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97-502: The first fair was held during September 1954 and lasted for one month. The number of visitors exceeded 1,000,000 and 26 countries participated in the Fair, in addition to a various number of Syrian Industrial and commercial Enterprises. It covered a display area of 250,000 sqm. The Fair was cancelled in 2012 because of the Syrian Civil War , but returned in 2017 for its 59th iteration after

194-588: A 2022 study in the American Political Science Review , Acemoglu and Robinson argue that the nature of the relationship between elites and society determine whether stable democracy emerges. When elites are overly dominant, despotic states emerge. When society is overly dominant, weak states emerge. When elites and society are evenly balance, inclusive states emerge. Research shows that oil wealth lowers levels of democracy and strengthens autocratic rule. According to Michael Ross, petroleum

291-417: A country goes to a war or whether its economy grows. The opposite process is known as democratic backsliding or autocratization. Theories of democratization seek to explain a large macro-level change of a political regime from authoritarianism to democracy. Symptoms of democratization include reform of the electoral system , increased suffrage and reduced political apathy . Democracy indices enable

388-688: A country, especially in case of trade with other democracies. A 2020 study found increased trade between democracies reduces democratic backsliding , while trade between democracies and autocracies reduces democratization of the autocracies. Trade and capital mobility often involve international organizations, such as the International Money Fund (IMF), World Bank , and World Trade Organization (WTO), which can condition financial assistance or trade agreements on democratic reforms. Sociologist Barrington Moore Jr. , in his influential Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (1966), argues that

485-452: A festival in Asia is a stub . You can help Misplaced Pages by expanding it . This Syria -related article is a stub . You can help Misplaced Pages by expanding it . Syrian Civil War Total deaths 580,000 –617,910+ Civilian deaths 219,223–306,887+ Displaced people Foreign intervention in behalf of Syrian rebels U.S.-led intervention against ISIL The Syrian civil war

582-425: A government may be more likely to democratize. James C. Scott argues that governments may find it difficult to claim a sovereignty over a population when that population is in motion. Scott additionally asserts that exit may not solely include physical exit from the territory of a coercive state, but can include a number of adaptive responses to coercion that make it more difficult for states to claim sovereignty over

679-625: A link between economics and politics that is not conditional on institutions and culture and that presumes a definite endpoint—for example, an 'end of history'." A meta-analysis by Gerardo L. Munck of research on Lipset's argument shows that a majority of studies do not support the thesis that higher levels of economic development leads to more democracy. A 2024 study linked industrialization to democratization, arguing that large-scale employment in manufacturing made mass mobilization easier to occur and harder to repress. Theories on causes to democratization such as economic development focus rather on

776-797: A majority of the males get the vote. In September 1847, violent riots inspired by Liberals broke out in Reggio Calabria and in Messina in the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies , which were put down by the military. On 12 January 1848 a rising in Palermo spread throughout the island and served as a spark for the Revolutions of 1848 all over Europe. After similar revolutionary outbursts in Salerno , south of Naples , and in

873-472: A mass migration of farming families to urban centers. This migration strained infrastructure already burdened by the influx of some 1.5 million refugees from the Iraq War . The drought has been linked to anthropogenic global warming . Subsequent analysis, however, has challenged the narrative of the drought as a major contributor to the start of the war. Adequate water supply continues to be an issue in

970-556: A military intervention in support of the government in September 2015, shifting the balance of the conflict. By late 2018, all rebel strongholds except parts of Idlib region had fallen to the government forces. In 2014, the Islamic State group seized control of large parts of Eastern Syria and Western Iraq , prompting the U.S. -led CJTF coalition to launch an aerial bombing campaign against it, while providing ground support to

1067-592: A period of crisis and turmoil, the Italian fascist dictatorship was established. During World War II , Italy was first part of the Axis until it surrendered to the Allied powers (1940–1943) and then, as part of its territory was occupied by Nazi Germany with fascist collaboration , a co-belligerent of the Allies during the Italian resistance and the subsequent Italian Civil War , and

