Heterodox
71-607: The Chicago plan was a monetary and banking reform program suggested in the wake of the Great Depression by a group of University of Chicago economists including Henry Simons , Garfield Cox , Aaron Director , Paul Douglas , Albert G. Hart , Frank Knight , Lloyd Mints and Henry Schultz . Its main provision was to require 100% reserves on deposits subject to check, so that "the creation and destruction of effective money through private lending operations would be impossible". The plan, in other words, envisaged to separate
142-572: A BA degree in 1888, having also been elected as a member of the Skull and Bones society. In 1891, Fisher received the first PhD in economics granted by Yale. His faculty advisors were the theoretical physicist Willard Gibbs and the sociologist William Graham Sumner . As a student, Fisher had shown particular talent and inclination for mathematics, but he found that economics offered greater scope for his ambition and social concerns. His thesis, published by Yale in 1892 as Mathematical Investigations in
213-444: A "focal sepsis " theory, according to which mental illness resulted from infectious material in the roots of teeth, bowel recesses, and other places in the body. Cotton also claimed that surgical removal of the infected tissue could alleviate the patient's mental disorder. At Trenton, Margaret Fisher had sections of her bowel and colon removed, which eventually resulted in her death. Irving Fisher nonetheless remained convinced of
284-811: A bank. The American Colonies used the " Colonial Scrip " system prior to the Revolution , much to the praise of Benjamin Franklin . The paper money of Pennsylvania maintained its value for forty years. Abraham Lincoln used interest-free money created by the government to help the Union win the American Civil War . Since greenbacks were not limited by gold, they fueled wartime prosperity among farmers and industrial growth. Paul Hawken suggests wholesale reform of money and currency, based on ideas from green economics or Natural Capitalism , would be beneficial. These include
355-607: A central location. Newt Gingrich called for a commission on returning to a hard currency or asset-backed currency, which is often argued to be an antidote to inflation . This may involve using commodity money such as money backed by the gold , silver or both , commodities which supporters argue possess unique properties: their extraordinary malleability , their strong resistance to forgery , their character as stable and impervious to decay, and their inherently limited supply. Digital means are also now possible to allow trading in hard currencies such as gold, and some believe
426-498: A full recovery. That experience sparked in him a vocation as a health campaigner. He was one of the founders of the Life Extension Institute , under whose auspices he co-authored the bestselling book How to Live: Rules for Healthful Living Based on Modern Science , published in 1915. He advocated regular exercise and the avoidance of red meat , tobacco , and alcohol . In 1924, Fisher wrote an anti-smoking article for
497-441: A gold standard as a "natural choice." Irving Fisher Irving Fisher (February 27, 1867 – April 29, 1947) was an American economist , statistician , inventor, eugenicist and progressive social campaigner. He was one of the earliest American neoclassical economists , though his later work on debt deflation has been embraced by the post-Keynesian school. Joseph Schumpeter described him as "the greatest economist
568-441: A government-owned central bank ) see the provision of interest-free money as a way of freeing the working populace from the bonds of " debt slavery " and facilitating a transformation of the economy away from environmentally damaging consumerism and towards sustainable economic policies and environment-friendly business practices. Some governments have experimented in the past with debt-free government-created money independent of
639-438: A half-century later. Following the stock market crash of 1929, and in light of the ensuing Great Depression , Fisher developed a theory of economic crises called debt-deflation , which attributed the crises to the bursting of a credit bubble . Initially, during the upswing over-confident economic agents are lured by the prospect of high profits to increase their debt in order to leverage their gains. According to Fisher, once
710-480: A later date; value has a time as well as a quantity dimension. The relative price of goods available at a future date, in terms of goods sacrificed now, is measured by the interest rate . Fisher made free use of the standard diagrams used to teach undergraduate economics but labeled the axes "consumption now" and "consumption next period" (instead of the usual schematic alternatives of "apples" and "oranges" ). The resulting theory, one of considerable power and insight,
781-410: A lifetime's research into capital, capital budgeting , credit markets , and the factors (including inflation ) that determine interest rates. Fisher saw that subjective economic value is not only a function of the amount of goods and services owned or exchanged, but also of the moment in time when they are purchased with money. A good available now has a different value than the same good available at
