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65-568: NORCs may develop in three ways: The demographic term "NORC" was first coined in the 1980s by Michael Hunt, a professor of urban planning at the University of Wisconsin–Madison . He defined NORCs as neighborhoods and housing developments , originally built for young families, in which 50 percent of the residents are 50 years or older and have aged in place. Over time, this threshold definition has been adjusted by communities and policymakers to reflect local residential patterns. For example, in

130-408: A sexual population is the area where interbreeding is possible between any opposite-sex pair within the area and more probable than cross-breeding with individuals from other areas. In humans , interbreeding is unrestricted by racial differences, as all humans belong to the same species of Homo sapiens. In ecology, the population of a certain species in a certain area can be estimated using

195-468: A significant comparison, numbers must be altered for the size of the population that is under study. For example, the fertility rate is calculated as the ratio of the number of births to women of childbearing age to the total number of women in this age range. If these adjustments were not made, we would not know if a nation with a higher rate of births or deaths has a population with more women of childbearing age or more births per eligible woman. Within

260-629: A community must have at least 45 percent of housing units with heads of household 60 years old or older with a minimum count of at least 250 seniors, or that there be at least 500 older adults who are 60 years old or older (regardless of the percentage of housing units). NORCs are geographically defined either by the dimensions of an apartment building complex or by the boundaries of a neighborhood. While NORCs were first identified in urban settings, they can actually be found in communities large and small, and in all geographic settings. A NORC can generally be categorized as one of three types: In response to

325-401: A country (or other entity) contains Population t persons at time t . What is the size of the population at time t + 1 ? Natural increase from time t to t + 1: Net migration from time t to t + 1: These basic equations can also be applied to subpopulations. For example, the population size of ethnic groups or nationalities within a given society or country is subject to

390-471: A few programs, most notably the Chinese government's one-child per family policy, have resorted to coercive measures. In the 1970s, tension grew between population control advocates and women's health activists who advanced women's reproductive rights as part of a human rights -based approach. Growing opposition to the narrow population control focus led to a significant change in population control policies in

455-499: A multitude), which itself is derived from the Latin word populus (a people). In sociology and population geography , population refers to a group of human beings with some predefined feature in common, such as location, race , ethnicity , nationality , or religion . In ecology , a population is a group of organisms of the same species which inhabit the same geographical area and are capable of interbreeding . The area of

520-460: A new product, and to analyze certain dynamics of a company's workforce. Choosing a new location for a branch of a bank, choosing the area in which to start a new supermarket, consulting a bank loan officer that a particular location would be a beneficial site to start a car wash, and determining what shopping area would be best to buy and be redeveloped in metropolis area are types of problems in which demographers can be called upon. Standardization

585-498: A period of transition where in demography emerged from statistics as a separate field of interest. This period included a panoply of international 'great demographers' like Adolphe Quetelet (1796–1874), William Farr (1807–1883), Louis-Adolphe Bertillon (1821–1883) and his son Jacques (1851–1922), Joseph Körösi (1844–1906), Anders Nicolas Kaier (1838–1919), Richard Böckh (1824–1907), Émile Durkheim (1858–1917), Wilhelm Lexis (1837–1914), and Luigi Bodio (1840–1920) contributed to

650-426: A standardized mortality rate (SMR) or standardized incidence rate (SIR). Population change is analyzed by measuring the change between one population size to another. Global population continues to rise, which makes population change an essential component to demographics. This is calculated by taking one population size minus the population size in an earlier census . The best way of measuring population change

715-666: A unique scope of services, all NORC programs share one goal—maximizing the health and well-being of resident seniors so they can maintain their independence and comfortably remain in their homes as they age in place. NORC programs are generally supported by some mix of public and private funding , combining revenue and in-kind supports from government agencies , housing partners, philanthropies , corporations , community stakeholders, and residents. NORC program services may include case management , health care management , recreational and educational activities, transportation , and volunteer opportunities for senior residents. A hallmark of

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780-405: A variety of areas where researchers want to know how populations of social actors can change across time through processes of birth, death, and migration . In the context of human biological populations, demographic analysis uses administrative records to develop an independent estimate of the population. Demographic analysis estimates are often considered a reliable standard for judging

845-499: A variety of demographic methods for modelling population processes. They include models of mortality (including the life table , Gompertz models , hazards models , Cox proportional hazards models , multiple decrement life tables , Brass relational logits), fertility (Hermes model, Coale -Trussell models, parity progression ratios ), marriage (Singulate Mean at Marriage, Page model), disability ( Sullivan's method , multistate life tables), population projections ( Lee-Carter model ,

