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123-405: Intelligent control can be divided into the following major sub-domains: New control techniques are created continuously as new models of intelligent behavior are created and computational methods developed to support them. Neural networks have been used to solve problems in almost all spheres of science and technology. Neural network control basically involves two steps: It has been shown that

246-515: A feedforward network with nonlinear, continuous and differentiable activation functions have universal approximation capability. Recurrent networks have also been used for system identification. Given, a set of input-output data pairs, system identification aims to form a mapping among these data pairs. Such a network is supposed to capture the dynamics of a system. For the control part, deep reinforcement learning has shown its ability to control complex systems. Bayesian probability has produced

369-469: A population , for example by testing hypotheses and deriving estimates. It is assumed that the observed data set is sampled from a larger population. Inferential statistics can be contrasted with descriptive statistics . Descriptive statistics is solely concerned with properties of the observed data, and it does not rest on the assumption that the data come from a larger population. Consider independent identically distributed (IID) random variables with

492-411: A 1994 book, did not yet describe the algorithm ). In 1986, David E. Rumelhart et al. popularised backpropagation but did not cite the original work. Kunihiko Fukushima 's convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture of 1979 also introduced max pooling , a popular downsampling procedure for CNNs. CNNs have become an essential tool for computer vision . The time delay neural network (TDNN)

615-471: A CNN named DanNet by Dan Ciresan, Ueli Meier, Jonathan Masci, Luca Maria Gambardella , and Jürgen Schmidhuber achieved for the first time superhuman performance in a visual pattern recognition contest, outperforming traditional methods by a factor of 3. It then won more contests. They also showed how max-pooling CNNs on GPU improved performance significantly. In October 2012, AlexNet by Alex Krizhevsky , Ilya Sutskever , and Geoffrey Hinton won

738-411: A CNN was applied to medical image object segmentation and breast cancer detection in mammograms. LeNet -5 (1998), a 7-level CNN by Yann LeCun et al., that classifies digits, was applied by several banks to recognize hand-written numbers on checks digitized in 32×32 pixel images. From 1988 onward, the use of neural networks transformed the field of protein structure prediction , in particular when

861-542: A Hebbian network. Other neural network computational machines were created by Rochester , Holland, Habit and Duda (1956). In 1958, psychologist Frank Rosenblatt described the perceptron, one of the first implemented artificial neural networks, funded by the United States Office of Naval Research . R. D. Joseph (1960) mentions an even earlier perceptron-like device by Farley and Clark: "Farley and Clark of MIT Lincoln Laboratory actually preceded Rosenblatt in

984-409: A complex and seemingly unrelated set of information. Neural networks are typically trained through empirical risk minimization . This method is based on the idea of optimizing the network's parameters to minimize the difference, or empirical risk, between the predicted output and the actual target values in a given dataset. Gradient-based methods such as backpropagation are usually used to estimate

1107-461: A constant and the cost C = E [ ( x − f ( x ) ) 2 ] {\displaystyle \textstyle C=E[(x-f(x))^{2}]} . Minimizing this cost produces a value of a {\displaystyle \textstyle a} that is equal to the mean of the data. The cost function can be much more complicated. Its form depends on the application: for example, in compression it could be related to

1230-418: A decade earlier in 1795. The modern field of statistics emerged in the late 19th and early 20th century in three stages. The first wave, at the turn of the century, was led by the work of Francis Galton and Karl Pearson , who transformed statistics into a rigorous mathematical discipline used for analysis, not just in science, but in industry and politics as well. Galton's contributions included introducing

1353-444: A deep network with eight layers trained by this method, which is based on layer by layer training through regression analysis. Superfluous hidden units are pruned using a separate validation set. Since the activation functions of the nodes are Kolmogorov-Gabor polynomials, these were also the first deep networks with multiplicative units or "gates." The first deep learning multilayer perceptron trained by stochastic gradient descent

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1476-458: A given probability distribution : standard statistical inference and estimation theory defines a random sample as the random vector given by the column vector of these IID variables. The population being examined is described by a probability distribution that may have unknown parameters. A statistic is a random variable that is a function of the random sample, but not a function of unknown parameters . The probability distribution of

1599-484: A given probability of containing the true value is to use a credible interval from Bayesian statistics : this approach depends on a different way of interpreting what is meant by "probability" , that is as a Bayesian probability . In principle confidence intervals can be symmetrical or asymmetrical. An interval can be asymmetrical because it works as lower or upper bound for a parameter (left-sided interval or right sided interval), but it can also be asymmetrical because

1722-471: A given situation and carry the computation, several methods have been proposed: the method of moments , the maximum likelihood method, the least squares method and the more recent method of estimating equations . Interpretation of statistical information can often involve the development of a null hypothesis which is usually (but not necessarily) that no relationship exists among variables or that no change occurred over time. The best illustration for

1845-548: A mathematical discipline only took shape at the very end of the 17th century, particularly in Jacob Bernoulli 's posthumous work Ars Conjectandi . This was the first book where the realm of games of chance and the realm of the probable (which concerned opinion, evidence, and argument) were combined and submitted to mathematical analysis. The method of least squares was first described by Adrien-Marie Legendre in 1805, though Carl Friedrich Gauss presumably made use of it

