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114-503: The Barnum effect , also called the Forer effect or, less commonly, the Barnum–Forer effect , is a common psychological phenomenon whereby individuals give high accuracy ratings to descriptions of their personality that supposedly are tailored specifically to them, yet which are in fact vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people. This effect can provide a partial explanation for

228-493: A magician and mentalist , impressing the head of his department (among others) with his palmistry . Hyman at one point believed that 'reading' the lines on a person's palm could provide insights into their nature, but later discovered that the person's reaction to the reading had little to do with the actual lines on the palm. This fascination with why this happened led him to switch from a journalist degree to psychology . JREF president D.J. Grothe asked Hyman "How does

342-479: A neoplatonist , argued that since the fixed stars are much more distant than the planets, it is laughable to imagine the planets' effect on human affairs should depend on their position with respect to the zodiac. He also argues that the interpretation of the Moon's conjunction with a planet as good when the moon is full, but bad when the moon is waning, is clearly wrong, as from the Moon's point of view, half of its surface

456-643: A paranormal gift. The effect is a specific example of the "acceptance phenomenon", which describes the general tendency of humans "to accept almost any bogus personality feedback". A related and more general phenomenon is that of subjective validation . In 1947, psychologist Ross Stagner asked a number of personnel managers to take a personality test. After they had taken the test, Stagner, instead of responding with feedback based on their actual individual answers, presented each of them with generalized feedback that had no relation to their test answers but that was, instead, based on horoscopes, graphological analyses, and

570-613: A "case-based approach... concrete examples as a first step toward extracting broad examples... (giving) the benefit of context" to the learning experience. This approach differs from that of a traditional conference: he has attendees use hands-on participation, splitting them into teams so they are able to spend quality time discussing the readings and lectures. At the 2014 Toolbox, Hyman used Oskar Pfungst ’s investigation of Clever Hans as an example of how detailed and exhaustive some investigators are in studying claims. Hyman published his "classic paper showing that human choice reaction time

684-512: A "convincing distinction between astrology and astronomy that remains valid in the twenty-first century." Cicero stated the twins objection (that with close birth times, personal outcomes can be very different), later developed by Augustine . He argued that since the other planets are much more distant from the Earth than the Moon, they could have only very tiny influence compared to the Moon's. He also argued that if astrology explains everything about

798-400: A "rationalistic and critical thinker", was much more sanguine about astrology and critical of Pico's attack. Renaissance scholars commonly practised astrology. Gerolamo Cardano cast the horoscope of king Edward VI of England , while John Dee was the personal astrologer to queen Elizabeth I of England . Catherine de Medici paid Michael Nostradamus in 1566 to verify the prediction of

912-570: A Greek origin for Hindu astrology. The Indian techniques may also have been augmented with some of the Babylonian techniques. Chinese astrology has a close relation with Chinese philosophy (theory of the three harmonies: heaven, earth and man) and uses concepts such as yin and yang , the Five phases , the 10 Celestial stems , the 12 Earthly Branches , and shichen (時辰 a form of timekeeping used for religious purposes). The early use of Chinese astrology

1026-424: A brief personality vignette based on their test results. One week later Forer gave each student a purportedly individualized vignette and asked each of them to rate it on how well it applied. In reality, each student received the same vignette, consisting of the following items: On average, the students rated its accuracy as 4.30 on a scale of 0 (very poor) to 5 (excellent). Only after the ratings were turned in, it

1140-400: A communal calendar. Farmers addressed agricultural needs with increasing knowledge of the constellations that appear in the different seasons—and used the rising of particular star-groups to herald annual floods or seasonal activities. By the 3rd millennium BCE, civilisations had sophisticated awareness of celestial cycles, and may have oriented temples in alignment with heliacal risings of

1254-647: A crystal ball, tarot cards, or palm reading", if they are alert to the clues provided about their clients by such details as their "clothing, jewelry, mannerisms and speech", if they are not afraid of "hamming it up", and if they use flattery . Michael Birnbaum , a professor of psychology at California State University, Fullerton , has noted that the Forer effect is used by magicians and psychics when they give " cold readings ", as well as by certain TV personalities who claim psychoanalytical expertise and profess to be able to diagnose

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1368-502: A desire for power over time, history, and, in the last analysis, other human beings, as well as a wish to conciliate hidden powers. They contradict the honor, respect, and loving fear that we owe to God alone. Ray Hyman Hyman was born in Chelsea, Massachusetts to a Jewish family. Although he was bar mitzvahed at 13, Hyman "never had a religious feeling". In his teenage years and later while attending Boston University , he worked as

1482-427: A disclaimer. He remembered always beginning the performance by stating that he did not claim any special powers. He was an entertainer and he hoped they would enjoy the show. After he became a psychologist, he realized that this was an example of the "invited inference." By openly stating that he made no claims about the nature of his ability, Hyman had given his audience no reason to challenge him. Indeed, he had invited

1596-683: A fearful consideration for the sky and the stars, which they held to be ultimately responsible for every phenomena that occurs on Earth and for the destiny of humankind. Accordingly, they shaped their entire lives in accordance with their interpretations of astral configurations and phenomena. The Hellenistic schools of philosophical skepticism criticized the rationality of astrology. Criticism of astrology by academic skeptics such as Cicero , Carneades , and Favorinus ; and Pyrrhonists such as Sextus Empiricus has been preserved. Carneades argued that belief in fate denies free will and morality ; that people born at different times can all die in

