129-754: Mike Galsworthy (born 1976) is the co-founder of Scientists for EU and Healthier IN the EU and a media commentator about the effects of Brexit on the scientific community in the United Kingdom , and is Chair of the European Movement UK . He is currently a visiting researcher at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and was previously Senior Research Associate in the Department of Applied Health Research, University College London (UCL). Galsworthy
258-448: A "divorce" bill of £39 billion for previous and long-term commitments. On 25 August 2019 it was reported that a British government legal team had advised that the amount due should a no-deal Brexit eventuate would be £9 billion and possibly as low as £7 billion. Analysis by Her Majesty's Treasury in 2016 predicted that a no-deal Brexit, whereby the UK left the EU and traded with
387-510: A report which accused the UK government of actively avoiding investigating whether Russia interfered with public opinion. The report did not pass judgement over whether Russian information operations had an impact on the result. Withdrawal from the European Union is governed by Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union . It was originally drafted by Lord Kerr of Kinlochard , and introduced by
516-582: A Brexit deal were now "touch and go". He had previously stated that the odds of a no-deal exit were "a million to one". On 28 August 2019, the Johnson ministry reopened negotiations on the withdrawal agreement, but set as a pre-condition that the Irish backstop must be scrapped before doing so, a condition to which the EU had declared it would not agree. On 30 October 2019, the day named as "exit day" in British legislation
645-498: A Eurosceptic political party, was formed in response to Maastricht in 1993. In 1997, Nigel Farage took over the leadership of the party as a right-of-centre, populist movement in England . Prior to 2013, the issue of EU membership never scored higher than 5% on surveys of voter priorities, polling just 6% in 2013 and 11% in 2014. However, an increasing proportion of voters viewed immigration and asylum as of key importance. By adopting
774-491: A Leave vote and of the "two-year time period to negotiate the arrangements for exit." After the original wording for the referendum question was challenged, the government agreed to change the official referendum question to "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?" In the referendum 51.89% voted in favour of leaving the EU (Leave), and 48.11% voted in favour of remaining
903-499: A chartered plane would be available for provisioning if necessary. Each clinic and hospital had to answer 60 questions each day as part of a sitrep (Situation Report) to confirm they would have been able to continue to manage. On 26 March 2019 the Minister for the DHSC indicated it was prepared for a no-deal exit. In the event of a no-deal exit, EU energy law would have no longer applied to
1032-414: A hardline anti-immigration platform and conflating the issue with EU membership, UKIP was able to achieve electoral success, reaching third place in the UK during the 2004 European elections , second place in the 2009 European elections and first place in the 2014 European elections , with 27.5% of the total vote. This was the first time since the 1910 general election that any party other than Labour or
1161-520: A liberalisation of rules such that in the event of a no-deal Brexit EU citizens arriving and joining the Settlement Register by the end of 2020 would be able to remain in the UK until 31 December 2023. The economies of both parts of Ireland were expected to be seriously affected by a no-deal Brexit. On 28 July 2019, Groupe PSA (owners of Vauxhall Motors ) told the Financial Times that
1290-457: A member and 30% backed withdrawal. In 2012, Prime Minister David Cameron initially rejected calls for a referendum on the UK's EU membership, but then suggested the possibility of a future referendum to endorse his proposed renegotiation of Britain's relationship with the rest of the EU. According to the BBC , "The prime minister acknowledged the need to ensure the UK's [renegotiated] position within
1419-514: A member of the EU (Remain). After this result, Cameron resigned on 13 July 2016, with Theresa May becoming Prime Minister after a leadership contest . A petition calling for a second referendum attracted more than four million signatures, but was rejected by the government on 9 July. A 2017 study published in the journal Economic Policy showed that the Leave vote tended to be greater in areas which had lower incomes and high unemployment ,
SECTION 10
#17328851170721548-654: A member state such as the UK would have to get permission from the European Commission and then from the European Council , which is composed of the heads of government of every member state. In a speech to the House of Commons on 22 February 2016, Cameron announced a referendum date of 23 June 2016, and commented on the renegotiation settlement. He spoke of an intention to trigger the Article 50 process immediately following
1677-515: A no-deal Brexit could, if Brexit makes it unprofitable, result in the closure of its Ellesmere Port plant, with serious consequential impact on local suppliers. On 30 July 2019, Helen Roberts of the National Sheep Association in Wales told The Guardian that it would be "absolutely catastrophic" to leave with no-deal and could lead to civil unrest among sheep farmers. Minette Batters ,
1806-432: A previous promise to hold a referendum on ratifying the abandoned European Constitution , which was never held. After promising to hold a second membership referendum if his government was elected, Conservative prime minister David Cameron held this referendum in 2016. Cameron, who had campaigned to remain, resigned after the result and was succeeded by Theresa May . On 29 March 2017, the British government formally began
1935-461: A proposed second referendum . On 14 March 2019, the British parliament voted for May to ask the EU to delay Brexit until June, and then later October. Having failed to get her agreement approved, May resigned as Prime Minister in July and was succeeded by Boris Johnson . He sought to replace parts of the agreement and vowed to leave the EU by the new deadline. On 17 October 2019, the British government and
2064-542: A referendum on Scottish independence . The result produced an unexpected hung parliament , the governing Conservatives gained votes and remained the largest party but nevertheless lost seats and their majority in the House of Commons. Labour gained significantly on votes and seats, retaining its position as the second-largest party. The Liberal Democrats gained six seats despite a slight decrease in vote share compared with 2015. The Green Party kept its single MP while also losing national vote share. Losing votes and seats were
2193-460: A referendum on British membership of the EU if his government were re-elected. Following the 2015 general election , which produced a small but unexpected overall majority for the governing Conservative Party, the promised referendum on continued EU membership was held on 23 June 2016. Notable supporters of the Remain campaign included Cameron, the future prime ministers Theresa May and Liz Truss , and