1968-1028: A meaningful order to those values, and permit any order-preserving transformation. Interval measurements have meaningful distances between measurements defined, but the zero value is arbitrary (as in the case with longitude and temperature measurements in Celsius or Fahrenheit ), and permit any linear transformation. Ratio measurements have both a meaningful zero value and the distances between different measurements defined, and permit any rescaling transformation. Because variables conforming only to nominal or ordinal measurements cannot be reasonably measured numerically, sometimes they are grouped together as categorical variables , whereas ratio and interval measurements are grouped together as quantitative variables , which can be either discrete or continuous , due to their numerical nature. Such distinctions can often be loosely correlated with data type in computer science, in that dichotomous categorical variables may be represented with

2091-582: A neural network model of cognition-emotion relation. It was an example of a debate where an AI system, a recurrent neural network, contributed to an issue in the same time addressed by cognitive psychology. Two early influential works were the Jordan network (1986) and the Elman network (1990), which applied RNN to study cognitive psychology . In the 1980s, backpropagation did not work well for deep RNNs. To overcome this problem, in 1991, Jürgen Schmidhuber proposed

2214-499: A novice is the predicament encountered by a criminal trial. The null hypothesis, H 0 , asserts that the defendant is innocent, whereas the alternative hypothesis, H 1 , asserts that the defendant is guilty. The indictment comes because of suspicion of the guilt. The H 0 (status quo) stands in opposition to H 1 and is maintained unless H 1 is supported by evidence "beyond a reasonable doubt". However, "failure to reject H 0 " in this case does not imply innocence, but merely that

2337-474: A number of algorithms that are in common use in many advanced control systems, serving as state space estimators of some variables that are used in the controller. The Kalman filter and the Particle filter are two examples of popular Bayesian control components. The Bayesian approach to controller design often requires an important effort in deriving the so-called system model and measurement model, which are

2460-572: A particular learning task. Supervised learning uses a set of paired inputs and desired outputs. The learning task is to produce the desired output for each input. In this case, the cost function is related to eliminating incorrect deductions. A commonly used cost is the mean-squared error , which tries to minimize the average squared error between the network's output and the desired output. Tasks suited for supervised learning are pattern recognition (also known as classification) and regression (also known as function approximation). Supervised learning

2583-404: A population, so results do not fully represent the whole population. Any estimates obtained from the sample only approximate the population value. Confidence intervals allow statisticians to express how closely the sample estimate matches the true value in the whole population. Often they are expressed as 95% confidence intervals. Formally, a 95% confidence interval for a value is a range where, if

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2706-412: A problem, it is common practice to start with a population or process to be studied. Populations can be diverse topics, such as "all people living in a country" or "every atom composing a crystal". Ideally, statisticians compile data about the entire population (an operation called a census ). This may be organized by governmental statistical institutes. Descriptive statistics can be used to summarize

2829-497: A sample using indexes such as the mean or standard deviation , and inferential statistics , which draw conclusions from data that are subject to random variation (e.g., observational errors, sampling variation). Descriptive statistics are most often concerned with two sets of properties of a distribution (sample or population): central tendency (or location ) seeks to characterize the distribution's central or typical value, while dispersion (or variability ) characterizes

2952-413: A single layer of output nodes with linear activation functions; the inputs are fed directly to the outputs via a series of weights. The sum of the products of the weights and the inputs is calculated at each node. The mean squared errors between these calculated outputs and the given target values are minimized by creating an adjustment to the weights. This technique has been known for over two centuries as

3075-418: A single output which can be sent to multiple other neurons. The inputs can be the feature values of a sample of external data, such as images or documents, or they can be the outputs of other neurons. The outputs of the final output neurons of the neural net accomplish the task, such as recognizing an object in an image. To find the output of the neuron we take the weighted sum of all the inputs, weighted by

3198-460: A statistician would use a modified, more structured estimation method (e.g., difference in differences estimation and instrumental variables , among many others) that produce consistent estimators . The basic steps of a statistical experiment are: Experiments on human behavior have special concerns. The famous Hawthorne study examined changes to the working environment at the Hawthorne plant of

3321-637: A test and confidence intervals . Jerzy Neyman in 1934 showed that stratified random sampling was in general a better method of estimation than purposive (quota) sampling. Today, statistical methods are applied in all fields that involve decision making, for making accurate inferences from a collated body of data and for making decisions in the face of uncertainty based on statistical methodology. The use of modern computers has expedited large-scale statistical computations and has also made possible new methods that are impractical to perform manually. Statistics continues to be an area of active research, for example on

3444-399: A transformation is sensible to contemplate depends on the question one is trying to answer." A descriptive statistic (in the count noun sense) is a summary statistic that quantitatively describes or summarizes features of a collection of information , while descriptive statistics in the mass noun sense is the process of using and analyzing those statistics. Descriptive statistics

3567-419: A value accurately rejecting the null hypothesis (sometimes referred to as the p-value ). The standard approach is to test a null hypothesis against an alternative hypothesis. A critical region is the set of values of the estimator that leads to refuting the null hypothesis. The probability of type I error is therefore the probability that the estimator belongs to the critical region given that null hypothesis

3690-560: A working learning algorithm for hidden units, i.e., deep learning . Fundamental research was conducted on ANNs in the 1960s and 1970s. The first working deep learning algorithm was the Group method of data handling , a method to train arbitrarily deep neural networks, published by Alexey Ivakhnenko and Lapa in Ukraine (1965). They regarded it as a form of polynomial regression, or a generalization of Rosenblatt's perceptron. A 1971 paper described