1710-452: A guest's psychological problems in a few minutes. "Real psychologists are horrified by this practice", states Birnbaum, but they fail to criticize it vigorously enough in public, and so it continues to be treated with a respect it doesn't deserve. "It is regrettable that academic psychology has not paid more attention to the cold reading technique", Denis Dutton wrote in 1988, "in as much as the widespread practice of successful cold reading forms

1824-446: A person's fate, then it wrongly ignores the visible effect of inherited ability and parenting, changes in health worked by medicine, or the effects of the weather on people. Favorinus argued that it was absurd to imagine that stars and planets would affect human bodies in the same way as they affect the tides, and equally absurd that small motions in the heavens cause large changes in people's fates. Sextus Empiricus argued that it

1938-404: A phony faith healer who uses this trick on you! Be skeptical and ask for proof. Keep your money in your wallet, your wallet in your pocket, and your hand on your wallet." Astrology Astrology is a range of divinatory practices, recognized as pseudoscientific since the 18th century, that propose that information about human affairs and terrestrial events may be discerned by studying

2052-563: A popular following supported by cheap almanacs. One English almanac compiler, Richard Saunders, followed the spirit of the age by printing a derisive Discourse on the Invalidity of Astrology , while in France Pierre Bayle's Dictionnaire of 1697 stated that the subject was puerile. The Anglo-Irish satirist Jonathan Swift ridiculed the Whig political astrologer John Partridge . In

2166-462: A skeptic". Magicians who perform mentalism debate among themselves about using a disclaimer. The disclaimer is supposed to inform the audience that what they are witnessing is entertainment, and is not based on actual paranormal powers. In an interview with mentalist Mark Edward , Edward asked Hyman if he had ever used a disclaimer during the six years when he performed professionally as a mentalist. Hyman told him he did not remember explicitly using

2280-444: A table, and without touching it, the ring stood on end, broke in half and formed itself into a S-shape. Upon questioning all the scientists at the lab, Hyman discovered that no one had actually seen this happen, but had heard stories from others (who could not be tracked down) that it had happened." Hyman continued to question the scientists and discovered that no one had ever seen Geller bend anything without touching it. In fact "Geller

2394-528: A way that is "both effective and responsible" 1. Be prepared: have responses prepared for commonly asked questions about Skepticism 2. Clarify your objectives: assess your own intentions and determine your intended audience. Hyman warns against criticism motivated by bad intentions, such as attacking the claimant instead of the claim. 3. Do your homework: research to understand the claimant's argument 4. Do not go beyond your level of competence: admit what you do not know and consult experts when needed 5. Let

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2508-490: A young psychology student get into this parapsychology racket ... why you?" Hyman replied that it began when he was hired as a magician at age 7 (as the "Merry Mystic") performing for the Parents and Teachers Association at his school. This led him to read all about Harry Houdini and his work with spiritualists. By the age of 16 he started investigating spiritualist meetings. Thinking back to age 7, "I can't ever remember not being

2622-504: Is a product of a wonderful public relations campaign... What the audience gets is only one side of the story... He has been caught cheating many times" but people still believe. Speaking as a psychologist Hyman says "If you get people in the right frame of mind and they are cooperating with you... and even give them a poor reading... they will fit it to themselves and believe you are telling them about their unique personality." Gary Schwartz conducted numerous experiments at his laboratory at

2736-580: Is always in sunlight; and from the planet's point of view, waning should be better, as then the planet sees some light from the Moon, but when the Moon is full to us, it is dark, and therefore bad, on the side facing the planet in question. In 525 BCE, Egypt was conquered by the Persians. The 1st century BCE Egyptian Dendera Zodiac shares two signs – the Balance and the Scorpion – with Mesopotamian astrology. With

2850-571: Is based are early medieval compilations, notably the Bṛhat Parāśara Horāśāstra , and Sārāvalī by Kalyāṇavarma . The Horāshastra is a composite work of 71 chapters, of which the first part (chapters 1–51) dates to the 7th to early 8th centuries and the second part (chapters 52–71) to the later 8th century. The Sārāvalī likewise dates to around 800 CE. English translations of these texts were published by N.N. Krishna Rau and V.B. Choudhari in 1963 and 1961, respectively. Astrology

2964-422: Is difficult to duplicate him, he himself cannot duplicate himself. He's always ready to do something... he is going to do something when you think he is doing something else... misdirection... he's excellent at it, he's superb." In 1972 Hyman was asked by The Department of Defense to investigate psychic Uri Geller. Hyman was intrigued by a story that Geller had taken a ring from one of the scientists, set it on

3078-433: Is manifested in response to statements that are called "Barnum statements", meaning that general characterizations attributed to an individual are perceived to be true for them, even though the statements are such generalizations that they could apply to almost anyone. Such techniques are used by fortune tellers , astrologers , and other practitioners to convince customers that they, the practitioners, are in fact endowed with

3192-442: Is often associated with systems of horoscopes that purport to explain aspects of a person's personality and predict significant events in their lives based on the positions of celestial objects; the majority of professional astrologers rely on such systems. Throughout its history, astrology has had its detractors, competitors and skeptics who opposed it for moral, religious, political, and empirical reasons. Nonetheless, prior to

3306-458: Is related to the information content of an incoming signal" called the Hick-Hyman Law . This helped to lay the groundwork "for the shift from behavioral psychology... to the era of cognitive psychology ." This was Hyman's second published paper, and submitted while still a grad student. He states that Hick used a different formula and got his "math wrong, which I corrected" but they still named

