Defunct
54-560: Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922 – July 7, 1983) was an American physicist and a founding member of the Hudson Institute , regarded as one of the preeminent futurists of the latter part of the twentieth century. He originally came to prominence as a military strategist and systems theorist while employed at the RAND Corporation . He analyzed the likely consequences of nuclear war and recommended ways to improve survivability during
108-534: A "socialist in economics, a liberal in politics, and a conservative in culture." Bell is best known for his contributions to post-industrialism . His most influential books are, The End of Ideology (1960), The Cultural Contradictions of Capitalism (1976), and The Coming of Post-Industrial Society (1973). Two of his books, the End of Ideology and the Cultural Contradictions of Capitalism , were listed by
162-780: A Lifetime Achievement Award from the American Sociological Association in 1992, and the Talcott Parsons Prize for the Social Sciences from the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 1993. He was given the Tocqueville Award by the French government in 1995. Bell was a director of Suntory Foundation and a scholar in residence of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Bell once described himself as
216-511: A custom-built office space on Pennsylvania Avenue , near the U.S. Capitol and the White House . The new LEED-certified offices were designed by FOX Architects . The Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe presided over the opening of the new offices. Vice President Mike Pence used the institute as his venue for a major policy speech concerning China on October 4, 2018. In 2021, Pompeo and Elaine Chao , Secretary of Transportation in
270-547: A project on the implications of the digital era for American society. In 1990, Daniels quit to become vice president of corporate affairs at Eli Lilly and Company . He was succeeded as CEO by Leslie Lenkowsky, a social scientist, and former consultant to Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan . Under Lenkowsky, Hudson emphasized domestic and social policy. During the early 1990s, the institute did work concerning education reform and applied research on charter schools and school choice . Also in 1990, Hudson Institute spun off
324-633: A subsidiary non-profit organization that took the name the Discovery Institute . At the initiative of Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson , two members of Hudson were in the small planning group that designed the Wisconsin Works welfare-to-work program. Hudson also helped fund the planning and evaluated the results. A version was adopted nationwide in the 1996 federal welfare-reform legislation signed by President Bill Clinton . In 2001, President George W. Bush 's initiative on charitable choice
378-613: A well-financed research organization suggests that, though organic food accounts for only 1 percent of food sales in the United States, the conventional food industry is worried". Another employee of the institute, Michael Fumento , was revealed to have received funding from Monsanto for his 1999 book Bio-Evolution. Monsanto's spokesman said: "It's our practice, that if we're dealing with an organization like this, that any funds we're giving should be unrestricted." Hudson's CEO and President Kenneth R. Weinstein told BusinessWeek that he
432-490: A young government lawyer who had been Kahn's RAND colleague, and New York attorney Oscar Ruebhausen, Kahn founded the Hudson Institute on July 20, 1961. Kahn has been described as Hudson's driving intellect while Singer developed the institute's organization. Ruebhausen was an advisor to New York governor Nelson Rockefeller . Hudson's initial research projects largely represented Kahn's personal interests, which included
486-918: Is funded by donations from individuals, foundations, and corporations. Notable funders of the Institute include the Silicon Valley Community Foundation , the Sarah Scaife Foundation , and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation . As of 2021, the organization reported revenue of over $ 37m with under $ 20m in expenses and an endowment of $ 81m. Hudson Institute has accepted $ 7.9m from Donors Trust . It has received $ 25,000 from Exxon Mobil since 1998 and less than $ 100,000 from Koch family foundations , both of which actively minimize climate change. The New York Times commented on Dennis Avery's attacks on organic farming: "The attack on organic food by
540-637: Is the Senior Fellow and Director. Hudson offers two annual awards, the Herman Kahn Award and the Global Leadership Awards. Past Hudson Institute honorees include Nikki Haley , Paul Ryan , Mike Pence , Mike Pompeo , Ronald Reagan , Henry Kissinger , Rupert Murdoch , Dick Cheney , Joseph Lieberman , Benjamin Netanyahu , David Petraeus , and Shinzo Abe . Hudson Institute
594-587: Is to threaten." Kahn also inspired the character of Professor Groeteschele ( Walter Matthau ) in the 1964 film Fail Safe . Outside physics and statistics, works written by Kahn include: Works published by the RAND Corporation involving Kahn: Hudson Institute Hudson Institute is an American conservative think tank based in Washington, D.C. It was founded in 1961 in Croton-on-Hudson, New York , by futurist Herman Kahn and his colleagues at