2322-513: A regional affair. Once the UK has left [the EU], it will alter the ability of non-EU countries to export to the UK market". According to UNCTAD a no-deal Brexit could have impacted third world countries, including in Africa. However, a no-deal Brexit could have provided gains to China. A no-deal Brexit could on one hand reduce EU exports to the UK by $ 34 billion and from Turkey by $ 2 billion, and on
2451-641: A relatively small impact on the overall result as England has a much larger population. There were also significant regional differences within England, with most of London returning a majority remain vote, alongside urban centres in northern England such as Manchester and Liverpool , which returned remain majorities of 60% and 58% respectively. Opposite trends appeared in industrial and post-industrial areas of Northern England , with areas such as North Lincolnshire and South Tyneside both heavily supporting leave. Opinion polls found that Leave voters believed leaving
2580-427: A strong tradition of manufacturing employment, and in which the population had fewer qualifications . It also tended to be greater where there was a large flow of Eastern European migrants (mainly low-skilled workers) into areas with a large share of native low-skilled workers. Those in lower social grades (especially the working class ) were more likely to vote Leave, while those in higher social grades (especially
2709-523: A suggestion that the British Government should come up with a viable alternative to the backstop, and on the same day the President of France Emmanuel Macron indicated that no deal was the most likely Brexit outcome due to the inability of the UK to accept the withdrawal agreement. At an interview with the BBC at the 45th G7 summit in late August 2019 Johnson suggested that the chances of achieving
SECTION 20
#17328851170722838-494: A withdrawal agreement been made during that year (2019). The IMF also predicted a 0.5% reduction in GDP relative to where it otherwise would have been for the rest of the EU by 2021 as a result of a no-deal Brexit. In June 2019 the Office of Budget Responsibility published analysis predicting that the economy would shrink by 2% of GDP by 2021 if a no-deal Brexit occurred during 2019, but where
2967-519: A work permit for each country visited. EU and British citizens with less than six months to a year on their passports may have been advised to renew them. Passports would not have been required between Ireland and the UK as they are in the common travel area . Citizens from the UK would have been unable to use the EU channels in EU airports: the EU channels at British airports would have been repurposed. An International Driving Licence and Green Card may have been required for British citizens to drive in
3096-478: Is affiliated with the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine as a visiting researcher. His research interests include health services research and science policy of the EU. Since 2012, Galsworthy has been involved in initiatives in science policy and grassroots pro- European Union activism. He works full-time for Scientists for EU. He was elected chair of the European Movement UK in March 2023. On 8 May 2015,
3225-475: Is getting worse." Polling conducted by YouGov supported these conclusions, showing that factors such as age, political party affiliation, education, and household income were the primary factors indicating how people would vote. For example, Conservative Party voters were 61% likely to vote leave, compared to Labour Party voters, who were 35% likely to vote leave. Age was one of the biggest factors affecting whether someone would vote leave, with 64% of people over
3354-517: Is to remain available for an Autumn Brexit. On 18 August 2019, a leak revealed that the policy continues to exist and is being updated. After Boris Johnson became British prime minister in July 2019, there were changes for Brexit planning. Under Michael Gove , significant additional emphasis and funding was given to no-deal preparations. As of 2 April 2019 the UK government had issued 16 publications indicating advice on road, rail, air and marine transport, most of which were applicable to
3483-527: The 1983 general election on a commitment to withdraw from the EC without a referendum. Following their heavy defeat in that election, Labour changed its policy. In 1985, the second Margaret Thatcher government ratified the Single European Act —the first major revision to the Treaty of Rome —without a referendum. In October 1990, under pressure from senior ministers and despite Thatcher's deep reservations,
3612-511: The Channel Tunnel and Channel ports with Operation Fennel used to manage overall traffic congestion in Kent. It was said in July 2019 that any issues with train operators and driver certifications (to operate/continue to operate cross-border train services) needed to be resolved. At the end of July 2019, in a statement headlined "Brexit and the UK haulage industry – no deal, no jobs, no food",
3741-524: The Electoral Commission , which subsequently issued a large number of fines. In February 2017, the main campaign group for the "Leave" vote, Leave.EU , was fined £50,000 for sending marketing messages without permission. In December 2017, the Electoral Commission fined two pro-EU groups, the Liberal Democrats (£18,000) and Open Britain (£1,250), for breaches of campaign finance rules during
3870-601: The European Communities (EC) – principally the European Economic Community (EEC) – and its continued membership was endorsed in the 1975 membership referendum . In the 1970s and 1980s, withdrawal from the EC was advocated mainly by the political left, e.g. in the Labour Party 's 1983 election manifesto. The 1992 Maastricht Treaty , which founded the EU, was ratified by the British parliament in 1993 but
3999-641: The European Union (EU). Following a referendum held in the UK on 23 June 2016, Brexit officially took place at 23:00 GMT on 31 January 2020 (00:00 1 February 2020 CET ). The UK, which joined the EU's precursors the European Communities (EC) on 1 January 1973, is the only member state to have withdrawn from the EU. Following Brexit, EU law and the Court of Justice of the European Union no longer have primacy over British laws . The European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 retains relevant EU law as domestic law , which
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4128-673: The June 2017 general election , which resulted in a hung parliament in which the Conservatives lost their majority but remained the largest party. This deadlock led to three extensions of the UK's Article 50 process . The deadlock was resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019 . In that election, Conservatives who campaigned in support of a "revised" withdrawal agreement led by Boris Johnson won an overall majority of 80 seats. After