3420-805: Is said to represent twelve different types of personality . It is based on cycles of years, lunar months, and two-hour periods of the day (the shichen). The zodiac traditionally begins with the sign of the Rat , and the cycle proceeds through 11 other animal signs: the Ox , Tiger , Rabbit , Dragon , Snake , Horse , Goat , Monkey , Rooster , Dog , and Pig . Complex systems of predicting fate and destiny based on one's birthday, birth season, and birth hours, such as ziping and Zi Wei Dou Shu ( simplified Chinese : 紫微斗数 ; traditional Chinese : 紫微斗數 ; pinyin : zǐwēidǒushù ) are still used regularly in modern-day Chinese astrology. They do not rely on direct observations of

3534-638: Is the aspect of each planet to every other planet, where for example two planets 120° apart (in 'trine') are in a harmonious relationship, but two planets 90° apart ('square') are in a conflicted relationship. Together these relationships and their interpretations are said to form "...the language of the heavens speaking to learned men." Along with tarot divination , astrology is one of the core studies of Western esotericism , and as such has influenced systems of magical belief not only among Western esotericists and Hermeticists , but also belief systems such as Wicca , which have borrowed from or been influenced by

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3648-407: Is the search for meaning in the sky. Early evidence for humans making conscious attempts to measure, record, and predict seasonal changes by reference to astronomical cycles, appears as markings on bones and cave walls, which show that lunar cycles were being noted as early as 25,000 years ago. This was a first step towards recording the Moon's influence upon tides and rivers, and towards organising

3762-458: Is working on two books: How Smart People Go Wrong: Cognition and Human Error and Parapsychology's Achilles' Heel: Consistent Inconsistency . On October 9, 2010, the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry announced Hyman (and others) as a part of their policy-making Executive Council, he will also serve on Skeptical Inquirer 's magazine board. In the 2010 D.J. Grothe interview, Hyman states that

3876-636: The Tetrabiblos formed the basis of Western astrology, and, "...enjoyed almost the authority of a Bible among the astrological writers of a thousand years or more." The conquest of Asia by Alexander the Great exposed the Greeks to ideas from Syria , Babylon, Persia and central Asia. Around 280 BCE, Berossus , a priest of Bel from Babylon, moved to the Greek island of Kos , teaching astrology and Babylonian culture. By

3990-522: The Afterlife Experiments conducted by Schwartz. Published May 2003, Schwartz responded that Hyman ignored "the total body of research." Schwartz takes issue with Hyman's opinion that he (Hyman) will not believe in psi. Hyman answered, "Until multiple perfect experiments are performed and published... believe that the totality of the findings must be due to some combination of fraud, cold reading, rater bias, experimenter error, or chance... Why spend

4104-548: The Hindus , Chinese , and the Maya —developed elaborate systems for predicting terrestrial events from celestial observations. Western astrology , one of the oldest astrological systems still in use, can trace its roots to 19th–17th century BCE Mesopotamia , from where it spread to Ancient Greece, Rome, the Islamic world , and eventually Central and Western Europe. Contemporary Western astrology

4218-549: The Latin translations of the 12th century . In the seventh century, Isidore of Seville argued in his Etymologiae that astronomy described the movements of the heavens, while astrology had two parts: one was scientific, describing the movements of the Sun, the Moon and the stars, while the other, making predictions, was theologically erroneous. The first astrological book published in Europe

4332-487: The University of Arizona where he is a tenured professor. Schwartz believes that he has proven the dead communicate with the living through human mediums. Hyman details many methodological errors with Schwartz's research including; "Inappropriate control comparisons", "Failure to use double-blind procedures", "Creating non-falsifiable outcomes by reinterpreting failures as successes" and "Failure to independently check on facts

4446-607: The planets , and argued: And if you astrologers answer that it is precisely because of this distance and smallness that their influences are negligible, then why is it that you claim a great influence for the smallest heavenly body, Mercury? Why is it that you have given an influence to al-Ra's [the head] and al-Dhanab [the tail], which are two imaginary points [ascending and descending nodes] ? Martin Luther denounced astrology in his Table Talk . He asked why twins like Esau and Jacob had two different natures yet were born at

4560-442: The zodiac (twelve spatial divisions of the ecliptic ) and by their aspects (based on geometric angles) relative to one another. They are also considered by their placement in houses (twelve spatial divisions of the sky). Astrology's modern representation in western popular media is usually reduced to sun sign astrology , which considers only the zodiac sign of the Sun at an individual's date of birth, and represents only 1/12 of

4674-587: The zodiac , a norming point near 9 degrees in Aries, the trine aspect, planetary exaltations, and the dodekatemoria (the twelve divisions of 30 degrees each). The Babylonians viewed celestial events as possible signs rather than as causes of physical events. The system of Chinese astrology was elaborated during the Zhou dynasty (1046–256 BCE) and flourished during the Han dynasty (2nd century BCE to 2nd century CE), during which all

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4788-614: The "Spook Chair" for one year at Stanford University during a sabbatical from the University of Oregon. What the Stanford University psychologists informally call the "Spook" chair is officially known as The Thomas Welton Stanford Chair for Psychical Research. Thomas Welton was the brother of Stanford's founder, Leland Stanford . Along with other notable skeptics like James Randi , Martin Gardner , Marcello Truzzi and Paul Kurtz , he

4902-795: The 1st century BCE, there were two varieties of astrology, one using horoscopes to describe the past, present and future; the other, theurgic , emphasising the soul's ascent to the stars. Greek influence played a crucial role in the transmission of astrological theory to Rome . The first definite reference to astrology in Rome comes from the orator Cato , who in 160 BCE warned farm overseers against consulting with Chaldeans, who were described as Babylonian 'star-gazers'. Among both Greeks and Romans , Babylonia (also known as Chaldea ) became so identified with astrology that 'Chaldean wisdom' became synonymous with divination using planets and stars. The 2nd-century Roman poet and satirist Juvenal complains about

