161-511: The First Ivorian Civil War was a civil conflict in the Ivory Coast (also known as Côte d'Ivoire) that began with a military rebellion on 19 September 2002 and ended with a peace agreement on 4 March 2007. The conflict pitted the government of Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo against a domestic insurgency led by the New Forces of Ivory Coast ( Forces nouvelles de Côte d'Ivoire ). Following
322-405: A 22% risk of falling into civil war in a given five-year period, while a country with no primary commodity exports has a 1% risk. When disaggregated, only petroleum and non-petroleum groupings showed different results: a country with relatively low levels of dependence on petroleum exports is at slightly less risk, while a high level of dependence on oil as an export results in slightly more risk of
483-417: A Government of National Reconciliation: Gbagbo would remain in office, but Seydou Diarra would be appointed as a non-partisan consensus prime minister, with the understanding that Diarra would not run in the next presidential election. The power-sharing government would include representation for all the agreement's signatories: the three major political parties (Bédié's PDCI, Ouattara's RDR, and Gbagbo's FDI),
644-697: A State. (b) That the insurgent civil authority exercises de facto authority over the population within a determinate portion of the national territory. (c) That the armed forces act under the direction of an organized authority and are prepared to observe the ordinary laws of war. (d) That the insurgent civil authority agrees to be bound by the provisions of the Convention. According to a 2017 review study of civil war research, there are three prominent explanations for civil war: greed-based explanations which center on individuals' desire to maximize their profits, grievance-based explanations which center on conflict as
805-462: A central aspect of national self-determination , while protecting and disguising continuities and even expansions of French and, especially, British imperial powers. While Ranabir Samaddar identifies the Dissolution of Austria-Hungary as an example of partition, resulting from competing national ambitions, he agrees partition gained prominence following World War I, particularly with the division of
966-401: A civil war as "a violent conflict within a country fought by organized groups that aim to take power at the center or in a region, or to change government policies". Ann Hironaka further specifies that one side of a civil war is the state . Stathis Kalyvas defines civil war as "armed combat taking place within the boundaries of a recognized sovereign entity between parties that are subject to
1127-506: A civil war rises approximately proportionately with the size of a country's population. There is a correlation between poverty and civil war, but the causality (which causes the other) is unclear. Some studies have found that in regions with lower income per capita, the likelihood of civil war is greater. Economists Simeon Djankov and Marta Reynal-Querol argue that the correlation is spurious, and that lower income and heightened conflict are instead products of other phenomena. In contrast,
1288-419: A civil war than national dependence on another primary commodity. The authors of the study interpreted this as being the result of the ease by which primary commodities may be extorted or captured compared to other forms of wealth; for example, it is easy to capture and control the output of a gold mine or oil field compared to a sector of garment manufacturing or hospitality services. A second source of finance
1449-419: A commercial truck – which they said was a delivery from Gbagbo's forces to Soro's internal rivals in the north – and warning that "the war isn't over yet. It is going to resume shortly". A sustained assault on the press followed, with newspapers partial to the north being banned and two presses destroyed; dissenting radio stations were silenced. On 4 November, Gbagbo's forces violated the prevailing ceasefire, as
1610-472: A common authority at the outset of the hostilities." The intensity at which a civil disturbance becomes a civil war is contested by academics. Some political scientists define a civil war as having more than 1,000 casualties, while others further specify that at least 100 must come from each side. The Correlates of War , a dataset widely used by scholars of conflict, classifies civil wars as having over 1000 war-related casualties per year of conflict. This rate
1771-799: A comprehensive ceasefire on 3 May, and, the same day, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 1479 , which established the UN Mission in Côte d'Ivoire (MINUCI, Mission des Nations unies en Côte d'Ivoire ) to monitor implementation of the Linas-Marcoussis Accord. MINUCI was headed by, and would assist, Tévoédirè, the UN Secretary General's Special Representative. MINUCI arrived in Ivory Coast on 27 June 2003; initially comprising 34 officers, it
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#17330853115221932-449: A coup d'état which overthrew Bédié. The coup originated in a mutiny , itself occasioned by Bédié's refusal to release detained RDR members or to meet other demands of the relevant faction of the military. Guéï had been fired by Bédié in 1995, reportedly because he declined to deploy the military during pre-election public demonstrations , and, once in office, he said that the new military government would seek to reverse Bédié's changes to
2093-524: A deployment of 70 additional paratroopers in October. France emphasised the forces' protection mandate, saying repeatedly that it was not intervening in the conflict, but the presence of French troops soon became crucial to the government's security, for example in barring rebel advances on the capital city, Yamoussoukro . It was also reported that France had agreed to provide Gbagbo's government with logistical support and tactical advice. However, both sides –
2254-453: A dramatic rise from the one-and-a-half-year average of the 1900–1944 period. While the rate of emergence of new civil wars has been relatively steady since the mid-19th century, the increasing length of those wars has resulted in increasing numbers of wars ongoing at any one time. For example, there were no more than five civil wars underway simultaneously in the first half of the 20th century while there were over 20 concurrent civil wars close to
2415-430: A mandate to police the buffer zone between the belligerents. However, in the first half of 2004, events inside Ivory Coast did not bode well for the implementation of the Linas-Marcoussis Accord, as relations between Ivorian actors continued to deteriorate. In mid-February, Ivorian authorities issued a ministerial decree which would "Ivorianise" workplaces, requiring that companies could only hire foreigners if they submitted
2576-515: A method of resolving conflict between competing national groups, but in neither case did it end communal violence. Rather, Fraser argues, partition merely gave these conflicts a "new dimension". Similarly, A. Dirk Moses asserts partition does not "so much solve minority issues as deposit them into different containers as minority issues reappear in partitioned units", rejecting what he calls "divine cartographies" that seek to "neatly map peoples as naturally emplaced in their homelands" for disregarding
2737-794: A plan to turn the post over to an Ivorian within two years. On 4 March, opposition party PDCI suspended its participation in the reconciliation government, accusing FPI ministers of taking unilateral decisions. On 10 March, one group of Young Patriots stormed the main Ivorian courthouse and physically attacked several magistrates ; while another attacked the Hotel du Golf, the residence of the New Forces ministers. The same week, responding to violent demonstrations by students in Daloa , state forces killed one student and wounded 48 others. On 25 March, opposition parties organised
2898-561: A political deadlock : MPCI demanded Gbagbo's removal, fresh elections, and a review of the constitution. By then, moreover, MPCI was no longer the sole rebel group involved in the conflict. While MPCI continued to hold much of the north and the government much of the south, by the end of November, two rebel groups were operating in the west, near the Liberian border: the Movement for Justice and Peace (MJP, Mouvement pour la justice et la paix ) and
3059-681: A public demonstration in Abidjan to call on the government to implement the Linas-Marcoussis Accord. In response, the security forces and pro-government militias opened fire on the demonstrators, while other opposition supporters were rounded up by militias in subsequent days. In May, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights concluded an inquiry into the march and aftermath, finding that: at least 120 people were killed, 274 wounded and 20 disappeared . These figures are by no means final... It
3220-626: A response to socioeconomic or political injustice, and opportunity-based explanations which center on factors that make it easier to engage in violent mobilization. According to the study, the most influential explanation for civil war onset is the opportunity-based explanation by James Fearon and David Laitin in their 2003 American Political Science Review article. Scholars investigating the cause of civil war are attracted by two opposing theories, greed versus grievance . Roughly stated: are conflicts caused by differences of ethnicity, religion or other social affiliation , or do conflicts begin because it