4257-523: The London School of Economics , "Older and less-educated voters were more likely to vote 'leave' [...] A majority of white voters wanted to leave, but only 33% of Asian voters and 27% of black voters chose leave. [...] Leaving the European Union received support from across the political spectrum [...] Voting to leave the European Union was strongly associated with holding socially conservative political beliefs, opposing cosmopolitanism, and thinking life in Britain
4386-594: The President of France , Charles de Gaulle , who feared the UK would be a Trojan horse for US influence. Some time after de Gaulle resigned in 1969, the UK successfully applied for European Communities (EC) membership. Membership of the then EEC was thoroughly discussed at the long debate in the House of Commons in October 1971. It led to the decisive vote in favour of membership by 356 to 244. As historian Piers Ludlow observed,
4515-547: The Referendum Party in 1994 to contest the 1997 general election on a platform of providing a referendum on the nature of the UK's relationship with the rest of the EU. The party fielded candidates in 547 constituencies at that election, and won 810,860 votes—2.6% of the total votes cast —but failed to win a parliamentary seat because the vote was spread across the country. The Referendum Party disbanded following Goldsmith's death in 1997. . The UK Independence Party (UKIP),
4644-440: The Treaty of Lisbon which entered into force in 2009. The article states that any member state can withdraw "in accordance with its own constitutional requirements" by notifying the European Council of its intention to do so. The notification triggers a two-year negotiation period, in which the EU must "negotiate and conclude an agreement with [the leaving] State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of
4773-739: The Treaty of Paris in 1951, establishing the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC). The 1955 Messina Conference deemed that the ECSC was a success, and resolved to extend the concept further, thereby leading to the 1957 Treaties of Rome establishing the European Economic Community (EEC) and the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom). In 1967 , these became known as the European Communities (EC). The UK attempted to join in 1963 and 1967, but these applications were vetoed by
4902-582: The United Kingdom from the European Union Related: Women A no-deal Brexit (also called a clean-break Brexit ) was the potential withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) without a withdrawal agreement . Under Article 50 of the Maastricht Treaty , the Treaties of the European Union would have ceased to apply once a withdrawal agreement
5031-405: The upper middle class ) more likely to vote Remain. Studies found that the Leave vote tended to be higher in areas affected by economic decline, high rates of suicides and drug-related deaths, and austerity reforms introduced in 2010. Studies suggest that older people were more likely to vote Leave, and younger people more likely to vote Remain. According to Thomas Sampson, an economist at
5160-490: The (British) Road Haulage Association said that "A no-deal Brexit will create massive problems for international hauliers – whether UK or mainland Europe based". Aviation would have been particularly affected if the European Common Aviation Area and EU–US Open Skies Agreement no longer applied to the UK after a "no-deal" Brexit, since World Trade Organization rules did not cover that sector, implying that
5289-536: The 1971 parliamentary debate was of high quality and considered all issues. The British were not "misled and persuaded to accept membership in a narrow commercial entity without being aware that the EEC was a political project liable to develop in the future". The Conservative prime minister Edward Heath signed the Treaty of Accession in 1972. Parliament passed the European Communities Act later that year and
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5418-414: The British ambassador to the EU, delivered the invocation letter to European Council President Donald Tusk . This made 29 March 2019 the expected date that UK would leave EU. In April 2017, Theresa May called a snap general election, held on 8 June , in an attempt to "strengthen [her] hand" in the negotiations; The Conservative Party, Labour and UKIP made manifesto pledges to implement the referendum,
5547-574: The British fishing area to prevent fishing by non-British vessels. The EU had requested that, in the event of no-deal, short term access be provided to EU vessels, and Steve Barclay (Brexit Secretary) informed the Exiting the European Union Select Committee that the UK had agreed to stay in the common fisheries policy until at least 31 December 2019. In September 2018, DEFRA produced a report on Progress implementing EU Exit . Progress
5676-457: The Conservatives had taken the largest share of the vote in a nationwide election. This electoral success and internal pressure, including from many of the remaining Maastricht Rebels within the ruling Conservative party, put pressure on leader and Prime Minister David Cameron , as potential voter defections to UKIP threatened defeat in the 2015 United Kingdom general election . This threat
5805-406: The December 2019 election, the British parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement with the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Act 2020 . The UK left the EU at the end of 31 January 2020 CET (11 p.m. GMT ). This began a transition period that ended on 31 December 2020 CET (11 p.m. GMT), during which the UK and EU negotiated their future relationship. During the transition,
5934-445: The EC, believing them to be unfavourable, and then hold a referendum on whether to remain in the EC on the new terms. Labour again won the election (this time with a small majority), and in 1975 the UK held its first ever national referendum , asking whether the UK should remain in the EC. Despite significant division within the ruling Labour Party, all major political parties and the mainstream press supported continuing membership of
6063-495: The EC. On 5 June 1975, 67.2% of the electorate and all but two British counties and regions voted to stay in; support for the UK to leave the EC in 1975 appears unrelated to the support for Leave in the 2016 referendum. In 1979, the UK secured its first opt-out , although the expression was not contemporary; it was the only EEC country not to take part in the European Monetary System . The Labour Party campaigned in
6192-444: The EU agreed on a revised withdrawal agreement, with new arrangements for Northern Ireland. Parliament approved the agreement for further scrutiny, but rejected passing it into law before the 31 October deadline, and forced the government (through the " Benn Act ") to ask for a third Brexit delay. An early general election was then held on 12 December. The Conservatives won a large majority in that election, with Johnson declaring that
6321-400: The EU and 48.11 per cent voted to remain a member state, David Cameron resigned as Prime Minister. On 29 March 2017, the new British government led by Theresa May formally notified the EU of the country's intention to withdraw, beginning the process of Brexit negotiations . The withdrawal, originally scheduled for 29 March 2019, was delayed by the deadlock in the British parliament after