5016-525: The 3rd century BCE, though incorporating the Hindu lunar mansions. The names of the signs (e.g. Greek 'Krios' for Aries, Hindi 'Kriya'), the planets (e.g. Greek 'Helios' for Sun, astrological Hindi 'Heli'), and astrological terms (e.g. Greek 'apoklima' and 'sunaphe' for declination and planetary conjunction, Hindi 'apoklima' and 'sunapha' respectively) in Varaha Mihira's texts are considered conclusive evidence of

5130-511: The Catholic Church maintains that divination, including predictive astrology, is incompatible with modern Catholic beliefs such as free will: All forms of divination are to be rejected: recourse to Satan or demons, conjuring up the dead or other practices falsely supposed to "unveil" the future. Consulting horoscopes, astrology, palm reading, interpretation of omens and lots, the phenomena of clairvoyance, and recourse to mediums all conceal

5244-518: The Egyptian concept of dividing the zodiac into thirty-six decans of ten degrees each, with an emphasis on the rising decan, and the Greek system of planetary Gods, sign rulership and four elements . 2nd century BCE texts predict positions of planets in zodiac signs at the time of the rising of certain decans, particularly Sothis. The astrologer and astronomer Ptolemy lived in Alexandria. Ptolemy's work

5358-454: The English mathematician and physician Thomas Hood made a set of paper instruments that used revolving overlays to help students work out relationships between fixed stars or constellations, the midheaven, and the twelve astrological houses . Hood's instruments also illustrated, for pedagogical purposes, the supposed relationships between the signs of the zodiac, the planets, and the parts of

5472-486: The Enlightenment , however, astrology lost its status as an area of legitimate scholarly pursuit. Following the end of the 19th century and the wide-scale adoption of the scientific method , researchers have successfully challenged astrology on both theoretical and experimental grounds, and have shown it to have no scientific validity or explanatory power . Astrology thus lost its academic and theoretical standing in

5586-409: The Enlightenment, astrology was generally considered a scholarly tradition and was common in learned circles, often in close relation with astronomy , meteorology , medicine , and alchemy . It was present in political circles and is mentioned in various works of literature, from Dante Alighieri and Geoffrey Chaucer to William Shakespeare , Lope de Vega , and Pedro Calderón de la Barca . During

5700-577: The Forer effect to take advantage of victims (or " marks "). He provided a list of factors that help these tricksters to dupe their prey. For example, hucksters are more likely to be successful if they exude an air of confidence ("If you look and act as if you believe in what you are doing, you will be able to sell even a bad reading to most of your subjects"), if they "[m]ake creative use of the latest statistical abstracts, polls, and surveys" showing "what various subclasses of our society believe, do, want, worry about, and so on", if they employ "a gimmick, such as

5814-553: The Great's conquest of Asia allowed astrology to spread to Ancient Greece and Rome . In Rome, astrology was associated with " Chaldean wisdom". After the conquest of Alexandria in the 7th century, astrology was taken up by Islamic scholars, and Hellenistic texts were translated into Arabic and Persian. In the 12th century, Arabic texts were imported to Europe and translated into Latin . Major astronomers including Tycho Brahe , Johannes Kepler and Galileo practised as court astrologers. Astrological references appear in literature in

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5928-503: The Latin astronomia ). By the 17th century , astronomy became established as the scientific term, with astrology referring to divinations and schemes for predicting human affairs. Many cultures have attached importance to astronomical events, and the Indians , Chinese , and Maya developed elaborate systems for predicting terrestrial events from celestial observations. A form of astrology

6042-624: The Western esoteric tradition. Tanya Luhrmann has said that "all magicians know something about astrology," and refers to a table of correspondences in Starhawk's The Spiral Dance , organised by planet , as an example of the astrological lore studied by magicians. The earliest Vedic text on astronomy is the Vedanga Jyotisha ; Vedic thought later came to include astrology as well. Hindu natal astrology originated with Hellenistic astrology by

6156-457: The Will of God can be known and predicted. For example, Avicenna's 'Refutation against astrology', Risāla fī ibṭāl aḥkām al-nojūm , argues against the practice of astrology while supporting the principle that planets may act as agents of divine causation. Avicenna considered that the movement of the planets influenced life on earth in a deterministic way, but argued against the possibility of determining

6270-406: The apparent positions of celestial objects . Different cultures have employed forms of astrology since at least the 2nd millennium BCE, these practices having originated in calendrical systems used to predict seasonal shifts and to interpret celestial cycles as signs of divine communications. Most, if not all, cultures have attached importance to what they observed in the sky, and some—such as

6384-452: The autoganzfeld experiments. Magician Jerry Andrus and Hyman appeared in 1975 on a TV station in Portland, Oregon, where they explained and duplicated the "paranormal" tricks Geller had performed for host Dick Klinger the week prior. Klinger asked, "Does Uri Geller have any supernatural powers?" Andrus gave the short answer "No." Hyman stated, "(Geller) is an opportunist... which is why it

6498-465: The basis for much of the belief in paranormal powers to be found in society today." While academic psychologists had focused in their studies on students, Dutton called for "analysis of the actual techniques and methods used by proficient cold readers". "The moral of the Barnum demonstration", Birnbaum has said, is that "self-validation is no validation. Do not be fooled by a psychic, quack psychotherapist, or

