a new geological epoch known as the Anthropocene . Biomass of mammals on Earth Some studies and commentary link population growth with climate change . Critics have stated that population growth alone may have less influence on climate change than other factors, such as greenhouse gas emissions per capita . The global consumption of meat

3780-495: Is now spreading from the developed countries to less developed countries , the United Nations Population Fund estimates that human population may peak in the late 21st century rather than continue to grow until it has exhausted available resources. Recent empirical research corroborates this assumption for most of the less developed countries , with the exception of most of Sub-Saharan Africa . A 2004 study by

3906-590: Is predicted that the population of sub-Saharan Africa will double by 2050. The Pew Research Center predicts that 50% of births in the year 2100 will be in Africa. As an example of uneven prospects, the UN projects that Nigeria will gain about 340 million people, about the present population of the US, to become the 3rd most populous country, and China will lose almost half of its population. Concerns about population size or density have

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4032-499: Is projected to rise by as much as 76% by 2050 as the global population increases, with this projected to have further environmental impacts such as biodiversity loss and increased greenhouse gas emissions. A July 2017 study published in Environmental Research Letters argued that the most significant way individuals could mitigate their own carbon footprint is to have fewer children, followed by living without

4158-552: Is still too high, and will eventually lead to a serious crisis. The 2007–2008 world food price crisis inspired further Malthusian arguments regarding the prospects for global food supply. From approximately 2004 to 2011, concerns about "peak oil" and other forms of resource depletion became widespread in the United States, and motivated a large if short-lived subculture of neo-Malthusian "peakists". A United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization study conducted in 2009 said that food production would have to increase by 70% over

4284-523: Is the idea that human populations may become too large to be sustained by their environment or resources in the long term. The topic is usually discussed in the context of world population , though it may concern individual nations, regions, and cities. Since 1804, the global living human population has increased from 1 billion to 8 billion due to medical advancements and improved agricultural productivity . Annual world population growth peaked at 2.1% in 1968 and has since dropped to 1.1%. According to

4410-406: Is what caused the mass killings of Tutsi and even some Hutu Rwandans. The genocide, in this instance, provides a potential example of a Malthusian trap. Some researchers contend that a British breakout occurred due to technological improvements and structural change away from agricultural production, while coal, capital, and trade played a minor role. Economic historian Gregory Clark , building on

4536-851: The American Association for the Advancement of Science were concerned about population growth. In 2017, more than one-third of 50 Nobel prize-winning scientists surveyed by the Times Higher Education at the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meetings said that human overpopulation and environmental degradation are the two greatest threats facing mankind. In November that same year, the World Scientists' Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice , signed by 15,364 scientists from 184 countries, indicated that rapid human population growth

4662-473: The COVID-19 pandemic that epidemics and pandemics were made more likely by overpopulation, globalization , urbanization and encroachment into natural habitats. They both play a significant role impacting human populations, including widespread illness , death , and social disruption . While they can leave a temporary loss of population, it is followed by significant loss and suffering. These events are not

4788-495: The Malthusian League . Neo-Malthusians differ from Malthus's theories mainly in their support for the use of birth control . Malthus, a devout Christian, believed that "self-control" (i.e., abstinence) was preferable to artificial birth control. He also worried that the effect of contraceptive use would be too powerful in curbing growth, conflicting with the common 18th century perspective (to which Malthus himself adhered) that

4914-547: The Rwandan Genocide was brought about in part due to excessive population pressures. He argues that Rwanda "illustrates a case where Malthus's worst-case scenario does seem to have been right." Due to population pressures in Rwanda, Diamond explains that the population density combined with lagging technological advancements caused its food production to not be able to keep up with its population. Diamond claims that this environment

5040-568: The United Nations , eight billion as of November 2022. Some researchers have analyzed this growth in population like other animal populations, human populations predictably grow and shrink according to their available food supply as per the Lotka–Volterra equations , including agronomist and insect ecologist David Pimentel , behavioral scientist Russell Hopfenberg, and anthropologist Virginia Abernethy . World population has gone through

5166-492: The United Nations Population Division issued in 2022 (see chart) projects that global population will peak around the year 2086 at about 10.4 billion, and then start a slow decline (the median line on the chart).  As with earlier projections, this version assumes that the global average fertility rate will continue to fall, but even further from 2.5 births per woman during the 2015–2020 period to 1.8 by