6450-528: The EU by October 2018. Negotiations commenced on 19 June 2017. Negotiating groups were established for three topics: the rights of EU citizens living in Britain and vice versa; Britain's outstanding financial obligations to the EU; and the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. In December 2017, a partial agreement was reached. It ensured that there would be no hard border in Ireland, protected
6579-560: The EU on the terms of departure and on future relations, completed under a Boris Johnson government, with government control remaining with the Conservative Party during this period. The negotiation process was both politically challenging and deeply divisive within the UK, leading to two snap elections in 2017 and 2019. One deal was overwhelmingly rejected by the British parliament , causing great uncertainty and leading to postponement of
SECTION 50
#17328851170726708-557: The EU only on WTO terms without any new deals being negotiated, would have resulted in a 7.5% decrease in GDP after 15 years for the UK (relative to where it would otherwise have been were the UK to have remained a member of the EU). In April 2019 the International Monetary Fund published analysis showing that, in the event of a no-deal Brexit occurring during 2019, the UK's GDP would be 3.5% smaller by 2021 than it would have been had
6837-408: The EU science programme offered "huge added value" to the UK and "the overwhelming balance of opinion is for remaining in." Following the referendum, Galsworthy's immediate priority was to document its impact on the UK science community. Around 350 scientists contacted Galsworthy in relation to the future of British science after Brexit , most of whom expressed concerns about the future of research in
6966-419: The EU was "more likely to bring about a better immigration system, improved border controls, a fairer welfare system, better quality of life, and the ability to control our own laws", while Remain voters believed EU membership "would be better for the economy, international investment, and the UK's influence in the world." Polls found that the main reasons people voted Leave were "the principle that decisions about
7095-486: The EU, the UK was part of the common fisheries policy which, among other things, allows fishermen from other EU countries to access British waters (and vice versa). In the event of no deal the British government had stated that, as the UK would no longer be bound by the common fisheries policy, it could deny access to EU Member States fishing vessels, and in September 2018 DEFRA reported that issues were expected in enforcing
7224-467: The EU. In February 2019, it was estimated that the number of customs declarations to be handled for goods leaving the UK would have risen from the current 55 million per year to 240 million. The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) analysed supply chain, organised stockpiles and additional refrigeration warehouse space. Medicine with limited shelf life cannot be stockpiled; arrangements were in place to prioritise medicines as key goods and
7353-462: The EU. The National Police Chiefs Council asked "prominent individuals" to avoid inciting anger and said 10,000 officers were ready for deployment in the UK in case of conflicts between citizens. A "temporary permissions regime" (TPR) was introduced so that in the event of no-deal, European Union banks, insurers and asset managers could simply notify British financial regulators to continue to serve British customers. A no-deal Brexit would have made
7482-631: The EU. Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen of the Centre for Economic Performance criticised this analysis as being based on outdated information and analytical models, and unjustified assumptions. A report prepared by the Central Bank of Ireland in August 2019 indicated that the City of London would be "largely unaffected" by a hard Brexit, even if it were to have an "adverse" impact on
7611-596: The Electoral Commission launched a probe into claims that Russia had attempted to sway public opinion over the referendum using social media platforms such as Twitter and Facebook. In February 2019, the parliamentary Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee called for an inquiry into "foreign influence, disinformation, funding, voter manipulation, and the sharing of data" in the Brexit vote. In July 2020, Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament published
7740-469: The European Union , which had previously been responsible for Brexit negotiations , was refocused to concentrate on no-deal planning, with an additional £1 billion in funding for preparations for a no-deal Brexit. Johnson appointed Michael Gove to the Cabinet with the responsibility for co-ordination of planning across Government Departments for a no-deal Brexit, declaring that Gove would "turbo-charge"
7869-707: The Good Friday Agreement, and indicated that policies such as the state pension triple lock and Winter Fuel Payments would be maintained. Prior to the negotiations, May said that the British government would not seek permanent single market membership , would end ECJ jurisdiction, seek a new trade agreement, end free movement of people and maintain the Common Travel Area with Ireland . The EU had adopted its negotiating directives in May, and appointed Michel Barnier as Chief Negotiator. The EU wished to perform
SECTION 60
#17328851170727998-507: The Labour manifesto differing in its approach to Brexit negotiations, such as unilaterally offering permanent residence to EU immigrants. The Liberal Democrat Party and the Green Party manifestos proposed a policy of remaining in the EU via a second referendum . The Scottish National Party (SNP) manifesto proposed a policy of waiting for the outcome of the Brexit negotiations and then holding
8127-581: The November 2018 withdrawal agreement , but the British parliament voted against ratifying it three times. The Labour Party wanted any agreement to maintain a customs union, while many Conservatives opposed the agreement's financial settlement , as well as the " Irish backstop " designed to prevent border controls between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland . The Liberal Democrats , Scottish National Party (SNP), and others sought to reverse Brexit through
8256-522: The Oxford Campaign for Independent Britain; "With hindsight, some see this as the start of the campaign for Brexit", the Financial Times later wrote. The vote to approve the Maastricht Treaty in 1993 triggered a strong Eurosceptic response, splitting the Conservative Party and leading to many past supporters forming alternative Eurosceptic parties. This included Sir James Goldsmith forming
8385-515: The Republic of Ireland held referendums to ratify the Maastricht Treaty. In accordance with Constitution of the United Kingdom , specifically that of parliamentary sovereignty , ratification in the UK was not subject to approval by referendum. Despite this, British constitutional historian Vernon Bogdanor wrote that there was "a clear constitutional rationale for requiring a referendum" because although MPs are entrusted with legislative power by