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1164-1900: A point of contention for United States since falling in the hands of ISIS, which were captured by American-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in 2017. Protests, civil uprising, and defections (March–July 2011) Initial armed insurgency (July 2011 – April 2012) Kofi Annan ceasefire attempt (April–May 2012) Next phase of the war starts: escalation (2012–2013) Rise of the Islamist groups (January–September 2014) U.S. intervention (September 2014 – September 2015) Russian intervention (September 2015 – March 2016), including first partial ceasefire Aleppo recaptured; Russian/Iranian/Turkish-backed ceasefire (December 2016 – April 2017) Syrian-American conflict; de-escalation zones (April–June 2017) ISIL siege of Deir ez-Zor broken; CIA program halted; Russian forces permanent (July–December 2017) Army advance in Hama province and Ghouta; Turkish intervention in Afrin (January–March 2018) Douma chemical attack; U.S.-led missile strikes; southern Syria offensive (April–August 2018) Idlib demilitarization; Trump announces U.S. withdrawal; Iraq strikes ISIL targets (September–December 2018) ISIL attacks continue; U.S. states conditions of withdrawal; fifth inter-rebel conflict (January–May 2019) Demilitarization agreement falls apart; 2019 northwestern Syria offensive; northern Syria buffer zone established (May–October 2019) U.S. forces withdraw from buffer zone; Turkish offensive into north-eastern Syria (October 2019) Northwestern offensive; Baylun airstrikes; Operation Spring Shield; Daraa clashes; Afrin bombing (late 2019; 2020) New economic crisis and stalemate conflict (June 2020–present) Pro-democracy Democratization , or democratisation ,

1261-520: A political settlement have gone nowhere, leaving the Assad regime firmly in power. The U.S. Council on Foreign Relations said: The war whose brutality once dominated headlines has settled into an uncomfortable stalemate. Hopes for regime change have largely died out, peace talks have been fruitless, and some regional governments are reconsidering their opposition to engaging with Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. The government has regained control of most of

1358-401: A population. These responses can include planting crops that are more difficult for states to count, or tending livestock that are more mobile. In fact, the entire political arrangement of a state is a result of individuals adapting to the environment, and making a choice as to whether or not to stay in a territory. If people are free to move, then the exit, voice, and loyalty model predicts that

1455-541: A relatively strong federal national government that included an executive , a national judiciary , and a bicameral Congress that represented states in the Senate and the population in the House of Representatives . In many fields, it was a success ideologically in the sense that a true republic was established that never had a single dictator, but voting rights were initially restricted to white male property owners (about 6% of

1552-412: A stalemate, by early 2023. The United States Institute of Peace said: Twelve years into Syria's devastating civil war, the conflict appears to have settled into a frozen state. Although roughly 30% of the country is controlled by opposition forces, heavy fighting has largely ceased and there is a growing regional trend toward normalizing relations with the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Over the last decade,

1649-495: A state will have to be of that population representative, and appease the populace in order to prevent them from leaving. If individuals have plausible exit options then they are better able to constrain a government's arbitrary behaviour through threat of exit. Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson argued that the relationship between social equality and democratic transition is complicated: People have less incentive to revolt in an egalitarian society (for example, Singapore ), so

1746-624: A strong Parliament that passed the Bill of Rights 1689 , which codified certain rights and liberties for individuals. It set out the requirement for regular parliaments, free elections, rules for freedom of speech in Parliament and limited the power of the monarch, ensuring that, unlike much of the rest of Europe, royal absolutism would not prevail. Only with the Representation of the People Act 1884 did

1843-532: A threat. Violence in the war peaked during 2012–2017, but the situation remains a crisis. By 2020, the Syrian government controlled about two-thirds of the country and was consolidating power. Frontline fighting between the Assad government and opposition groups had mostly subsided by 2023, but there had been regular flareups in northwestern Syria and large-scale protests emerged in southern Syria and spread nationwide in response to extensive autocratic policies and

1940-721: A wide franchise. The French Revolutionary Wars and the Napoleonic Wars lasted for more than twenty years. The French Directory was more oligarchic. The First French Empire and the Bourbon Restoration restored more autocratic rule. The French Second Republic had universal male suffrage but was followed by the Second French Empire . The Franco-Prussian War (1870–71) resulted in the French Third Republic . Germany established its first democracy in 1919 with

2037-508: A written democratic constitution , resulting from the work of a Constituent Assembly formed by the representatives of all the anti-fascist forces that contributed to the defeat of Nazi and Fascist forces during the liberation of Italy and the Italian Civil War , and coming into force on 1 January 1948. In Japan , limited democratic reforms were introduced during the Meiji period (when

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2134-458: Is an ongoing multi-sided conflict in Syria involving various state-sponsored and non-state actors . In March 2011, popular discontent with the rule of Bashar al-Assad triggered large-scale protests and pro-democracy rallies across Syria, as part of the wider Arab Spring protests in the region. After months of crackdown by the government's security apparatus, various armed rebel groups such as

2231-537: Is because development may entrench the incumbent leader but make it more difficult for him deliver the state to a son or trusted aide when he exits. However, the debate about whether democracy is a consequence of wealth, a cause of it, or both processes are unrelated, is far from conclusive. Another study suggests that economic development depends on the political stability of a country to promote democracy. Clark, Robert and Golder, in their reformulation of Albert Hirschman's model of Exit, Voice and Loyalty , explain how it