3813-412: Is a real number , and the output of each neuron is computed by some non-linear function of the sum of its inputs, called the activation function . The strength of the signal at each connection is determined by a weight , which adjusts during the learning process. Typically, neurons are aggregated into layers. Different layers may perform different transformations on their inputs. Signals travel from

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3936-409: Is a constant parameter whose value is set before the learning process begins. The values of parameters are derived via learning. Examples of hyperparameters include learning rate , the number of hidden layers and batch size. The values of some hyperparameters can be dependent on those of other hyperparameters. For example, the size of some layers can depend on the overall number of layers. Learning

4059-427: Is also applicable to sequential data (e.g., for handwriting, speech and gesture recognition ). This can be thought of as learning with a "teacher", in the form of a function that provides continuous feedback on the quality of solutions obtained thus far. In unsupervised learning , input data is given along with the cost function, some function of the data x {\displaystyle \textstyle x} and

4182-575: Is another type of observational study in which people with and without the outcome of interest (e.g. lung cancer) are invited to participate and their exposure histories are collected. Various attempts have been made to produce a taxonomy of levels of measurement . The psychophysicist Stanley Smith Stevens defined nominal, ordinal, interval, and ratio scales. Nominal measurements do not have meaningful rank order among values, and permit any one-to-one (injective) transformation. Ordinal measurements have imprecise differences between consecutive values, but have

4305-465: Is appropriate to apply different kinds of statistical methods to data obtained from different kinds of measurement procedures is complicated by issues concerning the transformation of variables and the precise interpretation of research questions. "The relationship between the data and what they describe merely reflects the fact that certain kinds of statistical statements may have truth values which are not invariant under some transformations. Whether or not

4428-834: Is called error term, disturbance or more simply noise. Both linear regression and non-linear regression are addressed in polynomial least squares , which also describes the variance in a prediction of the dependent variable (y axis) as a function of the independent variable (x axis) and the deviations (errors, noise, disturbances) from the estimated (fitted) curve. Measurement processes that generate statistical data are also subject to error. Many of these errors are classified as random (noise) or systematic ( bias ), but other types of errors (e.g., blunder, such as when an analyst reports incorrect units) can also be important. The presence of missing data or censoring may result in biased estimates and specific techniques have been developed to address these problems. Most studies only sample part of

4551-597: Is conventional to begin with a statistical population or a statistical model to be studied. Populations can be diverse groups of people or objects such as "all people living in a country" or "every atom composing a crystal". Statistics deals with every aspect of data, including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of surveys and experiments . When census data cannot be collected, statisticians collect data by developing specific experiment designs and survey samples . Representative sampling assures that inferences and conclusions can reasonably extend from

4674-428: Is distinguished from inferential statistics (or inductive statistics), in that descriptive statistics aims to summarize a sample , rather than use the data to learn about the population that the sample of data is thought to represent. Statistical inference is the process of using data analysis to deduce properties of an underlying probability distribution . Inferential statistical analysis infers properties of

4797-418: Is one that explores the association between smoking and lung cancer. This type of study typically uses a survey to collect observations about the area of interest and then performs statistical analysis. In this case, the researchers would collect observations of both smokers and non-smokers, perhaps through a cohort study , and then look for the number of cases of lung cancer in each group. A case-control study

4920-451: Is proposed for the statistical relationship between the two data sets, an alternative to an idealized null hypothesis of no relationship between two data sets. Rejecting or disproving the null hypothesis is done using statistical tests that quantify the sense in which the null can be proven false, given the data that are used in the test. Working from a null hypothesis, two basic forms of error are recognized: Type I errors (null hypothesis

5043-408: Is rejected when it is in fact true, giving a "false positive") and Type II errors (null hypothesis fails to be rejected when it is in fact false, giving a "false negative"). Multiple problems have come to be associated with this framework, ranging from obtaining a sufficient sample size to specifying an adequate null hypothesis. Statistical measurement processes are also prone to error in regards to

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5166-444: Is the adaptation of the network to better handle a task by considering sample observations. Learning involves adjusting the weights (and optional thresholds) of the network to improve the accuracy of the result. This is done by minimizing the observed errors. Learning is complete when examining additional observations does not usefully reduce the error rate. Even after learning, the error rate typically does not reach 0. If after learning,

5289-402: Is true ( statistical significance ) and the probability of type II error is the probability that the estimator does not belong to the critical region given that the alternative hypothesis is true. The statistical power of a test is the probability that it correctly rejects the null hypothesis when the null hypothesis is false. Referring to statistical significance does not necessarily mean that

5412-449: Is widely employed in government, business, and natural and social sciences. The mathematical foundations of statistics developed from discussions concerning games of chance among mathematicians such as Gerolamo Cardano , Blaise Pascal , Pierre de Fermat , and Christiaan Huygens . Although the idea of probability was already examined in ancient and medieval law and philosophy (such as the work of Juan Caramuel ), probability theory as

5535-450: The Boltzmann machine , restricted Boltzmann machine , Helmholtz machine , and the wake-sleep algorithm . These were designed for unsupervised learning of deep generative models. Between 2009 and 2012, ANNs began winning prizes in image recognition contests, approaching human level performance on various tasks, initially in pattern recognition and handwriting recognition . In 2011,