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5292-556: The University of Colorado Boulder warned in 2000 that overpopulation and the development of technology are the two major causes of the diminution of democracy. However, over the last 200 years of population growth, the actual level of personal freedom has increased rather than declined. John Harte has argued population growth is a factor in numerous social issues, including unemployment , overcrowding , bad governance and decaying infrastructure. Daron Acemoglu and others suggested in

5418-516: The appropriateness of definitions being used (and often devolve into social scientists and biologists simply talking past each other ). Annual world population growth peaked at 2.1% in 1968, has since dropped to 1.1%, and could drop even further to 0.1% by 2100. Based on this, the United Nations projects the world population, which is 7.8 billion as of 2020 , to level out around 2100 at 10.9 billion with other models proposing similar stabilization before or after 2100. Some experts believe that

5544-451: The ecological footprint . In 2006, WWF's Living Planet Report stated that in order for all humans to live with the current consumption patterns of Europeans, we would be spending three times more than what the planet can renew. According to these calculations, humanity as a whole was using by 2006 40% more than what Earth can regenerate. Another study by the WWF in 2014 found that it would take

5670-561: The engineering of substitute goods and technology that better conserves and more efficiently uses natural resources, produces greater agricultural output with less land and less water, and addresses human impacts on the environment due to there being greater numbers of scientists, engineers, and inventors and subsequent generations of scientists overturning scientific paradigms maintained by previous generations of scientists . Instead, social scientists argue that disputes between themselves and biologists about human overpopulation are over

5796-458: The global south where most population growth happens. Modern proponents of the concept have suggested that overpopulation, population growth and overconsumption are interdependent and collectively are the primary drivers of human-caused environmental problems such as climate change and biodiversity loss . Many scientists have expressed concern about population growth, and argue that creating sustainable societies will require decreasing

5922-469: The 20th century did not materialize. In The Population Bomb , Ehrlich stated, "In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now," with later editions changing to "in the 1980s". Despite admitting some of his earlier predictions did not come to pass, Ehrlich continues to advocate that overpopulation is a major issue. As the profile of environmental issues facing humanity increased during

6048-536: The Black Death is thought to have reduced the world's population, then at an estimated 450 million in 1350, to between 350 and 375 million by 1400. After the start of the Industrial Revolution , during the 18th century, the rate of population growth began to increase. By the end of the century, the world's population was estimated at just under 1 billion. At the turn of the 20th century, the world's population

6174-452: The Commons" , argued that "a finite world can support only a finite population" and that "freedom to breed will bring ruin to all." The Club of Rome published a book entitled The Limits to Growth in 1972. The report and the organisation soon became central to the neo-Malthusian revival. Leading ecological economist Herman Daly has acknowledged the influence of Malthus on his concept of

6300-524: The Malthusian theory was developed by Quamrul Ashraf and Oded Galor . Their theoretical structure suggests that as long as higher income has a positive effect on reproductive success , and land is a limiting factor in resource production, then technological progress has only a temporary effect on income per capita (per person). While in the short run technological progress increases income per capita, resource abundance created by technological progress would enable population growth, and would eventually bring

6426-502: The Population of Nations containing a Refutation of Mr. Malthus's Essay on Population (1818), George Ensor had developed a similar broadside against Malthusian political economy, arguing that poverty was sustained not by reckless propensity to propagate, but rather by the state's indulgence of the heedless concentration of private wealth. Following the same line of argument, William Hazlitt (1819) wrote, "Mr Malthus wishes to confound

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6552-596: The Principles of Population , taking a more optimistic tone, although there is some scholarly debate on the extent of his revisions. According to Dan Ritschel of the Center for History Education at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, The great Malthusian dread was that "indiscriminate charity" would lead to exponential growth in the population in poverty, increased charges to the public purse to support this growing army of

6678-475: The UK and France after 1750. Fogel's findings are consistent with estimates of available food supply. Evidence supporting Malthusianism today can be seen in the poorer countries of the world with booming populations. In East Africa specifically, experts say that this area of the world has not yet escaped the Malthusian effects of population growth. Jared Diamond in his book Collapse (2005), for example, argues that

6804-449: The analyst's mind; the analyst then works with the patient to construct dreams , nightmares which afford insight into the underlying neuroses of the patient, and in some cases the possibility of direct intervention. As an example, one man mentally immersed in a fantasy world sees it destroyed at Render's hands, and is thus cured of his obsession with it. Render takes on a patient with an unusual problem. Eileen Shallot aspires to become