910-434: Is a useful demographic technique used in the analysis of a business. It can be used as an interpretive and analytic tool for the comparison of different markets. These organizations have interests about the number and characteristics of their clients so they can maximize the sale of their products, their outlook on their influence, or the ends of their power, services, and beneficial works. Population Population

975-417: Is because developed countries have proportionally more older people, who are more likely to die in a given year, so that the overall mortality rate can be higher even if the mortality rate at any given age is lower. A more complete picture of mortality is given by a life table , which summarizes mortality separately at each age. A life table is necessary to give a good estimate of life expectancy. Suppose that

1040-431: Is likely to continue to rise. Populations can change through three processes: fertility, mortality, and migration. Fertility involves the number of children that women have and is to be contrasted with fecundity (a woman's childbearing potential). Mortality is the study of the causes, consequences, and measurement of processes affecting death to members of the population. Demographers most commonly study mortality using

1105-600: Is not even known to the nearest million, so there is a considerable margin of error in such estimates. Researcher Carl Haub calculated that a total of over 100 billion people have probably been born in the last 2000 years. Population growth increased significantly as the Industrial Revolution gathered pace from 1700 onwards. The last 50 years have seen a yet more rapid increase in the rate of population growth due to medical advances and substantial increases in agricultural productivity, particularly beginning in

1170-611: Is often referred to as the demographic transition . Human population planning is the practice of altering the rate of growth of a human population. Historically, human population control has been implemented with the goal of limiting the rate of population growth. In the period from the 1950s to the 1980s, concerns about global population growth and its effects on poverty, environmental degradation , and political stability led to efforts to reduce population growth rates. While population control can involve measures that improve people's lives by giving them greater control of their reproduction,

1235-545: Is seen as the intellectual father of ideas of overpopulation and the limits to growth. Later, more sophisticated and realistic models were presented by Benjamin Gompertz and Verhulst . In 1855, a Belgian scholar Achille Guillard defined demography as the natural and social history of human species or the mathematical knowledge of populations, of their general changes, and of their physical, civil, intellectual, and moral condition. The period 1860–1910 can be characterized as

1300-554: Is the case in much of the developing world, and most of historical demography . One of these techniques in contemporary demography is the sister method, where survey researchers ask women how many of their sisters have died or had children and at what age. With these surveys, researchers can then indirectly estimate birth or death rates for the entire population. Other indirect methods in contemporary demography include asking people about siblings, parents, and children. Other indirect methods are necessary in historical demography. There are

1365-464: Is the term typically used to refer to the number of people in a single area. Governments conduct a census to quantify the size of a resident population within a given jurisdiction. The term is also applied to non-human animals , microorganisms , and plants , and has specific uses within such fields as ecology and genetics . The word population is derived from the Late Latin populatio (a people,

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1430-432: Is today widely taught in many universities across the world, attracting students with initial training in social sciences, statistics or health studies. Being at the crossroads of several disciplines such as sociology , economics , epidemiology , geography , anthropology and history , demography offers tools to approach a large range of population issues by combining a more technical quantitative approach that represents

1495-510: Is used in a wide variety of contexts. For example, it is often used in business plans, to describe the population connected to the geographic location of the business. Demographic analysis is usually abbreviated as DA. For the 2010 U.S. Census, The U.S. Census Bureau has expanded its DA categories. Also as part of the 2010 U.S. Census, DA now also includes comparative analysis between independent housing estimates, and census address lists at different key time points. Patient demographics form

1560-421: Is using the intercensal percentage change. The intercensal percentage change is the absolute change in population between the censuses divided by the population size in the earlier census. Next, multiply this a hundredfold to receive a percentage . When this statistic is achieved, the population growth between two or more nations that differ in size, can be accurately measured and examined. For there to be

1625-703: Is very likely that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the 21st century. Further, there is some likelihood that population will actually decline before 2100. Population has already declined in the last decade or two in Eastern Europe, the Baltics and in the former Commonwealth of Independent States. The population pattern of less-developed regions of the world in recent years has been marked by gradually declining birth rates. These followed an earlier sharp reduction in death rates. This transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates

1690-763: The International Union for the Scientific Study of Population , or a national association such as the Population Association of America in the United States, or affiliates of the Federation of Canadian Demographers in Canada . Population composition is the description of population defined by characteristics such as age, race , sex or marital status . These descriptions can be necessary for understanding