2328-547: Is characterized by regular skirmishes. In March 2011, popular discontent with the Ba'athist government led to large-scale protests and pro-democracy rallies across Syria, as part of the wider Arab Spring protests in the region. Numerous protests were violently suppressed by security forces in deadly crackdowns ordered by Bashar al-Assad, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths and detentions , many of whom were civilians. The Syrian revolution transformed into an insurgency with

2425-403: Is insufficient evidence to conclude that development causes democratization (turning an authoritarian state into a democracy). Economic development can boost public support for authoritarian regimes in the short-to-medium term. Andrew J. Nathan argues that China is a problematic case for the thesis that economic development causes democratization. Michael Miller finds that development increases

2522-408: Is not the increase of wealth in a country per se which influences a democratization process, but rather the changes in the socio-economic structures that come together with the increase of wealth. They explain how these structure changes have been called out to be one of the main reasons several European countries became democratic. When their socioeconomic structures shifted because modernization made

2619-400: Is the sole resource that has "been consistently correlated with less democracy and worse institutions" and is the "key variable in the vast majority of the studies" identifying some type of resource curse effect. A 2014 meta-analysis confirms the negative impact of oil wealth on democratization. Thad Dunning proposes a plausible explanation for Ecuador's return to democracy that contradicts

2716-621: Is the structural government transition from an authoritarian government to a more democratic political regime , including substantive political changes moving in a democratic direction. Whether and to what extent democratization occurs can be influenced by various factors, including economic development, historical legacies, civil society, and international processes. Some accounts of democratization emphasize how elites drove democratization, whereas other accounts emphasize grassroots bottom-up processes. How democratization occurs has also been used to explain other political phenomena, such as whether

2813-518: Is with the idea of waves of democratization A wave of democratization refers to a major surge of democracy in history. And Samuel P. Huntington identified three waves of democratization that have taken place in history. The first one brought democracy to Western Europe and Northern America in the 19th century. It was followed by a rise of dictatorships during the Interwar period . The second wave began after World War II , but lost steam between 1962 and

2910-601: The 2023 Ankara bombing , which the Turkish government alleges was carried out by attackers originating from Northeastern Syria. On November 27th, 2024, it was reported that in a sudden offensive in Northwestern Aleppo , rebels seized 13 villages, including the strategic towns of Urm Al-Sughra and Anjara, as well as Base 46, the largest Syrian regime base in the region. On November 28th it was reported that Russian and Syrian warplanes were bombing rebel positions in response to

3007-510: The Assad dynasty . The Syrian Regional Branch remained the dominant political authority in what had been a one-party state until the first multi-party election to the People's Council of Syria was held in 2012. On 31 January 1973, Hafez al-Assad implemented a new constitution, leading to a national crisis. The 1973 Constitution entrusted Arab Socialist Baath party with the distinctive role as

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3104-645: The Cilento region which were backed by the majority of the intelligentsia of the Kingdom, on 29 January 1848 King Ferdinand II of the Two Sicilies was forced to grant a constitution, using for a pattern the French Charter of 1830 . This constitution was quite advanced for its time in liberal democratic terms, as was the proposal of a unified Italian confederation of states. On 11 February 1848, Leopold II of Tuscany , first cousin of Emperor Ferdinand I of Austria , granted

3201-587: The Free Syrian Army began forming across the country, marking the beginning of the Syrian insurgency . By mid-2012, the crisis had escalated into a full-blown civil war. Rebel forces, receiving arms from NATO and Gulf Cooperation Council states, initially made significant advances against the government forces, who were receiving arms from Iran and Russia . Rebels captured the regional capitals of Raqqa in 2013 and Idlib in 2015. Consequently, Russia launched

3298-474: The Iran–Iraq–Syria pipeline . Syrian president Bashar al-Assad declined Qatar's year 2000 proposal to build a $ 10 billion Qatar–Turkey pipeline through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and Turkey, allegedly prompting covert CIA operations to spark a Syrian civil war to pressure Bashar al-Assad to resign and allow a pro-American president to step in and sign off on the deal. Leaked documents have shown that in 2009,

3395-631: The Kurdish -majority Syrian Democratic Forces . Culminating in the Battle of Raqqa , the Islamic State was territorially defeated by late 2017. In August 2016, Turkey launched a multi-pronged invasion of northern Syria , in response to the creation of Rojava , while also fighting Islamic State and government forces in the process. Since the March 2020 Idlib ceasefire , frontline fighting has mostly subsided, but

3492-671: The Syrian National Army and allied Free Syrian militias ). Another opposition faction is the Syrian Salvation Government , whose armed forces are represented by a coalition of Sunni militias led by Tahrir al-Sham . Independent of them is the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria , whose military force is the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a multi-ethnic, Arab-majority force led by