6930-528: The belief note that human population growth is decreasing and the population will likely peak, and possibly even begin to decrease, before the end of the century. They argue the concerns surrounding population growth are overstated, noting that quickly declining birth rates and technological innovation make it possible to sustain projected population sizes. Other critics claim that overpopulation concerns ignore more pressing issues, like poverty or overconsumption , are motivated by racism, or place an undue burden on

7056-401: The coming decades, and advocated for policies to curb it. The Club of Rome published the influential report The Limits to Growth in 1972, which used computer modeling to similarly argue that continued population growth trends would lead to global system collapse. The idea of overpopulation was also a topic of some works of English-language science fiction and dystopian fiction during

7182-559: The current (relatively low) population growth rate, the Malthusian catastrophe can be avoided by either a shift in consumer preferences or public policy that induces a similar shift. According to Malthus, population doubled every 25 years. Population sat at less than 17 million people in the U.S. in the 1850s and a century later, according to the United States Census Bureau, population had risen to 150 million. Malthus overpopulation would lead to war, famine, and diseases and in

7308-777: The current global population. Advocates have suggested implementation of population planning strategies to reach a proposed sustainable population . Overpopulation hypotheses are controversial, with many demographers and environmentalists disputing the core premise that the world cannot sustain the current trajectory of human population. Additionally, many economists and historians have noted that sustained shortages and famines have historically been caused by war, price controls , political instability, and repressive political regimes (often employing central planning ) rather than overpopulation, and that population growth historically has led to greater technological development and advancement of scientific knowledge that has enabled

7434-584: The daily wage hardly varied. In Britain between 1200 and 1800, only relatively minor fluctuations from the mean (less than a factor of two) in real wages occurred. Following depopulation by the Black Death and other epidemics, real income in Britain peaked around 1450–1500 and began declining until the British Agricultural Revolution . Historian Walter Scheidel posits that waves of plague following

7560-639: The demographic growth and environmental damage created by civilisation. He also opposed coercive measures postulated by neo-malthusian movements of his time arguing that their cost will fall disproportionately on the low-income population who are struggling already. Ester Boserup suggested that expanding population leads to agricultural intensification and development of more productive and less labor-intensive methods of farming. Thus, human population levels determines agricultural methods, rather than agricultural methods determining population. Environmentalist founder of Ecomodernism , Stewart Brand , summarised how

7686-449: The dependent, and, eventually, the catastrophe of national bankruptcy . Though Malthusianism has since come to be identified with the issue of general over-population, the original Malthusian concern was more specifically with the fear of over-population by the dependent poor. With significant post-war activity One proponent of Malthusianism was the novelist Harriet Martineau whose circle of acquaintances included Charles Darwin , and

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7812-782: The descendants of the rich becoming more populous in British society and spreading middle-class values such as hard work and literacy. After World War II , mechanized agriculture produced a dramatic increase in productivity of agriculture and the Green Revolution greatly increased crop yields, expanding the world's food supply while lowering food prices. In response, the growth rate of the world's population accelerated rapidly, resulting in predictions by Paul R. Ehrlich , Simon Hopkins, and many others of an imminent Malthusian catastrophe. However, populations of most developed countries grew slowly enough to be outpaced by gains in productivity. By

7938-403: The development of new extraction techniques 3) recycling 4) more efficient utilization of existing reserves (e.g., "It takes much less copper now to pass a given message than a hundred years ago." [The Ultimate Resource 2, 1996, footnote, p. 62]) 5) development of economic equivalents, e.g., optic fibre in the case of copper for telecommunications. Responding to Simon, Al Bartlett reiterates

8064-488: The early 19th century, intellectuals such as Thomas Malthus predicted that humankind would outgrow its available resources because a finite amount of land would be incapable of supporting a population with limitless potential for increase. During the 19th century, Malthus' work, particularly An Essay on the Principle of Population , was often interpreted in a way that blamed the poor alone for their condition and helping them

8190-402: The early 21st century, many technologically developed countries had passed through the demographic transition , a complex social development encompassing a drop in total fertility rates in response to various fertility factors , including lower infant mortality , increased urbanization , and a wider availability of effective birth control . On the assumption that the demographic transition