5658-760: The Boolean data type , polytomous categorical variables with arbitrarily assigned integers in the integral data type , and continuous variables with the real data type involving floating-point arithmetic . But the mapping of computer science data types to statistical data types depends on which categorization of the latter is being implemented. Other categorizations have been proposed. For example, Mosteller and Tukey (1977) distinguished grades, ranks, counted fractions, counts, amounts, and balances. Nelder (1990) described continuous counts, continuous ratios, count ratios, and categorical modes of data. (See also: Chrisman (1998), van den Berg (1991). ) The issue of whether or not it

5781-563: The ReLU (rectified linear unit) activation function . The rectifier has become the most popular activation function for deep learning. Nevertheless, research stagnated in the United States following the work of Minsky and Papert (1969), who emphasized that basic perceptrons were incapable of processing the exclusive-or circuit. This insight was irrelevant for the deep networks of Ivakhnenko (1965) and Amari (1967). In 1976 transfer learning

5904-477: The Western Electric Company . The researchers were interested in determining whether increased illumination would increase the productivity of the assembly line workers. The researchers first measured the productivity in the plant, then modified the illumination in an area of the plant and checked if the changes in illumination affected productivity. It turned out that productivity indeed improved (under

6027-546: The forecasting , prediction , and estimation of unobserved values either in or associated with the population being studied. It can include extrapolation and interpolation of time series or spatial data , as well as data mining . Mathematical statistics is the application of mathematics to statistics. Mathematical techniques used for this include mathematical analysis , linear algebra , stochastic analysis , differential equations , and measure-theoretic probability theory . Formal discussions on inference date back to

6150-432: The limit to the true value of such parameter. Other desirable properties for estimators include: UMVUE estimators that have the lowest variance for all possible values of the parameter to be estimated (this is usually an easier property to verify than efficiency) and consistent estimators which converges in probability to the true value of such parameter. This still leaves the question of how to obtain estimators in

6273-707: The mathematicians and cryptographers of the Islamic Golden Age between the 8th and 13th centuries. Al-Khalil (717–786) wrote the Book of Cryptographic Messages , which contains one of the first uses of permutations and combinations , to list all possible Arabic words with and without vowels. Al-Kindi 's Manuscript on Deciphering Cryptographic Messages gave a detailed description of how to use frequency analysis to decipher encrypted messages, providing an early example of statistical inference for decoding . Ibn Adlan (1187–1268) later made an important contribution on

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6396-408: The method of least squares or linear regression . It was used as a means of finding a good rough linear fit to a set of points by Legendre (1805) and Gauss (1795) for the prediction of planetary movement. Historically, digital computers such as the von Neumann model operate via the execution of explicit instructions with access to memory by a number of processors. Some neural networks, on

6519-410: The mutual information between x {\displaystyle \textstyle x} and f ( x ) {\displaystyle \textstyle f(x)} , whereas in statistical modeling, it could be related to the posterior probability of the model given the data (note that in both of those examples, those quantities would be maximized rather than minimized). Tasks that fall within

6642-554: The vanishing gradient problem and proposed recurrent residual connections to solve it. He and Schmidhuber introduced long short-term memory (LSTM), which set accuracy records in multiple applications domains. This was not yet the modern version of LSTM, which required the forget gate, which was introduced in 1999. It became the default choice for RNN architecture. During 1985–1995, inspired by statistical mechanics, several architectures and methods were developed by Terry Sejnowski , Peter Dayan , Geoffrey Hinton , etc., including

6765-557: The weights of the connections from the inputs to the neuron. We add a bias term to this sum. This weighted sum is sometimes called the activation . This weighted sum is then passed through a (usually nonlinear) activation function to produce the output. The initial inputs are external data, such as images and documents. The ultimate outputs accomplish the task, such as recognizing an object in an image. The neurons are typically organized into multiple layers, especially in deep learning . Neurons of one layer connect only to neurons of

6888-473: The "neural sequence chunker" or "neural history compressor" which introduced the important concepts of self-supervised pre-training (the "P" in ChatGPT ) and neural knowledge distillation . In 1993, a neural history compressor system solved a "Very Deep Learning" task that required more than 1000 subsequent layers in an RNN unfolded in time. In 1991, Sepp Hochreiter 's diploma thesis identified and analyzed

7011-507: The 2010s, the seq2seq model was developed, and attention mechanisms were added. It led to the modern Transformer architecture in 2017 in Attention Is All You Need . It requires computation time that is quadratic in the size of the context window. Jürgen Schmidhuber 's fast weight controller (1992) scales linearly and was later shown to be equivalent to the unnormalized linear Transformer. Transformers have increasingly become

7134-428: The ability to learn and model non-linearities and complex relationships. This is achieved by neurons being connected in various patterns, allowing the output of some neurons to become the input of others. The network forms a directed , weighted graph . An artificial neural network consists of simulated neurons. Each neuron is connected to other nodes via links like a biological axon-synapse-dendrite connection. All

7257-434: The agent decides whether to explore new actions to uncover their costs or to exploit prior learning to proceed more quickly. Statistics Statistics (from German : Statistik , orig. "description of a state , a country" ) is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data . In applying statistics to a scientific, industrial, or social problem, it