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#1733084892190852-462: A new free market will emerge in money production and distribution, as the internet allows renewed decentralisation and competition in this area, eroding the central government 's and bankers' old monopoly control of the means of exchange . Kevin Dowd favours permitting competing banks to issue private banknotes whilst also eliminating the central bank's role as lender of last resort . He describes
923-475: A number of individuals on their proposal, and in November 1933, another memorandum was prepared. The memorandum was expanded to thirteen pages; there was a supplementary memorandum on "Long-time Objectives of Monetary Management" (seven pages) and an appendix titled "Banking and Business Cycles" (six pages). These memoranda generated much interest and discussion among lawmakers. However, the suggested reforms, such as
994-717: A proponent of Eugenics he helped found the Race Betterment Foundation in 1906. He also defended eugenics , serving in the scientific advisory board of the Eugenics Record Office and as first president of the American Eugenics Society . When his daughter Margaret was diagnosed with schizophrenia , Fisher had her treated at the New Jersey State Hospital at Trenton , whose director was the psychiatrist Henry Cotton . Cotton believed in
1065-871: A tutor, then after 1898 as a professor of political economy, and after 1935 as professor emeritus. He edited the Yale Review from 1896 to 1910 and was active in many learned societies, institutes, and welfare organizations. He was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 1912. He was president of the American Economic Association in 1918. He was elected to the American Philosophical Society in 1927. The American Mathematical Society selected him as its Gibbs Lecturer for 1929. A leading early proponent of econometrics , in 1930 he founded, with Ragnar Frisch and Charles F. Roos
1136-509: A wealthy man until his personal finances were badly hit by the Crash of 1929. Fisher was also an active social and health campaigner, as well as an advocate of vegetarianism , prohibition , and eugenics . In 1893, he married Margaret Hazard , a granddaughter of Rhode Island industrialist and social reformer Rowland G. Hazard . He died of inoperable colon cancer in New York City in 1947, at
1207-403: Is explicitly given the power to set interest rates and conduct monetary policy independent of any direct political interference or direction from the central government . This may enable the setting of interest rates to be less susceptible to political interference and thereby assist in combating inflation (or debasement of the currency) by allowing the central bank to more effectively restrict
1278-445: Is expressed as the " reserve ratio " and is limited by government regulators not to exceed a level which they deem adequate to ensure the ability of banks to meet their payment obligations. Under this system, which is currently practiced throughout the world, the money supply varies with the quantity of legal reserves and the amount of credit issuance by banks. Several major historical examples of financial regulatory reform occurred in
1349-406: Is now the major theory with which Fisher's name is associated. The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression cost Fisher much of his personal wealth and academic reputation. He famously predicted, nine days before the crash, that stock prices had "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." Irving Fisher stated on October 21 that the market was "only shaking out of
1420-580: Is outlined. Fisher was born in Saugerties, New York . His father was a teacher and a Congregational minister, who raised his son to believe he must be a useful member of society. Despite being raised in religious family, he later on became an atheist . As a child, he had remarkable mathematical ability and a flair for invention. A week after he was admitted to Yale College his father died, at age 53. Irving then supported his mother, brother, and himself, mainly by tutoring. He graduated first in his class with
1491-564: Is the nominal interest rate, and the inflation π {\displaystyle \pi } is a measure of the increase in the price level. When inflation is sufficiently low, the real interest rate can be approximated as the nominal interest rate minus the expected inflation rate . The resulting equation is known as the Fisher equation in his honor. Fisher believed that investors and savers – people in general – were afflicted in varying degrees by " money illusion "; they could not see past
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#17330848921901562-519: The Reader's Digest , which argued that "tobacco lowers the whole tone of the body and decreases its vital power and resistance ... [it] acts like a narcotic poison, like opium and like alcohol, though usually in a less degree". Fisher supported the legal prohibition of alcohol and wrote three booklets defending prohibition in the United States on grounds of public health and economic productivity. As
1633-567: The Econometric Society , of which he was the first president. Fisher was a prolific writer, producing journalism as well as technical books and articles, and addressing various social issues surrounding World War I , the prosperous 1920s and the depressed 1930s. He made several practical inventions, the most notable of which was an "index visible filing system" which he patented in 1913 and sold to Kardex Rand (later Remington Rand ) in 1925. This, and his subsequent stock investments, made him