8316-478: The end of 2022. by UN in 2017 Population projections are attempts to show how the human population might change in the future. These projections help to forecast the population's impact on this planet and humanity's future well-being. Models of population growth take trends in human development , and apply projections into the future to understand how they will affect fertility and mortality , and thus population growth . The most recent report from

8442-505: The end of the Black Death , around the year 1350. The fastest doubling of the world population happened between 1950 and 1986: a doubling from 2.5 to 5 billion people in 37 years, mainly due to medical advancements and increases in agricultural productivity . Due to its impact on the human ability to grow food, the Haber process enabled the global population to increase from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 7.7 billion by November 2018 and, according to

8568-413: The end of the 20th and the early 21st centuries, some have looked to population growth as a root cause. In the 2000s, E. O. Wilson and Ron Nielsen discussed overpopulation as a threat to the quality of human life. In 2011, Pentti Linkola argued that human overpopulation represents a threat to Earth's biosphere . A 2015 survey from Pew Research Center reports that 82% of scientists associated with

8694-513: The environment and accompanying increase in resource consumption threatens the world's ecosystems and the survival of human civilization. The InterAcademy Panel Statement on Population Growth , which was ratified by 58 member national academies in 1994, states that "unprecedented" population growth aggravates many environmental problems, including rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide , global warming , and pollution. Indeed, some analysts claim that overpopulation's most serious impact

8820-595: The equivalent of 1.5 Earths of bio-capacity to meet humanity's current levels of consumption. However, Roger Martin of Population Matters states the view: "the poor want to get rich, and I want them to get rich," with a later addition, "of course we have to change consumption habits,... but we've also got to stabilize our numbers". Critics have questioned the simplifications and statistical methods used in calculating ecological footprints. Therefore, Global Footprint Network and its partner organizations have engaged with national governments and international agencies to test

8946-417: The field of eugenics . Henry Fairfield Osborn Jr. advocated "humane birth selection through humane birth control" in order to avoid a Malthusian catastrophe by eliminating the "unfit". Malthusianism became a less common intellectual tradition as the 19th century advanced, mostly as a result of technological increases, the opening of new territory to agriculture, and increasing international trade. Although

9072-412: The food of the world. Malthus faced opposition from economists both during his life and since. A vocal critic several decades later was Friedrich Engels . Malthus was not the first to outline the problems he perceived. The original essay was part of an ongoing intellectual discussion at the end of the 18th century regarding the origins of poverty . Principle of Population was specifically written as

9198-430: The full range of visual stimuli in a controlled environment, free of her own attachments to the issue, and enable her to pursue her career. Despite his better sense and the advice of colleagues, Render agrees to go along with the treatment. As they progress, Eileen's hunger for visual stimulation continues to grow, and she begins to assert her will against Render's, subsuming him into her own dreams. In 1981 Zelazny wrote

9324-422: The future, society won't be able to feed every person and eventually die. Malthus theory was incorrect, however, because by the early 1900s and mid 1900s, the rise of conventional foods brought a decline to food production and efficiency increased exponentially. More supply was being produced with less work, less resources, and less time. Processed foods had much to do with it, many wives wanting to spend less time in

9450-474: The global human population," sustainability can be achieved more rapidly with a short term focus on technological and social innovations, along with reducing consumption rates, while treating population planning as a long-term goal. However, most scientists believe that achieving genuine sustainability is a long-term project, and that addressing population and consumption levels are both essential to achieving it. In 1992, more than 1700 scientists from around

9576-411: The global population of the past century exemplifies Malthus's predicted population patterns; it also appears to describe socio-demographic dynamics of complex pre-industrial societies . These findings are the basis for neo-Malthusian modern mathematical models of long-term historical dynamics . There was a general "neo-Malthusian" revival in the mid-to-late 1940s, continuing through to the 2010s after

9702-543: The growth of both a human population in toto and the " relative surplus population " within it, occurred in direct proportion to accumulation . Henry George in Progress and Poverty (1879) criticised Malthus's view that population growth was a cause of poverty, arguing that poverty was caused by the concentration of ownership of land and natural resources. George noted that humans are distinct from other species, because unlike most species humans can use their minds to leverage

