Misplaced Pages

#277722

138-569: As part of the London 2012 Cultural Olympiad, Hartley toured a scaled version of Nyskjæret round the South West coast of England as nowhereisland . According to its website, it provided a platform to engage with issues raised by the project, exploring a sense of place through an epic, nomadic sculpture and how we can respond to the issue of global warming . The island was discovered during a Cape Farewell expedition of scientists and artists, collaborating on

276-539: A biological advantage. Weeds also undergo the same acceleration of cycles as cultivated crops , and would also benefit from CO 2 fertilization . Since most weeds are C3 plants , they are likely to compete even more than now against C4 crops such as corn. The increased CO 2 levels are also expected to increase the tolerance of weeds to herbicides , reducing their efficiency. However, this may be counteracted by increased temperatures elevating their effectiveness. Currently, pathogens result in losses of 10–16% of

414-549: A broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's climate. The current rise in global temperatures is driven by human activities , especially fossil fuel burning since the Industrial Revolution . Fossil fuel use, deforestation , and some agricultural and industrial practices release greenhouse gases . These gases absorb some of the heat that the Earth radiates after it warms from sunlight , warming

552-574: A cultural response to global warming and the retreating Arctic ice pack. A large wall exhibit made from framed rock samples, letters, maps, photographs, and other documentation materials forms part of Cape Farewell - Art and Climate Change, and appeared in the National Conservation Centre in Liverpool as part of the 2006 biennial [1] . Nymark is also an area of the city Bergen in Norway. One of

690-587: A decadal timescale. Other changes are caused by an imbalance of energy from external forcings . Examples of these include changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases , solar luminosity , volcanic eruptions, and variations in the Earth's orbit around the Sun. To determine the human contribution to climate change, unique "fingerprints" for all potential causes are developed and compared with both observed patterns and known internal climate variability . For example, solar forcing—whose fingerprint involves warming

828-417: A decrease in minerals, evidence shows that plants contain 6% more carbon, 15% less nitrogen, 9% less phosphorus, and 9% less sulfur at double CO 2 conditions. The increase in carbon is mostly attributed to carbohydrates without a structural role in plants – the human-digestable, calorie-providing starch and simple sugars. The decrease in nitrogen translates directly into a decrease in the protein content. As

966-649: A larger number of crops than previously studied. It found that crop yields across Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and Australia had in general decreased because of climate change (compared to the baseline value of 2004–2008 average data), though exceptions are present. The effect of global climate change on yields of different crops from climate trends ranged from −13.4% (oil palm) to 3.5% (soybean). The study also showed that effects are generally positive in Latin America. Effects in Asia and Northern and Central America are mixed. While

1104-446: A loss. For example, a 1979 greenhouse study found that with doubled CO 2 concentration the dry weight of 40-day-old cotton plants doubled, but the dry weight of 30-day-old maize plants increased by only 20%. Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide may reduce the nutritional quality of some crops, with for instance wheat having less protein and less of some minerals. The nutritional quality of C3 plants (e.g. wheat, oats, rice)

1242-532: A lot of light to being dark after the ice has melted, they start absorbing more heat . Local black carbon deposits on snow and ice also contribute to Arctic warming. Arctic surface temperatures are increasing between three and four times faster than in the rest of the world. Melting of ice sheets near the poles weakens both the Atlantic and the Antarctic limb of thermohaline circulation , which further changes

1380-412: A marked increase in temperature. Ongoing changes in climate have had no precedent for several thousand years. Multiple independent datasets all show worldwide increases in surface temperature, at a rate of around 0.2 °C per decade. The 2014–2023 decade warmed to an average 1.19 °C [1.06–1.30 °C] compared to the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900). Not every single year was warmer than

1518-439: A matter of days, devastating farmers and costing billions in agricultural losses. Change in weather patterns and temperature due to climate change leads to dispersal of plant pathogens as hosts migrate to areas with more favourable conditions. This increases crop losses due to diseases. For instance, aphids act as vectors for many potato viruses and will be able to spread further due to increased temperatures. According to

SECTION 10

#1733094060278

1656-519: A necessity for livestock production in the Caribbean. At 2.5 °C (4.5 °F), only layer hens would avoid daily exposure to "very severe" heat stress during the winter months. Both droughts and floods contribute to decreases in crop yields . On average, climate change increases the overall amount of water contained in the atmosphere by 7% per every 1 °C (1.8 °F), thus increasing precipitation . However, this increase in precipitation

1794-488: A paper which used an ensemble of 21 climate models estimated that under the most intense climate change scenario used at the time, RCP8.5 , global yields of these four crops would decline by between 3–12% around 2050 and by 11–25% by the year 2100. The losses were concentrated in what are currently the major agricultural producers and exporters. For instance, even by 2050, some agricultural areas of Australia , Brazil , South Africa , Southeast China , Southern Europe and

1932-408: A physical climate model. These models simulate how population, economic growth , and energy use affect—and interact with—the physical climate. With this information, these models can produce scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions. This is then used as input for physical climate models and carbon cycle models to predict how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases might change. Depending on

2070-477: A result of stomatal closing. The CO 2 fertilization effect or carbon fertilization effect causes an increased rate of photosynthesis while limiting leaf transpiration in plants. Both processes result from increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). The carbon fertilization effect varies depending on plant species, air and soil temperature, and availability of water and nutrients. Net primary productivity (NPP) might positively respond to

2208-457: A result of climate change. Global sea level is rising as a consequence of thermal expansion and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets . Sea level rise has increased over time, reaching 4.8 cm per decade between 2014 and 2023. Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects 32–62 cm of sea level rise under a low emission scenario, 44–76 cm under an intermediate one and 65–101 cm under

2346-436: A result, higher CO 2 not only reduce a plant's micronutrients, but also the quality of its macronutrient combination. Anthropogenic methane emissions have a significant contribution to warming due to the high global warming potential of methane. At the same time, methane also acts as a precursor to surface ozone , which is a significant air pollutant . Its effects include lowering physiological functions and therefore

2484-474: A result. The World Health Organization calls climate change one of the biggest threats to global health in the 21st century. Societies and ecosystems will experience more severe risks without action to limit warming . Adapting to climate change through efforts like flood control measures or drought-resistant crops partially reduces climate change risks, although some limits to adaptation have already been reached. Poorer communities are responsible for