3589-455: The history of democracy , enduring democracy advocates succeed almost always through peaceful means when there is a window of opportunity. One major type of opportunity include governments weakened after a violent shock. The other main avenue occurs when autocrats are not threatened by elections, and democratize while retaining power. The path to democracy can be long with setbacks along the way. The French Revolution (1789) briefly allowed

3686-531: The liberation of Italy (1943–1945). The aftermath of World War II left Italy also with an anger against the monarchy for its endorsement of the Fascist regime for the previous twenty years. These frustrations contributed to a revival of the Italian republican movement. Italy became a republic after the 1946 Italian institutional referendum held on 2 June, a day celebrated since as Festa della Repubblica . Italy has

3783-493: The mechanization of agriculture : as landed elites became less reliant on the repression of agricultural workers, they became less hostile to democracy. According to political scientist David Stasavage , representative government is "more likely to occur when a society is divided across multiple political cleavages." A 2021 study found that constitutions that emerge through pluralism (reflecting distinct segments of society) are more likely to induce liberal democracy (at least, in

3880-590: The unification of Italy in 1861, was a constitutional monarchy . The new kingdom was governed by a parliamentary constitutional monarchy dominated by liberals. The Italian Socialist Party increased in strength, challenging the traditional liberal and conservative establishment. From 1915 to 1918, the Kingdom of Italy took part in World War I on the side of the Entente and against the Central Powers . In 1922, following

3977-496: The "leader of the state and society", empowering it to mobilise the civilians for party programmes, issue decrees to ascertain their loyalty and supervise all legal trade unions. Ba'athist ideology was imposed upon children as compulsory part of school curriculum and Syrian Armed Forces were tightly controlled to the Party. The constitution removed Islam from being recognised as the state religion and stripped existing provisions such as

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4074-607: The 18th century to the Arab Spring (2011–2012), 13 democratic waves can be identified. The V-Dem Democracy Report identified for the year 2023 9 cases of stand-alone democratization in East Timor, The Gambia, Honduras, Fiji, Dominican Republic, Solomon Islands, Montenegro, Seychelles, and Kosovo and 9 cases of U-Turn Democratization in Thailand, Maldives, Tunisia, Bolivia, Zambia, Benin, North Macedonia, Lesotho, and Brazil. Throughout

4171-403: The 2000 Damascus Spring , Bashar al-Assad was widely reported as having failed to implement any improvements. In 2010, he imposed a controversial national ban on female Islamic dress codes (such as face veils ) across universities, where reportedly over a thousand primary school teachers that wore the niqab were reassigned to administrative jobs. A Human Rights Watch report issued just before

4268-512: The 5-year hiatus. In preparation for the return of the fair, a new fairground was opened spreading over 1.2 million sqm. It is located on the Highway between Damascus and the International Airport . The new fairground enjoys exhibition halls, services and facilities according to the most modern global standards, and is one of the biggest fairgrounds worldwide. This article related to

4365-756: The Autonomous Administration's Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Turkish forces currently occupy parts of northern Syria and, since 2016, have fought the SDF, IS and the Assad government while actively supporting the Syrian National Army (SNA). Between 2011 and 2017, fighting from the Syrian civil war spilled over into Lebanon as opponents and supporters of the Syrian government traveled to Lebanon to fight and attack each other on Lebanese soil. While officially neutral, Israel has exchanged border fire and conducted repeated strikes against Hezbollah and Iranian forces , whose presence in western Syria it views as

4462-887: The CIA began funding and supporting opposition groups in Syria to foment a civil war. Harvard Professor Mitchell A Orenstein and George Romer stated that this pipeline feud is the true motivation behind Russia entering the war in support of Bashar al-Assad, supporting his rejection of the Qatar-Turkey pipeline and hoping to pave the way for the Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline which would bolster Russia's allies and stimulate Iran's economy. The U.S. military has set up bases near gas pipelines in Syria, purportedly to fight ISIS but perhaps also to defend their own natural gas assets, which have been allegedly targeted by Iranian militias. The Conoco gas fields have been

4559-484: The Constitution, with the general approval of his subjects. The Habsburg example was followed by Charles Albert of Sardinia ( Albertine Statute ; later became the constitution of the unified Kingdom of Italy and remained in force, with changes, until 1948 ) and by Pope Pius IX (Fundamental Statute). However, only King Charles Albert maintained the statute even after the end of the riots. The Kingdom of Italy , after

4656-523: The Kurdish YPG. Other competing factions include Jihadist organizations such as the al-Qaeda-branch Hurras al-Din (successor of Al-Nusra Front ) and the Islamic State (IS). A number of foreign countries, such as Iran , Russia , Turkey and the United States , have been directly involved in the civil war , providing support to opposing factions in the conflict. Iran, Russia and Hezbollah support