9828-430: The growth of the human population caused encroachment in wild habitats which have led to their destruction, "posing a potential threat to biodiversity components". Some scientists and environmentalists, including Jared Diamond , E. O. Wilson , Jane Goodall and David Attenborough , contend that population growth is devastating to biodiversity . Wilson for example, has expressed concern when Homo sapiens reached

9954-540: The ideas of Malthus were a significant influence on the inception of Darwin's theory of evolution . Darwin was impressed by the idea that population growth would eventually lead to more organisms than could possibly survive in any given environment, leading him to theorize that organisms with a relative advantage in the struggle for survival and reproduction would be able to pass their characteristics on to further generations. Proponents of Malthusianism were in turn influenced by Darwin's ideas , both schools coming to influence

10080-407: The initial outbreak of the Black Death throughout Europe had a leveling effect that changed the ratio of land to labor, reducing the value of the former while boosting that of the latter, which lowered economic inequality by making employers and landowners less well off while improving the economic prospects and living standards of workers. He says that "the observed improvement in living standards of

10206-484: The insights of Galor and Moav, has argued, in his book A Farewell to Alms , that a British breakout may have been caused by differences in reproduction rates among the rich and the poor (the rich were more likely to marry, tended to have more children, and, in a society where disease was rampant and childhood mortality at times approached 50%, upper-class children were more likely to survive to adulthood than poor children.) This in turn led to sustained "downward mobility":

10332-476: The kitchen and instead work. This was the beginning of technological advancements adhering to food demand even in the middle of a war. Economists disregarded Malthus population theory because Malthus didn't factor in important roles society would have on economic growth. These factors concerned the society's need to improve their quality of life and their want for economic prosperity. Cultural shifts also had much to do with food production increase, and this put end to

10458-738: The laboring population was rooted in the suffering and premature death of tens of millions over the course of several generations." This leveling effect was reversed by a "demographic recovery that resulted in renewed population pressure ." Robert Fogel published a study of lifespans and nutrition from about a century before Malthus to the 19th century that examined European birth and death records, military and other records of height and weight that found significant stunted height and low body weight indicative of chronic hunger and malnutrition. He also found short lifespans that he attributed to chronic malnourishment which left people susceptible to disease. Lifespans, height and weight began to steadily increase in

10584-515: The latter part of the 1960s. The United Nations held the first of three World Population Conferences in 1974. Human population and family planning policies were adopted by some nations in the late 20th century in an effort to curb population growth, including in China and India . Albert Allen Bartlett gave more than 1,742 lectures on the threat of exponential population growth starting in 1969. However, many predictions of overpopulation during

10710-517: The leader of the Bolshevik Party and the main architect of the Soviet Union was a critic of Neo-Malthusian theory (but not of birth control and abortion in general). "Neo-Malthusianism" is a concern that overpopulation as well as overconsumption may increase resource depletion and/or environmental degradation will lead to ecological collapse or other hazards . The rapid increase in

10836-471: The means of subsistence in any country just equal to the easy support of its inhabitants. The constant effort towards population...increases the number of people before the means of subsistence are increased. The food therefore which before supported seven millions, must now be divided among seven millions and a half or eight millions. The poor consequently must live much worse, and many of them be reduced to severe distress. The number of labourers also being above

10962-606: The more people there are, the more we put the Earth under heavy pressure. As far as biodiversity is concerned, we are at war with [the rest of] nature." Human overpopulation and continued population growth are also considered by some, including animal rights attorney Doris Lin and philosopher Steven Best , to be an animal rights issue, as more human activity means the destruction of animal habitats and more direct killing of animals. Some commentary has attributed depletion of non-renewable resources , such as land , food and water , to overpopulation and suggested it could lead to

11088-409: The most common estimate was 8 billion. Advocates of reduced population often put forward much lower numbers. Paul R. Ehrlich stated in 2018 that the optimum population is between 1.5 and 2 billion. In 2022 Ehrlich and other contributors to the "Scientists' warning on population", including Eileen Crist, William J. Ripple , William E. Rees and Christopher Wolf, stated that environmental analysts put

11214-441: The most recent United Nations' projections , the global human population is expected to reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and would peak at around 10.4 billion people in the 2080s, before decreasing, noting that fertility rates are falling worldwide. Other models agree that the population will stabilize before or after 2100. Conversely, other researchers have found that national birth registries data from 2022 and 2023 that cover half