3381-445: A standardized avenue to influence government and increase the commitment credibility of established peace treaties. It is the strength of a nation's institutionalization and good governance—not the presence of democracy nor the poverty level—that is the number one indicator of the chance of a repeat civil war, according to Walter. High levels of population dispersion and, to a lesser extent, the presence of mountainous terrain, increased
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#17330853115223542-460: A stronger emphasis should be put on personal data and human perspective of the people in conflict. Beyond Keen, several other authors have introduced works that either disprove greed vs. grievance theory with empirical data, or dismiss its ultimate conclusion. Authors such as Cristina Bodea and Ibrahim Elbadawi, who co-wrote the entry, "Riots, coups and civil war: Revisiting the greed and grievance debate", argue that empirical data can disprove many of
3703-522: A study by Alex Braithwaite and colleagues showed systematic evidence of "a causal arrow running from poverty to conflict". While there is a supposed negative correlation between absolute welfare levels and the probability of civil war outbreak, relative deprivation may actually be a more pertinent possible cause. Historically, higher inequality levels led to higher civil war probability. Since colonial rule or population size are known to increase civil war risk, also, one may conclude that "the discontent of
3864-402: A violent dispute over the result of the 2000 presidential election . Three successive Ivorian leaders – Henri Konan Bédié from 1993, Robert Guéï from 1999, and Gbagbo from 2000 – exploited the ideology of Ivoirité to repress and marginalise political opposition , notably by disqualifying Alassane Ouattara from contesting elections on the basis of his putative Burkinabé nationality; in
4025-636: Is a small fraction of the millions killed in the Second Sudanese Civil War and Cambodian Civil War , for example, but excludes several highly publicized conflicts, such as The Troubles of Northern Ireland and the struggle of the African National Congress in Apartheid -era South Africa . Based on the 1,000-casualties-per-year criterion, there were 213 civil wars from 1816 to 1997, 104 of which occurred from 1944 to 1997. If one uses
4186-441: Is equally clear that many of the killings on these two days did not take place in the street but in the dwellings of would-be demonstrators or even innocent civilians targeted by the security forces simply because of their name, origin or community group. It was a well-known fact that police officers or other security officials or parallel forces would harass, try to rob, or search and arrest without warrants people in Abidjan even in
4347-701: Is in the economic best interests of individuals and groups to start them? Scholarly analysis supports the conclusion that economic and structural factors are more important than those of identity in predicting occurrences of civil war. A comprehensive study of civil war was carried out by a team from the World Bank in the early 21st century. The study framework, which came to be called the Collier–Hoeffler Model, examined 78 five-year increments when civil war occurred from 1960 to 1999, as well as 1,167 five-year increments of "no civil war" for comparison, and subjected
4508-400: Is national diasporas , which can fund rebellions and insurgencies from abroad. The study found that statistically switching the size of a country's diaspora from the smallest found in the study to the largest resulted in a sixfold increase in the chance of a civil war. Higher male secondary school enrollment, per capita income and economic growth rate all had significant effects on reducing
4669-404: Is not. The study therefore concluded that the economic model of opportunity cost better explained the findings. Most proxies for "grievance"—the theory that civil wars begin because of issues of identity, rather than economics—were statistically insignificant, including economic equality, political rights, ethnic polarization and religious fractionalization. Only ethnic dominance, the case where
4830-666: Is provided in the text of the Conventions. Nevertheless, the International Committee of the Red Cross has sought to provide some clarification through its commentaries on the Geneva Conventions , noting that the Conventions are "so general, so vague, that many of the delegations feared that it might be taken to cover any act committed by force of arms". Accordingly, the commentaries provide for different 'conditions' on which
4991-453: Is the physical division of territory along ethno-religious lines into separate nation-states . They locate partition in the context of post- World War I peacebuilding and the "new conversations surrounding ethnicity, nationhood, and citizenship" that emerged out of it. The post-war agreements, such as the League of Nations mandate system , promoted "a new political language of ethnic separatism as
First Ivorian Civil War - Misplaced Pages Continue
5152-455: The 1995 presidential election , opposition politicians began to organise for democratic regime change in open and competitive elections. One powerful opposition leader was Laurent Gbagbo , whose Ivorian Popular Front (FPI, Front populaire ivoirien ) had long agitated for democratisation under Houphouët-Boigny. Another was Alassane Ouattara , Houphouët-Boigny's Prime Minister , who had launched an abortive challenge to Bédié's leadership in
5313-671: The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) launched peace negotiations in Accra, Ghana , under the mediation of a high-level contact group comprising representatives from Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and Togo. This initiative resulted on 17 October in a ceasefire between MPCI and the Ivorian government, as well as an agreement to continue substantive peace talks under ECOWAS auspices. Further bilateral talks were held in Lomé, Togo , in October and November, but failed to break
5474-857: The Ivorian Popular Movement of the Great West (MPIGO, Mouvement populaire ivoirien du Grand Ouest ), and the Movement for Justice and Peace (MJP, Mouvement pour la justice et la paix ). Guillaume Soro led the MPCI, whose insurgency began the war, and he became the general secretary of FNCI. At least a significant portion of MPCI was aligned or sympathetic to the Rally of the Republicans (RDR, Rassemblement des républicains ), Alassane Ouattara 's opposition party, while MPIGO and MJP claimed allegiance to Ivory Coast's former military leader, Robert Guéï , who died at
5635-437: The Ivorian Popular Movement of the Great West (MPIGO, Mouvement populaire ivoirien du Grand Ouest ). Both groups demanded Gbagbo's resignation and revenge for Guéï's death. On 28 November, MJP and MPIGO took control of Man , and French troops were drawn into hot conflict for the first time, recapturing the airport in a battle which killed ten rebels and injured one French soldier. On the government side, FPI supporters, led by
5796-571: The Liberian Civil War , and, according to a March 2003 report by Global Witness , 90% of MJP and MPIGO forces were Liberian or Sierra Leonean mercenaries, many of them ex-members of Charles Taylor 's Revolutionary United Front . President Laurent Gbagbo was supported by loyalists in the state security services and National Armed Forces (FANCI, Forces armées nationales de Côte d'Ivoire ). In addition, he reportedly recruited foreign mercenaries , some of whom had previously been affiliated with
5957-665: The Salvadoran Civil War , Wood finds that traditional explanations of greed and grievance are not sufficient to explain the emergence of that insurgent movement. Instead, she argues that "emotional engagements" and "moral commitments" are the main reasons why thousand of civilians, most of them from poor and rural backgrounds, joined or supported the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front , despite individually facing both high risks and virtually no foreseeable gains. Wood also attributes participation in
6118-552: The Student Federation of Ivory Coast (FESCI, Fédération estudiantine et scolaire de Côte d'Ivoire ). According to the International Crisis Group, the rebellion involved about 750 troops, but it reportedly originated in a smaller protest of about 200 soldiers, primarily from the north of the country, who objected to their demobilisation by the government, viewing it as ethnically motivated. A severe response from
6279-522: The UN Operation in Côte d'Ivoire , which deployed in April 2004 and absorbed the smaller contingent of peacekeepers that had been deployed earlier by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The violence had largely subsided by the end of 2004, but the country remained under de facto partition – with a rebel-held north and a government-held south – while the political crisis continued. Though