8514-646: The SNP, which lost 21 MPs, and UKIP, which suffered a −10.8% swing and lost its only MP. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Féin also made gains in votes and seats. On 26 June 2017, Conservatives and the DUP reached a confidence and supply agreement whereby the DUP would back the Conservatives in key votes in the House of Commons over the course of the parliament. The agreement included additional funding of £1 billion for Northern Ireland, highlighted mutual support for Brexit and national security, expressed commitment to
8643-420: The UK as it had proposed in the draft Brexit withdrawal agreement , though there would have been some variations. The British Government was hopeful this would be reciprocated for British nationals in the EU. The EU published a fact-sheet detailing information for British nationals in the EU. In August 2019, Boris Johnson communicated that he wanted the freedom of movement which allowed EU citizens to travel to
8772-422: The UK can amend or repeal. The EU and its institutions developed gradually after their establishment. Throughout the period of British membership, Eurosceptic groups had existed in the UK, opposing aspects of the EU and its predecessors. The Labour prime minister Harold Wilson 's pro-EC government held a referendum on continued EC membership in 1975 , in which 67.2 per cent of those voting chose to stay within
8901-402: The UK government to purchase beef, lamb and some crops with £500 million having been budgeted for this. The UK would have been able to make new international free trade deals straight away following a no-deal Brexit. Delivering a research study on the impact on worldwide exports to the UK, the director of international trade and commodities at UNCTAD considered that "Brexit is not only
9030-507: The UK joined Denmark and the Republic of Ireland in becoming a member on 1 January 1973, without referendum. During the 1970s and 1980s, the Labour Party was the more Eurosceptic of the two major parties, and the Conservatives the more Europhile. Labour won the February 1974 general election without a majority and then contested the subsequent October 1974 general election with a commitment to renegotiate Britain's terms of membership of
9159-550: The UK joined the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), with the pound sterling pegged to the deutschmark . Thatcher resigned as Prime Minister the following month, amid Conservative Party divisions arising partly from her increasingly Eurosceptic views. The UK was forced to withdraw from the ERM on Black Wednesday in September 1992, after the pound sterling came under pressure from currency speculation . Italy left
9288-494: The UK no longer party to the Motor Insurance Directive . According to Irish no deal preparedness plans, Green Cards would have been required by for British motorists wishing to travel to the EU (and vice versa) – an issue that will particularly affect the heavily traversed Irish border . As a consequence, one million Green Cards were sent to insurance companies and brokers in the Republic of Ireland alone, as part of
9417-531: The UK remained subject to EU law and remained part of the European Union Customs Union and the European single market . However, it was no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions. The withdrawal had been advocated by hard Eurosceptics and opposed by pro-Europeanists and soft Eurosceptics , with both sides of the argument spanning the political spectrum. In 1973, the UK joined
9546-408: The UK should be taken in the UK", and that leaving "offered the best chance for the UK to regain control over immigration and its own borders." The main reason people voted Remain was that "the risks of voting to leave the EU looked too great when it came to things like the economy, jobs and prices." Following the referendum, a series of irregularities related to campaign spending were investigated by
9675-428: The UK to be immediately stopped on 31 October. Those rules applicable 'til 31 October would have been replaced by new stricter non-stated rules. Metropolitan Police Deputy assistant commissioner Richard Martin stated that a no-deal exit would mean a loss of Europe-wide tools, databases and European Arrest Warrant , which would have limited the ability to detain foreign suspects in the UK and pursue British fugitives in
9804-466: The UK would leave the EU in early 2020. The withdrawal agreement was ratified by the UK on 23 January and by the EU on 30 January; it came into force on 31 January 2020. Following the referendum of 23 June 2016, many new pieces of Brexit-related jargon entered popular use. The word Brexit is a portmanteau of the phrase "British exit". According to the Oxford English Dictionary ,
9933-471: The UK's exit was not "disruptive or disorderly". Economists at think tank The Policy Exchange criticised the Treasury, IMF and OECD forecasts for their reliance on a gravity model with what they said were incorrect assumptions. Specifically, these forecasts relied on the comparison between firstly the average gain in trade between EU countries and secondly the average gain in trade between EU countries and
10062-424: The UK's preparations for a no-deal Brexit on 31 October. In August 2019, The Guardian reported that British diplomats would pull out from the EU's decision making meetings "within days", under plans being drawn up by Downing Street. That newspaper also said in the same month that any attempt to bypass MPs could create a constitutional crisis . On 21 August 2019, Angela Merkel offered and Boris Johnson accepted
10191-563: The UK's relationship with the European Aviation Safety Agency . EU—UK flights should not be affected for a time following a no-deal exit, subject to the EU and the UK respecting reciprocal rights in this area. Post-Brexit open skies agreements were reached with the US and Canada in November and December 2018 respectively and these would also have applied in a "no-deal" situation. The British National Audit Office (NAO) produced
10320-455: The UK. Continuity of supply would have been prioritised. For 12 months until new trading arrangements, a temporary scheme would have been implemented to import electricity with no tariff. The All-Ireland single Electricity Market would no longer have applied, although alternative trading arrangements had been outlined and were being pursued, the Government stated in March 2019. As a member of
10449-544: The UK. For some, xenophobia was a significant concern. Galsworthy concluded, "It is clear that the UK has overnight become less attractive as a place to do science." Galsworthy has continued to lobby and inform politicians and others about the negative consequences of a hard Brexit for science, including the loss of freedom of movement and the loss of influence over EU policies. Despite the referendum result, in Galsworthy's view Scientists for EU has been successful in raising