11340-495: The natural world that can overwhelm any efforts to achieve a sustainable future. If we are to halt the destruction of our environment, we must accept limits to that growth. Malthusianism Malthusianism is a theory that population growth is potentially exponential, according to the Malthusian growth model , while the growth of the food supply or other resources is linear , which eventually reduces living standards to

11466-422: The necessary limits of the produce of the earth with the arbitrary and artificial distribution of that produce by the institutions of society". Thomas Carlyle dismissed Malthusianism as pessimistic sophistry . In Chartism (1839), he denied the possibility that "twenty-four millions" of English "working people[s]", "scattered over a hundred and eighteen thousand square miles of space", could collectively "take

11592-540: The next 40 years, and food production in the developing world would need to double to feed a projected population increase from 7.8 billion to 9.1 billion in 2050. The effects of global warming (floods, droughts, and other extreme weather events) are expected to negatively affect food production, with different impacts in different regions. The FAO also said the use of agricultural resources for biofuels may also put downward pressure on food availability. The more recent emergence of bio-energy with carbon capture (BECCS) as

11718-497: The per capita income back to its original long-run level. The testable prediction of the theory is that during the Malthusian epoch technologically advanced economies were characterized by higher population density, but their level of income per capita was not different from the level in societies that are technologically backward. To manage population growth with respect to food supply, Malthus proposed methods which he described as preventive or positive checks: Malthusian theory

11844-434: The plenty of labourers, and the necessity of an increased industry amongst them, encourage cultivators to employ more labour upon their land; to turn up fresh soil, and to manure and improve more completely what is already in tillage; till ultimately the means of subsistence become in the same proportion to the population as at the period from which we set out. The situation of the labourer being then again tolerably comfortable,

11970-428: The point of triggering a population decline . This event, called a Malthusian catastrophe (also known as a Malthusian trap , population trap , Malthusian check , Malthusian crisis , Point of Crisis , or Malthusian crunch ) has been predicted to occur if population growth outpaces agricultural production , thereby causing famine or war . According to this theory, poverty and inequality will increase as

12096-475: The political and economic thought of the Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus , as laid out in his 1798 writings, An Essay on the Principle of Population . Malthus suggested that while technological advances could increase a society's supply of resources, such as food, and thereby improve the standard of living , the abundance of resources would enable population growth, which would eventually bring

12222-582: The poor, typified by Tory paternalism , were futile, as these would only result in increased numbers of the poor; these theories played into Whig economic ideas exemplified by the Poor Law Amendment Act of 1834 . The Act was described by opponents as "a Malthusian bill designed to force the poor to emigrate, to work for lower wages, to live on a coarser sort of food", which initiated the construction of workhouses despite riots and arson. Malthus revised his theories in later editions of An Essay on

12348-414: The population theory. One of the earliest critics was David Ricardo . Malthus immediately and correctly recognised it to be an attack on his theory of wages. Ricardo and Malthus debated this in a lengthy personal correspondence. In Ireland , where applying his thesis, Malthus proposed that "to give full effect to the natural resources of the country a great part of the population should be swept from

12474-441: The potential of population growth as an exponential (or as expressed by Malthus, "geometrical") curve to outstrip both natural resources and human ingenuity. Bartlett writes and lectures particularly on energy supplies, and describes the "inability to understand the exponential function" as the "greatest shortcoming of the human race". Prominent neo-Malthusians such as Paul Ehrlich maintain that ultimately, population growth on Earth

12600-411: The precursors in the great army of destruction, and often finish the dreadful work themselves. But should they fail in this war of extermination, sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence, and plague advance in terrific array, and sweep off their thousands and tens of thousands. Should success be still incomplete, gigantic inevitable famine stalks in the rear, and with one mighty blow levels the population with

12726-438: The price of assets and scarce commodities goes up due to fierce competition for these dwindling resources. This increased level of poverty eventually causes depopulation by decreasing birth rates . If asset prices keep increasing, social unrest would occur, which would likely cause a major war , revolution , or a famine . Societal collapse is an extreme but possible outcome from this process. The theory posits that such

12852-400: The process of reducing the total numbers. They suggested several possible approaches, including: There is good evidence from many parts of the world that when women and couples have the freedom to choose how many children to have, they tend to have smaller families.   Some scientists, such as Corey Bradshaw and Barry Brook, suggest that, given the "inexorable demographic momentum of