7380-466: The art in generative modeling during 2014–2018 period. The GAN principle was originally published in 1991 by Jürgen Schmidhuber who called it "artificial curiosity": two neural networks contest with each other in the form of a zero-sum game , where one network's gain is the other network's loss. The first network is a generative model that models a probability distribution over output patterns. The second network learns by gradient descent to predict

7503-433: The balance between the gradient and the previous change to be weighted such that the weight adjustment depends to some degree on the previous change. A momentum close to 0 emphasizes the gradient, while a value close to 1 emphasizes the last change. While it is possible to define a cost function ad hoc , frequently the choice is determined by the function's desirable properties (such as convexity ) or because it arises from

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7626-439: The collection, analysis, interpretation or explanation, and presentation of data , or as a branch of mathematics . Some consider statistics to be a distinct mathematical science rather than a branch of mathematics. While many scientific investigations make use of data, statistics is generally concerned with the use of data in the context of uncertainty and decision-making in the face of uncertainty. In applying statistics to

7749-535: The concepts of standard deviation , correlation , regression analysis and the application of these methods to the study of the variety of human characteristics—height, weight and eyelash length among others. Pearson developed the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient , defined as a product-moment, the method of moments for the fitting of distributions to samples and the Pearson distribution , among many other things. Galton and Pearson founded Biometrika as

7872-538: The concepts of sufficiency , ancillary statistics , Fisher's linear discriminator and Fisher information . He also coined the term null hypothesis during the Lady tasting tea experiment, which "is never proved or established, but is possibly disproved, in the course of experimentation". In his 1930 book The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection , he applied statistics to various biological concepts such as Fisher's principle (which A. W. F. Edwards called "probably

7995-425: The data that they generate. Many of these errors are classified as random (noise) or systematic ( bias ), but other types of errors (e.g., blunder, such as when an analyst reports incorrect units) can also occur. The presence of missing data or censoring may result in biased estimates and specific techniques have been developed to address these problems. Statistics is a mathematical body of science that pertains to

8118-874: The development of a perceptron-like device." However, "they dropped the subject." The perceptron raised public excitement for research in Artificial Neural Networks, causing the US government to drastically increase funding. This contributed to "the Golden Age of AI" fueled by the optimistic claims made by computer scientists regarding the ability of perceptrons to emulate human intelligence. The first perceptrons did not have adaptive hidden units. However, Joseph (1960) also discussed multilayer perceptrons with an adaptive hidden layer. Rosenblatt (1962) cited and adopted these ideas, also crediting work by H. D. Block and B. W. Knight. Unfortunately, these early efforts did not lead to

8241-406: The effect of differences of an independent variable (or variables) on the behavior of the dependent variable are observed. The difference between the two types lies in how the study is actually conducted. Each can be very effective. An experimental study involves taking measurements of the system under study, manipulating the system, and then taking additional measurements with different levels using

8364-405: The error rate is too high, the network typically must be redesigned. Practically this is done by defining a cost function that is evaluated periodically during learning. As long as its output continues to decline, learning continues. The cost is frequently defined as a statistic whose value can only be approximated. The outputs are actually numbers, so when the error is low, the difference between

8487-495: The evidence was insufficient to convict. So the jury does not necessarily accept H 0 but fails to reject H 0 . While one can not "prove" a null hypothesis, one can test how close it is to being true with a power test , which tests for type II errors . What statisticians call an alternative hypothesis is simply a hypothesis that contradicts the null hypothesis. Working from a null hypothesis , two broad categories of error are recognized: Standard deviation refers to

8610-478: The expected value assumes on a given sample (also called prediction). Mean squared error is used for obtaining efficient estimators , a widely used class of estimators. Root mean square error is simply the square root of mean squared error. Many statistical methods seek to minimize the residual sum of squares , and these are called " methods of least squares " in contrast to Least absolute deviations . The latter gives equal weight to small and big errors, while

8733-474: The experimental conditions). However, the study is heavily criticized today for errors in experimental procedures, specifically for the lack of a control group and blindness . The Hawthorne effect refers to finding that an outcome (in this case, worker productivity) changed due to observation itself. Those in the Hawthorne study became more productive not because the lighting was changed but because they were being observed. An example of an observational study

8856-402: The extent to which individual observations in a sample differ from a central value, such as the sample or population mean, while Standard error refers to an estimate of difference between sample mean and population mean. A statistical error is the amount by which an observation differs from its expected value . A residual is the amount an observation differs from the value the estimator of

8979-450: The extent to which members of the distribution depart from its center and each other. Inferences made using mathematical statistics employ the framework of probability theory , which deals with the analysis of random phenomena. A standard statistical procedure involves the collection of data leading to a test of the relationship between two statistical data sets, or a data set and synthetic data drawn from an idealized model. A hypothesis

9102-483: The first cascading networks were trained on profiles (matrices) produced by multiple sequence alignments . One origin of RNN was statistical mechanics . In 1972, Shun'ichi Amari proposed to modify the weights of an Ising model by Hebbian learning rule as a model of associative memory, adding in the component of learning. This was popularized as the Hopfield network by John Hopfield (1982). Another origin of RNN

9225-432: The first journal of mathematical statistics and biostatistics (then called biometry ), and the latter founded the world's first university statistics department at University College London . The second wave of the 1910s and 20s was initiated by William Sealy Gosset , and reached its culmination in the insights of Ronald Fisher , who wrote the textbooks that were to define the academic discipline in universities around