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#1732872425396648-549: The Times Literary Supplement as among the 100 most important books in the second half of the twentieth century. Besides Bell, only Isaiah Berlin , Claude Lévi-Strauss , Albert Camus , George Orwell , and Hannah Arendt had two books so listed. In The End of Ideology (1960), Bell suggests that the older grand humanistic ideologies, derived from the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, are exhausted and that new more parochial ideologies will soon arise. With
702-553: The Cold War . Kahn posited the idea of a "winnable" nuclear exchange in his 1960 book On Thermonuclear War for which he was one of the historical inspirations for the title character of Stanley Kubrick 's classic black comedy film satire Dr. Strangelove . In his commentary for Fail Safe , director Sidney Lumet remarked that the Professor Groeteschele character is also based on Herman Kahn. Kahn's theories contributed to
756-399: The RAND Corporation . Kahn was a physicist and military consultant known for envisioning nuclear war scenarios. The institute's research branched out from the military into various areas including economics, health, education, and gambling. Kahn died in 1983 and the institute moved to Indianapolis the year after. The institute helped design Wisconsin 's influential workfare program in
810-728: The United States Army in May 1943, serving during the Burma campaign in World War II in a non-combat capacity as a telephone lineman . He received a Bachelor of Science at UCLA and briefly attended Caltech to pursue a doctorate before dropping out with a Master of Science due to financial constraints. He joined the RAND Corporation as a mathematician after being recruited by fellow physicist Samuel Cohen . Kahn's major contributions were
864-507: The " Doomsday Machine ", a device which would immediately cause the destruction of the entire planet in the event of a nuclear attack. Both the name and the concept of the weapon are drawn from the text of On Thermonuclear War . Louis Menand observes, "In Kahn’s book, the Doomsday Machine is an example of the sort of deterrent that appeals to the military mind but that is dangerously destabilizing. Since nations are not suicidal, its only use
918-917: The 1970s for reasons including increased competition from other think tanks for government grants. It turned to grants from corporations such as IBM and Mobil . In his 1982 book The Coming Boom , Kahn argued that pro-growth tax and fiscal policies, information technology , and developments by the energy industry would make possible an unprecedented prosperity in the Western world by the early 21st century. Kahn also foresaw unconventional extraction techniques like hydraulic fracturing . Within 20 years, Hudson had offices in Bonn , Paris , Brussels , Montreal and Tokyo . Other research projects were related to South Korea , Singapore , Australia and Latin America . After Kahn's sudden death at age 61 on July 7, 1983, Hudson
972-458: The Fifties (a 1960 essay collection), instead of a conventional doctoral dissertation . Bell began his professional life as a journalist, being managing editor of The New Leader magazine (1941–1945), labor editor of Fortune (1948–1958), and later, co-editor (with his college friend Irving Kristol ) of The Public Interest magazine (1965–1973). In the late 1940s, Bell was an Instructor in
1026-599: The Hudson Institute, where she accepted the institute's Global Leadership Award. In response to the award event, the Foreign Ministry of China imposed sanctions on the institute, its Board of Trustees Chair Sarah May Stern, and its President and CEO John P. Walters . European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen chose the Hudson Institute to host a major address in October 2023 where she defended Israel's right to defend itself following Palestinian terror attacks . In
1080-461: The RAND Corporation, Kahn had given a series of lectures at Princeton University on scenarios related to nuclear war . In 1960, Princeton University Press published On Thermonuclear War , a book-length expansion of Kahn's lecture notes. Major controversies ensued, and Kahn and RAND parted ways. Kahn moved to Croton-on-Hudson, New York , intending to establish a new think tank that was less hierarchical and bureaucratic. Along with Max Singer,
1134-575: The Reality" (1952), "Japanese Notebook" (1958), "Ethics and Evil: Frameworks for Twenty-First Century Culture" (2005), and "The Reconstruction of Liberal Education: A Foundational Syllabus" (2011). Bell received honorary degrees from Harvard, the University of Chicago , and fourteen other universities in the United States, as well as from Edinburgh Napier University and Keio University in Japan . He also received