2622-417: A small share of global emissions , yet have the least ability to adapt and are most vulnerable to climate change . Many climate change impacts have been observed in the first decades of the 21st century, with 2023 the warmest on record at +1.48 °C (2.66 °F) since regular tracking began in 1850. Additional warming will increase these impacts and can trigger tipping points , such as melting all of

2760-538: A very high emission scenario. Marine ice sheet instability processes in Antarctica may add substantially to these values, including the possibility of a 2-meter sea level rise by 2100 under high emissions. Climate change has led to decades of shrinking and thinning of the Arctic sea ice . While ice-free summers are expected to be rare at 1.5 °C degrees of warming, they are set to occur once every three to ten years at

2898-519: A warming level of 2 °C. Higher atmospheric CO 2 concentrations cause more CO 2 to dissolve in the oceans, which is making them more acidic . Because oxygen is less soluble in warmer water, its concentrations in the ocean are decreasing , and dead zones are expanding. Greater degrees of global warming increase the risk of passing through ' tipping points '—thresholds beyond which certain major impacts can no longer be avoided even if temperatures return to their previous state. For instance,

SECTION 20

#1733094060278

3036-444: Is water scarcity , which results in crop failures and the loss of pasture grazing land for livestock, exacerbating pre-existing poverty in developing countries and leading to malnutrition and potentially famine . Irrigation of crops is able to reduce or even remove the effects on yields of lower rainfall and higher temperatures – through localized cooling.  However, using water resources for irrigation has downsides and

3174-432: Is also a C4 carbon fixation plant, meaning that it experiences little benefit from the increased CO 2 levels. When the results from modelling experiments comparing the combined output of latest earth system models and dedicated agricultural crop models were published in 2021, the most notable new finding was the substantial reduction in projected global yields of maize. While the previous generation suggested that under

3312-584: Is also expected to elevate food safety issues and food spoilage caused by mycotoxin -producing fungi, and bacteria such as Salmonella . Climate change would cause an increase in rainfall in some areas, which would lead to an increase of atmospheric humidity and the duration of the wet seasons . Combined with higher temperatures, these conditions could favour the development of fungal diseases, such as late blight , or bacterial infections such as Ralstonia solanacearum , which may also be able to spread more easily through flash flooding . Climate change has

3450-557: Is an estimated total sea level rise of 2.3 metres per degree Celsius (4.2 ft/°F) after 2000 years. Oceanic CO 2 uptake is slow enough that ocean acidification will also continue for hundreds to thousands of years. Deep oceans (below 2,000 metres (6,600 ft)) are also already committed to losing over 10% of their dissolved oxygen by the warming which occurred to date. Further, the West Antarctic ice sheet appears committed to practically irreversible melting, which would increase

3588-711: Is determined by modelling the carbon cycle and climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases. According to UNEP , global warming can be kept below 1.5 °C with a 50% chance if emissions after 2023 do not exceed 200 gigatonnes of CO 2 . This corresponds to around 4 years of current emissions. To stay under 2.0 °C, the carbon budget is 900 gigatonnes of CO 2 , or 16 years of current emissions. The climate system experiences various cycles on its own which can last for years, decades or even centuries. For example, El Niño events cause short-term spikes in surface temperature while La Niña events cause short term cooling. Their relative frequency can affect global temperature trends on

3726-464: Is especially at risk: lower levels of protein as well as minerals (for example zinc and iron) are expected. Food crops could see a reduction of protein , iron and zinc content in common food crops of 3 to 17%. This is the projected result of food grown under the expected atmospheric carbon-dioxide levels of 2050. Using data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization as well as other public sources,

3864-533: Is expected that these highly invasive crop pests will spread to other parts of the planet since they have a high capacity to adapt to different environments. A changing climate may favour the more biologically diverse weeds over the monocrops on many farms. Characteristics of weeds such as their genetic diversity , cross-breeding ability, and fast-growth rates put them at an advantage in changing climates as these characteristics allow them to adapt readily in comparison to most farm's uniform crops, and give them

4002-478: Is expected to decrease in the second half of the century, and with greater effect in tropical than temperate regions. There is a large number of agricultural crops , but not all of them are equally important. Most climate change assessments focus on "four major crops" – maize (corn), rice , wheat and soybeans – which are consumed directly and indirectly, as animal feed (the main purpose of soybeans). The three cereals are collectively responsible for half of

4140-714: Is expected to drive some improvements on its own. Further, agricultural expansion has slowed down in the recent years, but this trend is widely expected to reverse in the future in order to maintain the global food supply under all but the most optimistic climate change scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement . In 2007, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report had suggested that global production potential would increase up to around 3 °C (5.4 °F) of globally averaged warming, as productivity increases for cereals in high latitudes would outweigh decreases in

4278-403: Is expected to increase overall thermal comfort for humans living in the colder regions of the world, livestock in those places would also benefit from warmer winters. Across the entire world, however, increasing summertime temperatures as well as more frequent and intense heatwaves will have clearly negative effects, substantially elevating the risk of livestock suffering from heat stress . Under

Nymark - Misplaced Pages Continue

4416-408: Is expensive. Further, some sources of irrigation water may become less reliable. This includes irrigation driven by water runoff from glaciers during the summer, as there has already been an observed retreat of glaciers since 1850 , and it is expected to continue, depleting the glacial ice and reducing or outright eliminating runoff. In Asia, global warming of 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) will reduce

4554-399: Is independent of where greenhouse gases are emitted, because the gases persist long enough to diffuse across the planet. Since the pre-industrial period, the average surface temperature over land regions has increased almost twice as fast as the global average surface temperature. This is because oceans lose more heat by evaporation and oceans can store a lot of heat . The thermal energy in

4692-438: Is not distributed evenly in space ( atmospheric circulation patterns already cause different areas to receive different amounts of rainfall) or time: heavy rainfall, with the potential to cause floods, becomes more frequent. This means that under the probable mid-range climate change scenario , SSP2-4.5, precipitation events globally will become larger by 11.5%, yet the time between them will increase by an average of 5.1%. Under

4830-457: Is often considered unrealistic, and a less intense RCP4.5 scenario (which still leads to nearly 3 °C (5.4 °F) by century's end, far in excess of the Paris Agreement goals) is now usually considered a better match for the current trajectory. Out of the four crops, maize is considered the most vulnerable to warming, with one meta-analysis concluding that every 1 °C (1.8 °F) of global warming reduces maize yields by 7.4%. It