1755-649: The Leslie Matrix ), and population momentum ( Keyfitz ). The United Kingdom has a series of four national birth cohort studies, the first three spaced apart by 12 years: the 1946 National Survey of Health and Development , the 1958 National Child Development Study , the 1970 British Cohort Study , and the Millennium Cohort Study , begun much more recently in 2000. These have followed the lives of samples of people (typically beginning with around 17,000 in each study) for many years, and are still continuing. As

1820-473: The Lincoln index to calculate the total population of an area based on the number of individuals observed. In genetics, a population is often defined as a set of organisms in which any pair of members can breed together. They can thus routinely exchange gametes in order to have usually fertile progeny, and such a breeding group is also known therefore as a gamodeme. This also implies that all members belong to

1885-505: The Middle Ages , Christian thinkers devoted much time in refuting the Classical ideas on demography. Important contributors to the field were William of Conches , Bartholomew of Lucca , William of Auvergne , William of Pagula , and Muslim sociologists like Ibn Khaldun . One of the earliest demographic studies in the modern period was Natural and Political Observations Made upon

1950-558: The US , the federal government , through Title IV of the Older Americans Act , recognizes NORCs as communities in which at least 40 percent of the heads of households are older individuals. The State of Indiana defines a NORC as a community in which 50 percent of housing units have heads of household who are 60 years old or older, and/or at least 2,500 heads of household who are 60 years old or older. By contrast, New York City requires that

2015-565: The United States and much of Europe ), registry statistics are the best method for estimating the number of births and deaths. A census is the other common direct method of collecting demographic data. A census is usually conducted by a national government and attempts to enumerate every person in a country. In contrast to vital statistics data, which are typically collected continuously and summarized on an annual basis, censuses typically occur only every 10 years or so, and thus are not usually

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2080-666: The life table , a statistical device that provides information about the mortality conditions (most notably the life expectancy) in the population. Migration refers to the movement of persons from a locality of origin to a destination place across some predefined, political boundary. Migration researchers do not designate movements 'migrations' unless they are somewhat permanent. Thus, demographers do not consider tourists and travellers to be migrating. While demographers who study migration typically do so through census data on place of residence, indirect sources of data including tax forms and labour force surveys are also important. Demography

2145-433: The social dynamics from historical and comparative research. This data is often compared using a population pyramid . Population composition is also a very important part of historical research. Information ranging back hundreds of years is not always worthwhile, because the numbers of people for which data are available may not provide the information that is important (such as population size ). Lack of information on

2210-547: The 1960s, made by the Green Revolution . In 2017 the United Nations Population Division projected that the world's population would reach about 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100. In the future, the world's population is expected to peak at some point, after which it will decline due to economic reasons, health concerns, land exhaustion and environmental hazards. According to one report, it

2275-730: The Application of Probabilities to Life Contingencies (1838). In 1755, Benjamin Franklin published his essay Observations Concerning the Increase of Mankind, Peopling of Countries, etc. , projecting exponential growth in British colonies . His work influenced Thomas Robert Malthus , who, writing at the end of the 18th century, feared that, if unchecked, population growth would tend to outstrip growth in food production, leading to ever-increasing famine and poverty (see Malthusian catastrophe ). Malthus

2340-556: The Bills of Mortality (1662) by John Graunt , which contains a primitive form of life table . Among the study's findings were that one-third of the children in London died before their sixteenth birthday. Mathematicians, such as Edmond Halley , developed the life table as the basis for life insurance mathematics. Richard Price was credited with the first textbook on life contingencies published in 1771, followed later by Augustus De Morgan , On

2405-527: The NORC demographic phenomenon, many communities have developed NORC programs, also known as NORC supportive service programs (NORC-SSPs or just SSPs), to serve their senior residents by providing social and health care services tailored to their specific needs. The community-based programs are often partnerships of housing/neighborhood organizations, residents, health and social service providers, and other community stakeholders . While each NORC program may provide

2470-541: The NORC program model is its flexibility in identifying and providing the kinds of services needed by the community and the seniors who live there. The first NORC program was established in 1986 at Penn South Houses, a ten-building 2,800-unit moderate-income housing cooperative located in New York City , with support from the UJA/Federation of New York. Since then, the NORC program model has been broadly replicated at

2535-485: The United States Census Bureau, the world population hit 6.5 billion on 24 February 2006. The United Nations Population Fund designated 12 October 1999 as the approximate day on which world population reached 6 billion. This was about 12 years after the world population reached 5 billion in 1987, and six years after the world population reached 5.5 billion in 1993. The population of countries such as Nigeria