4753-550: The Syrian Arab Republic militarily, with Russia conducting airstrikes and ground operations in the country since September 2015. Since 2014, the U.S.-led international coalition has been conducting air and ground operations primarily against the Islamic State and occasionally against pro-Assad forces , and has been militarily and logistically supporting factions such as the Revolutionary Commando Army and

4850-639: The Transition ' ) or la Transición española ( ' the Spanish Transition ' ), is a period of modern Spanish history encompassing the regime change that moved from the Francoist dictatorship to the consolidation of a parliamentary system , in the form of constitutional monarchy under Juan Carlos I . The American Revolution (1765–1783) created the United States. The new Constitution established

4947-463: The U.S.-led coalition —of severe human rights violations and massacres . The conflict has caused a major refugee crisis , with millions of people fleeing to neighboring countries such as Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan ; however, a sizable minority has also sought refuge in countries outside of the Middle East, with Germany alone accepting over half a million Syrians since 2011. Over the course of

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5044-400: The agriculture sector more efficient, bigger investments of time and resources were used for the manufacture and service sectors. In England, for example, members of the gentry began investing more in commercial activities that allowed them to become economically more important for the state. This new kind of productive activities came with new economic power were assets became more difficult for

5141-433: The aspect of gaining capital, capital mobility focuses on the movement of money and the across borders of countries and different financial instruments and the corresponding restrictions. Over the past decades they have been multiple theories as to what the relationship is between capital mobility and democratization. The “doomsway view” is that capital mobility is an inherent threat to underdeveloped democracies by worsening

5238-531: The beginning of the 2011 uprising stated that Assad had failed to substantially improve the state of human rights since taking power. The United States and its allies intended to build the Qatar–Turkey pipeline which would relieve Europe of its dependence on Russian natural gas, especially during winter months where many European homes rely on Russia to survive the winter. On the contrary, Russia and its allies intended to stop this planned pipeline and instead build

5335-488: The beginning of the domination of personality cults centred around the Assad dynasty that pervaded all aspects of Syrian daily life and was accompanied by a systematic suppression of civil and political freedoms, becoming the central feature of state propaganda. Authority in Ba'athist Syria is monopolised by three power-centres: Alawite loyalist clans, Ba'ath party and the armed forces ; glued together by unwavering allegiance towards

5432-540: The civil society groups, political reformists and democratic activists that emerged during the Damascus spring in the 2000s. Bashar Al-Assad claims that no 'moderate opposition' to his government exists, and that all opposition forces are Islamists focused on destroying his secular leadership ; his view was that terrorist groups operating in Syria are 'linked to the agendas of foreign countries'. The total population in July 2018

5529-637: The civilian population. Upon Hafez al-Assad's death in 2000, his son Bashar al-Assad succeeded him as the President of Syria . Bashar's wife Asma , a Sunni Muslim born and educated in Britain, was initially hailed in the Western press a "rose in the desert". The couple once raised hopes amongst Syrian intellectuals and outside Western observers as wanting to implement economic and political reforms. However, Bashar failed to deliver on promised reforms, instead crushing

5626-412: The conflict erupted into one of the most complicated in the world, with a dizzying array of international and regional powers, opposition groups, proxies, local militias and extremist groups all playing a role. The Syrian population has been brutalized, with nearly a half a million killed, 12 million fleeing their homes to find safety elsewhere, and widespread poverty and hunger. Meanwhile, efforts to broker

5723-435: The conventional wisdom that natural resource rents encourage authoritarian governments. Dunning proposes that there are situations where natural resource rents, such as those acquired through oil, reduce the risk of distributive or social policies to the elite because the state has other sources of revenue to finance this kind of policies that is not the elite wealth or income. And in countries plagued with high inequality, which

5820-416: The country's re-democratization. Ecuador's re-democratization can then be attributed, as argued by Dunning, to the large increase of oil rents, which enabled not only a surge in public spending but placated the fears of redistribution that had grappled the elite circles. The exploitation of Ecuador's resource rent enabled the government to implement price and wage policies that benefited citizens at no cost to

5917-465: The country), Druze 3% and Jewish (few remaining in Damascus and Aleppo). Socioeconomic inequality increased significantly after free market policies were initiated by Hafez al-Assad in his later years, and it accelerated after Bashar al-Assad came to power. With an emphasis on the service sector , these policies benefited a minority of the nation's population, mostly people who had connections with