1704-504: The Phillips curve ". Index numbers played an important role in his monetary theory, and his book The Making of Index Numbers has remained influential down to the present day. Fisher's main intellectual rival was the Swedish economist Knut Wicksell . Fisher espoused a more succinct explanation of the quantity theory of money, resting it almost exclusively on long run prices. Wicksell's theory
1775-496: The Treasury rather than from the quasi-government Federal Reserve. Austrian commentator Gary North has sharply criticized these views in his writings. Alternatively, some monetary reformers such as those in the social credit movement, support the issuance of repayable interest-free credit from a government-owned central bank to fund infrastructure and sustainable social projects. This social credit movement flourished briefly in
1846-612: The United Nations to provide global ecological management and move towards world peace , with Robert Mundell in particular advocating the revived use of gold as a stabilising factor in the international financial system. Henry Liu of the Asia Times Online argues that monetary reform is an important part of a move towards post-autistic economics . While some mainstream economists favour monetary reforms to reduce inflation and currency risk and to increase efficiency in
1917-468: The World Bank , International Monetary Fund , Bank of International Settlements and their policies regarding money supply , banks and debt in developing nations, in that they appear to these writers to be "forcing" a regime of extortionate or unpayable debt on weak Third World governments that do not have the capacity to pay the interest on these loans without severely affecting the well-being or even
1988-427: The money supply (and thereby debase the currency) to save the banking system from bankruptcy or collapse during periodic bank runs, thereby inducing moral hazard in the financial system, making the system susceptible to economic bubbles . Theorists such as Robert Mundell (and more radical thinkers such as James Robertson ) see a role for global monetary reform as part of a system of global institutions alongside
2059-990: The 1930s, including Lauchlin Currie of Harvard and Irving Fisher of Yale. A more recent variant of this reform idea is to be found in the " narrow banking " proposal. Although the Chicago Plan is often likened to other full-reserve plans (such as Fisher's), there were some important differences between them, for example, regarding bank intermediation. The Chicago Plan would not only have subjected checking deposits to full reserves, but further eliminated fractional-reserve banking itself: banks could no longer make loans out of savings deposits and would be replaced in their lending function by equity-financed investment trusts . Other proponents of full reserves, however, such as Currie and Fisher, would still have allowed commercial banks to make loans out of savings deposits, as long as these could not be made transferable by check. As Fisher put it in 1936,
2130-598: The 20th century relating to fractional-reserve banking, made in response to the Great Depression and the many bank runs following the crash of 1929 . These reforms included the creation of deposit insurance (such as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ) to mitigate against the danger of bank runs. Countries have also implemented legal reserve requirements which impose minimum reserve requirements on banks. Mainstream economists believe that these monetary reforms have made sudden disruptions in
2201-528: The 5th Annual American Monetary Institute Monetary Reform Conference (2009), and the images were scanned for display on the internet. The Chicago plan was submitted to the Government, but did not result in any new legislation. In August 2012, the proposal was given renewed attention after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published a working paper by Jaromir Benes and Michael Kumhof . In
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2272-637: The Theory of Value and Prices , was a rigorous development of the theory of general equilibrium . When he began writing the thesis, Fisher had not been aware that Léon Walras and his continental European disciples had already covered similar ground. Nonetheless, Fisher's work was a very significant contribution and was immediately recognized and praised as first-rate by such European masters as Francis Edgeworth . After graduating from Yale, Fisher studied in Berlin and Paris . From 1890 onward, he remained at Yale, first as
2343-408: The United States has ever produced", an assessment later repeated by James Tobin and Milton Friedman . Fisher made important contributions to utility theory and general equilibrium . He was also a pioneer in the rigorous study of intertemporal choice in markets, which led him to develop a theory of capital and interest rates . His research on the quantity theory of money inaugurated
2414-469: The age of 80. James Tobin , writing on the contributions of John Bates Clark and Irving Fisher to neoclassical theory in America argues that American economists contributed in their own way to the preparation of a common ground after the neoclassical revolution. In particular Clark and Irving Fisher "brought neoclassical theory into American journals, classrooms, and textbooks, and its analytical tools into