2600-425: The accuracy of the census information gathered at any time. In the labor force , demographic analysis is used to estimate sizes and flows of populations of workers; in population ecology the focus is on the birth, death, migration and immigration of individuals in a population of living organisms, alternatively, in social human sciences could involve movement of firms and institutional forms. Demographic analysis

2665-467: The basic demographic equation holds true by definition, in practice the recording and counting of events (births, deaths, immigration, emigration) and the enumeration of the total population size are subject to error. So allowance needs to be made for error in the underlying statistics when any accounting of population size or change is made. The figure in this section shows the latest (2004) UN ( United Nations ) WHO projections of world population out to

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2730-696: The best source of data on births and deaths. Analyses are conducted after a census to estimate how much over or undercounting took place. These compare the sex ratios from the census data to those estimated from natural values and mortality data. Censuses do more than just count people. They typically collect information about families or households in addition to individual characteristics such as age, sex, marital status, literacy/education, employment status, and occupation, and geographical location. They may also collect data on migration (or place of birth or of previous residence), language, religion, nationality (or ethnicity or race), and citizenship. In countries in which

2795-480: The breaking up of a large sexual population (panmictic) into smaller overlapping sexual populations. This failure of panmixia leads to two important changes in overall population structure: (1) the component gamodemes vary (through gamete sampling) in their allele frequencies when compared with each other and with the theoretical panmictic original (this is known as dispersion, and its details can be estimated using expansion of an appropriate binomial equation ); and (2)

2860-518: The category of standardization , there are two major approaches: direct standardization and indirect standardization. A stable population does not necessarily remain fixed in size. It can be expanding or shrinking. The crude death rate as defined above and applied to a whole population can give a misleading impression. For example, the number of deaths per 1,000 people can be higher in developed nations than in less-developed countries, despite standards of health being better in developed countries. This

2925-553: The core of the data for any medical institution, such as patient and emergency contact information and patient medical record data. They allow for the identification of a patient and their categorization into categories for the purpose of statistical analysis. Patient demographics include: date of birth , gender , date of death , postal code, ethnicity, blood type , emergency contact information, family doctor, insurance provider data, allergies , major diagnoses and major medical history. Formal demography limits its object of study to

2990-494: The core of the discipline with many other methods borrowed from social or other sciences. Demographic research is conducted in universities, in research institutes, as well as in statistical departments and in several international agencies. Population institutions are part of the CICRED (International Committee for Coordination of Demographic Research) network while most individual scientists engaged in demographic research are members of

3055-528: The development of demography and to the toolkit of methods and techniques of demographic analysis. Demography is the statistical and mathematical study of the size, composition, and spatial distribution of human populations and how these features change over time. Data are obtained from a census of the population and from registries: records of events like birth , deaths , migrations, marriages, divorces , diseases, and employment . To do this, there needs to be an understanding of how they are calculated and

3120-644: The distribution and abundance of organisms. As it relates to organizations and demography, organizations go through various liabilities to their continued survival. Hospitals, like all other large and complex organizations are impacted in the environment they work. For example, a study was done on the closure of acute care hospitals in Florida between a particular time. The study examined effect size, age, and niche density of these particular hospitals. A population theory says that organizational outcomes are mostly determined by environmental factors . Among several factors of

3185-408: The family. The causes of turnover can be split into two separate factors, one linked with the culture of the organization, and the other relating to all other factors. People who do not fully accept a culture might leave voluntarily. Or, some individuals might leave because they fail to fit in and fail to change within a particular organization. A basic definition of population ecology is a study of

3250-525: The interplay of fertility (births), mortality (deaths), and migration. Demographic analysis examines and measures the dimensions and dynamics of populations; it can cover whole societies or groups defined by criteria such as education , nationality , religion , and ethnicity . Educational institutions usually treat demography as a field of sociology , though there are a number of independent demography departments. These methods have primarily been developed to study human populations, but are extended to

3315-463: The level of homozygosity rises in the entire collection of gamodemes. The overall rise in homozygosity is quantified by the inbreeding coefficient (f or φ). All homozygotes are increased in frequency – both the deleterious and the desirable. The mean phenotype of the gamodemes collection is lower than that of the panmictic original – which is known as inbreeding depression. It is most important to note, however, that some dispersion lines will be superior to

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3380-429: The local, state, and national levels and can be found in more than 25 states across the country. Demography Demography (from Ancient Greek δῆμος ( dêmos )  'people, society' and -γραφία ( -graphía )  'writing, drawing, description') is the statistical study of human populations : their size, composition (e.g., ethnic group, age), and how they change through