4968-555: Is often difficult. Exceptions include West Africa , where the climate-induced intensification of extreme weather was found to have already decreased millet yields by 10–20%, and sorghum yields 5–15%. Similarly, it was found that climate change had intensified drought conditions in Southern Africa in 2007, which elevated food prices and caused "acute food insecurity" in the country of Lesotho . Agriculture in Southern Africa

5106-450: Is primarily attributed to sulfate aerosols produced by the combustion of fossil fuels with heavy sulfur concentrations like coal and bunker fuel . Smaller contributions come from black carbon (from combustion of fossil fuels and biomass), and from dust. Globally, aerosols have been declining since 1990 due to pollution controls, meaning that they no longer mask greenhouse gas warming as much. Aerosols also have indirect effects on

5244-444: Is radiating into space. Warming reduces average snow cover and forces the retreat of glaciers . At the same time, warming also causes greater evaporation from the oceans , leading to more atmospheric humidity , more and heavier precipitation . Plants are flowering earlier in spring, and thousands of animal species have been permanently moving to cooler areas. Different regions of the world warm at different rates . The pattern

5382-516: Is shaped by feedbacks, which either amplify or dampen the change. Self-reinforcing or positive feedbacks increase the response, while balancing or negative feedbacks reduce it. The main reinforcing feedbacks are the water-vapour feedback , the ice–albedo feedback , and the net effect of clouds. The primary balancing mechanism is radiative cooling , as Earth's surface gives off more heat to space in response to rising temperature. In addition to temperature feedbacks, there are feedbacks in

5520-414: Is that temperatures will increase and precipitation will decrease in arid and semi-arid regions ( Middle East , Africa , Australia , Southwest United States , and Southern Europe ). In addition, crop yields in tropical regions will be negatively affected by the projected moderate increase in temperature (1–2 °C) expected to occur during the first half of the century. During the second half of

5658-407: Is the major reason why different climate models project different magnitudes of warming for a given amount of emissions. A climate model is a representation of the physical, chemical and biological processes that affect the climate system. Models include natural processes like changes in the Earth's orbit, historical changes in the Sun's activity, and volcanic forcing. Models are used to estimate

Nymark - Misplaced Pages Continue

5796-417: Is unclear. A related phenomenon driven by climate change is woody plant encroachment , affecting up to 500 million hectares globally. Climate change has contributed to the expansion of drier climate zones, such as the expansion of deserts in the subtropics . The size and speed of global warming is making abrupt changes in ecosystems more likely. Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in

5934-455: The 2020–2023 Horn of Africa drought has been primarily attributed to the great increase in evotranspiration exacerbating the effect of persistent low rainfall, which would have been more manageable in the cooler preindustrial climate. In total, this means that droughts have been occurring more frequently on average because of climate change. Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East, most of

6072-507: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and irreversible damage to key ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest and coral reefs can unfold in a matter of decades. The long-term effects of climate change on oceans include further ice melt, ocean warming , sea level rise, ocean acidification and ocean deoxygenation. The timescale of long-term impacts are centuries to millennia due to CO 2 's long atmospheric lifetime. The result

6210-657: The Earth's energy budget . Sulfate aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets. They also reduce the growth of raindrops , which makes clouds more reflective to incoming sunlight. Indirect effects of aerosols are the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing . While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight, black carbon in soot that falls on snow or ice can contribute to global warming. Not only does this increase

6348-504: The El Nino weather conditions, while 2003 European heat wave led to 13 billion euros in uninsured agriculture losses. Climate change is known to increase the frequency and severity of heatwaves , and to make precipitation less predictable and more prone to extremes, but since climate change attribution is still a relatively new field, connecting specific weather events and the shortfalls they cause to climate change over natural variability

6486-621: The Green Revolution had ensured the growth of overall crop production per land area of 250% to 300% since the 1960, with around 44% attributed to newer crop varieties alone, it is believed this growth would have been even greater without the counteracting role of climate change on major crop yields over the same period. Between 1961 and 2021, global agricultural productivity could have been 21% greater than it actually was, if it did not have to contend with climate change. Such shortfalls would have affected food security of vulnerable populations

6624-568: The Greenland ice sheet is already melting, but if global warming reaches levels between 1.7 °C and 2.3 °C, its melting will continue until it fully disappears. If the warming is later reduced to 1.5 °C or less, it will still lose a lot more ice than if the warming was never allowed to reach the threshold in the first place. While the ice sheets would melt over millennia, other tipping points would occur faster and give societies less time to respond. The collapse of major ocean currents like

6762-835: The Greenland ice sheet . Under the 2015 Paris Agreement , nations collectively agreed to keep warming "well under 2 °C". However, with pledges made under the Agreement, global warming would still reach about 2.8 °C (5.0 °F) by the end of the century. Limiting warming to 1.5 °C would require halving emissions by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Fossil fuel use can be phased out by conserving energy and switching to energy sources that do not produce significant carbon pollution. These energy sources include wind , solar , hydro , and nuclear power . Cleanly generated electricity can replace fossil fuels for powering transportation , heating buildings , and running industrial processes. Carbon can also be removed from

6900-554: The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report from 2022, there is high confidence that in and of itself, climate change to date has left primarily negative effects on both crop yields and quality of produce, although there has been some regional variation: more negative effects have been observed for some crops in low-latitudes (maize and wheat), while positive effects of climate change have been observed in some crops in high-latitudes (maize, wheat, and sugar beets ). I.e. during

7038-626: The Industrial Revolution , naturally-occurring amounts of greenhouse gases caused the air near the surface to be about 33 °C warmer than it would have been in their absence. Human activity since the Industrial Revolution, mainly extracting and burning fossil fuels ( coal , oil , and natural gas ), has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In 2022, the concentrations of CO 2 and methane had increased by about 50% and 164%, respectively, since 1750. These CO 2 levels are higher than they have been at any time during

SECTION 50

#1733094060278

7176-467: The Mediterranean became more affected by drought . Similarly, the severity of heatwave and drought effects on European crop production was found to have tripled over a 50-year period – from losses of 2.2% during 1964–1990 to losses of 7.3% in 1991–2015. In the summer of 2018, heat waves probably linked to climate change greatly reduced average yield in many parts of the world, especially Europe. During

7314-832: The Mountain Pine Beetle epidemic in British Columbia , Canada had killed millions of pine trees, partially because the winters were not cold enough to slow or kill the growing beetle larvae. Likewise, potato tuber moth and Colorado potato beetle are predicted to spread into areas currently too cold for them. Further, effects of climate change on the water cycle often mean that both wet seasons and drought seasons will become more intense. Some insect species will breed more rapidly because they are better able to take advantage of such changes in conditions. This includes certain insect pests, such as aphids and whiteflies : similarly, locust swarms could also cause more damage as