10578-437: The [EU] had 'the full-hearted support of the British people' but they needed to show 'tactical and strategic patience'." On 23 January 2013, under pressure from many of his MPs and from the rise of UKIP, Cameron promised in his Bloomberg speech that a Conservative government would hold an in-or-out referendum on EU membership before the end of 2017, on a renegotiated package, if elected in the 7 May 2015 general election . This
10707-658: The age of 65 likely to vote leave, whereas 18–24-year-olds were only 29% likely to vote leave. Education was another factor indicating voting likelihood: people with a GCSE or lower level of education were 70% likely to vote leave, whereas university graduates were only 32% likely to vote leave. Household income was another important factor, with households earning less than £20,000 62% likely to vote leave, compared to households earning £60,000 or more, which were only 35% likely to vote leave. There were major variations in geographic support for each side. Scotland and Northern Ireland both returned majorities for remain, although these had
10836-485: The agenda." In August 2018, Scientists for EU highlighted to the media that, in the event of a no-deal Brexit , the UK would lose its eligibility for three of the EU's major funding programmes. According to Galsworthy, this would mean "losing over half a billion [euros] a year in high value grants". In a profile in Nature in September 2018, Galsworthy said that Scientists for EU had changed its focus: Instead of representing
10965-635: The bloc. Despite growing political opposition to further European integration aimed at " ever closer union " between 1975 and 2016, notably from factions of the Conservative Party in the 1980s to 2000s, no further referendums on the issue were held. By the 2010s, the growing popularity of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), as well as pressure from Eurosceptics in his own party, persuaded the Conservative prime minister David Cameron to promise
11094-483: The day after the UK general election 2015 , Galsworthy co-founded the pro-EU research advocacy group Scientists for EU with fellow scientist Rob Davidson. Galsworthy articulated two concerns that Scientists for EU aimed to address: "first, a lack of clarity and cohesion within the community on EU benefits and Brexit risks; and, secondly, a lack of public understanding on the UK/EU relationship in science." His decision to found
11223-500: The draft agreement with effect from 1 January 2021. In May 2019, the Speaker of the House of Commons advised that while a no-deal exit on 31 October 2019 was the current default position in law, it was not credible that Parliament could be deprived of the right to intervene should it wish to do so. In July 2019 Boris Johnson became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party . The Department for Exiting
11352-576: The effects of Brexit on the NHS, published in The Lancet , that predicted negative consequences for healthcare in Britain under every scenario. Galsworthy appears in the anti-Brexit documentary film Postcards from the 48% (2018). Galsworthy is affiliated with the Labour Party . According to a profile in Der Standard , Galsworthy "persistently seeks clarification and sees it as a central science mission in
11481-453: The electorate, they are not given authority to transfer that power (the UK's previous three referendums all concerned this). Further, as the ratification of the treaty was in the manifestos of the three major political parties, voters opposed to ratification had limited options for expressing this. For Bogdanor, while the ratification by the House of Commons might be legal, it would not be legitimate—which requires popular consent. The way in which
11610-600: The era of fake news." He has described President of the United States Donald Trump as "a dictator in American caricature form". Brexit Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union Related: Women Brexit ( / ˈ b r ɛ k s ɪ t , ˈ b r ɛ ɡ z ɪ t / , a portmanteau of "British exit") was the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from
11739-575: The established interactions between the UK and the rest of the EU. Additionally, British interactions with non-EU countries that had been governed by EU agreements with those countries may have needed to be renegotiated, as well. Short-term (90-day) cross-border travel for tourism was expected to continue as before, albeit with some inconvenience to aviation schedules. While trading of goods (though not services) could have continued to operate under World Trade Organization (WTO) most favoured nation rules, some significant disruption to established trade flows
11868-556: The ex–prime ministers John Major , Tony Blair , and Gordon Brown ; notable supporters of the Leave campaign included the future prime ministers Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak . The electorate voted to leave the EU with a 51.9% share of the vote, with all regions of England and Wales except London voting in favour of Brexit, and Scotland and Northern Ireland voting against. The result led to Cameron's sudden resignation, his replacement by Theresa May, and four years of negotiations with
11997-424: The following day a British plane could not have landed at an EU airport. The British government said in September 2018 that in case of no deal on aviation, the UK would allow EU airlines to use British airports anyway, and expect EU countries to reciprocate. A number of other aviation issues existed, including pan-European air traffic control , service agreements with the EU and other countries, security regimes, and
12126-604: The framework for its future relationship with the [European] Union". If no agreement is reached within the two years, the membership ends without an agreement, unless an extension is unanimously agreed among all EU states, including the withdrawing state. On the EU side, the agreement needs to be ratified by qualified majority in the European Council , and by the European Parliament. The 2015 Referendum Act did not expressly require Article 50 to be invoked, but prior to
12255-460: The impact of EU membership on UK science to the House of Lords Science and Technology Committee . Galsworthy answered questions about the balance between structural and competitive EU funding for science , the effectiveness of EU science collaborations, and the potential loss of influence over EU scientific regulations after Brexit. Commenting on the committee's report in April 2016, Galsworthy stated that
12384-458: The impact of this, and that British exports to the EU as a percentage of its total exports had been falling rapidly since 1999. In 2016 Patrick Minford predicted that a 'Britain Alone' scenario in which Britain left the EU, traded with the EU only on WTO terms, and unilaterally removed all tariffs, would result in a gain of 4% of GDP relative to where it would otherwise have been had the UK remained in
12513-524: The interests of British science in the Brexit negotiations, it was partnering with People's Vote to prevent Brexit altogether. The change was motivated by the diminishing window of time for negotiations and the increasing likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. Together with Rob Davidson and Martin McKee , Galsworthy co-founded Healthier IN the EU, a grassroots organization making the health case for continued EU membership. Galsworthy and McKee co-authored an analysis of