3445-418: The measurement of population processes, while the broader field of social demography or population studies also analyses the relationships between economic, social, institutional, cultural, and biological processes influencing a population. Demographic thoughts traced back to antiquity, and were present in many civilisations and cultures, like Ancient Greece , Ancient Rome , China and India . Made up of

3510-413: The nation will become a nation of immigrants. This influx is projected to rise over the next century as new immigrants and their children will account for over half the U.S. population. These demographic shifts could ignite major adjustments in the economy, more specifically, in labor markets. People decide to exit organizations for many reasons, such as, better jobs, dissatisfaction, and concerns within

3575-458: The original data-collection procedures may prevent accurate evaluation of data quality. The demographic analysis of labor markets can be used to show slow population growth, population aging , and the increased importance of immigration. The U.S. Census Bureau projects that in the next 100 years, the United States will face some dramatic demographic changes. The population is expected to grow more slowly and age more rapidly than ever before and

3640-418: The panmictic original, while some will be about the same, and some will be inferior. The probabilities of each can be estimated from those binomial equations. In plant and animal breeding , procedures have been developed which deliberately utilize the effects of dispersion (such as line breeding, pure-line breeding, backcrossing). Dispersion-assisted selection leads to the greatest genetic advance (ΔG=change in

3705-756: The phenotypic mean), and is much more powerful than selection acting without attendant dispersion. This is so for both allogamous (random fertilization) and autogamous (self-fertilization) gamodemes. According to the UN, the world's population surpassed 8 billion on 15 November 2022, an increase of 1 billion since 12 March 2012. According to a separate estimate by the United Nations, Earth's population exceeded seven billion in October 2011. According to UNFPA , growth to such an extent offers unprecedented challenges and opportunities to all of humanity. According to papers published by

3770-512: The prefix demo- and the suffix -graphy , the term demography refers to the overall study of population. In ancient Greece, this can be found in the writings of Herodotus , Thucydides , Hippocrates , Epicurus , Protagoras , Polus , Plato and Aristotle . In Rome, writers and philosophers like Cicero , Seneca , Pliny the Elder , Marcus Aurelius , Epictetus , Cato , and Columella also expressed important ideas on this ground. In

3835-566: The questions they answer which are included in these four concepts: population change , standardization of population numbers, the demographic bookkeeping equation, and population composition. There are two types of data collection —direct and indirect—with several methods of each type. Direct data comes from vital statistics registries that track all births and deaths as well as certain changes in legal status such as marriage, divorce, and migration (registration of place of residence). In developed countries with good registration systems (such as

3900-417: The same sources of change. When dealing with ethnic groups, however, "net migration" might have to be subdivided into physical migration and ethnic reidentification ( assimilation ). Individuals who change their ethnic self-labels or whose ethnic classification in government statistics changes over time may be thought of as migrating or moving from one population subcategory to another. More generally, while

3965-829: The same species. If the gamodeme is very large (theoretically, approaching infinity), and all gene alleles are uniformly distributed by the gametes within it, the gamodeme is said to be panmictic. Under this state, allele ( gamete ) frequencies can be converted to genotype ( zygote ) frequencies by expanding an appropriate quadratic equation , as shown by Sir Ronald Fisher in his establishment of quantitative genetics. This seldom occurs in nature: localization of gamete exchange – through dispersal limitations, preferential mating, cataclysm, or other cause – may lead to small actual gamodemes which exchange gametes reasonably uniformly within themselves but are virtually separated from their neighboring gamodemes. However, there may be low frequencies of exchange with these neighbors. This may be viewed as

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4030-447: The samples have been drawn in a nationally representative way, inferences can be drawn from these studies about the differences between four distinct generations of British people in terms of their health, education, attitudes, childbearing and employment patterns. Indirect standardization is used when a population is small enough that the number of events (births, deaths, etc.) are also small. In this case, methods must be used to produce

4095-404: The theory, there are four that apply to the hospital closure example: size, age, density of niches in which organizations operate, and density of niches in which organizations are established. Problems in which demographers may be called upon to assist business organizations are when determining the best prospective location in an area of a branch store or service outlet, predicting the demand for

4160-474: The vital registration system may be incomplete, the censuses are also used as a direct source of information about fertility and mortality; for example, the censuses of the People's Republic of China gather information on births and deaths that occurred in the 18 months immediately preceding the census. Indirect methods of collecting data are required in countries and periods where full data are not available, such as

4225-518: The year 2150 (red = high, orange = medium, green = low). The UN "medium" projection shows world population reaching an approximate equilibrium at 9 billion by 2075. Working independently, demographers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria expect world population to peak at 9 billion by 2070. Throughout the 21st century, the average age of the population

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