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6014-616: The country, and Assad's hold on power seems secure. In 2023, the main military conflict was not between the Syrian government and rebels, but between Turkish forces and factions within Syria. In late 2023, Turkish forces continued to attack Kurdish forces in the region of Rojava. Starting on 5 October 2023, the Turkish Armed Forces launched a series of air and ground strikes targeting the Syrian Democratic Forces in Northeastern Syria . The airstrikes were launched in response to

6111-629: The creation of the Weimar Republic , a parliamentary republic created following the German Empire 's defeat in World War I . The Weimar Republic lasted only 14 years before it collapsed and was replaced by Nazi dictatorship . Historians continue to debate the reasons why the Weimar Republic's attempt at democratization failed. After Germany was militarily defeated in World War II , democracy

6208-412: The distribution of power among classes – the peasantry, the bourgeoise and the landed aristocracy – and the nature of alliances between classes determined whether democratic, authoritarian or communist revolutions occurred. Moore also argued there were at least "three routes to the modern world" – the liberal democratic, the fascist, and the communist – each deriving from the timing of industrialization and

6305-591: The early cases being those of Colombia in 1810, Paraguay and Venezuela in 1811, and Chile in 1818. Adam Przeworski shows that some experiments with representative institutions in Latin America occurred earlier than in most European countries. Mass democracy, in which the working class had the right to vote, become common only in the 1930s and 1940s. The Spanish transition to democracy , known in Spain as la Transición ( IPA: [la tɾansiˈθjon] ; '

6402-548: The economic inequalities and favoring the interests of powerful elites and external actors over broader societal, which might lead to depending on money from outside, therefore affected by the economic situation in other countries. Sylvia Maxfield argues that a bigger demand for transparency in both the private and public sectors by some investors can contribute to a strengthening of democratic institutions and can encourage democratic consolidation. A 2016 study found that preferential trade agreements can increase democratization of

6499-421: The economic situation. The protests were noted as resembling the 2011 revolution that preceded the civil war. The war has resulted in an estimated 470,000–610,000 violent deaths, making it the second-deadliest conflict of the 21st century, after the Second Congo War . International organizations have accused virtually all sides involved—the Assad government, IS, opposition groups, Iran, Russia, Turkey, and

6596-430: The effects of the Great Depression. There is also the general observation that democracy was very rare before the industrial revolution. Empirical research thus led many to believe that economic development either increases chances for a transition to democracy, or helps newly established democracies consolidate. One study finds that economic development prompts democratization but only in the medium run (10–20 years). This

6693-450: The elite and allowed for a smooth transition and growth of democratic institutions. The thesis that oil and other natural resources have a negative impact on democracy has been challenged by historian Stephen Haber and political scientist Victor Menaldo in a widely cited article in the American Political Science Review (2011). Haber and Menaldo argue that "natural resource reliance is not an exogenous variable" and find that when tests of

6790-446: The formation of resistance militias across the country, deteriorating into a full-blown civil war by 2012. The war is fought by several factions. The Syrian Arab Armed Forces , alongside its domestic and foreign allies, represent the Syrian Arab Republic and Assad government. Opposed to it is the Syrian Interim Government , a big-tent alliance of pro-democratic , nationalist opposition groups (whose military forces consist of

6887-410: The government, and members of the Sunni merchant class of Damascus and Aleppo. In 2010, Syria's nominal GDP per capita was only $ 2,834, comparable to Sub-Saharan African countries such as Nigeria and far lower than its neighbors such as Lebanon, with an annual growth rate of 3.39%, below most other developing countries. The country also faced particularly high youth unemployment rates. At the start of

6984-411: The guiding father figure of the party and modern Syrian nation, advocating the continuation of Assad dynastic rule of Syria. As part of the publicity efforts to brand the nation and Assad dynasty as inseparable; slogans such as "Assad or we burn the country", "Assad or to hell with the country" and "Hafez Assad, forever" became an integral part of the state and party discourse during the 1980s. Eventually

7081-675: The idea of a political party took form with groups debating rights to political representation during the Putney Debates of 1647. Subsequently, the Protectorate (1653–59) and the English Restoration (1660) restored more autocratic rule although Parliament passed the Habeas Corpus Act in 1679, which strengthened the convention that forbade detention lacking sufficient cause or evidence. The Glorious Revolution in 1688 established

7178-645: The industrial modernization of Japan began), the Taishō period (1912–1926), and the early Shōwa period. Despite pro-democracy movements such as the Freedom and People's Rights Movement (1870s and 1880s) and some proto-democratic institutions, Japanese society remained constrained by a highly conservative society and bureaucracy. Historian Kent E. Calder notes that writers that "Meiji leadership embraced constitutional government with some pluralist features for essentially tactical reasons" and that pre-World war II Japanese society