12642-474: The left and right of British politics. According to a statistical analysis published in April 2016 by Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University , surveys showed an increase in Euroscepticism (a wish to leave the EU or stay in the EU and try to reduce the EU's powers) from 38% in 1993 to 65% in 2015. The BSA survey for the period of July–November 2015 showed that 60% backed the option to continue as
12771-407: The negotiations in two phases: first the UK would agree to a financial commitment and to lifelong benefits for EU citizens in Britain, and then negotiations on a future relationship could begin. In the first phase, the member states would demand that the UK pay a " divorce bill ", initially estimated as amounting to £52 billion. EU negotiators said that an agreement must be reached between UK and
12900-453: The no-deal scenario. Transport links were likely to be affected by additional procedures required at border crossings, leading to possible bottlenecks and congestion. Some measures were taken to mitigate the effect of possible problems, including additional ferry capacity. Additionally an enhanced plan, Operation Brock , was prepared to cope with additional traffic delays on the M20 motorway to
13029-406: The organization was driven by his reaction to the tone and content of the Brexit debate, which he described as a "colossal, nationwide rejection of expert opinion" fostered by "media... focused on the political soap opera, not the facts". Prior to the referendum, Scientists for EU became a high-profile organisation presenting the case for EU membership. In March 2016, Galsworthy presented evidence on
13158-467: The other could increase Chinese exports by $ 10 billion and US exports by $ 5 billion. A no-deal Brexit would have had immediate repercussions for many developing countries’ exports, with the UNCTAD research raising the possibility of significant disruption and economic harm for developing countries whose exports are highly reliant on the UK market and/or were then beneficiaries of EU preferences. In
13287-579: The president of the National Farmers Union, said there would be no market for 40% of the UK's lamb meat in the event of a no-deal Brexit. The Guardian also reported research commissioned by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board and Quality Meat Scotland that found that combined beef and sheep meat exports to the EU could have declined by 92.5%, with the lamb export trade "almost completely wiped out". Reports emerged of no deal plans by
13416-419: The profile of science in UK politics. In the 2017 United Kingdom general election both the Labour Party and Conservative Party election manifestos committed to raising the budget for research and development to 3 percent of gross domestic product . In Galsworthy's view, "This is a big step up from the general election of 2015 where science didn't feature. I think the referendum really helped push that onto
13545-442: The provision of school meals , for example by making them more expensive or less healthy; possibly even discarding the requirements entirely. One council also said that "special dietary requirements may be difficult to meet" and that fresh food might have to be replaced with frozen and tinned goods, while another mentioned the possibility of a return to rationing. The British Government intended to treat EU citizens already living in
13674-501: The referendum campaign. In May 2018, the Electoral Commission fined Leave.EU £70,000 for unlawfully overspending and inaccurately reporting loans from Arron Banks totalling £6 million. Smaller fines were levelled against the pro-EU campaign group Best for Our Future and two trade union donors for inaccurate reporting. In July 2018 Vote Leave was fined £61,000 for overspending, not declaring finances shared with BeLeave , and failing to comply with investigators. In November 2017,
13803-440: The referendum, the British government said it would respect the result. When Cameron resigned following the referendum, he said that it would be for the incoming prime minister to invoke Article 50. The new prime minister, Theresa May , said she would wait until 2017 to invoke the article, in order to prepare for the negotiations. In October 2016, she said Britain would trigger Article 50 in March 2017, and in December she gained
13932-499: The report The UK border: preparedness for EU exit update in October 2018 and an update in February 2019. These indicated 11 out of 12 critical systems for borders would be at risk were a no-deal exit to have occurred on 29 March 2019. EU citizens entering the UK for tourism and (some) business and tourism (and vice versa ), would not have needed visas for visits up to 90 days; however significant business travel would have required
14061-452: The rest of the EU. In December 2015, opinion polls showed a clear majority in favour of remaining in the EU; they also showed support would drop if Cameron did not negotiate adequate safeguards for non-eurozone member states, and restrictions on benefits for non-UK EU citizens. The outcome of the renegotiations was revealed in February 2016. Some limits to in-work benefits for new EU immigrants were agreed, but before they could be applied,
14190-517: The rest of the country. The report said that the City's financial services industry was sufficiently strong to withstand the impact of a no-deal Brexit and would remain "rich". Under the EU Single Market, freedom of movement allowed EU citizens to travel, live and work in any other member state. This freedom would have been curtailed by a no-deal Brexit, but in early September 2019 it became clear that Home Secretary Priti Patel would announce
14319-471: The rest of the world. For example, the Treasury's forecast showed that trade in goods had increased 115% more between EU countries compared to trade between the EU and the rest of the world over the timeline of the EU. The authors pointed to various problems with this, including that 115% was the average across all EU countries and UK-specific analysis leads to significantly lower number in the 20% to 30% range, that currency fluctuations should have reduced some of
14448-433: The rights of UK citizens in the EU and of EU citizens in Britain, and estimated the financial settlement to be £35–39 billion. May stressed that "Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed". Following this partial agreement, EU leaders agreed to move on to the second phase in the negotiations: discussion of the future relationship, a transition period and a possible trade deal. No-deal Brexit Withdrawal of
14577-604: The run up to the anticipated Spring 2019 Brexit date, the Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) and the Civil Contingencies Secretariat developed preparedness and contingency plans for the possibility of a "no-deal" Brexit, codenamed Operation Yellowhammer – the emergency co-ordination plan. In August 2019, it was reported that the Cabinet Office was "not able to confirm" that Operation Yellowhammer