7452-488: The United States would suffer production losses of mostly maize and soybeans exceeding 25%. A similar finding - that some major "breadbaskets" would begin to see unequivocal effects of climate change, both positive and negative, before the year 2040 - had been established in another study from the same year. Since it represents the worst-case scenario of continually increasing emissions with no efforts to reduce them, RCP8.5

7590-509: The World Economic Forum , 14.5 million more deaths are expected due to climate change by 2050. 30% of the global population currently live in areas where extreme heat and humidity are already associated with excess deaths. By 2100, 50% to 75% of the global population would live in such areas. While total crop yields have been increasing in the past 50 years due to agricultural improvements, climate change has already decreased

7728-414: The carbon cycle . While plants on land and in the ocean absorb most excess emissions of CO 2 every year, that CO 2 is returned to the atmosphere when biological matter is digested, burns, or decays. Land-surface carbon sink processes, such as carbon fixation in the soil and photosynthesis, remove about 29% of annual global CO 2 emissions. The ocean has absorbed 20 to 30% of emitted CO 2 over

7866-529: The climate change scenario of highest emissions and greatest warming, SSP5-8.5 , "cattle,sheep, goats, pigs and poultry in the low latitudes will face 72–136 additional days per year of extreme stress from high heat and humidity". In Jamaica , considered representative of the Caribbean region, all livestock animals besides layer hens are already exposed to "very severe" heat stress in the present climate, with pigs being exposed to it at least once per day during

8004-402: The climate system . Solar irradiance has been measured directly by satellites , and indirect measurements are available from the early 1600s onwards. Since 1880, there has been no upward trend in the amount of the Sun's energy reaching the Earth, in contrast to the warming of the lower atmosphere (the troposphere ). The upper atmosphere (the stratosphere ) would also be warming if the Sun

8142-451: The ecosystem processes associated with the CO 2 fertilization effect remain uncertain and therefore are challenging to model. A 1993 review of scientific greenhouse studies found that a doubling of CO 2 concentration would stimulate the growth of 156 different plant species by an average of 37%. Response varied significantly by species, with some showing much greater gains and a few showing

8280-971: The extinction of many species. The oceans have heated more slowly than the land, but plants and animals in the ocean have migrated towards the colder poles faster than species on land. Just as on land, heat waves in the ocean occur more frequently due to climate change, harming a wide range of organisms such as corals, kelp , and seabirds . Ocean acidification makes it harder for marine calcifying organisms such as mussels , barnacles and corals to produce shells and skeletons ; and heatwaves have bleached coral reefs . Harmful algal blooms enhanced by climate change and eutrophication lower oxygen levels, disrupt food webs and cause great loss of marine life. Coastal ecosystems are under particular stress. Almost half of global wetlands have disappeared due to climate change and other human impacts. Plants have come under increased stress from damage by insects. The effects of climate change are impacting humans everywhere in

8418-412: The metabolic rate and number of breeding cycles of insect populations. Historically, cold temperatures at night and in the winter months would kill off insects , bacteria and fungi . The warmer, wetter winters are promoting fungal plant diseases like wheat rusts ( stripe and brown/leaf ) and soybean rust to travel northward. The increasing incidence of flooding and heavy rains also promotes

SECTION 60

#1733094060278

8556-432: The socioeconomic scenario and the mitigation scenario, models produce atmospheric CO 2 concentrations that range widely between 380 and 1400 ppm. The environmental effects of climate change are broad and far-reaching, affecting oceans , ice, and weather. Changes may occur gradually or rapidly. Evidence for these effects comes from studying climate change in the past, from modelling, and from modern observations. Since

8694-412: The soil microbe population size to dramatically increase 40–150%. Warmer conditions would favour growth of certain bacteria species, shifting the bacterial community composition. Elevated carbon dioxide would increase the growth rates of plants and soil microbes, slowing the soil carbon cycle and favouring oligotrophs , which are slower-growing and more resource efficient than copiotrophs . A rise in

8832-405: The 18th century and 1970 there was little net warming, as the warming impact of greenhouse gas emissions was offset by cooling from sulfur dioxide emissions. Sulfur dioxide causes acid rain , but it also produces sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere, which reflect sunlight and cause global dimming . After 1970, the increasing accumulation of greenhouse gases and controls on sulfur pollution led to

8970-599: The 1950s, droughts and heat waves have appeared simultaneously with increasing frequency. Extremely wet or dry events within the monsoon period have increased in India and East Asia. Monsoonal precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere has increased since 1980. The rainfall rate and intensity of hurricanes and typhoons is likely increasing , and the geographic range likely expanding poleward in response to climate warming. Frequency of tropical cyclones has not increased as

9108-500: The 1980s, the terms global warming and climate change became more common, often being used interchangeably. Scientifically, global warming refers only to increased surface warming, while climate change describes both global warming and its effects on Earth's climate system , such as precipitation changes. Climate change can also be used more broadly to include changes to the climate that have happened throughout Earth's history. Global warming —used as early as 1975 —became

9246-429: The 5 summer and early autumn months, while ruminants and broilers only avoid daily exposure to very severe heat stress during the winter. it has been projected that even at 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) of global warming, "very severe" heat stress would become a daily event for ruminants and broilers . By 2 °C (3.6 °F), it would be felt for a longer duration, and extensive cooling systems would likely become

9384-465: The Americas, Australia, South and Southeast Asia are the parts of the globe where droughts are expected to become more frequent and intense in spite of the global increase in precipitation. Droughts disturb terrestrial precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture , and these effects can be aggravated by population growth and urban expansion spurring on increased demand for water. The ultimate outcome

9522-440: The Arctic is forcing many species to relocate or become extinct . Even if efforts to minimize future warming are successful, some effects will continue for centuries. These include ocean heating , ocean acidification and sea level rise . Climate change threatens people with increased flooding , extreme heat, increased food and water scarcity, more disease, and economic loss . Human migration and conflict can also be

9660-435: The Arctic is another major feedback, this reduces the reflectivity of the Earth's surface in the region and accelerates Arctic warming . This additional warming also contributes to permafrost thawing, which releases methane and CO 2 into the atmosphere. Around half of human-caused CO 2 emissions have been absorbed by land plants and by the oceans. This fraction is not static and if future CO 2 emissions decrease,