9348-466: The first layer (the input layer ) to the last layer (the output layer ), possibly passing through multiple intermediate layers ( hidden layers ). A network is typically called a deep neural network if it has at least two hidden layers. Artificial neural networks are used for various tasks, including predictive modeling , adaptive control , and solving problems in artificial intelligence . They can learn from experience, and can derive conclusions from

9471-402: The former gives more weight to large errors. Residual sum of squares is also differentiable , which provides a handy property for doing regression . Least squares applied to linear regression is called ordinary least squares method and least squares applied to nonlinear regression is called non-linear least squares . Also in a linear regression model the non deterministic part of the model

9594-605: The given parameters of a total population to deduce probabilities that pertain to samples. Statistical inference, however, moves in the opposite direction— inductively inferring from samples to the parameters of a larger or total population. A common goal for a statistical research project is to investigate causality , and in particular to draw a conclusion on the effect of changes in the values of predictors or independent variables on dependent variables . There are two major types of causal statistical studies: experimental studies and observational studies . In both types of studies,

9717-442: The immediately preceding and immediately following layers. The layer that receives external data is the input layer . The layer that produces the ultimate result is the output layer . In between them are zero or more hidden layers . Single layer and unlayered networks are also used. Between two layers, multiple connection patterns are possible. They can be 'fully connected', with every neuron in one layer connecting to every neuron in

9840-534: The large-scale ImageNet competition by a significant margin over shallow machine learning methods. Further incremental improvements included the VGG-16 network by Karen Simonyan and Andrew Zisserman and Google's Inceptionv3 . In 2012, Ng and Dean created a network that learned to recognize higher-level concepts, such as cats, only from watching unlabeled images. Unsupervised pre-training and increased computing power from GPUs and distributed computing allowed

9963-406: The mathematical relationships linking the state variables to the sensor measurements available in the controlled system. In this respect, it is very closely linked to the system-theoretic approach to control design . Artificial neural network In machine learning , a neural network (also artificial neural network or neural net , abbreviated ANN or NN ) is a model inspired by

10086-427: The model (e.g. in a probabilistic model the model's posterior probability can be used as an inverse cost). Backpropagation is a method used to adjust the connection weights to compensate for each error found during learning. The error amount is effectively divided among the connections. Technically, backprop calculates the gradient (the derivative) of the cost function associated with a given state with respect to

10209-433: The model of choice for natural language processing . Many modern large language models such as ChatGPT , GPT-4 , and BERT use this architecture. ANNs began as an attempt to exploit the architecture of the human brain to perform tasks that conventional algorithms had little success with. They soon reoriented towards improving empirical results, abandoning attempts to remain true to their biological precursors. ANNs have

10332-424: The most celebrated argument in evolutionary biology ") and Fisherian runaway , a concept in sexual selection about a positive feedback runaway effect found in evolution . The final wave, which mainly saw the refinement and expansion of earlier developments, emerged from the collaborative work between Egon Pearson and Jerzy Neyman in the 1930s. They introduced the concepts of " Type II " error, power of

10455-442: The most positive (lowest cost) responses. In reinforcement learning , the aim is to weight the network (devise a policy) to perform actions that minimize long-term (expected cumulative) cost. At each point in time the agent performs an action and the environment generates an observation and an instantaneous cost, according to some (usually unknown) rules. The rules and the long-term cost usually only can be estimated. At any juncture,

10578-401: The network's output. The cost function is dependent on the task (the model domain) and any a priori assumptions (the implicit properties of the model, its parameters and the observed variables). As a trivial example, consider the model f ( x ) = a {\displaystyle \textstyle f(x)=a} where a {\displaystyle \textstyle a} is

10701-441: The next layer. They can be pooling , where a group of neurons in one layer connects to a single neuron in the next layer, thereby reducing the number of neurons in that layer. Neurons with only such connections form a directed acyclic graph and are known as feedforward networks . Alternatively, networks that allow connections between neurons in the same or previous layers are known as recurrent networks . A hyperparameter

10824-401: The nodes connected by links take in some data and use it to perform specific operations and tasks on the data. Each link has a weight, determining the strength of one node's influence on another, allowing weights to choose the signal between neurons. ANNs are composed of artificial neurons which are conceptually derived from biological neurons . Each artificial neuron has inputs and produces

10947-412: The other focused on the application of neural networks to artificial intelligence . In the late 1940s, D. O. Hebb proposed a learning hypothesis based on the mechanism of neural plasticity that became known as Hebbian learning . It was used in many early neural networks, such as Rosenblatt's perceptron and the Hopfield network . Farley and Clark (1954) used computational machines to simulate

11070-465: The other hand, originated from efforts to model information processing in biological systems through the framework of connectionism . Unlike the von Neumann model, connectionist computing does not separate memory and processing. Warren McCulloch and Walter Pitts (1943) considered a non-learning computational model for neural networks. This model paved the way for research to split into two approaches. One approach focused on biological processes while

11193-436: The output (almost certainly a cat) and the correct answer (cat) is small. Learning attempts to reduce the total of the differences across the observations. Most learning models can be viewed as a straightforward application of optimization theory and statistical estimation . The learning rate defines the size of the corrective steps that the model takes to adjust for errors in each observation. A high learning rate shortens