7275-609: The likelihood of "democratization in regimes that are fragile and unstable, but makes this fragility less likely to begin with." There is research to suggest that greater urbanization, through various pathways, contributes to democratization. Numerous scholars and political thinkers have linked a large middle class to the emergence and sustenance of democracy, whereas others have challenged this relationship. In "Non-Modernization" (2022), Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson argue that modernization theory cannot account for various paths of political development "because it posits

7372-406: The likelihood of democratization is lower. In a highly unequal society (for example, South Africa under Apartheid ), the redistribution of wealth and power in a democracy would be so harmful to elites that these would do everything to prevent democratization. Democratization is more likely to emerge somewhere in the middle, in the countries, whose elites offer concessions because (1) they consider

7469-531: The likelihood of democratization. Initially argued by Lipset in 1959, this subsequently been referred to as modernization theory . According to Daniel Treisman, there is "a strong and consistent relationship between higher income and both democratization and democratic survival in the medium term (10–20 years), but not necessarily in shorter time windows." Robert Dahl argued that market economies provided favorable conditions for democratic institutions. A higher GDP/capita correlates with democracy and some claim

7566-819: The mid-1970s. The latest wave began in 1974 and is still ongoing. Democratization of Latin America and the former Eastern Bloc is part of this third wave . Waves of democratization can be followed by waves of de-democratization. Thus, Huntington, in 1991, offered the following depiction. • First wave of democratization, 1828–1926 • First wave of de-democratization, 1922–42 • Second wave of democratization, 1943–62 • Second wave of de-democratization, 1958–75 • Third wave of democratization, 1974– The idea of waves of democratization has also been used and scrutinized by many other authors, including Renske Doorenspleet, John Markoff , Seva Gunitsky , and Svend-Erik Skaaning. According to Seva Gunitsky, from

7663-552: The offensive. Additionally, Iranian state media said that Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General Kioumars Pourhashemi, a senior Iranian military adviser in Syria, was killed in Aleppo. The non-religious Ba'ath Syrian Regional Branch government came to power through a coup d'état in 1963 . For several years, Syria went through additional coups and changes in leadership, until in March 1971, General Hafez al-Assad , an Alawite , declared himself President . It marked

7760-531: The ongoing civil war and it is frequently the target of military action. The human rights situation in Syria has long been the subject of harsh critique from global organizations. The rights of free expression , association and assembly were strictly controlled in Syria even before the uprising. The country was under emergency rule from 1963 until 2011 and public gatherings of more than five people were banned. Security forces had sweeping powers of arrest and detention. Despite hopes for democratic change with

7857-654: The party organisation itself became a rubber stamp and the power structures became deeply dependent on sectarian affiliation to the Assad family and the central role of armed forces needed to crack down on dissent in the society. Critics of the regime have pointed out that deployment of violence is at the crux of Ba'athist Syria and describe it as "a dictatorship with genocidal tendencies". Hafez ruled Syria for 3 decades with an iron first, using methods ranging from censorship to violent measures of state terror such as mass murders , forced deportations and brutal practices such as torture , which were unleashed collectively upon

7954-1010: The population). Slavery was not abolished in the Southern states until the constitutional Amendments of the Reconstruction era following the American Civil War (1861–1865). The provision of Civil Rights for African-Americans to overcome post-Reconstruction Jim Crow segregation in the South was achieved in the 1960s. There is considerable debate about the factors which affect (e.g., promote or limit) democratization. Factors discussed include economic, political, cultural, individual agents and their choices, international and historical. Scholars such as Seymour Martin Lipset ; Carles Boix and Susan Stokes , and Dietrich Rueschemeyer, Evelyne Stephens , and John Stephens argue that economic development increases

8051-655: The president of Syria being required to be a Muslim . These measures caused widespread furore amongst the public, leading to fierce demonstrations in Hama , Homs and Aleppo organized by the Muslim Brotherhood and the ulama . Assad regime violently crushed the Islamic revolts that occurred during 1976–1982, waged by revolutionaries from the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood . The Ba'ath party carefully constructed Assad as

8148-447: The quantitative assessment of democratization. Some common democracy indices are Freedom House , Polity data series , V-Dem Democracy indices and Democracy Index . Democracy indices can be quantitative or categorical. Some disagreements among scholars concern the concept of democracy and how to measure democracy – and what democracy indices should be used. One way to summarize the outcome theories of democratization seek to account

8245-596: The role of the bourgeoisie in democratization. Eva Bellin argues that under certain circumstances, the bourgeoise and labor are more likely to favor democratization, but less so under other circumstances. Samuel Valenzuela argues that, counter to Moore's view, the landed elite supported democratization in Chile. A comprehensive assessment conducted by James Mahoney concludes that "Moore's specific hypotheses about democracy and authoritarianism receive only limited and highly conditional support." A 2020 study linked democratization to