6440-489: The UN Secretary-General ). The New Forces had inherited MPCI's position in the negotiations: the rebels demanded a fresh election, viewing as illegitimate the results of the 2000 election; while the Ivorian government insisted that Gbagbo should complete his presidential term. The parties signed a compromise peace agreement , the Linas-Marcoussis Accord, on 26 January. The agreement provided for power-sharing through
6601-566: The Young Patriots (COJEP, Congrès panafricain des jeunes et des patriotes ), clashed frequently with opposition supporters in violent communal political demonstrations. By the middle of December 2002, 400 people had died in the conflict and 100,000 more had been displaced . At that time, there were more than 2,500 French troops, including members of the Foreign Legion , in the Ivory Coast; their mission had been enhanced, to include enforcing
First Ivorian Civil War - Misplaced Pages Continue
6762-543: The ethno-linguistic fractionalization index (ELF) used by Fearon, Laitin and other political scientists is flawed. ELF, Cederman states, measures diversity on a country's population-wide level and makes no attempt to determine the number of ethnic groups in relation to what role they play in the power of the state and its military. Cederman believes it makes little sense to test hypotheses relating national ethnic diversity to civil war outbreak without any explicit reference to how many different ethnic groups actually hold power in
6923-430: The 138 intrastate conflicts between the end of World War II and 2000 saw international intervention. A civil war is often a high-intensity conflict, often involving regular armed forces , that is sustained, organized and large-scale. Civil wars may result in large numbers of casualties and the consumption of significant resources. Civil wars since the end of World War II have lasted on average just over four years,
7084-417: The 17 October ceasefire by maintaining a buffer zone between rebel forces in the north and government in the south. In December, the rebels regrouped politically, with MJP and MPGIO joined MPCI as junior partners in a new political coalition, the New Forces of Ivory Coast (FNCI, Forces Nouvelles de Côte d'Ivoire ), led by Guillaume Soro of the MPCI. This merger was viewed as a strategic choice to improve
7245-518: The 1815 Congress of Vienna as the United Kingdom , Habsburg Austria , Prussia , France , and Russia ) would frequently coordinate interventions in other nations' civil wars, nearly always on the side of the incumbent government. Given the military strength of the Great Powers, these interventions nearly always proved decisive and quickly ended the civil wars. There were several exceptions from
7406-563: The 1995 presidential election, Bédié had the National Assembly amend the electoral code to require that presidential candidates should be Ivorian-born with two Ivorian-born parents (where previously only one such parent had been required). This was viewed as a strategic move to avert a leadership challenge from Ouattara, who at that point remained Bédié's rival inside PDCI. Former army commander Robert Guéï assumed power in December 1999, in
7567-427: The 19th century and in the early 20th century tended to be short; civil wars between 1900 and 1944 lasted on average one and a half years. The state itself formed the obvious center of authority in the majority of cases, and the civil wars were thus fought for control of the state. This meant that whoever had control of the capital and the military could normally crush resistance. A rebellion which failed to quickly seize
7728-535: The African regional response, as the AU Peace and Security Council – and South Africa individually – opposed the coercive measures which ECOWAS favoured. At this stage, the security situation – even around the buffer zone – remained unstable, obstructing UNOCI's movement and operations. In mid-January 2006, UN bases in Abidjan, Daloa , Guiglo , and San-Pédro were besieged by thousands of pro-government demonstrators, after
7889-630: The French ambassador 's residence; while former President Bédié was accommodated at the Canadian ambassador's residence. Having failed to take Abidjan, the rebels – who later identified themselves as the Patriotic Movement of Ivory Coast (MPCI, Mouvement patriotique de Côte d'Ivoire ) – retreated northwards, and they quickly established control over much of the north, including the cities of Bouaké and Korhogo . Ivory Coast's former colonial power, France,
8050-471: The French Operation Licorne to remain in place under its own chain of command . The "opening salvo" in the war was a rebellion against Gbagbo's government by Ivorian troops, who on 19 September 2002 executed a well-coordinated simultaneous attack on three Ivorian cities, including the largest city, Abidjan . It was reportedly planned by former pro-RDR or pro-Guéï dissidents in the military and in
8211-525: The Ivorian government had also recruited foreign combatants, primarily from Liberia, and including child soldiers . According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute , between 2002 and 2004, the Ivorian government purchased arms from Angola, Belarus, Bulgaria, Israel, Romania, and Ukraine. The French military launched its intervention in Ivory Coast, Opération Licorne , on 22 September 2002, three days after
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#17330853115228372-444: The Linas-Marcoussis Accord was interpreted, by its Ivorian critics, as providing confirmation that France was attempting to undermine Gbagbo's leadership. Gbagbo's supporters blamed France for coercing him to accept the agreement. Indeed, in "a clear move to distance himself" from the agreement – which he referred to as a "proposal" – Gbagbo had not signed it, but had sent another representative to sign on FPI's behalf. Immediately after
8533-403: The Linas-Marcoussis Accord with hostility. Opposition came especially from the military, which rejected New Forces control of the interior and defence ministries and the integration of the rebels into the army. Opposition to the agreement also acquired strong overtones of anti-French sentiment : French neutrality during the early phases of Operation Licorne had already been viewed as suspect, and
8694-477: The London School of Economics is one of the major critics of greed vs. grievance theory, defined primarily by Paul Collier, and argues the point that a conflict, although he cannot define it, cannot be pinpointed to simply one motive. He believes that conflicts are much more complex and thus should not be analyzed through simplified methods. He disagrees with the quantitative research methods of Collier and believes
8855-554: The Ottoman Empire. By this point, he argues ethnicity had become the primary justification of border proposals. After World War II , Dubnov and Robson argue partition transformed from "an imperial tactic into an organizing principle" of world diplomacy". Scholarship has closely linked partition to violence. Tracing the precedent for the Partition of Ireland in population resettlements across former Ottoman Empire territories and
9016-545: The South Africa-based Executive Outcomes , and including a number of Belarusian pilots. Various civilian militias supported Gbagbo and his political party, the Ivorian Popular Front (FPI, Front populaire ivoirien ) – the most important among them was the Young Patriots' Pan-African Congress (COJEP, Congrès panafricain des jeunes et des patriotes ). In 2005, Human Rights Watch reported that
9177-472: The UN Security Council adopted unanimously its first resolution on the Ivorian crisis, calling, in Resolution 1464 , for the implementation of the peace agreement, and expressing approval of the French and ECOWAS presence in Ivory Coast. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan appointed Albert Tévoédjrè as his Special Representative in Ivory Coast. Inside Ivory Coast, however, FPI and government supporters regarded
9338-494: The UN Security Council followed suit. On 21 October, the Security Council adopted Resolution 1633 , which called for the establishment of an international ministerial working group and mediation group – mandated to draw up a road map for holding elections – and demanded the appointment, by consensus, of a new prime minister in Ivory Coast. Following a delay, both directives were implemented, with Charles Konan Banny appointed
9499-604: The UN downgraded Ivory Coast's security rating, reflecting an improvement in conditions. On 13 September, Gbagbo finally made permanent appointments to the defence and interior portfolios. However, he declined to appoint the defence candidate proposed by the National Security Council, retired General Ouassenan Koré. Angered by this unilateral deviation from the Accra II agreement, New Forces representatives announced they would protest
9660-514: The Young Patriots took over the Ivorian state-run radio and television stations and sent out a call for civilians to attack UNOCI and the French. The New York Times reported that four people had died in the clashes. In early November 2006, the UN Security Council agreed to delay elections further, extending Gbagbo and Banny's terms for another "new and final" transition period of one year. Resolution 1721 , lobbied for by France, also strengthened
9821-409: The accord was signed, the Young Patriots organised violent anti-French protests, apparently with Gbagbo's backing. A demonstration in Abidjan on 2 February drew 100,000 protesters, who objected to "French occupation " and to the power-sharing deal. The demonstrations continued on a daily basis, and at one point involved an attempt to seize the airport to prevent Diarra from returning to Abidjan to head