12978-423: The proportion of the work in the market, the price of labour must tend toward a decrease; while the price of provisions would at the same time tend to rise. The labourer therefore must work harder to earn the same as he did before. During this season of distress, the discouragements to marriage, and the difficulty of rearing a family are so great, that population is at a stand. In the mean time the cheapness of labour,

13104-426: The publication of Principle of Population , often citing advances in agricultural techniques and modern reductions in human fertility. Some modern proponents believe that the basic concept of population growth eventually outstripping resources is still fundamentally valid, and that positive checks are still likely to occur in humanity's future if no action is taken to intentionally curb population growth. In spite of

13230-643: The publication of two influential books in 1948 ( Fairfield Osborn 's Our Plundered Planet and William Vogt 's Road to Survival ). During that time the population of the world rose dramatically. Many in environmental movements began to sound the alarm regarding the potential dangers of population growth. Paul R. Ehrlich has been one of the most prominent neo-Malthusians since the publication of The Population Bomb in 1968. In 1968, ecologist Garrett Hardin published an influential essay in Science that drew heavily from Malthusian theory. His essay, "The Tragedy of

13356-564: The reproductive forces of nature to their advantage. He wrote, "Both the hawk and the man eat chickens; but the more hawks, the fewer chickens, while the more men, the more chickens." D. E. C. Eversley observed that Malthus appeared unaware of the extent of industrialisation, and either ignored or discredited the possibility that it could improve living conditions of the poorer classes. Barry Commoner believed in The Closing Circle (1971) that technological progress will eventually reduce

13482-460: The restraints to population are in some degree loosened; and the same retrograde and progressive movements with respect to happiness are repeated. Famine seems to be the last, the most dreadful resource of nature. The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race. The vices of mankind are active and able ministers of depopulation. They are

13608-534: The results—reviews have been produced by France, Germany, the European Commission, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Japan and the United Arab Emirates . Some point out that a more refined method of assessing Ecological Footprint is to designate sustainable versus non-sustainable categories of consumption. Attempts have been made to estimate the world's carrying capacity for humans; the maximum population

13734-449: The size of their workforce. Hickel has however argued that the cause of negative environmental impacts is resource extraction by wealthy countries. He concludes that "we should not ignore the relationship between population growth and ecology, but we must not treat these as operating in a social and political vacuum." A 2021 article in Ethics, Medicine and Public Health argued in light of

13860-464: The soil", there were early refutations. In Observations on the population and resources of Ireland (1821) , Whitley Stokes , invoking the advantages mankind derives from "improved industry, improved conveyance, improvements in morals, government and religion", denied that there was a "law of nature" that procreation must outrun the means of subsistence. Ireland's problem was not her "numbers" but her indifferent government. In An Inquiry Concerning

13986-408: The sole reason for overpopulation, but lack of access to family planning and reproductive contraptions, poverty and resource depletion . Several strategies have been proposed to mitigate overpopulation. Several scientists (including Paul Ehrlich , Gretchen Daily and Tim Flannery ) proposed that humanity should work at stabilizing its absolute numbers, as a starting point towards beginning

14112-432: The state of Texas in the United States (about 269,000 square miles or 696,706.80 square kilometres). Critics and agricultural experts suggest changes to policies relating to land use or agriculture to make them more efficient would be more likely to resolve land issues and pressures on the environment than focusing on reducing population alone. Water scarcity , which threatens agricultural productivity, represents

14238-447: The supply of resources for each person back to its original level. Some economists contend that since the Industrial Revolution in the early 19th century, mankind has broken out of the trap. Others argue that the continuation of extreme poverty indicates that the Malthusian trap continues to operate. Others further argue that due to lack of food availability coupled with excessive pollution, developing countries show more evidence of

14364-452: The sustainable level of human population at between 2 and 4 billion people. Geographer Chris Tucker estimates that 3 billion is a sustainable number. Although proponents of human overpopulation have expressed concern that growing population will lead to an increase in global poverty and infant mortality , both indicators have declined over the last 200 years of population growth. A number of scientists have argued that human impacts on

14490-447: The trap as compared to developed countries. A similar, more modern concept, is that of human overpopulation . Neo-Malthusianism is the advocacy of human population planning to ensure resources and environmental integrities for current and future human populations as well as for other species. In Britain the term "Malthusian" can also refer more specifically to arguments made in favour of family planning , hence organizations such as