11316-412: The overall result is significant in real world terms. For example, in a large study of a drug it may be shown that the drug has a statistically significant but very small beneficial effect, such that the drug is unlikely to help the patient noticeably. Although in principle the acceptable level of statistical significance may be subject to debate, the significance level is the largest p-value that allows

11439-401: The paradigm of unsupervised learning are in general estimation problems; the applications include clustering , the estimation of statistical distributions , compression and filtering . In applications such as playing video games, an actor takes a string of actions, receiving a generally unpredictable response from the environment after each one. The goal is to win the game, i.e., generate

11562-426: The parameters of the network. During the training phase, ANNs learn from labeled training data by iteratively updating their parameters to minimize a defined loss function . This method allows the network to generalize to unseen data. Today's deep neural networks are based on early work in statistics over 200 years ago. The simplest kind of feedforward neural network (FNN) is a linear network, which consists of

11685-427: The past. In 1982 a recurrent neural network, with an array architecture (rather than a multilayer perceptron architecture), named Crossbar Adaptive Array used direct recurrent connections from the output to the supervisor (teaching ) inputs. In addition of computing actions (decisions), it computed internal state evaluations (emotions) of the consequence situations. Eliminating the external supervisor, it introduced

11808-415: The population data. Numerical descriptors include mean and standard deviation for continuous data (like income), while frequency and percentage are more useful in terms of describing categorical data (like education). When a census is not feasible, a chosen subset of the population called a sample is studied. Once a sample that is representative of the population is determined, data is collected for

11931-544: The population. Sampling theory is part of the mathematical discipline of probability theory . Probability is used in mathematical statistics to study the sampling distributions of sample statistics and, more generally, the properties of statistical procedures . The use of any statistical method is valid when the system or population under consideration satisfies the assumptions of the method. The difference in point of view between classic probability theory and sampling theory is, roughly, that probability theory starts from

12054-494: The problem of how to analyze big data . When full census data cannot be collected, statisticians collect sample data by developing specific experiment designs and survey samples . Statistics itself also provides tools for prediction and forecasting through statistical models . To use a sample as a guide to an entire population, it is important that it truly represents the overall population. Representative sampling assures that inferences and conclusions can safely extend from

12177-466: The publication of Natural and Political Observations upon the Bills of Mortality by John Graunt . Early applications of statistical thinking revolved around the needs of states to base policy on demographic and economic data, hence its stat- etymology . The scope of the discipline of statistics broadened in the early 19th century to include the collection and analysis of data in general. Today, statistics

12300-615: The reactions of the environment to these patterns. Excellent image quality is achieved by Nvidia 's StyleGAN (2018) based on the Progressive GAN by Tero Karras et al. Here, the GAN generator is grown from small to large scale in a pyramidal fashion. Image generation by GAN reached popular success, and provoked discussions concerning deepfakes . Diffusion models (2015) eclipsed GANs in generative modeling since then, with systems such as DALL·E 2 (2022) and Stable Diffusion (2022). In 2014,

12423-461: The same procedure to determine if the manipulation has modified the values of the measurements. In contrast, an observational study does not involve experimental manipulation . Instead, data are gathered and correlations between predictors and response are investigated. While the tools of data analysis work best on data from randomized studies , they are also applied to other kinds of data—like natural experiments and observational studies —for which

12546-439: The sample data to draw inferences about the population represented while accounting for randomness. These inferences may take the form of answering yes/no questions about the data ( hypothesis testing ), estimating numerical characteristics of the data ( estimation ), describing associations within the data ( correlation ), and modeling relationships within the data (for example, using regression analysis ). Inference can extend to

12669-399: The sample members in an observational or experimental setting. Again, descriptive statistics can be used to summarize the sample data. However, drawing the sample contains an element of randomness; hence, the numerical descriptors from the sample are also prone to uncertainty. To draw meaningful conclusions about the entire population, inferential statistics are needed. It uses patterns in

12792-405: The sample to the population as a whole. A major problem lies in determining the extent that the sample chosen is actually representative. Statistics offers methods to estimate and correct for any bias within the sample and data collection procedures. There are also methods of experimental design that can lessen these issues at the outset of a study, strengthening its capability to discern truths about

12915-482: The sample to the population as a whole. An experimental study involves taking measurements of the system under study, manipulating the system, and then taking additional measurements using the same procedure to determine if the manipulation has modified the values of the measurements. In contrast, an observational study does not involve experimental manipulation. Two main statistical methods are used in data analysis : descriptive statistics , which summarize data from

13038-412: The sampling and analysis were repeated under the same conditions (yielding a different dataset), the interval would include the true (population) value in 95% of all possible cases. This does not imply that the probability that the true value is in the confidence interval is 95%. From the frequentist perspective, such a claim does not even make sense, as the true value is not a random variable . Either

13161-480: The self-learning method in neural networks. In cognitive psychology, the journal American Psychologist in early 1980's carried out a debate on relation between cognition and emotion. Zajonc in 1980 stated that emotion is computed first and is independent from cognition, while Lazarus in 1982 stated that cognition is computed first and is inseparable from emotion. In 1982 the Crossbar Adaptive Array gave

13284-530: The state of the art was training "very deep neural network" with 20 to 30 layers. Stacking too many layers led to a steep reduction in training accuracy, known as the "degradation" problem. In 2015, two techniques were developed to train very deep networks: the highway network was published in May 2015, and the residual neural network (ResNet) in December 2015. ResNet behaves like an open-gated Highway Net. During