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#17330853115229982-567: The air raid. The UN Security Council passed Resolution 1572 on 15 November, imposing an immediate arms embargo on Ivory Coast, though the effectiveness of the embargo is debatable. It also authorised targeted sanctions on Ivorian spoilers, and threatened to impose such sanctions if the belligerents did not return to peace negotiations timeously. On 3 to 6 April 2005, South African President Thabo Mbeki chaired peace talks in Pretoria, South Africa , arranged under African Union (AU) auspices with
10143-483: The appearance of French domination of the peace process. The objective of the talks was to revise the power-sharing formula outlined in the Linas-Marcoussis Accord. At Accra II, the parties re-committed to implementing the initial agreement, and, to this end, the New Forces renounced its claims on the defence and interior ministries. Instead, a fifteen-member National Security Council would be established and would agree on candidates to fill those posts. The parties signed
10304-566: The application of the Geneva Convention would depend; the commentary, however, points out that these should not be interpreted as rigid conditions. The conditions listed by the ICRC in its commentary are as follows: (1) That the Party in revolt against the de jure Government possesses an organized military force, an authority responsible for its acts, acting within a determinate territory and having
10465-480: The army. An attempted coup in January 2001, which Gbagbo blamed on the interference of Burkina Faso, led to renewed attacks on Burkinabé residents by FPI supporters. The primary rebel force in the civil war was the New Forces of Ivory Coast (FNCI, Forces nouvelles de Côte d'Ivoire ), created in December 2002 as a coalition between the Patriotic Movement of Ivory Coast (MPCI, Mouvement patriotique de Côte d'Ivoire ),
10626-466: The beginning of the war. The Ivorian government claimed that MPCI was supported by Burkina Faso, an allegation which Burkinabé President Blaise Compaore repeatedly denied. The International Crisis Group , however, regarded the allegation as plausible: sources in the Burkinabé government reported that arms had been delivered to the rebels by air, and Western intelligence proved that some of the arms used in
10787-424: The buffer zone between the belligerents. It had an initial authorised strength of 6,240 uniformed personnel, and was further expanded by Resolution 1609 in 2005 and Resolution 1682 in 2006. By mid-2007, it comprised just over 9,000 uniformed personnel from more than 40 countries. ECOWAS re-hatted its troops and handed over to UNOCI in April 2004, but, for practical and financial reasons, the Security Council allowed
10948-486: The capital and control of the military for itself normally found itself doomed to rapid destruction. For example, the fighting associated with the 1871 Paris Commune occurred almost entirely in Paris , and ended quickly once the military sided with the government at Versailles and conquered Paris. The power of non-state actors resulted in a lower value placed on sovereignty in the 18th and 19th centuries, which further reduced
11109-562: The ceasefire. However, its deployment was delayed, and the first contingent of troops did not arrive until 18 January 2003 and consisted of only 172 soldiers. According to the International Peace Institute , the inadequacy of ECOWAS's intervention motivated France to lobby in the United Nations (UN) Security Council for a UN peacekeeping operation and, in January 2003, to spearhead peace talks. From 15 to 26 January 2003,
11270-666: The central variant of Ivoirité was framed as a form of patriotism and used national origin as the measure of "Ivorianness". Yet adjudicating residents' claims to Ivorian nationality was a complicated task, resting on a controversial distinction between " indigenous " Ivorians and Ivorians "of immigrant ancestry". Groups perceived as foreign had long histories of migration to Ivory Coast, both before and during colonialism – Burkinabés, for example, had been represented among Ivorian residents since before states existed in either Burkina Faso or Ivory Coast – and many of their members had been citizens for multiple generations. In this context, even
11431-456: The chance of civil war. Specifically, a male secondary school enrollment 10% above the average reduced the chance of a conflict by about 3%, while a growth rate 1% higher than the study average resulted in a decline in the chance of a civil war of about 1%. The study interpreted these three factors as proxies for earnings forgone by rebellion, and therefore that lower forgone earnings encourage rebellion. Phrased another way: young males (who make up
11592-445: The chance of conflict. Both of these factors favor rebels, as a population dispersed outward toward the borders is harder to control than one concentrated in a central region, while mountains offer terrain where rebels can seek sanctuary. Rough terrain was highlighted as one of the more important factors in a 2006 systematic review. The various factors contributing to the risk of civil war rise increase with population size. The risk of
11753-468: The civil war to the value that insurgents assigned to changing social relations in El Salvador , an experience she defines as the "pleasure of agency". Ann Hironaka , author of Neverending Wars , divides the modern history of civil wars into the pre-19th century, 19th century to early 20th century, and late 20th century. In 19th-century Europe, the length of civil wars fell significantly, largely due to
11914-433: The colonized, caused by the creation of borders across tribal lines and bad treatment by the colonizers" is one important cause of civil conflicts. The more time that has elapsed since the last civil war, the less likely it is that a conflict will recur. The study had two possible explanations for this: one opportunity-based and the other grievance-based. The elapsed time may represent the depreciation of whatever capital
12075-514: The conduct of internal conflicts". James Fearon and David Laitin find that ethnic and religious diversity does not make civil war more likely. They instead find that factors that make it easier for rebels to recruit foot soldiers and sustain insurgencies, such as "poverty—which marks financially & bureaucratically weak states and also favors rebel recruitment—political instability, rough terrain, and large populations" make civil wars more likely. Such research finds that civil wars happen because
12236-444: The conflict and threatened to derail the peace process entirely, as pro-Gbagbo youths rioted against the French response and looted French-owned businesses, triggering yet another wave of Western evacuations: in two weeks, some 9,000 expatriates left the country. On 7 November, French forces opened fire on rioters in Abidjan, killing between 20 and 60 people according to French and Ivorian estimates respectively. The clashes strengthened
12397-402: The conflict, the French intervention was attacked by Ivorian nationalists as a manifestation of neocolonialism , leading to sustained public demonstrations and in 2004, fatal clashes between Ivorian and French forces. The United Nations (UN) was involved in the conflict first through a political mission, the UN Mission in Côte d'Ivoire , and then through an ambitious peacekeeping mission,
12558-519: The constitution – approached. In early September, both the New Forces and the opposition parties said that elections held on 30 October as planned would not be free and fair . In early October, the AU's Peace and Security Council conceded that Gbagbo could remain in office for up to 12 months further. Despite objections from the PDCI and RDR, as well as its two smaller partners in the opposition Houphouëtist alliance ,
12719-684: The country average”, going against the opportunity-based explanation for civil war outbreak. Michael Bleaney, Professor of International Economics at the University of Nottingham , published a 2009 paper titled Incidence, Onset and Duration of Civil Wars: A Review of the Evidence , which tested numerous variables for their relationship to civil war outbreak with different datasets, including that utilized by Fearon and Laitin. Bleaney concluded that neither ethnoreligious diversity, as measured by fractionalization, nor another variable, ethnic polarization, defined as
12880-495: The country avoided ethnic dominance. The study interpreted this as stating that minority groups are more likely to rebel if they feel that they are being dominated, but that rebellions are more likely to occur the more homogeneous the population and thus more cohesive the rebels. These two factors may thus be seen as mitigating each other in many cases. David Keen, a professor at the Development Studies Institute at
13041-515: The country lacked established mechanisms to regulate democratic competition. As required by the constitution following his death, Houphouët-Boigny was succeeded by Henri Konan Bédié , the President of the National Assembly , who also replaced Houphouët-Boigny at the head of the ruling Democratic Party of Ivory Coast (PDCI, French : Parti démocratique de la Côte d'Ivoire ). However, ahead of