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#17328724253961188-641: The Social Sciences in the College of the University of Chicago . During the 1950s, it was close to the Congress for Cultural Freedom . Subsequently, he taught sociology, first at Columbia (1959–1969) and then at Harvard until his retirement in 1990. He was elected a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 1964 and a member of the American Philosophical Society in 1978. Bell also
1242-584: The Soviet Union had to be convinced that the United States had second-strike capability in order to leave the Politburo in no doubt that even a perfectly coordinated massive attack would guarantee a measure of retaliation that would leave them devastated as well: At the minimum, an adequate deterrent for the United States must provide an objective basis for a Soviet calculation that would persuade them that, no matter how skillful or ingenious they were, an attack on
1296-465: The Trump administration, joined the institute. In January 2021, John P. Walters was appointed president and CEO of the Hudson Institute. Walters succeeded Kenneth R. Weinstein , who became the first Walter P. Stern Distinguished Fellow. Former U.S. attorney general William P. Barr joined as a distinguished fellow in 2022. On March 30, 2023, President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan attended an event held by
1350-403: The United States would lead to a very high risk if not certainty of large-scale destruction to Soviet civil society and military forces. In 1962, Kahn published a 16-step escalation ladder. By 1965 he had developed this into a 44-step ladder. In 1961, Kahn, Max Singer and Oscar Ruebhausen founded the Hudson Institute , a think tank initially located in Croton-on-Hudson, New York , where Kahn
1404-406: The United States. In the book, he claimed that Japan would pursue obtaining nuclear weapons and that it would pass the United States in per-capita income by 1990, and likely equal it in gross national product by 2000. During the mid-1970s, when South Korea 's GDP per capita was one of the lowest in the world, Kahn predicted that the country would become one of the top 10 most powerful countries in
1458-586: The development of the nuclear strategy of the United States. Kahn was born in Bayonne, New Jersey , as one of three sons to Yetta (née Koslowsky) and Abraham Kahn, a tailor. His parents were Jewish immigrants from Poland . He was raised in the Bronx , then in Los Angeles following his parents' divorce in 1932. Raised Jewish, he later identified as an atheist. Kahn graduated from Fairfax High School in 1940 and enlisted in
1512-582: The document contains a list called "One Hundred Technical Innovations Very Likely in the Last Third of the Twentieth Century". The first ten predictions were: In Kahn's view, capitalism and technology held nearly boundless potential for progress, while the colonization of space lay in the near, not the distant, future. Kahn's 1976 book The Next 200 Years , written with William Brown and Leon Martel, presented an optimistic scenario of economic conditions in
1566-508: The domestic and military use of nuclear power and scenario planning exercises about policy options and their possible outcomes. The use of the word scenario in such exercises had been adapted from Hollywood storytelling as a more dignified word than "screenplay", and Kahn was an enthusiastic practitioner. Kahn and his colleagues made pioneering contributions to nuclear deterrence theory and strategy during this period. Hudson's detailed analyses of "ladders of escalation" and reports on
1620-442: The economic sphere, for hard-working, productive individuals. Bell articulates this through his "three realms" methodology, which divides modern society into the cultural, economic, and political spheres. Bell's concern is that, with the growth of the welfare state throughout the post-war years, more and more of the population demand that the state fulfil the hedonistic desires which the cultural sphere encourages. That dovetails with
1674-682: The likely consequences of limited and unlimited nuclear exchanges, eventually published as Thinking About the Unthinkable in 1962 and On Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios in 1965, were influential within the Kennedy administration. They helped the institute win its first major research contract from the Office of Civil Defense at the Pentagon. Meanwhile, in popular culture, Dr. Strangelove in 1964 borrowed many lines from Kahn's On Thermonuclear War, and
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1728-766: The methods of Kahn, Hudson and RAND also inspired the 1967 satirical book The Report From Iron Mountain , depicting a supposedly secret study on the dangers of peace. Kahn did not want Hudson limited to defense-related research, and along with Singer, he recruited a staff from diverse academic backgrounds. Hudson also involved a wide range of consultants for analysis and policy, including French philosopher Raymond Aron , African-American novelist Ralph Ellison , political scientist Henry Kissinger , conceptual artist James Lee Byars , and social scientist Daniel Bell . Its focus expanded to include geopolitics , economics, demography , anthropology , science and technology, education, and urban planning . Kahn in 1962 predicted