13407-408: The statistic, though, may have unknown parameters. Consider now a function of the unknown parameter: an estimator is a statistic used to estimate such function. Commonly used estimators include sample mean , unbiased sample variance and sample covariance . A random variable that is a function of the random sample and of the unknown parameter, but whose probability distribution does not depend on

13530-422: The structure and function of biological neural networks in animal brains . An ANN consists of connected units or nodes called artificial neurons , which loosely model the neurons in the brain. These are connected by edges , which model the synapses in the brain. Each artificial neuron receives signals from connected neurons, then processes them and sends a signal to other connected neurons. The "signal"

13653-540: The training time, but with lower ultimate accuracy, while a lower learning rate takes longer, but with the potential for greater accuracy. Optimizations such as Quickprop are primarily aimed at speeding up error minimization, while other improvements mainly try to increase reliability. In order to avoid oscillation inside the network such as alternating connection weights, and to improve the rate of convergence, refinements use an adaptive learning rate that increases or decreases as appropriate. The concept of momentum allows

13776-420: The true value is or is not within the given interval. However, it is true that, before any data are sampled and given a plan for how to construct the confidence interval, the probability is 95% that the yet-to-be-calculated interval will cover the true value: at this point, the limits of the interval are yet-to-be-observed random variables . One approach that does yield an interval that can be interpreted as having

13899-416: The two sided interval is built violating symmetry around the estimate. Sometimes the bounds for a confidence interval are reached asymptotically and these are used to approximate the true bounds. Statistics rarely give a simple Yes/No type answer to the question under analysis. Interpretation often comes down to the level of statistical significance applied to the numbers and often refers to the probability of

14022-485: The unknown parameter is called a pivotal quantity or pivot. Widely used pivots include the z-score , the chi square statistic and Student's t-value . Between two estimators of a given parameter, the one with lower mean squared error is said to be more efficient . Furthermore, an estimator is said to be unbiased if its expected value is equal to the true value of the unknown parameter being estimated, and asymptotically unbiased if its expected value converges at

14145-620: The use of sample size in frequency analysis. Although the term statistic was introduced by the Italian scholar Girolamo Ghilini in 1589 with reference to a collection of facts and information about a state, it was the German Gottfried Achenwall in 1749 who started using the term as a collection of quantitative information, in the modern use for this science. The earliest writing containing statistics in Europe dates back to 1663, with

14268-435: The use of larger networks, particularly in image and visual recognition problems, which became known as "deep learning". Radial basis function and wavelet networks were introduced in 2013. These can be shown to offer best approximation properties and have been applied in nonlinear system identification and classification applications. Generative adversarial network (GAN) ( Ian Goodfellow et al., 2014) became state of

14391-432: The weights. The weight updates can be done via stochastic gradient descent or other methods, such as extreme learning machines , "no-prop" networks, training without backtracking, "weightless" networks, and non-connectionist neural networks . Machine learning is commonly separated into three main learning paradigms, supervised learning , unsupervised learning and reinforcement learning . Each corresponds to

14514-462: The world. Fisher's most important publications were his 1918 seminal paper The Correlation between Relatives on the Supposition of Mendelian Inheritance (which was the first to use the statistical term, variance ), his classic 1925 work Statistical Methods for Research Workers and his 1935 The Design of Experiments , where he developed rigorous design of experiments models. He originated

14637-465: Was actually introduced in 1962 by Rosenblatt, but he did not know how to implement this, although Henry J. Kelley had a continuous precursor of backpropagation in 1960 in the context of control theory . In 1970, Seppo Linnainmaa published the modern form of backpropagation in his master thesis (1970). G.M. Ostrovski et al. republished it in 1971. Paul Werbos applied backpropagation to neural networks in 1982 (his 1974 PhD thesis, reprinted in

14760-434: Was introduced in 1987 by Alex Waibel to apply CNN to phoneme recognition. It used convolutions, weight sharing, and backpropagation. In 1988, Wei Zhang applied a backpropagation-trained CNN to alphabet recognition. In 1989, Yann LeCun et al. created a CNN called LeNet for recognizing handwritten ZIP codes on mail. Training required 3 days. In 1990, Wei Zhang implemented a CNN on optical computing hardware. In 1991,

14883-558: Was introduced in neural networks learning. Deep learning architectures for convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with convolutional layers and downsampling layers and weight replication began with the Neocognitron introduced by Kunihiko Fukushima in 1979, though not trained by backpropagation. Backpropagation is an efficient application of the chain rule derived by Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz in 1673 to networks of differentiable nodes. The terminology "back-propagating errors"

15006-441: Was neuroscience. The word "recurrent" is used to describe loop-like structures in anatomy. In 1901, Cajal observed "recurrent semicircles" in the cerebellar cortex . Hebb considered "reverberating circuit" as an explanation for short-term memory. The McCulloch and Pitts paper (1943) considered neural networks that contains cycles, and noted that the current activity of such networks can be affected by activity indefinitely far in

15129-437: Was published in 1967 by Shun'ichi Amari . In computer experiments conducted by Amari's student Saito, a five layer MLP with two modifiable layers learned internal representations to classify non-linearily separable pattern classes. Subsequent developments in hardware and hyperparameter tunings have made end-to-end stochastic gradient descent the currently dominant training technique. In 1969, Kunihiko Fukushima introduced

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