9798-542: The CO 2 fertilization effect (6.5±1.0%). The warmer atmospheric temperatures observed over the past decades are expected to lead to a more vigorous hydrological cycle, including more extreme rainfall events. Erosion and soil degradation is more likely to occur. Soil fertility would also be affected by global warming. Increased erosion in agricultural landscapes from anthropogenic factors can occur with losses of up to 22% of soil carbon in 50 years. Climate change will also cause soils to warm. In turn, this could cause

9936-408: The CO 2 levels expected in the second half of the 21st century will likely reduce the levels of zinc, iron, and protein in wheat, rice, peas, and soybeans. Some two billion people live in countries where citizens receive more than 60 per cent of their zinc or iron from these types of crops. Deficiencies of these nutrients already cause an estimated loss of 63 million life-years annually. Alongside

10074-497: The CO 2 released by the chemical reactions for making cement , steel , aluminum , and fertilizer . Methane emissions come from livestock , manure, rice cultivation , landfills, wastewater, and coal mining , as well as oil and gas extraction . Nitrous oxide emissions largely come from the microbial decomposition of fertilizer . While methane only lasts in the atmosphere for an average of 12 years, CO 2 lasts much longer. The Earth's surface absorbs CO 2 as part of

10212-604: The Earth will be able to absorb up to around 70%. If they increase substantially, it'll still absorb more carbon than now, but the overall fraction will decrease to below 40%. This is because climate change increases droughts and heat waves that eventually inhibit plant growth on land, and soils will release more carbon from dead plants when they are warmer . The rate at which oceans absorb atmospheric carbon will be lowered as they become more acidic and experience changes in thermohaline circulation and phytoplankton distribution. Uncertainty over feedbacks, particularly cloud cover,

10350-441: The absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea-level rise. Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce global warming by 0.2 °C by 2050. The effect of decreasing sulfur content of fuel oil for ships since 2020 is estimated to cause an additional 0.05 °C increase in global mean temperature by 2050. As the Sun is the Earth's primary energy source, changes in incoming sunlight directly affect

10488-603: The activity of pollinators , threatening their reproductive success. In the longer term, however, they would result in longer growing seasons . For example, a 2014 study found that maize yields in the Heilongjiang region of China increased by between 7 and 17% per decade as a result of rising temperatures. On the other hand, a year 2017 meta-analysis comparing data from four different methods of estimating effect of warming (two types of climate model, statistical regressions and field experiments where land around certain crops

10626-460: The agricultural sector of Belgium, one of the countries hardest hit by the floods, including long-term effects like soil erosion . In China , 2023 research found that extreme rainfall had cost the country about 8% of its rice output over the two preceding decades. This was considered comparable to losses caused by extreme heat over this period. Changes in temperature and weather patterns will alter areas suitable for farming. The current prediction

10764-411: The atmosphere , for instance by increasing forest cover and farming with methods that capture carbon in soil . Before the 1980s it was unclear whether the warming effect of increased greenhouse gases was stronger than the cooling effect of airborne particulates in air pollution . Scientists used the term inadvertent climate modification to refer to human impacts on the climate at this time. In

10902-452: The atmosphere. volcanic CO 2 emissions are more persistent, but they are equivalent to less than 1% of current human-caused CO 2 emissions. Volcanic activity still represents the single largest natural impact (forcing) on temperature in the industrial era. Yet, like the other natural forcings, it has had negligible impacts on global temperature trends since the Industrial Revolution. The climate system's response to an initial forcing

11040-881: The authors analysed 225 different staple foods, such as wheat , rice , maize , vegetables , roots and fruits . The effect of increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide on the nutritional quality of plants is not limited only to the above-mentioned crop categories and nutrients. A 2014 meta-analysis has shown that crops and wild plants exposed to elevated carbon dioxide levels at various latitudes have lower density of several minerals such as magnesium, iron, zinc, and potassium. Studies using Free-Air Concentration Enrichment have also shown that increases in CO 2 lead to decreased concentrations of micronutrients in crop and non-crop plants with negative consequences for human nutrition, including decreased B vitamins in rice. This may have knock-on effects on other parts of ecosystems as herbivores will need to eat more food to gain

11178-454: The biggest threats to global health in the 21st century. Scientists have warned about the irreversible harms it poses. Extreme weather events affect public health, and food and water security . Temperature extremes lead to increased illness and death. Climate change increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. It can affect transmission of infectious diseases , such as dengue fever and malaria . According to

11316-416: The capability of altering pathogen and host interactions, specifically the rates of pathogen infection and the resistance of the host plant. Also affected by plant disease are the economic costs associated with growing different plants that might yield less profit as well as treating and managing already diseased crops. For instance, soybean rust is a vicious plant pathogen that can kill off entire fields in

11454-540: The carbon cycle, such as the fertilizing effect of CO 2 on plant growth. Feedbacks are expected to trend in a positive direction as greenhouse gas emissions continue, raising climate sensitivity. These feedback processes alter the pace of global warming. For instance, warmer air can hold more moisture in the form of water vapour , which is itself a potent greenhouse gas. Warmer air can also make clouds higher and thinner, and therefore more insulating, increasing climate warming. The reduction of snow cover and sea ice in

11592-542: The carbon fertilization effect. Although, evidence shows that enhanced rates of photosynthesis in plants due to CO 2 fertilization do not directly enhance all plant growth, and thus carbon storage. The carbon fertilization effect has been reported to be the cause of 44% of gross primary productivity (GPP) increase since the 2000s. Earth System Models , Land System Models and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models are used to investigate and interpret vegetation trends related to increasing levels of atmospheric CO 2 . However,

11730-555: The century, further warming is projected to decrease crop yields in all regions including Canada and the Northern United States . Many staple crops are extremely sensitive to heat and when temperatures rise over 36 °C (97 °F), soybean seedlings are killed and corn pollen loses its vitality. Higher winter temperatures and more frost-free days in some regions can currently be disruptive, as they can cause phenological mismatch between flowering time of plants and

11868-543: The climate cycled through ice ages . One of the hotter periods was the Last Interglacial , around 125,000 years ago, where temperatures were between 0.5 °C and 1.5 °C warmer than before the start of global warming. This period saw sea levels 5 to 10 metres higher than today. The most recent glacial maximum 20,000 years ago was some 5–7 °C colder. This period has sea levels that were over 125 metres (410 ft) lower than today. Temperatures stabilized in