13202-522: The country remained bifurcated under a de facto north-south partition , while inter-ethnic violence continued in the west, particularly between local Guéré and Yacouba . By then, over 700,000 people had been displaced in the conflict. On 27 February 2004, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 1528 , authorising the replacement of MINUCI with an ambitious peacekeeping operation, the United Nations Operation in Côte d'Ivoire (UNOCI), with
13363-466: The country's Christians , and were particularly numerous in the north of the country. Although immigration slowed from the 1990s, the Muslim population continued to grow in demographic importance due to a widening fertility gap. Academic analyses agree that a key root cause of the Ivorian civil war was the spread of nativist and xenophobic discourse, its mobilisation by opportunistic politicians, and
13524-432: The country, opposition supporters clashed with the Young Patriots ( Congrès panafricain des jeunes et des patriotes ) and other pro-government militias . The conflict attracted an extraordinary amount of international attention. Ivory Coast's former colonial power, France, launched a military intervention soon after the initial rebellion. Though Opération Licorne had a protection mandate and pleaded its neutrality in
13685-432: The data set to regression analysis to see the effect of various factors. The factors that were shown to have a statistically significant effect on the chance that a civil war would occur in any given five-year period were: A high proportion of primary commodities in national exports significantly increases the risk of a conflict. A country at "peak danger", with commodities comprising 32% of gross domestic product , has
13846-496: The days preceding 25 March. However, these activities had greatly intensified since 23 March and contributed to the explosive environment. Credible accounts received by the Commission indicate that these actions too had been planned and directed by the security forces and later executed in cooperation and collusion with the parallel forces. In protest against the violence, the New Forces and Ouattara's RDR announced their withdrawal from
14007-468: The deaths that the French response had caused. In 2016, a French judicial investigation recommended that three French ministers – Michel Barnier , Dominique de Villepin and Michèle Alliot-Marie – be referred for prosecution for allegedly having obstructed an investigation into the initial Ivorian air raid. In 2021, a Paris court issued life sentences to two Ivorian officers and one Belarusian mercenary, who in absentia had been found guilty of carrying out
14168-415: The demobilisation and disarmament process – or to allow government administrators to return to the north of the country – until Gbagbo had made permanent appointments to the sensitive ministries of defence and the interior. Gbagbo also had not fulfilled his promise to revise electoral eligibility requirements. Progress appeared imminent by September 2003. Ivory Coast reopened its border with Burkina Faso, and
14329-516: The disarmament programme. The rebels agreed to rejoin the reconciliation government, and Gbagbo agreed to revise article 35 of the constitution, which until then had disqualified Ouattara from standing in presidential elections. However, by October, it was apparent that the Accra III agreement had not broken the implementation deadlock: on 12 October, Gbagbo announced that he would not submit the revised article 35 for National Assembly approval until after
14490-531: The electoral code. However, it did the opposite: in July 2000, the Ivory Coast adopted by referendum a constitutional amendment which, under article 35 of the constitution, would permanently restrict eligibility for the presidency to those "of Ivorian origin, born of a father and mother who are also Ivorian by birth". This provision was used to maintain Ouattara's disqualification, and the candidacy of other opposition leaders
14651-505: The end of the Cold War . Since 1945, civil wars have resulted in the deaths of over 25 million people, as well as the forced displacement of millions more. Civil wars have further resulted in economic collapse; Somalia , Burma (Myanmar), Uganda and Angola are examples of nations that were considered to have had promising futures before being engulfed in civil wars. James Fearon , a scholar of civil wars at Stanford University , defines
14812-422: The extent to which individuals in a population are distributed across different ethnic groups, were "a sufficient measure of diversity as it affects the probability of conflict." In a state torn by civil war, the contesting powers often do not have the ability to commit or the trust to believe in the other side's commitment to put an end to war. When considering a peace agreement, the involved parties are aware of
14973-421: The failure of external solutions, it is time for Ivorians to assume total ownership of the peace process". The new framework revolved around "direct dialogue" between the New Forces and Gbagbo's FPI, to be undertaken bilaterally without international mediation. Bilateral pre-negotiations had in fact been underway in secret since mid-2006. Civil war A civil war is a war between organized groups within
15134-699: The first since 2000, Gbagbo refused to accept the result, sparking a renewed political crisis and the beginning of the Second Ivorian Civil War . When Ivorian President Félix Houphouët-Boigny died in 1993, the end of his thirty-three-year presidency inaugurated a prolonged "crisis of succession", which destabilised Ivorian politics for the remainder of the 1990s. Since the Ivory Coast's independence from France in 1960, Houphouët-Boigny had maintained Ivorian political and economic stability using mechanisms largely dependent on his own personal charisma , networks, and so-called Françafrique connections;
15295-408: The general rule of quick civil wars during this period. The American Civil War (1861–1865) was unusual for at least two reasons: it was fought around regional identities as well as political ideologies, and it ended through a war of attrition , rather than with a decisive battle over control of the capital, as was the norm. The Spanish Civil War (1936–1939) proved exceptional because both sides in
15456-561: The geographical distribution of ethnic groups within countries, as this can affect their access to regional resources and commodities, which in turn can lead to conflict. A third theme explored by Cederman is that ethnolinguistic fractionalization does not quantify the extent to which there is pre-existing economic inequality between ethnic groups within countries. In a 2011 article, Cederman and fellow researchers describe finding that “in highly unequal societies, both rich and poor groups fight more often than those groups whose wealth lies closer to
15617-458: The government and the rebels – accused France of supporting the other, and the French intervention faced opposition from a segment of the Ivorian public: on 22 October, French troops dispersed a demonstration outside their base, using grenades and tear gas to do so. The conflict continued to intensify, as both sides recruited and armed thousands of civilians – and, on the government side, contracted foreign mercenaries . However, on September 29,
15778-401: The government – which included demolishing the homes of immigrant workers accused of supporting the rebellion – was supported by ad hoc pro-government militias . Guéï was shot dead on the day of the rebellion – according to his family, while having lunch – "in circumstances that lead many to believe the government wanted him eliminated". After Ouattara's house was burned down, he took refuge at
15939-435: The heaviest casualties suffered by a French operation since the 1983 Beirut barrack bombings . France rejected the Ivorian claim that the bombing had been accidental, and French President Jacques Chirac ordered the retaliatory destruction of both Ivorian Sukhoi Su-25 and five MI-24 ground attack helicopters – the entirety of the Ivorian air force's fleet. The French–Ivorian clashes which followed represented "a new peak" in
16100-466: The heterogeneous reality of identity in the real world. Daniel Posner has argued that partitions of diverse communities into homogenous communities is unlikely to solve problems of communal conflict, as the boundary changes will alter the actors' incentives and give rise to new cleavages. For example, while the Muslim and Hindu cleavages might have been the most salient amid the Indian independence movement ,
16261-701: The high incentives to withdraw once one of them has taken an action that weakens their military, political or economical power. Commitment problems may deter a lasting peace agreement as the powers in question are aware that neither of them is able to commit to their end of the bargain in the future. States are often unable to escape conflict traps (recurring civil war conflicts) due to the lack of strong political and legal institutions that motivate bargaining, settle disputes, and enforce peace settlements. Political scientist Barbara F. Walter suggests that most contemporary civil wars are actually repeats of earlier civil wars that often arise when leaders are not accountable to