2485-496: The allocation of financial capital , the idea of all-encompassing reform for green or peace objectives is typically espoused by those on the left-wing of the subject and those associated with the anti-globalization movement . Still other radical reform proposals emphasise monetary, tax and capital budget reform which empowers government to direct the economy toward sustainable solutions which are not possible if government spending can only be financed with more government debt from
2556-587: The arguments in his doctoral thesis, he built an elaborate hydraulic machine with pumps and levers, allowing him to demonstrate visually how the equilibrium prices in the market adjusted in response to changes in supply or demand. Fisher is probably best remembered today in neoclassical economics for his theory of capital , investment , and interest rates , first exposited in his The Nature of Capital and Income (1906) and elaborated on in The Rate of Interest (1907). His 1930 treatise, The Theory of Interest , summed up
2627-424: The banking system less frequent. Walter Block argued fractional reserve banking inherently artificially lowers real interest rates and leads to business cycles propagated by excessive capital investment and subsequent contraction. A small number of critics, such as Michael Rowbotham , equate the practice to counterfeiting , because banks are granted the legal right to issue new loans while charging interest on
2698-516: The banks would be free to lend money, "provided we now no longer allow them to manufacture the money that they lend". An important motivation of the Chicago Plan was to prevent the nationalization of the banking sector, which, in the context of the Great Depression, was considered by some as a real possibility. This concern was shared by Fisher: "In short: nationalize money, but do not nationalize banking." A six-page memorandum on banking reform
2769-429: The credit bubble bursts, this unleashes a series of effects that have serious negative impact on the real economy: Crucially, as debtors try to liquidate or pay off their nominal debt, the fall of prices caused by this defeats the very attempt to reduce the real burden of debt. Thus, while repayment reduces the amount of money owed, this does not happen fast enough since the real value of the dollar now rises ('swelling of
2840-562: The current system of money creation based on the credit theory of money or fractional reserve banking are as follows: To regulate credit creation, some countries have created a currency board , or granted independence to their central bank . The Reserve Bank of New Zealand , the Reserve Bank of Australia , the Federal Reserve , and the Bank of England are examples where the central bank
2911-539: The dollar'). This theory was largely ignored in favor of Keynesian economics , in part because of the damage to Fisher's reputation caused by his public optimism about the stock market, just prior to the crash. Debt-deflation has experienced a revival of mainstream interest since the 1980s, and particularly with the Late-2000s recession . Steve Keen predicted the 2008 recession by using Hyman Minsky 's further development of Fisher's work on debt-deflation. Debt-deflation
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2982-412: The draft with 40 more had "approved it with reservations" and "43 have expressed disapproval". The proposal was never published. A copy of the paper was apparently preserved in a college library. Copies of the paper, stamped on the bottom of the first and last pages "LIBRARY – COLORADO STATE COLLEGE OF A. & M. A. – FORT COLLINS COLORADO" were circulated at
3053-487: The early 20th century, but then became marginalized. In Canada, it was an important political movement that ruled Alberta through nine legislatures between 1935 and 1971, and also won many seats in Québec . It died out in the 1980s. Both these groups (those who advocate the replacement of fractional-reserve banking with debt-free government-issued fiat, and those who support the issuance of repayable interest-free credit from
3124-406: The following, among other proposals: Of all the aspects of monetary policy , certain topics reoccur as targets for reform: Banks typically make loans to customers by crediting new demand deposits to the account of the customer. This practice, which is known as fractional reserve banking , permits the total supply of credit to exceed the liquid legal reserves of the bank. The amount of this excess
3195-527: The growth of M3 . However, given that these policies do not address the more fundamental issues inherent in fractional reserve banking, many suggest that only more radical monetary reform such as government directly taking over central banks such as the China or Swiss models can promote positive economic or social change. Although central banks may appear to control inflation, through periodic bank rescues and other means, they may inadvertently be forced to increase
3266-507: The history of utility theory, economist George Stigler wrote that Fisher's doctoral thesis had been "brilliant" and stressed that it contained "the first careful examination of the measurability of the utility function and its relevance to demand theory." While his published work exhibited an unusual degree of mathematical sophistication for an economist of his day, Fisher always sought to bring his analysis to life and to present his theories as lucidly as possible. For instance, to complement