1782-459: The mid-1990s. Hudson relocated to Washington, D.C., in 2004. It has been noted for work with governments and industries including defense and agribusiness . Hudson Institute was founded in 1961 by Herman Kahn , Max Singer, and Oscar M. Ruebhausen . Kahn was a Cold War icon, often interviewed in magazines, who was purported to have the highest IQ on record and partly inspired the 1964 movie Dr. Strangelove . In 1960, while employed at
1836-440: The ongoing requirement for the state to maintain the kind of strong economic environment conducive to continual growth. For Bell, the competing, contradictory demands place excessive strain on the state that was manifest in the economic turbulence, fiscal pressure, and political upheaval characteristic of the 1970s. Written at a time of significant shifts in U.S. politics, The Cultural Contradictions of Capitalism offers reasons for
1890-470: The post-industrial society would replace the industrial society as the dominant system. There are three components to a post-industrial society, according to Bell: Bell also conceptually differentiates between three aspects of the post-industrial society: data, or information describing the empirical world; information, or the organization of that data into meaningful systems and patterns such as statistical analysis; and knowledge, which Bell conceptualizes as
1944-575: The rise of Japan as the world's second-largest economy and developed close ties to politicians and corporate leaders there. Hudson Institute used scenario-planning techniques to forecast long-term developments and was noted for its future studies. In 1967, Hudson published The Year 2000 , a bestselling book commissioned by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences . Many of the predictions proved correct, including technological developments like portable telephones and network-linked home and office computers. In 1970, The Emerging Japanese Superstate
1998-552: The rise of affluent welfare states and institutionalized bargaining between different groups, Bell maintains, revolutionary movements that aim to overthrow liberal democracy will no longer be able to attract the working classes. In The Coming of Post-Industrial Society: A Venture in Social Forecasting (1973), Bell outlined a new kind of society, the post-industrial society . He argued that post-industrialism would be information -led and service -oriented. Bell also argued that
2052-728: The several strategies he developed during the Cold War to contemplate "the unthinkable" – namely, nuclear warfare – by using applications of game theory . Kahn is often cited (with Pierre Wack ) as a father of scenario planning . Kahn argued for deterrence and believed that if the Soviet Union believed that the United States had a second strike capability then it would offer greater deterrence, which he wrote in his paper titled "The Nature and Feasibility of War and Deterrence". The bases of his work were systems theory and game theory as applied to economics and military strategy. Kahn argued that for deterrence to succeed,
2106-509: The speech, she voiced EU solidarity with Israel and drew parallels between acts of terror by Hamas and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin . The speech was coordinated with the White House as President Joe Biden urged Congress to approve additional aid to support Ukraine and Israel as key allies of the United States. The Institute provides several briefing services, such as the Keystone Defense Initiative, where Rebecca Heinrichs
2160-405: The use of information to make judgments. Bell discussed the manuscript of The Coming of Post-Industrial Society with Talcott Parsons before its publication. In The Cultural Contradictions of Capitalism (1976), Bell contends that the developments of twentieth-century capitalism have led to a contradiction between the cultural sphere of consumerist instant self-gratification and the demand, in
2214-541: The world by the year 2000. In his last year, 1983, Kahn wrote approvingly of Ronald Reagan 's political agenda in The Coming Boom: Economic, Political, and Social and bluntly derided Jonathan Schell 's claims about the long-term effects of nuclear war. On July 7 that year, he died of a stroke, aged 61. His wife was Rosalie "Jane" Kahn. He and Jane had two children, David and Debbie. Along with John von Neumann , Edward Teller and Wernher von Braun , Kahn
Herman Kahn - Misplaced Pages Continue
2268-454: The year 2176. He also wrote a number of books extrapolating the future of the American, Japanese and Australian economies and several works on systems theory, including the well-received 1957 monograph Techniques of System Analysis . In 1970, Kahn published the book The Emerging Japanese Superstate in which he claimed that Japan would play a large role in the world equal to the Soviet Union and
2322-426: Was an American sociologist, writer, editor, and professor at Harvard University , best known for his contributions to the study of post-industrialism . He has been described as "one of the leading American intellectuals of the postwar era". His three best known works are The End of Ideology (1960), The Coming of Post-Industrial Society (1973), and The Cultural Contradictions of Capitalism (1976). Daniel Bell