14616-469: The variety of criticisms against it, the Malthusian argument remains a major discourse based on which national and international environmental regulations are promoted. In 1798, Thomas Malthus proposed his hypothesis in An Essay on the Principle of Population . He argued that although human populations tend to increase, the happiness of a nation requires a like increase in food production. "The happiness of

14742-429: The wealthy, have been posited as key drivers of biodiversity loss and contemporary species extinction , with some researchers and environmentalists specifically suggesting this indicates a human overpopulation scenario. The Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services , released by IPBES in 2019, states that human population growth is a factor in biodiversity loss. IGI Global has uncovered

14868-520: The world can host. A 2004 meta-analysis of 69 such studies from 1694 until 2001 found the average predicted maximum number of people the Earth would ever have was 7.7 billion people, with lower and upper meta-bounds at 0.65 and 98 billion people, respectively. They conclude: "recent predictions of stabilized world population levels for 2050 exceed several of our meta-estimates of a world population limit". A 2012 United Nations report summarized 65 different estimated maximum sustainable population sizes and

14994-413: The world for very long stretches of time. In Babylonia during the period 1800 to 1600 BC, for example, the daily wage for a common laborer was enough to buy about 15 pounds of wheat. In Classical Athens in about 328 BC, the corresponding wage could buy about 24 pounds of wheat. In England in 1800 AD the wage was about 13 pounds of wheat. In spite of the technological developments across these societies,

15120-503: The world signed onto a " World Scientists' Warning to Humanity ," including a majority of the living Nobel prize-winners in the sciences. "The earth is finite," they wrote. "Its ability to absorb wastes and destructive effluent is finite. Its ability to provide food and energy is finite. Its ability to provide for growing numbers of people is finite. And we are fast approaching many of the earth's limits." The warning noted: Pressures resulting from unrestrained population growth put demands on

15246-492: The world's population indicate that the 2022 UN projections overestimated fertility rates by 10 to 20% and are already outdated, that the global fertility rate has possibly already fallen below the sub-replacement fertility level for the first time in human history, and that the global population will peak at approximately 9.5 billion by 2061. The 2024 UN projections report estimated that world population would peak at 10.29 billion in 2084 and decline to 10.18 billion by 2100, which

15372-440: The year 2100. However, other estimates predict additional downward pressure on fertility (such as more education and family planning) which could result in peak population during the 2060–2070 period rather than later. According to the UN, of the predicted growth in world population between 2020 and 2050, all of that change will come from less developed countries , and more than half will come from just 8 African countries. It

15498-510: Was 6% lower than the UN had estimated in 2014. Early discussions of overpopulation in English were spurred by the work of Thomas Malthus . Discussions of overpopulation follow a similar line of inquiry as Malthusianism and its Malthusian catastrophe , a hypothetical event where population exceeds agricultural capacity, causing famine or war over resources, resulting in poverty and depopulation. More recent discussion of overpopulation

15624-474: Was popularized by Paul Ehrlich in his 1968 book The Population Bomb and subsequent writings. Ehrlich described overpopulation as a function of overconsumption , arguing that overpopulation should be defined by a population being unable to sustain itself without depleting non-renewable resources . The belief that global population levels will become too large to sustain is a point of contentious debate. Those who believe global human overpopulation to be

15750-638: Was roughly 1.6 billion. By 1940, this figure had increased to 2.3 billion. Even more dramatic growth beginning in 1950 (above 1.8% per year) coincided with greatly increased food production as a result of the industrialization of agriculture brought about by the Green Revolution . The rate of human population growth peaked in 1964, at about 2.1% per year. Recent additions of a billion humans happened very quickly: 33 years to reach three billion in 1960, 14 years for four billion in 1974, 13 years for five billion in 1987, 12 years for six billion in 1999, 11 years for seven billion in 2010, and 12 years for 8 billion toward

15876-798: Was said to worsen conditions in the long run. This resulted, for example, in the English poor laws of 1834 and a hesitating response to the Irish Great Famine of 1845–52. The first World Population Conference was held in 1927 in Geneva, organized by the League of Nations and Margaret Sanger . Paul R. Ehrlich 's book The Population Bomb became a bestseller upon its release in 1968 and created renewed interest in overpopulation. The book predicted population growth would lead to famine , societal collapse , and other social, environmental and economic strife in

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