12006-514: The concentration of saltwater exceeds 2–3%, the well becomes unusable. Notably, areas along an estimated 15% of the US coastline already have the majority of local groundwater below the sea level. Climate change may increase the amount of arable land by reducing the amount of frozen land. A 2005 study reports that temperature in Siberia has increased three-degree Celsius in average since 1960 (much more than

12144-408: The crops. Furthermore, CO 2 fertilization has little effect on C4 crops like maize . On the coasts, some agricultural land is expected to be lost to sea level rise , while melting glaciers could result in less irrigation water being available. On the other hand, more arable land may become available as frozen land thaws. Other effects include erosion and changes in soil fertility and

12282-668: The current interglacial period beginning 11,700 years ago . This period also saw the start of agriculture. Historical patterns of warming and cooling, like the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age , did not occur at the same time across different regions. Temperatures may have reached as high as those of the late 20th century in a limited set of regions. Climate information for that period comes from climate proxies , such as trees and ice cores . Around 1850 thermometer records began to provide global coverage. Between

12420-403: The degree of warming future emissions will cause when accounting for the strength of climate feedbacks . Models also predict the circulation of the oceans, the annual cycle of the seasons, and the flows of carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere. The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past climates. Past models have underestimated

12558-427: The destroyed trees release CO 2 , and are not replaced by new trees, removing that carbon sink . Between 2001 and 2018, 27% of deforestation was from permanent clearing to enable agricultural expansion for crops and livestock. Another 24% has been lost to temporary clearing under the shifting cultivation agricultural systems. 26% was due to logging for wood and derived products, and wildfires have accounted for

12696-401: The distribution of heat and precipitation around the globe. The World Meteorological Organization estimates there is an 80% chance that global temperatures will exceed 1.5 °C warming for at least one year between 2024 and 2028. The chance of the 5-year average being above 1.5 °C is almost half. The IPCC expects the 20-year average global temperature to exceed +1.5 °C in

12834-444: The dominant direct influence on temperature from land use change. Thus, land use change to date is estimated to have a slight cooling effect. Air pollution, in the form of aerosols, affects the climate on a large scale. Aerosols scatter and absorb solar radiation. From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface was observed. This phenomenon is popularly known as global dimming , and

12972-610: The early 2030s. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021) included projections that by 2100 global warming is very likely to reach 1.0–1.8 °C under a scenario with very low emissions of greenhouse gases , 2.1–3.5 °C under an intermediate emissions scenario , or 3.3–5.7 °C under a very high emissions scenario . The warming will continue past 2100 in the intermediate and high emission scenarios, with future projections of global surface temperatures by year 2300 being similar to millions of years ago. The remaining carbon budget for staying beneath certain temperature increases

13110-1201: The emissions continue to increase for the rest of century, then over 9 million climate-related deaths would occur annually by 2100. Economic damages due to climate change may be severe and there is a chance of disastrous consequences. Severe impacts are expected in South-East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa , where most of the local inhabitants are dependent upon natural and agricultural resources. Heat stress can prevent outdoor labourers from working. If warming reaches 4 °C then labour capacity in those regions could be reduced by 30 to 50%. The World Bank estimates that between 2016 and 2030, climate change could drive over 120 million people into extreme poverty without adaptation. Effects of climate change on agriculture There are numerous effects of climate change on agriculture , many of which are making it harder for agricultural activities to provide global food security . Rising temperatures and changing weather patterns often result in lower crop yields due to water scarcity caused by drought , heat waves and flooding . These effects of climate change can also increase

13248-508: The end of the century. Vietnam for example relies heavily on its southern tip, where the Mekong Delta lies, for rice planting. A one-metre rise in sea level will cover several square kilometres of rice paddies in Vietnam. Besides simply flooding agricultural land, sea level rise can also cause saltwater intrusion into freshwater wells , particularly if they are already below sea level. Once

13386-430: The entire atmosphere—is ruled out because only the lower atmosphere has warmed. Atmospheric aerosols produce a smaller, cooling effect. Other drivers, such as changes in albedo , are less impactful. Greenhouse gases are transparent to sunlight , and thus allow it to pass through the atmosphere to heat the Earth's surface. The Earth radiates it as heat , and greenhouse gases absorb a portion of it. This absorption slows

13524-445: The foreseeable future. The future degree of soil erosion and groundwater depletion are further uncertainties. On the other hand, a range of improvements to agricultural yields, collectively known as the Green Revolution , has increased yields per unit of land area by between 250% and 300% since 1960. Some of that progress will likely continue. The scientific consensus is that global food security will change relatively little in

13662-541: The future (to 2100 and beyond) are rare. There is some concern about the effects on food security from more extreme weather events in future. Nevertheless, at this stage there is no expectation of a widespread global famine due to climate change within the 21st century. Agriculture is sensitive to weather, and major events like heatwaves or droughts or heavy rains (also known as low and high precipitation extremes) can cause substantial losses. For example, Australia 's farmers are very likely to suffer losses during

13800-592: The global climate system has grown with only brief pauses since at least 1970, and over 90% of this extra energy has been stored in the ocean . The rest has heated the atmosphere , melted ice, and warmed the continents. The Northern Hemisphere and the North Pole have warmed much faster than the South Pole and Southern Hemisphere . The Northern Hemisphere not only has much more land, but also more seasonal snow cover and sea ice . As these surfaces flip from reflecting

13938-410: The global harvest and this level is likely to rise as plants are at an ever-increasing risk of exposure to pests and pathogens . Research has shown that climate change may alter the developmental stages of plant pathogens that can affect crops. This includes several pathogens associated with potato blackleg disease (e.g. Dickeya ), as they grow and reproduce faster at higher temperatures. The warming

14076-456: The growth of various other plant pests and diseases. Climate change is expected to have a negative effect on many insects, greatly reducing their species distribution and thus increasing their risk of going extinct . Around 9% of agricultural production is dependent in some way on insect pollination , and some pollinator species are also adversely affected, with wild bumblebees known to be particularly vulnerable to recent warming. At

14214-411: The highest-emission scenario SSP5-8.5 , there will be an 18.5% increase in size of events and 9.6% increase in the duration between them. At the same time, water losses by plants through evotranspiration will increase almost everywhere due to higher temperatures. While the CO 2 fertilization effect also reduces such losses by plants, it depends on the area's climate which effect will dominate. As such,