6612-421: The country to attend the 4-day conference, to hone their critical thinking skills. Hyman is curious about why people who believe in paranormal claims without evidence continue to do so: "'I just want to understand how people get to believe some things... Magic is a perfect example of how people can be fooled'" and it works the same way with paranormal claims. Hyman felt that it was necessary to teach attendees with

6726-622: The current state of the skeptical movement, Hyman stated "The media, unfortunately has made it so we have many more believers." Less science teachers in the classrooms, major newspapers are firing their science writing staff, 24-hour news channels are trying to fill all that time and compete with Fox News . "Things are not good." Hyman in 1989 created the Skeptic's Toolbox to teach people how to be better skeptics. Hyman tells James Underdown that "we were putting out more fires by skeptics than by believers... they were going overboard". The first toolbox

6840-564: The death of her husband, king Henry II of France made by her astrologer Lucus Gauricus. Major astronomers who practised as court astrologers included Tycho Brahe in the royal court of Denmark, Johannes Kepler to the Habsburgs , Galileo Galilei to the Medici , and Giordano Bruno who was burnt at the stake for heresy in Rome in 1600. The distinction between astrology and astronomy was not entirely clear. Advances in astronomy were often motivated by

6954-493: The desire to improve the accuracy of astrology. Kepler, for example, was driven by a belief in harmonies between Earthly and celestial affairs, yet he disparaged the activities of most astrologers as "evil-smelling dung". Ephemerides with complex astrological calculations, and almanacs interpreting celestial events for use in medicine and for choosing times to plant crops, were popular in Elizabethan England. In 1597,

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7068-546: The development of psychological astrology . Advocates have defined astrology as a symbolic language, an art form, a science , and a method of divination. Though most cultural astrology systems share common roots in ancient philosophies that influenced each other, many use methods that differ from those in the West. These include Hindu astrology (also known as "Indian astrology" and in modern times referred to as "Vedic astrology") and Chinese astrology, both of which have influenced

7182-431: The exact influence of the stars. Essentially, Avicenna did not deny the core dogma of astrology, but denied our ability to understand it to the extent that precise and fatalistic predictions could be made from it. Ibn Qayyim al-Jawziyya (1292–1350), in his Miftah Dar al-SaCadah , also used physical arguments in astronomy to question the practice of judicial astrology. He recognised that the stars are much larger than

7296-476: The existence of anomalous cognition has been established." While working at Stanford University and serving as the "Spook Chair'" Hyman decided that he would never be able to read all the literature concerning parapsychology that existed in the 1980s. He then asked parapsychologists "What is the best evidence for psi?" they nearly universally pointed to the Ganzfeld experiment . Hyman wrote to Charles Honorton and

7410-570: The facts speak for themselves: if you have thoroughly prepared, let the audience reach the conclusion on their own 6. Be precise: use precise language, be as accurate as possible. While discussing Proper Criticism on the Squaring the Strange Podcast, Benjamin Radford expanded on this advice, "often times ambiguous or fuzzy words or concepts reveal ambiguous or fuzzy thinking and obfuscation" 7. Use

7524-454: The failure of astrology to explain twins who behave differently although conceived at the same moment and born at approximately the same time. Some of the practices of astrology were contested on theological grounds by medieval Muslim astronomers such as Al-Farabi (Alpharabius), Ibn al-Haytham (Alhazen) and Avicenna . They said that the methods of astrologers conflicted with orthodox religious views of Islamic scholars , by suggesting that

7638-542: The familiar elements of traditional Chinese culture – the Yin-Yang philosophy, theory of the five elements, Heaven and Earth, Confucian morality – were brought together to formalise the philosophical principles of Chinese medicine and divination, astrology, and alchemy . The ancient Arabs that inhabited the Arabian Peninsula before the advent of Islam used to profess a widespread belief in fatalism ( ḳadar ) alongside

7752-534: The fifteenth century. In Paradiso , the final part of the Divine Comedy , the Italian poet Dante Alighieri referred "in countless details" to the astrological planets, though he adapted traditional astrology to suit his Christian viewpoint, for example using astrological thinking in his prophecies of the reform of Christendom . John Gower in the fourteenth century defined astrology as essentially limited to

7866-430: The findings of replication studies. The content of the description offered is important, with specific emphasis on the ratio of positive to negative trait assessments. The other important factor is that the subject trusts the honesty of the person providing feedback. The effect is consistently found when the assessment statements are vague. People are able to read their own meaning into the statements they receive, and thus

7980-562: The first day of the fifth month in the Thai lunar calendar , or during the Songkran festival (now celebrated every 13–15 April), depending on the purpose of the use. Augustine (354–430) believed that the determinism of astrology conflicted with the Christian doctrines of man's free will and responsibility, and God not being the cause of evil, but he also grounded his opposition philosophically, citing

8094-683: The foremost expert on subjective validation and cold reading . Hyman's prestidigitational skills (which he calls "manipulating perception") have earned him the cover of The Linking Ring twice, June 1952 and October 1986 this magazine of the International Brotherhood of Magicians of which he has been a member for over 35 years. Hyman retired in 1998 but continues to give talks and investigate paranormal claims. In July 2009 he appeared at The Amaz!ng Meeting 7 in Las Vegas, Nevada . Also in 2011, TAM 9 From Outer Space and TAM 2012. He