16422-519: The incentive to secede. The two major global ideologies, monarchism and democracy , led to several civil wars. However, a bi-polar world, divided between the two ideologies, did not develop, largely due to the dominance of monarchists through most of the period. The monarchists would thus normally intervene in other countries to stop democratic movements taking control and forming democratic governments, which were seen by monarchists as being both dangerous and unpredictable. The Great Powers (defined in
16583-420: The increasingly popular patriotic analysis, the crisis in Ivory Coast was a "war of second independence" from France's neocolonial influence, and international intervention in the crisis consisted in an attack on Ivorian sovereignty , particularly insofar as the Linas-Marcoussis Accord was viewed as recognising the legitimacy of the New Forces rebellion and as imposing constitutional change on Ivory Coast. Gbagbo
16744-521: The insurgents recognition as belligerents for the purposes only of the present Convention; or (d) That the dispute has been admitted to the agenda of the Security Council or the General Assembly of the United Nations as being a threat to international peace, a breach of the peace, or an act of aggression. (4) (a) That the insurgents have an organization purporting to have the characteristics of
16905-506: The intention of reviving the peace process. The resulting Pretoria Agreement, intended as a supplement to the Linas-Marcoussis Accord, established a cessation of hostilities and ended the state of war. Mbeki had been involved in the Accra III talks, and, by acknowledging Gbagbo's concerns about Ivorian sovereignty, was able to nudge Gbagbo to a deal on sensitive electoral issues – notably the eligibility in elections of all peace talk participants, including Ouattara; and international supervision of
17066-447: The largest ethnic group comprises a majority of the population, increased the risk of civil war. A country characterized by ethnic dominance has nearly twice the chance of a civil war. However, the combined effects of ethnic and religious fractionalization, i.e. the greater chance that any two randomly chosen people will be from separate ethnic or religious groups, the less chance of a civil war, were also significant and positive, as long as
17227-404: The late 1990s, with renewed economic downturn in Ivory Coast, exacerbated by the liberalisation of key agricultural sectors, notably coffee and cocoa, under an International Monetary Fund (IMF) structural adjustment programme. Ivory Coast has historically received large numbers of immigrants from neighbouring West African countries, especially Burkina Faso , and the flow of immigration
17388-410: The less-stringent 1,000 casualties total criterion, there were over 90 civil wars between 1945 and 2007, with 20 ongoing civil wars as of 2007. The Geneva Conventions do not specifically define the term "civil war"; nevertheless, they do outline the responsibilities of parties in "armed conflict not of an international character". This includes civil wars; however, no specific definition of civil war
17549-500: The locality of their place of birth, to a new National Identification Office (ONI, Office national d'identification ). This policy affected the voting rights not only of immigrants but also of many northern Ivorians. Thus the political transition to Gbago's government did little to ease ethnic tensions. For related reasons, and as throughout Guéï's rule, the mood in the military remained generally mutinous, and Gbagbo faced opposition from both Guéï loyalists and Ouattara sympathisers within
17710-434: The major European powers divested themselves of their colonies at an increasing rate: the number of ex-colonial states jumped from about 30 to almost 120 after the war. The rate of state formation leveled off in the 1980s, at which point few colonies remained. More states also meant more states in which to have long civil wars. Hironaka statistically measures the impact of the increased number of ex-colonial states as increasing
17871-519: The making of national 'majorities' and 'minorities', Dubnov and Robson emphasise how partitions after Ireland contained proposals to transfer "inconvenient populations in addition to forcible territorial division into separate states", which they note had violent consequences for local actors who were devolved the task of "carving out physically separate political entities on the ground and making them ethnically homogenous". T.G. Fraser notes how Britain proposed partition in both Ireland and Palestine as
18032-551: The mantle of Ivoirité and further entrenched it in state institutions. According to Human Rights Watch , Gbagbo's security forces committed abuses against civilians, targeting – on the basis of their nationality, ethnicity, or religion – immigrants, their descendants, and Ivorians from the north. Moreover, in 2001, the FPI government introduced a new national identification system, under which residents applying for official identity documents were required to prove their nationality, including
18193-439: The means of respecting and ensuring respect for the Convention. (2) That the legal Government is obliged to have recourse to the regular military forces against insurgents organized as military and in possession of a part of the national territory. (3) (a) That the de jure Government has recognized the insurgents as belligerents; (b) That it has claimed for itself the rights of a belligerent; or (c) That it has accorded
18354-558: The military launched air attacks against rebel positions in Bouaké and Korhogo . The Young Patriots launched another attack on New Forces residences at the Hotel du Golf, expelling Prime Minister Diarra. After the attacks, Soro of the New Forces declared the Linas-Marcoussis Accord and subsequent Accra agreements "null and void". On 6 November, one or two Ivorian Sukhoi Su-25 bombed an Operation Licorne base in Bouaké, killing nine French soldiers and an American aid worker and injuring 31 others,
18515-503: The more inclusive nationality-based variant of Ivoirité had a marked tendency to denigrate and exclude groups of Ivorian citizens, notably the Dioula population of northern Ivory Coast. Ouattara was himself Dioula – though he insisted he was an Ivorian national – and drew much of his support base from the predominantly Muslim north, particularly poor immigrants and their descendants on northern agricultural plantations. In November 1994, ahead of
18676-440: The move by suspending their participation in the reconciliation government. They also said that Gbagbo had refused to delegate executive powers to the prime minister and reconciliation government, as stipulated by the Linas-Marcoussis Accord, and warned that the resumption of violence was a real possibility. By the end of 2003, disarmament had not been implemented – in contravention of a 1 October deadline – and military authority in
18837-571: The multi-party Linas-Marcoussis Accord established a power-sharing Government of National Reconciliation in early 2003, its provisions regarding disarmament and political reform were not implemented. A comprehensive political settlement was finally reached in 2007, when Gbagbo and the New Forces signed the Ouagadougou Peace Agreement in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso . However, when the Ivory Coast held its presidential elections in 2010 ,
18998-523: The nature of the conflicts as battles for the power center of the state, the strength of centralized governments, and the normally quick and decisive intervention by other states to support the government. Following World War II the duration of civil wars grew past the norm of the pre-19th century, largely due to weakness of the many postcolonial states and the intervention by major powers on both sides of conflict. The most obvious commonality to civil wars are that they occur in fragile states . Civil wars in
19159-423: The new coalition government. Amid attacks on French nationals, businesses, and bases, France carried out another wave of evacuations of French nationals. These protests in early 2003 marked the beginning of a surge in activity by Ivory Coast's so-called "patriotic movement", which continued to depend on mobilisation by the Young Patriots and to receive encouragement from Gbagbo, himself a longstanding nationalist . In
19320-473: The new prime minister in December 2005. On 15 December, the Security Council's Resolution 1643 extended the arms embargo and established a new ban against the trade of Ivorian diamonds , marginally affecting the revenues of the New Forces. Although two Young Patriots leaders and one New Forces commander were subject to UN targeted sanctions (a travel ban and asset freezes ), the main protagonists avoided such measures; among other factors, discord had emerged in
19481-582: The next Ivorian elections. In June, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 1603 , calling on the UN Secretary-General to prepare to fulfil that supervisory role. Gbagbo also agreed to increase opposition representation on the Independent Electoral Commission and to disband pro-government militias. The New Forces and opposition parties mistrusted Mbeki, viewing him as a biased mediator, but did agree once again to disarm and to rejoin