14706-431: The same month, but would soon rejoin on a different band. The UK did not seek re-entry and remained outside the ERM. On 1 November 1993, after the UK and the other eleven member states had ratified, the EC became the EU under the Maastricht Treaty compromise between member states seeking deeper integration and those wishing to retain greater national control in the economic and political union . Denmark , France , and
14835-455: The scheduled end of the transition period, and the EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement was signed on 30 December 2020. The effects of Brexit are in part determined by the cooperation agreement, which provisionally applied from 1 January 2021, until it formally came into force on 1 May 2021. Following a UK-wide referendum on 23 June 2016 , in which 51.89 per cent voted in favour of leaving
14964-582: The sides to negotiate a trade agreement and to give time for the sides to prepare for the consequences of that agreement. On 24 December 2020, the President of the European Commission and the Prime Minister of the UK agreed in principle to a draft EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement . The Parliament of the United Kingdom ratified this agreement on 30 December 2020 and the European Parliament ratified it in late April 2021. The EU and UK agreed to apply
15093-559: The support of MP's for her timetable. In January 2017, the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom ruled in the Miller case that government could only invoke Article 50 if authorised by an act of parliament to do so. The government subsequently introduced a bill for that purpose, and it was passed into law on 16 March as the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017 . On 29 March, Theresa May triggered Article 50 when Tim Barrow ,
15222-501: The term was coined in a blog post on the website Euractiv by Peter Wilding, director of European policy at BSkyB , on 15 May 2012. Wilding coined Brexit to refer to the end of the UK's membership of the EU; by 2016, usage of the word had increased by 3,400% in one year. On 2 November 2016, the Collins English Dictionary selected Brexit as the word of the year for 2016. The " Inner Six " European countries signed
15351-518: The treaty was ratified, he judged, was "likely to have fundamental consequences both for British politics and for Britain's relationship with the [EC]." Thatcher, who had previously supported the common market and the Single European Act, in the Bruges speech of 1988 warned against "a European super-state exercising a new dominance from Brussels". She influenced Daniel Hannan , who in 1990 founded
15480-448: The withdrawal date to avoid a no-deal Brexit . The UK left the EU on 31 January 2020 after a withdrawal deal was passed by Parliament, but continued to participate in many EU institutions (including the single market and customs union) during an eleven-month transition period in order to ensure frictionless trade until all details of the post-Brexit relationship were agreed and implemented. Trade deal negotiations continued within days of
15609-524: The withdrawal process by invoking Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union with permission from Parliament . May called a snap general election in June 2017, which resulted in a Conservative minority government supported by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). UK–EU withdrawal negotiations began later that month. The UK negotiated to leave the EU customs union and single market. This resulted in
15738-569: Was anticipated and the UK and the EU had prepared agreements and (short-term) understandings for the more serious risks anticipated to arise. Operation Yellowhammer was the codename used by HM Treasury for cross-government civil contingency planning for the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. A renegotiated withdrawal agreement was ratified by Parliament in January 2020, and Brexit occurred at 23:00 GMT on 31 January 2020 (00:00 CET on 1 February). A Brexit transition period began at that point, to allow
15867-456: Was being made getting other countries to accept British versions of export health certificates, especially in the 15% of non-EU countries accounting for 90% of the UK's non-EU exports. There were also concerns about insufficient veterinary staff to process export health certificates. In August 2019 it was revealed that local government planning for a No-deal Brexit encompassed the possibility of needing to change legal requirements underpinning
15996-673: Was born in London . He studied Natural Sciences at the University of Cambridge . He gained his PhD in Behaviour Genetics from the King's College London in 2003. His doctoral supervisor was Robert Plomin . Galsworthy completed ten years of postdoctoral work in Switzerland and Slovenia, returning to London in June 2012 to take a position as Senior Research Associate at University College London . He
16125-405: Was changed to 31 January 2020 at 11.00 p.m. The UK's recurrent contributions to the EU budget would have ceased. (A House of Commons briefing paper issued in June 2016 stated that the average net contribution for the years 2013 to 2017 was £7.9 billion per annum.) The withdrawal agreement negotiated by Prime Minister Theresa May included an understanding that the UK would need to pay
16254-498: Was emphasised by UKIP winning two by-elections (in Clacton and Rochester and Strood , triggered by defecting Conservative MPs) in 2014. Both pro- and anti-EU views had majority support at different times from 1977 to 2015. In the EC membership referendum of 1975 , two-thirds of British voters favoured continued EC membership. Over the decades of UK-EU membership, Euroscepticism existed on both
16383-570: Was included in the Conservative Party manifesto for the election. The Conservative Party won the election with a majority. Soon afterwards, the European Union Referendum Act 2015 was introduced into Parliament to enable the referendum. Cameron favoured remaining in a reformed EU, and sought to renegotiate on four key points: protection of the single market for non-eurozone countries, reduction of "red tape", exempting Britain from "ever-closer union", and restricting immigration from
16512-403: Was not put to a referendum. The Eurosceptic wing of the Conservative Party led a rebellion over the ratification of the treaty and, with the UK Independence Party (UKIP) and the cross-party People's Pledge campaign, then led a collective campaign, particularly after the Treaty of Lisbon was also ratified by the European Union (Amendment) Act 2008 without being put to a referendum following
16641-428: Was ratified or if the two years had passed since a member state had indicated its will to leave the European Union. The two-year period could have been extended by unanimous consent from all member states, including the member state that was wishing to leave the European Union. Without such an agreement in place at the end of the period specified in Article 50, EU law and other agreements would have ceased to apply to
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