8208-640: The formation of the skeptic movement can be attributed to Uri Geller and Alice Cooper . Randi was touring with Cooper as a part of the stage show, Cooper asked Randi to invite Hyman to a show in order to ask his advice about the audience. While there, "Randi pulled me aside and said... we really ought to do something about this Uri Geller business... lets form an organization called SIR" (Sanity In Research). In 1972 joined by Martin Gardner they had their first meeting. The three of them felt they had no administration experience, "we just had good ideas" and were soon joined by Marcello Truzzi who provided structure for

8322-536: The gods revealed to him in a dream the constellations that would be most favourable for the planned construction of a temple. However, there is controversy about whether these were genuinely recorded at the time or merely ascribed to ancient rulers by posterity. The oldest undisputed evidence of the use of astrology as an integrated system of knowledge is therefore attributed to the records of the first dynasty of Babylon (1950–1651 BCE). This astrology had some parallels with Hellenistic Greek (western) astrology, including

8436-500: The group. Truzzi involved Paul Kurtz and they then formed CSICOP in 1976. In an interview in 2009 with Derek Colanduno for the Skepticality podcast, Hyman was asked his opinion of the modern skeptical movement. Hyman responded that skeptics need to have goals and a way to measure them. They need to become a resource for the public, and focus on educating journalists and teachers. "That way we will get more bang for our buck." On

8550-523: The history of the Skeptical Inquirer". The guide exploits what fascinated him in his academic research in cognitive psychology , that much deception is self-deception. He has investigated dowsing in the United States and written a book on the subject. He is one of the foremost skeptical experts on the Ganzfeld experiment . According to Bob Carroll , psychologist Ray Hyman is considered to be

8664-525: The human body adherents believed were governed by the planets and signs. While Hood's presentation was innovative, his astrological information was largely standard and was taken from Gerard Mercator's astrological disc made in 1551, or a source used by Mercator. Despite its popularity, Renaissance astrology had what historian Gabor Almasi calls "elite debate", exemplified by the polemical letters of Swiss physician Thomas Erastus who fought against astrology, calling it "vanity" and "superstition." Then around

8778-730: The law after him because Hyman was "just a student". Sometimes called Hick's Law (mainly in Britain), in America it is more often referred to as the Hick-Hyman Law. Along with Jessica Utts, he conducted a review of CIA remote viewing experiments in 1995. He noted that the experiments "appear to be free of the more obvious and better known flaws that can invalidate the results of parapsychological investigations" and that there are significant effect sizes "too large and consistent to be dismissed as statistical flukes." However, he stops short of "concluding that

8892-402: The like. Each of the managers was then asked how accurate the assessment was. More than half described the assessment as accurate, and almost none described it as wrong. In 1948, in what has been described as a "classic experiment", psychologist Forer gave a psychology test – his "Diagnostic Interest Blank" – to 39 of his psychology students, who were told that they would each receive

9006-503: The making of predictions. The influence of the stars was in turn divided into natural astrology, with for example effects on tides and the growth of plants, and judicial astrology, with supposedly predictable effects on people. The fourteenth-century sceptic Nicole Oresme however included astronomy as a part of astrology in his Livre de divinacions . Oresme argued that current approaches to prediction of events such as plagues, wars, and weather were inappropriate, but that such prediction

9120-426: The occupation by Alexander the Great in 332 BCE, Egypt became Hellenistic . The city of Alexandria was founded by Alexander after the conquest, becoming the place where Babylonian astrology was mixed with Egyptian Decanic astrology to create Horoscopic astrology . This contained the Babylonian zodiac with its system of planetary exaltations , the triplicities of the signs and the importance of eclipses. It used

9234-641: The onlookers to make their own inferences about the source of the apparent feats of mind reading. Most of them concluded he was truly psychic. He obtained a doctorate in psychology from Johns Hopkins University in 1953, and then taught at Harvard for five years. He also became an expert in statistical methods . In 2007 Hyman received an honorary doctorate from the Simon Fraser University for his "intellect and discipline who inspire others to follow in his footsteps... (and) for his courageous advocacy of unfettered skeptical inquiry". In 1982, Hyman held

9348-416: The persons presenting the assessments as high-status professionals. Evidence also suggests that people with authoritarian or neurotic personalities or who have a greater than usual need for approval are more likely to manifest the Barnum effect. Later studies have found that subjects give higher accuracy ratings if the following are true: In 1977, Ray Hyman wrote about the way in which hucksters exploit

9462-560: The pervasive influence of Chaldeans, saying, "Still more trusted are the Chaldaeans; every word uttered by the astrologer they will believe has come from Hammon's fountain." One of the first astrologers to bring Hermetic astrology to Rome was Thrasyllus , astrologer to the emperor Tiberius , the first emperor to have had a court astrologer, though his predecessor Augustus had used astrology to help legitimise his Imperial rights. The main texts upon which classical Indian astrology

9576-531: The publication of sermons that depicted astrology as a legitimate biblical pursuit for Christians. They commissioned sermons that argued Astrology was divine, Hebraic, and scripturally supported by Bible passages about the Magi and the sons of Seth . According to historian Michelle Pfeffer, "The society's public relations campaign ultimately failed." Modern historians have mostly neglected the Society of Astrologers in favor of

9690-468: The quality of their criticism. Aside from his scholarly publications and consultation with the U.S. Department of Defense in scrutinizing psychic research, one of his most popular articles is thirteen points to help you "amaze your friends with your new found psychic powers !", a guide to cold reading . According to Jim Alcock , "His article on cold reading, so Paul Kurtz informs me, has generated more requests for reprints than any other article in

9804-529: The same accident or battle; and that contrary to uniform influences from the stars, tribes and cultures are all different. Cicero , in De Divinatione , leveled a critique of astrology that some modern philosophers consider to be the first working definition of pseudoscience and the answer to the demarcation problem . Philosopher of Science Massimo Pigliucci , building on the work of Historian of Science, Damien Fernandez-Beanato, argues that Cicero outlined