14352-584: The ice mass of Asia's high mountains by about 29–43%,: Approximately 2.4 billion people live in the drainage basin of the Himalayan rivers: In India alone, the river Ganges provides water for drinking and farming for more than 500 million people. In the Indus River watershed, these mountain water resources contribute to up to 60% of irrigation outside of the monsoon season, and an additional 11% of total crop production. Since Effects of climate change on

14490-572: The last 14 million years. Concentrations of methane are far higher than they were over the last 800,000 years. Global human-caused greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 were equivalent to 59 billion tonnes of CO 2 . Of these emissions, 75% was CO 2 , 18% was methane , 4% was nitrous oxide, and 2% was fluorinated gases . CO 2 emissions primarily come from burning fossil fuels to provide energy for transport , manufacturing, heating , and electricity. Additional CO 2 emissions come from deforestation and industrial processes , which include

14628-436: The last two decades. CO 2 is only removed from the atmosphere for the long term when it is stored in the Earth's crust, which is a process that can take millions of years to complete. Around 30% of Earth's land area is largely unusable for humans ( glaciers , deserts , etc.), 26% is forests , 10% is shrubland and 34% is agricultural land . Deforestation is the main land use change contributor to global warming, as

14766-441: The last: internal climate variability processes can make any year 0.2 °C warmer or colder than the average. From 1998 to 2013, negative phases of two such processes, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) caused a short slower period of warming called the " global warming hiatus ". After the "hiatus", the opposite occurred, with years like 2023 exhibiting temperatures well above even

14904-652: The leading soccer clubs in the country, Brann, has its stadium in Nymark, and the area also has many other sports facilities (such as soccer fields, handball and basketball stadiums). 78°42′25″N 20°30′23″E  /  78.70689°N 20.50639°E  / 78.70689; 20.50639 This Svalbard location article is a stub . You can help Misplaced Pages by expanding it . Global warming Present-day climate change includes both global warming —the ongoing increase in global average temperature —and its wider effects on Earth's climate . Climate change in

15042-662: The length of growing seasons. Also, bacteria like Salmonella and fungi that produce mycotoxins grow faster as the climate warms. Their growth has negative effects on food safety , food loss and prices . There has been extensive research on the effects of climate change on individual crops, particularly on the four staple crops : corn (maize), rice , wheat and soybeans . These crops are responsible for around two-thirds of all calories consumed by humans (both directly and indirectly as animal feed). The research investigates important uncertainties, for example future population growth , which will increase global food demand for

15180-525: The low latitudes and global aggregate yields of rain-fed agriculture would increase by 5–20% in the first half of the 21st century. Warming exceeding this level would very likely see global declines in yields. Since then, subsequent reports had been more negative on the global production potential. The US National Research Council assessed the literature on the effects of climate change on crop yields in 2011, and provided central estimates for key crops. A meta-analysis in 2014 revealed consensus that yield

15318-608: The lower atmosphere. Carbon dioxide , the primary greenhouse gas driving global warming, has grown by about 50% and is at levels not seen for millions of years. Climate change has an increasingly large impact on the environment . Deserts are expanding , while heat waves and wildfires are becoming more common. Amplified warming in the Arctic has contributed to thawing permafrost , retreat of glaciers and sea ice decline . Higher temperatures are also causing more intense storms , droughts, and other weather extremes . Rapid environmental change in mountains , coral reefs , and

15456-512: The month of August, more crop failures resulted in a rise in global food prices . On the other hand, floods, often linked to climate change, have also had notable adverse effects on agriculture in the recent years. In May 2019, floods shortened corn planting season in the Midwestern United States , lowering the projected yield from 15 billion bushels to 14.2. During the 2021 European floods , estimates pointed to severe damage to

15594-413: The more popular term after NASA climate scientist James Hansen used it in his 1988 testimony in the U.S. Senate . Since the 2000s, climate change has increased usage. Various scientists, politicians and media may use the terms climate crisis or climate emergency to talk about climate change, and may use the term global heating instead of global warming . Over the last few million years

15732-413: The most: a study in 2019 showed that climate change has already increased the risk of food insecurity in many food insecure countries. Even in developed countries such as Australia , extreme weather associated with climate change has been found to cause a wide range of cascading spillovers through supply chain disruption, in addition to its primary effect on fruit, vegetable, and livestock sectors and

15870-531: The near-term. 720 million to 811 million people were undernourished in 2021, with around 200,000 people being at a catastrophic level of food insecurity. Climate change is expected to add an additional 8 to 80 million people who are at risk of hunger by 2050. The estimated range depends on the intensity of future warming and the effectiveness of adaptation measures . Agricultural productivity growth will likely have improved food security for hundreds of millions of people by then. Predictions that reach further into

16008-400: The period 1981 to 2008, global warming has had negative effects on wheat yield in especially tropical regions, with decreases in average global yields by 5.5%.   A study in 2019 tracked ~20,000 political units globally for 10 crops ( maize , rice , wheat , soybean , barley , cassava , oil palm , rapeseed , sorghum and sugarcane ), providing more detail on the spatial resolution and

16146-619: The rate at which heat escapes into space, trapping heat near the Earth's surface and warming it over time. While water vapour (≈50%) and clouds (≈25%) are the biggest contributors to the greenhouse effect, they primarily change as a function of temperature and are therefore mostly considered to be feedbacks that change climate sensitivity . On the other hand, concentrations of gases such as CO 2 (≈20%), tropospheric ozone , CFCs and nitrous oxide are added or removed independently from temperature, and are therefore considered to be external forcings that change global temperatures. Before

16284-522: The rate of Arctic shrinkage and underestimated the rate of precipitation increase. Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but more recent models agree well with observations. The 2017 United States-published National Climate Assessment notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes". Additionally, climate models may be unable to adequately predict short-term regional climatic shifts. A subset of climate models add societal factors to

16422-613: The rate of yield growth . Fisheries have been negatively affected in multiple regions. While agricultural productivity has been positively affected in some high latitude areas, mid- and low-latitude areas have been negatively affected. According to the World Economic Forum, an increase in drought in certain regions could cause 3.2 million deaths from malnutrition by 2050 and stunting in children. With 2 °C warming, global livestock headcounts could decline by 7–10% by 2050, as less animal feed will be available. If

16560-405: The recent average. This is why the temperature change is defined in terms of a 20-year average, which reduces the noise of hot and cold years and decadal climate patterns, and detects the long-term signal. A wide range of other observations reinforce the evidence of warming. The upper atmosphere is cooling, because greenhouse gases are trapping heat near the Earth's surface, and so less heat