2376-402: Was an inspiration for the character "Dr. Strangelove" in the eponymous film by Stanley Kubrick released in 1964. After Kubrick read Kahn's book On Thermonuclear War , he began a correspondence with him which led to face-to-face discussions between Kubrick and Kahn. In the film, Dr. Strangelove refers to a report on the Doomsday Machine by the "BLAND Corporation". Kahn gave Kubrick the idea for
2430-433: Was based on Hudson's research into social-service programs administered by faith-based organizations. Other Hudson research from this period included 1987's "Workforce 2000", the "Blue Ribbon Commission on Hungary " (1990) "International Baltic Economic Commission" (1991–93), on market-oriented reforms in the newly independent states of Eastern Europe, and the 1997 follow-up study "Workforce 2020". In 1997, Lenkowsky
2484-523: Was born in 1919 in the Lower East Side of Manhattan in New York City . His parents, Benjamin and Anna Bolotsky, were Jewish immigrants, originally from Eastern Europe. They worked in the garment industry. His father died when he was eight months old, and he grew up poor, living with relatives along with his mother and his older brother Leo. When he was 13 years old, the family's name
2538-515: Was changed from Bolotsky to Bell. Bell was graduated from Stuyvesant High School . He received a bachelor's degree from the City College of New York in 1938, and completed graduate work at Columbia University during the 1938–1939 academic year. He received a PhD in sociology from Columbia in 1961 after he was permitted to submit The End of Ideology: On the Exhaustion of Political Ideas in
2592-914: Was delivered to the House Armed Services subcommittee without disclosing that Huntington Ingalls had paid for part of the report. Hudson acknowledged the misconduct, describing it as a "mistake". The institute, which publishes frequent reports concerning China, has received funding from the Taiwanese government as have other prominent think tanks. Defunct Newspapers Journals TV channels Websites Other Economics Gun rights Identity politics Nativist Religion Daniel Bell Newspapers Journals TV channels Websites Other Economics Gun rights Identity politics Nativist Religion Watchdog groups Youth/student groups Miscellaneous Other Daniel Bell (May 10, 1919 – January 25, 2011)
2646-500: Was living at the time. He recruited sociologist Daniel Bell , political philosopher Raymond Aron and novelist Ralph Ellison (author of the 1952 classic Invisible Man ). In 1967, Herman Kahn and Anthony J. Wiener published The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years , which included contributions from staff members of the Hudson Institute and an introduction by Daniel Bell . Table XVIII in
2700-496: Was published. After the Club of Rome 's 1972 report The Limits to Growth produced alarm about the possibility that population growth and resource depletion might result in a 21st-century global "collapse", Hudson responded with its own analysis, The Next 200 Years , which concluded instead that scientific and practical innovations were likely to significantly improve worldwide living standards. Hudson struggled with funding problems in
2754-669: Was restructured. Recruited by the City of Indianapolis and the Lilly Endowment , Hudson relocated its headquarters to Indiana in 1984. In 1987, Mitch Daniels , a former aide to Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN) and President Ronald Reagan , was appointed CEO. William Eldridge Odom , former director of the National Security Agency , became Hudson's director of national security studies; economist Alan Reynolds became director of economic research. Technologist George Gilder led
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#17328724253962808-524: Was succeeded by Herbert London . After the September 11 attacks , Hudson emphasized international issues such as the Middle East , Latin America , and Islam . On June 1, 2004, Hudson relocated its headquarters to Washington, D.C. In 2012, Sarah May Stern became chairman of the board of trustees, and remains so to the present. In 2016, Hudson relocated from its McPherson Square headquarters to
2862-583: Was the visiting Pitt Professor of American History and Institutions at Cambridge University in 1987. He served as a member of the President's Commission on Technology in 1964–1965 and as a member of the President's Commission on a National Agenda for the 1980s in 1979. Bell served on the board of advisors for the Antioch Review , and published some of his most acclaimed essays in the magazine: "Crime as an American Way of Life" (1953), "Socialism: The Dream and
2916-427: Was uncertain if the payment should have been disclosed. "That's a good question, period," he said. The New York Times suggested Huntington Ingalls Industries had used the Hudson Institute to enhance the company's argument for more nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, at a cost of US$ 11 billion each. The Times alleged that a former naval officer was paid by Hudson to publish an analysis endorsing more funding. The report
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