9918-415: The same time. Luther also compared astrologers to those who say their dice will always land on a certain number. Although the dice may roll on the number a couple of times, the predictor is silent for all the times the dice fails to land on that number. What is done by God, ought not to be ascribed to the stars. The upright and true Christian religion opposes and confutes all such fables. The Catechism of

10032-520: The second half of the 17th century, the Society of Astrologers (1647–1684), a trade, educational, and social organization, sought to unite London's often fractious astrologers in the task of revitalizing astrology. Following the template of the popular "Feasts of Mathematicians" they endeavored to defend their art in the face of growing religious criticism. The Society hosted banquets, exchanged "instruments and manuscripts", proposed research projects, and funded

10146-464: The sitters endorsed as true". Hyman wrote "Even if the research program were not compromised by these defects, the claims being made would require replication by independent investigators." Hyman criticizes Schwartz's decision to publish his results without gathering "evidence for their hypothesis that would meet generally accepted scientific criteria... they have lost credibility." There have been many follow-up exchanges between Schwartz and Hyman over

10260-508: The soul. The thirteenth century mathematician Campanus of Novara is said to have devised a system of astrological houses that divides the prime vertical into 'houses' of equal 30° arcs, though the system was used earlier in the East. The thirteenth century astronomer Guido Bonatti wrote a textbook, the Liber Astronomicus , a copy of which King Henry VII of England owned at the end of

10374-521: The stars. Scattered evidence suggests that the oldest known astrological references are copies of texts made in the ancient world. The Venus tablet of Ammisaduqa is thought to have been compiled in Babylon around 1700 BCE. A scroll documenting an early use of electional astrology is doubtfully ascribed to the reign of the Sumerian ruler Gudea of Lagash ( c.  2144 – 2124 BCE). This describes how

10488-733: The stars. The Korean zodiac is identical to the Chinese one. The Vietnamese zodiac is almost identical to the Chinese, except for second animal being the Water Buffalo instead of the Ox , and the fourth animal the Cat instead of the Rabbit . The Japanese have since 1873 celebrated the beginning of the new year on 1 January as per the Gregorian calendar . The Thai zodiac begins, not at Chinese New Year , but either on

10602-491: The statement becomes "personal" to them. The most effective statements include the phrase "at times", such as "At times you feel very sure of yourself, while at other times you are not as confident." This phrase can apply to almost anyone, and thus each person can read a "personal" meaning into it. Keeping statements vague in this manner ensures observing the Forer effect in replication studies. Individuals are more likely to accept negative assessments of themselves if they perceive

10716-443: The still extant Royal Society (1660), even though both organizations initially had some of the same members. Astrology saw a popular revival starting in the 19th century, as part of a general revival of spiritualism and—later, New Age philosophy, and through the influence of mass media such as newspaper horoscopes. Early in the 20th century the psychiatrist Carl Jung developed some concepts concerning astrology, which led to

10830-526: The time and money conducting multiple multi-center, double-blind experiments unless there are sufficient theoretical, experimental, and social reasons for doing so?" Hyman wrote a brief guide called Proper Criticism directed at critics of paranormal claims. It has widely been dispersed among Skeptics working in the public eye, including the editorial staff at Skeptical Inquirer . It is also featured in his book The Elusive Quarry. Proper Criticism gives eight suggestions for approaching criticism thoughtfully in

10944-423: The time of the new star of 1572 and the comet of 1577 there began what Almasi calls an "extended epistemological reform" which began the process of excluding religion, astrology and anthropocentrism from scientific debate. By 1679, the yearly publication La Connoissance des temps eschewed astrology as a legitimate topic. During the Enlightenment , intellectual sympathy for astrology fell away, leaving only

11058-439: The total chart. The horoscope visually expresses the set of relationships for the time and place of the chosen event. These relationships are between the seven 'planets', signifying tendencies such as war and love; the twelve signs of the zodiac; and the twelve houses. Each planet is in a particular sign and a particular house at the chosen time, when observed from the chosen place, creating two kinds of relationship. A third kind

11172-522: The western world, and common belief in it largely declined, until a continuing resurgence starting in the 1960s. The word astrology comes from the early Latin word astrologia , which derives from the Greek ἀστρολογία —from ἄστρον astron ("star") and -λογία -logia , ("study of"—"account of the stars"). The word entered the English language via Latin and medieval French , and its use overlapped considerably with that of astronomy (derived from

11286-537: The widespread acceptance of some paranormal beliefs and practices, such as astrology , fortune telling , aura reading , and some types of personality tests . Psychologist Bertram Forer originally named it the "fallacy of personal validation". The term "Barnum effect" was coined in 1956 by psychologist Paul Meehl in his essay "Wanted – A Good Cookbook", because he relates the vague personality descriptions used in certain "pseudo-successful" psychological tests to those given by showman P. T. Barnum . The Barnum effect

11400-692: The works of poets such as Dante Alighieri and Geoffrey Chaucer , and of playwrights such as Christopher Marlowe and William Shakespeare . Throughout most of its history, astrology was considered a scholarly tradition. It was accepted in political and academic contexts, and was connected with other studies, such as astronomy , alchemy , meteorology , and medicine. At the end of the 17th century, new scientific concepts in astronomy and physics (such as heliocentrism and Newtonian mechanics ) called astrology into question. Astrology thus lost its academic and theoretical standing, and common belief in astrology has largely declined. Astrology, in its broadest sense,