16698-411: The release of chemical compounds that influence clouds, and by changing wind patterns. In tropic and temperate areas the net effect is to produce significant warming, and forest restoration can make local temperatures cooler. At latitudes closer to the poles, there is a cooling effect as forest is replaced by snow-covered (and more reflective) plains. Globally, these increases in surface albedo have been

16836-476: The remaining 23%. Some forests have not been fully cleared, but were already degraded by these impacts. Restoring these forests also recovers their potential as a carbon sink. Local vegetation cover impacts how much of the sunlight gets reflected back into space ( albedo ), and how much heat is lost by evaporation . For instance, the change from a dark forest to grassland makes the surface lighter, causing it to reflect more sunlight. Deforestation can also modify

16974-609: The rest of the world). However, reports about the effect of global warming on Russian agriculture indicate conflicting probable effects: while they expect a northward extension of farmable lands, they also warn of possible productivity losses and increased risk of drought. The Arctic region is expected to benefit from increased opportunities for agriculture and forestry . Climate change will alter pest , plant disease and weed distributions, with potential to reduce crop yields, including of staple crops like wheat , soybeans , and corn (maize). Warmer temperatures can increase

17112-412: The result. A notable example was the 2019–2022 locust infestation focused on East Africa , considered the worst of its kind in many decades. The fall armyworm , Spodoptera frugiperda , is a highly invasive plant pest, which can cause have massive damage to crops, especially maize. In the recent years, it has spread to countries in sub-Saharan Africa , and this spread is linked to climate change. It

17250-410: The risk of several regions suffering simultaneous crop failures . Currently this risk is regarded as rare but if these simultaneous crop failures did happen they would have significant consequences for the global food supply. Many pests and plant diseases are also expected to either become more prevalent or to spread to new regions. The world's livestock are also expected to be affected by many of

17388-413: The rural communities reliant on them. Between 1961 and 1985, cereal production more than doubled in developing nations , largely due to the development of irrigation, fertilizer, and seed varieties. Even in the absence of further scientific/technological developments, many of the existing advancements have not been evenly distributed, and their spread from the developed world to the developing world

17526-401: The same amount of protein. Empirical evidence shows that increasing levels of CO 2 result in lower concentrations of many minerals in plant tissues. Doubling CO 2 levels results in an 8% decline, on average, in the concentration of minerals. Declines in magnesium, calcium, potassium, iron, zinc and other minerals in crops can worsen the quality of human nutrition. Researchers report that

17664-453: The same issues, from greater heat stress to animal feed shortfalls and the spread of parasites and vector-borne diseases . The increased atmospheric CO 2 level from human activities (mainly burning of fossil fuels ) causes a CO 2 fertilization effect . This effect offsets a small portion of the detrimental effects of climate change on agriculture. However, it comes at the expense of lower levels of essential micronutrients in

17802-443: The same time, insects are the most diverse animal taxa, and some species will benefit from the changes, including notable agricultural pests and disease vectors . Insects that previously had only two breeding cycles per year could gain an additional cycle if warm growing seasons extend, causing a population boom. Temperate places and higher latitudes are more likely to experience a dramatic change in insect populations: for instance,

17940-424: The sea level would result in an agricultural land loss , in particular in areas such as South East Asia . Erosion , submergence of shorelines , salinity of the water table due to the increased sea levels, could mainly affect agriculture through inundation of low-lying lands . Low-lying areas such as Bangladesh , India and Vietnam will experience major loss of rice crop if sea levels rise as expected by

18078-583: The sea levels by at least 3.3 m (10 ft 10 in) over approximately 2000 years. Recent warming has driven many terrestrial and freshwater species poleward and towards higher altitudes . For instance, the range of hundreds of North American birds has shifted northward at an average rate of 1.5 km/year over the past 55 years. Higher atmospheric CO 2 levels and an extended growing season have resulted in global greening. However, heatwaves and drought have reduced ecosystem productivity in some regions. The future balance of these opposing effects

18216-406: The total human calorie intake, and together with soybeans, they account for two thirds. Different methods have been used to project future yields of these crops, and by 2019, the consensus was that warming would lead to aggregate declines of the four. Maize and soybean would decrease with any warming, whereas rice and wheat production might peak at 3 °C (5.4 °F) of warming. In 2021,

18354-537: The water cycle are projected to substantially increase precipitation in all but the westernmost parts of the watershed, the loss of the glaciers is expected to be offset: however, agriculture in the region will become more reliable on monsoon than ever, and hydropower generation would become less predictable and reliable. Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide affects plants in a variety of ways. Elevated CO 2 increases crop yields and growth through an increase in photosynthetic rate, and it also decreases water loss as

18492-438: The world. Impacts can be observed on all continents and ocean regions, with low-latitude, less developed areas facing the greatest risk. Continued warming has potentially "severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts" for people and ecosystems. The risks are unevenly distributed, but are generally greater for disadvantaged people in developing and developed countries. The World Health Organization calls climate change one of

18630-451: The yield and quality of crops. Following methane levels, tropospheric ozone levels "increased substantially since the late 19th century", and according to a 2016 estimate, the four major crops (see later section) experienced yield losses of 5±1.5% relative to a no-climate change scenario due to ozone increases alone, which is nearly half of the negative effects caused by the other effects of climate change (10.9±3.2%), and cancels out most of

18768-404: Was also adversely affected by drought after climate change intensified the effects of 2014–2016 El Niño event . In Europe , between 1950 and 2019, heat extremes have become more frequent and also more likely to occur consecutively, while cold extremes have declined. At the same time, Northern Europe and much of Eastern Europe was found to experience extreme precipitation more often, while

18906-524: Was sending more energy to Earth, but instead, it has been cooling. This is consistent with greenhouse gases preventing heat from leaving the Earth's atmosphere. Explosive volcanic eruptions can release gases, dust and ash that partially block sunlight and reduce temperatures, or they can send water vapour into the atmosphere, which adds to greenhouse gases and increases temperatures. These impacts on temperature only last for several years, because both water vapour and volcanic material have low persistence in

19044-500: Was warmed by a certain amount to compare them with the controls) concluded that on a global scale, warming alone has consistently negative effects on the yields of four most important crops, suggesting that any increases would be down to precipitation changes and the CO2 fertilization effect . In general, the preferred ambient temperature range for domestic animals is between 10 and 30 °C (50 and 86 °F). Much like how climate change

#277722