8342-468: The short term). Robert Bates and Donald Lien, as well as David Stasavage, have argued that rulers' need for taxes gave asset-owning elites the bargaining power to demand a say on public policy, thus giving rise to democratic institutions. Montesquieu argued that the mobility of commerce meant that rulers had to bargain with merchants in order to tax them, otherwise they would leave the country or hide their commercial activities. Stasavage argues that

8439-454: The small size and backwardness of European states, as well as the weakness of European rulers, after the fall of the Roman Empire meant that European rulers had to obtain consent from their population to govern effectively. According to Clark, Golder, and Golder, an application of Albert O. Hirschman 's exit, voice, and loyalty model is that if individuals have plausible exit options, then

8536-502: The social structure at the time of transition. Thus, Moore challenged modernization theory, by stressing that there was not one path to the modern world and that economic development did not always bring about democracy. Many authors have questioned parts of Moore's arguments. Dietrich Rueschemeyer, Evelyne Stephens , and John D. Stephens, in Capitalist Development and Democracy (1992), raise questions about Moore's analysis of

8633-551: The state to count and hence more difficult to tax. Because of this, predation was no longer possible and the state had to negotiate with the new economic elites to extract revenue. A sustainable bargain had to be reached because the state became more dependent of its citizens remaining loyal and, with this, citizens had now leverage to be taken into account in the decision making process for the country. Adam Przeworski and Fernando Limongi argue that while economic development makes democracies less likely to turn authoritarian, there

8730-445: The threat of a revolution credible and (2) the cost of the concessions is not too high. This expectation is in line with the empirical research showing that democracy is more stable in egalitarian societies. Other approaches to the relationship between inequality and democracy have been presented by Carles Boix , Stephan Haggard and Robert Kaufman, and Ben Ansell and David Samuels . In their 2019 book The Narrow Corridor and

8827-698: The war, a number of peace initiatives have been launched, including the March 2017 Geneva peace talks on Syria led by the United Nations , but fighting has continued. In October 2019, Kurdish leaders of Rojava , a region within Syria, announced they had reached a major deal with the government of Syria under Assad. This deal was enacted in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from Syria. The Kurdish leaders made this deal in order to obtain Syria's help in stopping hostile Turkish forces who were invading Syria and attacking Kurds. The civil war had largely subsided, settling into

8924-420: The war, discontent against the government was strongest in Syria's poor areas, predominantly among conservative Sunnis. These included cities with high poverty rates, such as Daraa and Homs , and the poorer districts of large cities. The unrest coincided with the most intense drought ever recorded in Syria, which lasted from 2006 to 2011 and resulted in widespread crop failure, an increase in food prices and

9021-520: The wealthiest democracies have never been observed to fall into authoritarianism. The rise of Hitler and of the Nazis in Weimar Germany can be seen as an obvious counter-example, but although in early 1930s Germany was already an advanced economy, by that time, the country was also living in a state of economic crisis virtually since the first World War (in the 1910s), a crisis which was eventually worsened by

9118-961: Was dominated by a "loose coalition" of "landed rural elites, big business, and the military" that was averse to pluralism and reformism. While the Imperial Diet survived the impacts of Japanese militarism , the Great Depression , and the Pacific War , other pluralistic institutions, such as political parties , did not. After World War II, during the Allied occupation , Japan adopted a much more vigorous, pluralistic democracy. Countries in Latin America became independent between 1810 and 1825, and soon had some early experiences with representative government and elections. All Latin American countries established representative institutions soon after independence,

9215-401: Was estimated at 19,454,263 people; ethnic groups—approximately Arab 50%, Alawite 15%, Kurd 10%, Levantine 10%, other 15% (includes Druze , Ismaili , Imami , Assyrian , Turkmen , Armenian ); religions— Muslim 87% (official; includes Sunni 74% and Alawi, Ismaili and Shia 13%), Christian 10% (mainly of Eastern Christian churches —may be smaller as a result of Christians fleeing

9312-647: Was reestablished in West Germany during the U.S.-led occupation which undertook the denazification of society. In Great Britain, there was renewed interest in Magna Carta in the 17th century. The Parliament of England enacted the Petition of Right in 1628 which established certain liberties for subjects. The English Civil War (1642–1651) was fought between the King and an oligarchic but elected Parliament, during which

9409-421: Was the case of Ecuador in the 1970s, the result would be a higher likelihood of democratization. In 1972, the military coup had overthrown the government in large part because of the fears of elites that redistribution would take place. That same year oil became an increasing financial source for the country. Although the rents were used to finance the military, the eventual second oil boom of 1979 ran parallel to

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