19642-686: The number of civil wars. For example, the pirates of the Barbary Coast were recognized as de facto states because of their military power. The Barbary pirates thus had no need to rebel against the Ottoman Empire – their nominal state government – to gain recognition of their sovereignty. Conversely, states such as Virginia and Massachusetts in the United States of America did not have sovereign status, but had significant political and economic independence coupled with weak federal control, reducing
19803-508: The peace agreement. However, the violence did not entirely dissipate. In late August, Operation Licorne suffered its first casualties when two French soldiers were killed by rebels near Sakassou . The same week, French intelligence services in Paris arrested 10 people, including Ibrahim Coulibaly , who they said had been plotting to assassinate Gbagbo and destabilise the peace. Moreover, the political conflict raged on. The New Forces refused to begin
19964-432: The post-World War II incidence of civil wars by +165% over the pre-1945 number. Partition (politics) In politics , a partition is a change of political borders cutting through at least one territory considered a homeland by some community. Brendan O'Leary distinguishes partition from secession , which take place within existing recognized political units . For Arie Dubnov and Laura Robson , partition
20125-484: The powers of Prime Minister Banny, leading Gbagbo to warn that he would not carry out UN directives which were inconsistent with the Ivorian constitution. During this period, the Ivorian national football team was credited with boosting national reconciliation. In 2007, the team qualified for the 2008 African Cup of Nations in a game held in rebel-held Bouaké and attended by troops from both sides; similarly, in October 2005,
20286-611: The pro-Gbagbo "patriotic" narrative that the conflict involved a "second war of independence" from France. On 13 November, Mamadou Coulibaly , the President of the Ivorian National Assembly, declared that the government of the Ivory Coast did not take any responsibility for the 6 November bombardment, and announced that the government intended to approach the International Court of Justice to hold France responsible for its destruction of Ivorian air force equipment and for
20447-541: The process, these leaders stoked ethnic tensions and xenophobic sentiment in the country. The rebellion which ignited the war was driven by forces which sought a re-run of the 2000 election and reform of exclusionary citizenship policies. War broke out on 19 September 2002 when troops opposed to President Gbagbo – and under the political leadership of the Patriotic Movement of Ivory Coast (MPCI, Mouvement patriotique de Côte d'Ivoire ) – attacked three Ivorian cities, including Abidjan . Though they failed to take Abidjan,
20608-402: The proponents of greed theory and make the idea "irrelevant". They examine a myriad of factors and conclude that too many factors come into play with conflict, which cannot be confined to simply greed or grievance. Anthony Vinci makes a strong argument that "fungible concept of power and the primary motivation of survival provide superior explanations of armed group motivation and, more broadly,
20769-402: The public, when there is poor public participation in politics, and when there is a lack of transparency of information between the executives and the public. Walter argues that when these issues are properly reversed, they act as political and legal restraints on executive power forcing the established government to better serve the people. Additionally, these political and legal restraints create
20930-455: The rate of new civil wars had not increased appreciably; the drastic rise in the number of ongoing wars after World War II was a result of the tripling of the average duration of civil wars to over four years. This increase was a result of the increased number of states, the fragility of states formed after 1945, the decline in interstate war, and the Cold War rivalry. Following World War II,
21091-485: The rebellion was fought over and thus increase the opportunity cost of restarting the conflict. Alternatively, elapsed time may represent the gradual process of healing of old hatreds. The study found that the presence of a diaspora substantially reduced the positive effect of time, as the funding from diasporas offsets the depreciation of rebellion-specific capital. Evolutionary psychologist Satoshi Kanazawa has argued that an important cause of intergroup conflict may be
21252-426: The rebels had disarmed; the rebels announced, in response, that they would not disarm until real progress had been made towards credible elections. The New Forces therefore missed the October 15 deadline to begin disarmament, and in early November, as tensions mounted, they formally refused to disarm. By then, the New Forces had imposed a state of emergency in their territories, claiming to have found weaponry hidden in
21413-422: The rebels quickly established control over much of the north of the country. Two new rebel groups along the Liberian border, the Movement for Justice and Peace ( Mouvement pour la justice et la paix ) and the Ivorian Popular Movement of the Great West ( Mouvement populaire ivoirien du Grand Ouest ), battled government forces for western territory, before uniting with MPCI as the New Forces in December 2002. Across
21574-693: The rebels would control the important ministries of defence and the interior . The ultimate purpose of the Government of National Reconciliation was to allow credible elections to take place in 2005, and the appendix to the agreement outlined a nine-point plan for reforms to be undertaken to this end, including security sector reform , land tenure reform, and – perhaps most importantly – an end to divisive policies on citizenship, national identification, and electoral eligibility. The rebels agreed to disarm in exchange for amnesty and political representation. The agreement received international backing. On 4 February,
21735-453: The rebels' bargaining position ahead of upcoming peace talks. Thereafter, the New Forces administered its northern territories in ten "comzones", each headed by a zone commander , who was typically a former military officer. ECOWAS leaders had agreed on 18 December 2002 to deploy an ECOWAS Peace Force for Côte d'Ivoire, comprising 3,200 military personnel. The force was to arrive before the end of December and take over from France in monitoring
21896-473: The rebels' initial attacks had come from the Burkinabé Presidential Guard stocks. However, both International Crisis Group and Western intelligence reports gave less credence to Gbagbo's further accusation that Burkinabé troops had participated directly in the initial attacks. MPIGO and MJP were reported to have received assistance from the Liberian government, reflecting a partial spillover of
22057-475: The reconciliation government. In May, Gbagbo publicly lambasted the opposition for suspending their participation; shortly afterwards, it was announced that he had sacked (permanently) three opposition ministers: PDCI's Patrick Achi , the New Forces' Youssouff Soumahoro, and Soro, the leader of the New Forces. Soro called the move "tantamount to a coup d'état against the peace accords", and said that it would be impossible to establish peace in Ivory Coast until Gbagbo
22218-520: The reconciliation government. Rebel forces started to withdraw heavy weapons from the front line on 21 April, re-establishing the buffer zone, and the parties met in Pretoria again in June 2005 to review and reaffirm the agreement. Nonetheless, and possibly due to intentional delays by Gbagbo, election preparations were slow, even as the end of Gbagbo's five-year presidential term – 30 October 2005, according to
22379-726: The relative availability of women of reproductive age. He found that polygyny greatly increased the frequency of civil wars but not interstate wars. Gleditsch et al. did not find a relationship between ethnic groups with polygyny and increased frequency of civil wars but nations having legal polygamy may have more civil wars. They argued that misogyny is a better explanation than polygyny. They found that increased women's rights were associated with fewer civil wars and that legal polygamy had no effect after women's rights were controlled for. Political scholar Elisabeth Wood from Yale University offers yet another rationale for why civilians rebel and/or support civil war. Through her studies of
22540-454: The resulting ethnic tensions . Central in this regard was the rise of Ivoirité as an ideology and state policy under President Bédié, and its use to marginalise and exclude immigrants, their descendants, and certain groups of Ivorian citizens. Ethnic tensions, xenophobic sentiment, and related communal disputes in Ivory Coast predated Bédié's rule, but Houphouët-Boigny had been able to accommodate, manage, and suppress them. Under Bédié, however,
22701-682: The rise of Ivoirité politicised such disputes, making origin and religious affiliation "the prime markers of identity" in Ivory Coast. Land disputes were increasingly framed in ethnic terms, and became increasingly common in the late 1990s: Houphouët-Boigny's liberal land policies had extended access to land to both internal and foreign migrants, and rising urban unemployment in the 1990s – resulting in back-migration to rural areas – led to intensified competition over fertile land. Sociologist Francis Akindès notes that Ivoirité under Bédié had undertones which valorised Akan identity (the ethnic group of both Bédié and Houphouët-Boigny) and Christian identity; but