11514-426: The world's cultural history. Western astrology is a form of divination based on the construction of a horoscope for an exact moment, such as a person's birth. It uses the tropical zodiac, which is aligned to the equinoctial points . Western astrology is founded on the movements and relative positions of celestial bodies such as the Sun, Moon and planets, which are analysed by their movement through signs of

11628-642: Was a founding member of the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal (CSICOP) (which is now known as the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry (CSI)), which publishes the Skeptical Inquirer . He also developed a style guide and etiquette manual to assist skeptical writers and critics. This is called "Hyman's Proper Criticism" and proposes six steps that skeptics can use to upgrade

11742-415: Was a valid field of inquiry. However, he attacked the use of astrology to choose the timing of actions (so-called interrogation and election) as wholly false, and rejected the determination of human action by the stars on grounds of free will. The friar Laurens Pignon (c. 1368–1449) similarly rejected all forms of divination and determinism, including by the stars, in his 1411 Contre les Devineurs . This

11856-530: Was absurd to link human attributes with myths about the signs of the zodiac, and wrote an entire book, Against the Astrologers (Πρὸς ἀστρολόγους, Pros astrologous ), compiling arguments against astrology. Against the Astrologers was the fifth section of a larger work arguing against philosophical and scientific inquiry in general, Against the Professors (Πρὸς μαθηματικούς, Pros mathematikous ). Plotinus ,

11970-505: Was allowed to take the object into the bathroom... and then come back with the bent object, they took his word for it." "The parapsychologist (also sent to investigate) 'saw a psychic,' and I reported back that I saw only a charismatic fraud." When asked to explain further why people believe in Geller when a magician can do the same thing without paranormal powers, Hyman states, "He's a fraud, but you can't blame people for believing him. Geller

12084-557: Was in Buffalo, NY with himself, James Alcock and Steve Shaw now called Banachek . With the exception of one year when the toolbox was held in Boulder, CO the toolbox has been held at the University of Oregon in Eugene. The Skeptic's Toolbox originally spanned 5 days. Later it was cut back to 4 days. Speaking to a reporter from The Register-Guard Hyman explains that people come from all over

12198-651: Was in opposition to the tradition carried by the Arab astronomer Albumasar (787–886) whose Introductorium in Astronomiam and De Magnis Coniunctionibus argued the view that both individual actions and larger scale history are determined by the stars. In the late 15th century, Giovanni Pico della Mirandola forcefully attacked astrology in Disputationes contra Astrologos , arguing that the heavens neither caused, nor heralded earthly events. His contemporary, Pietro Pomponazzi ,

12312-481: Was mainly confined to political astrology , the observation of unusual phenomena, identification of portents and the selection of auspicious days for events and decisions. The constellations of the Zodiac of western Asia and Europe were not used; instead the sky is divided into Three Enclosures (三垣 sān yuán), and Twenty-Eight Mansions (二十八宿 èrshíbā xiù) in twelve Ci ( 十二次 ). The Chinese zodiac of twelve animal signs

12426-660: Was practised in the Old Babylonian period of Mesopotamia , c.  1800 BCE . Vedāṅga Jyotiṣa is one of earliest known Hindu texts on astronomy and astrology ( Jyotisha ). The text is dated between 1400 BCE to final centuries BCE by various scholars according to astronomical and linguistic evidences. Chinese astrology was elaborated in the Zhou dynasty (1046–256 BCE). Hellenistic astrology after 332 BCE mixed Babylonian astrology with Egyptian Decanic astrology in Alexandria , creating horoscopic astrology . Alexander

12540-470: Was revealed that all students had received an identical vignette assembled by Forer from a newsstand astrology book. Forer attributed the effect to gullibility . The effect has been said to confirm the Pollyanna principle , where individuals tend "to use or accept positive words of feedback more frequently than negative words of feedback". Two factors are important in producing the Forer effect, according to

12654-478: Was sent 600 pages of information. Three years later Hyman's analysis led to the 1985 issue of the Journal of Parapsychology publishing Hyman's critiques. Hyman's conclusion "By themselves these experiments do not mean anything unless they can be replicated". In 2007, Hyman noted that the ganzfeld experiments had not been successfully replicated and suggested there was evidence that sensory leakage had taken place in

12768-526: Was taken up by Islamic scholars following the collapse of Alexandria to the Arabs in the 7th century, and the founding of the Abbasid empire in the 8th. The second Abbasid caliph , Al Mansur (754–775) founded the city of Baghdad to act as a centre of learning, and included in its design a library-translation centre known as Bayt al-Hikma 'House of Wisdom', which continued to receive development from his heirs and

12882-661: Was the Liber Planetis et Mundi Climatibus ("Book of the Planets and Regions of the World"), which appeared between 1010 and 1027 AD, and may have been authored by Gerbert of Aurillac . Ptolemy's second century AD Tetrabiblos was translated into Latin by Plato of Tivoli in 1138. The Dominican theologian Thomas Aquinas followed Aristotle in proposing that the stars ruled the imperfect 'sublunary' body, while attempting to reconcile astrology with Christianity by stating that God ruled

12996-472: Was to provide a major impetus for Arabic-Persian translations of Hellenistic astrological texts. The early translators included Mashallah , who helped to elect the time for the foundation of Baghdad, and Sahl ibn Bishr , ( a.k.a. Zael ), whose texts were directly influential upon later European astrologers such as Guido Bonatti in the 13th century, and William Lilly in the 17th century. Knowledge of Arabic texts started to become imported into Europe during

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