22862-550: The same state (or country ). The aim of one side may be to take control of the country or a region, to achieve independence for a region, or to change government policies. The term is a calque of Latin bellum civile which was used to refer to the various civil wars of the Roman Republic in the 1st century BC. Most modern civil wars involve intervention by outside powers. According to Patrick M. Regan in his book Civil Wars and Foreign Powers (2000) about two thirds of
23023-533: The signature of the Linas-Marcoussis Accord was followed by significant delays in its implementation, requiring the reopening of peace talks – though the Linas-Marcoussis Accord remained the basic framework within which all such talks took place between 2003 and 2006. On 7–8 March 2003, the first implementation stalemate was temporarily resolved during another summit in Accra, organised by ECOWAS and mediated by Ghanaian President John Kufuor , and therefore intended to mitigate
23184-523: The start of the war, with an initial focus on protecting French and other foreign nationals. Originally a contingent of 700, Opération Licorne comprised 4,000 troops by July 2003. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) deployed its own peace force on 18 January 2003. The United Nations (UN) had an official presence in Ivory Coast from 6 February 2003, when UN Secretary General Kofi Annan appointed Albert Tévoédjrè as his Special Representative in Ivory Coast. From 27 June 2003, Tévoédirè
23345-608: The state is weak; both authoritarian and democratic states can be stable if they have the financial and military capacity to put down rebellions. Some scholars, such as Lars-Erik Cederman of the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology , have criticized the data used by Fearon and Laitin to determine ethnic and religious diversity. In his 2007 paper Beyond Fractionalization: Mapping Ethnicity onto Nationalist Insurgencies , Cederman argues that
23506-455: The state. This suggests that ethnic, linguistic and religious cleavages can matter, depending on the extent to which the various groups have ability and influence to mobilize on either side of a forming conflict. Themes explored in Cederman's later work criticizing the use of ethnic fractionalization measures as input variables to predict civil war outbreak relate to these indices not accounting for
23667-453: The struggle received support from intervening great powers: Germany , Italy , and Portugal supported opposition leader Francisco Franco , while France and the Soviet Union supported the government (see proxy war ). In the 1990s, about twenty civil wars were occurring concurrently during an average year, a rate about ten times the historical average since the 19th century. However,
23828-399: The team's qualification for the 2006 FIFA World Cup sparked days of public celebration in Abidjan, and on some accounts was responsible for persuading the government and rebels to recommit to peace negotiations. Shortly after the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1721 , Gbagbo announced that he was preparing his own "new framework" to resolve the crisis, reflecting that, "Confronted by
23989-539: The three major rebel groups in the New Forces (MPCI, MJP, and MPIGO), and four smaller political parties – Movement of the Forces of the Future ( Mouvement des forces de l'avenir ), Ivorian Workers' Party ( Parti ivoirien des travailleurs ), Citizens' Democratic Union ( Union démocratique et citoyenne ), and Union for Democracy and Peace in Ivory Coast ( Union pour la démocratie et la paix en Côte d'Ivoire ). Most controversially,
24150-785: The various parties – government, rebel forces, and opposition political parties – met at Linas - Marcoussis , near Paris, France , to undertake substantive peace negotiations. The talks were "a French-driven initiative with inputs from regional organizations and the UN": they were chaired by Pierre Mazeaud , the chairman of the French Constitutional Council , who was assisted by Kéba Mbaye (a Senegalese judge), Seydou Diarra (former Ivorian prime minister and African Union (AU) special envoy ), Mohamed Ibn Chambas (the executive secretary of ECOWAS), and Ahmedou Ould Abdallah (the Special Representative for West Africa of
24311-437: The vast majority of combatants in civil wars) are less likely to join a rebellion if they are getting an education or have a comfortable salary, and can reasonably assume that they will prosper in the future. Low per capita income has also been proposed as a cause for grievance, prompting armed rebellion. However, for this to be true, one would expect economic inequality to also be a significant factor in rebellions, which it
24472-406: The war, a second civil war (2010–2011) would begin over the results of the 2010 Ivorian presidential election . The war was preceded by a tumultuous decade in the Ivory Coast, marked by an economic downturn and, following the death of long-time Ivorian President Félix Houphouët-Boigny in 1993, a leadership succession crisis. The succession crisis manifested in a 1999 military coup d'état and
24633-468: The weeks after Houphouët-Boigny's death, and who in 1994 split from PDCI to establish his own party, Rally of the Republicans (RDR, Rassemblement des républicains ). Both opposition groups boycotted the 1995 election in protest of changes to the electoral code ( see below ): Bédié's PDCI retained power, but at the cost of harming its popular legitimacy . After 1995, the opposition continued to gain political ground. This political change coincided, from
24794-448: The weeks after the rebellion, French and American forces evacuated 2,500 people – mostly foreign nationals – from the Ivory Coast. Operation Licorne was initially staffed by the 650 troops regularly based in Ivory Coast under the terms of a bilateral defence agreement. These were soon supplemented by additional troops shifted from French bases in Gabon and other African countries, as well as by
24955-516: Was also blocked. As a result, Gbagbo was the only major opposition figure allowed to challenge Guéï in the 2000 presidential election . Gbagbo won the election, although Guéï refused to cede power to him until forced to do so by violent public protests in which 206 people were killed and 1,207 injured. In the violence, FPI supporters reportedly targeted not only Guéï's forces but also supporters of Ouattara's RDR, as well as northerners and immigrants who they assumed supported RDR. President Gbagbo took up
25116-411: Was invested in the outcome of the conflict – given its significant business interests in Ivory Coast, and the presence of more than 20,000 French citizens there – but was extremely reluctant to intervene in support of Gbagbo. Nonetheless, on 22 September, France launched Operation Licorne , with an initial mandate focused on protecting and evacuating French nationals and other foreign nationals. Indeed, in
25277-452: Was planned to expand to 76 personnel by the end of the year. Notwithstanding the ceasefire, "extreme violence" continued in the western part of the country, necessitating in late May a joint operation involving elements of both government and rebel forces, as well as French and ECOWAS peacekeepers. On 4 July 2003, the government and New Forces announced publicly that the civil war was over, and that they had agreed to work together to implement
25438-406: Was portrayed as a nationalist pioneer, persecuting for upsetting the status quo of French hegemony . In the months after Linas-Marcoussis, this narrative was used by Gbagbo to deny the legitimacy of international decisions, in favour of reasserting presidential prerogatives , and to justify his reluctance to implement the peace agreement. In a pattern that would be maintained in subsequent years,
25599-432: Was removed from office. Peace talks resumed in July 2004 in Accra in an attempt to revitalise the peace process. An agreement signed upon the conclusion of the talks once again committed the parties to implement the Linas-Marcoussis Accord, this time "with specific deadlines and benchmarks for progress". The talks focused on addressing key obstacles to the peace process – notably electoral eligibility, citizenship reform, and
25760-531: Was supported by the UN Mission in Côte d'Ivoire (MINUCI, Mission des Nations unies en Côte d'Ivoire ), established by Resolution 1479 of the UN Security Council , with a mandate to monitor implementation of the Linas-Marcoussis Accord. The following year, Security Council Resolution 1528 replaced MINUCI with an ambitious peacekeeping operation, the United Nations Operation in Côte d'Ivoire (UNOCI). UNOCI deployed on 4 April 2004 and helped France police
25921-485: Was sustained after independence, both due to Ivory Coast's relative prosperity and due to the favourable policies of Houphouët-Boigny's government: for example, between 1960 and 1972, any person born in Ivory Coast could receive Ivorian citizenship , regardless of their parents' nationality . A majority of immigrants were Muslim : the share of Muslims in the Ivorian population increased from approximately six per cent in 1922 to 38.6 per cent in 1998. By then, they outnumbered
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