3337-651: The ideas of Keynes . Fisher's debt-deflation scenario has since seen a revival since the 1980s. Lawrence Lokken, the University of Miami School of Law professor of economics, credits Fisher's 1942 book with the concept behind the Unlimited Savings Accumulation Tax , a reform introduced in the United States Senate in 1995 by Senator Pete Domenici (R-New Mexico), former Senator Sam Nunn (D-Georgia), and Senator Bob Kerrey (D-Nebraska). The concept
3408-543: The ideas of soft currency , barter and the local service economy . Local currency systems can operate within small communities, outside of government systems, and use specially printed notes or tokens called scrips for exchange. Barter takes this further by swapping goods and services directly; a compromise being the Local Exchange Trading Systems (LETS) scheme: a formalised system of community-based economics that records members' mutual credit in
3479-479: The imposition of full reserves on demand deposits , were shelved and replaced by less drastic measures. The Banking Act of 1935 institutionalized federal deposit insurance and the separation of commercial and investment banking. It successfully restored the public's confidence in the banking system and ended discussion of banking reform. As America entered the Recession of 1937–1938 , this caused renewed discussion of
3550-400: The issuing from the lending of money. This, according to its authors, would prevent the money supply from cyclically varying as bank loans were expanded or contracted. In addition, the payment system would become perfectly safe. No great monetary contraction as that of 1929–1933 could ever occur again. This idea of full reserves on checking deposits would be advocated by other economists in
3621-532: The key elements of the Chicago plan, and in July 1939 a new proposal was drafted, titled A Program for Monetary Reform . The draft paper was attributed on its cover page to six American economists: Paul H. Douglas , Irving Fisher , Frank D. Graham , Earl J. Hamilton , Wilford I. King, and Charles R. Whittlesey. It claimed that 235 economists from 157 universities and colleges had expressed approval of
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#17330848921903692-406: The kits of researchers and practitioners." Already in his doctoral thesis, "Fisher expounds thoroughly the mathematics of utility functions and their maximization, and he is careful to allow for corner solutions." Already then, Fisher "states clearly that neither interpersonally comparable utility nor cardinal utility for each individual is necessary to the determination of equilibrium." In reviewing
3763-461: The late 1960s to the 1970s, a period of increasing reliance on mathematical models within the field. Interest in him has also grown in the public due to an increased interest in debt deflation after the Great Recession . Fisher was one of the foremost proponents of the full-reserve banking , which he advocated as one of the authors of A Program for Monetary Reform where the general proposal
3834-423: The lunatic fringe" and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. On Wednesday, October 23, he announced in a banker's meeting "security values in most instances were not inflated." For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner. Once the Great Depression was in full force, he did warn that
3905-402: The main focus of Fisher's mature work. It was Fisher who (following the pioneering work of Simon Newcomb ) formulated the quantity theory of money in terms of the " equation of exchange :" Let M be the total stock of money, P the price level , T the number of transactions carried out using money, and V the velocity of circulation of money, so that: Later economists replaced T by
3976-555: The money thus created. Rowbotham argues that this concentrates wealth in the banking sector with various pernicious effects. Wright Patman objected to governments paying interest for the use of money which the central bank creates "out of nothing". These critics claim that this system causes economic activity to depend on the actions of privately owned banks, which are motivated by self-interest rather than by any explicit social purpose or obligation. Some monetary reformers criticise existing global financial institutions such as
4047-408: The money to the goods the money could buy. In an ideal world, changes in the price level would have no effect on production or employment. In the actual world with money illusion, inflation (and deflation) did serious harm. For more than forty years, Fisher elaborated his vision of the damaging "dance of the dollar" and devised various schemes to "stabilize" money, i.e. to stabilize the price level. He
4118-510: The ongoing drastic deflation was the cause of the disastrous cascading insolvencies then plaguing the American economy because deflation increased the real value of debts fixed in dollar terms. Fisher was so discredited by his 1929 pronouncements and by the failure of a firm he had started that few people took notice of his "debt-deflation" analysis of the Depression. People instead eagerly turned to
4189-495: The paper in 2019, Christine Lagarde (managing director of the IMF when the paper was published) said that she was not convinced "that eliminating the role of private banks in the supply of 'broad' money is a good idea". Monetary reform Monetary reform is any movement or theory that proposes a system of supplying money and financing the economy that is different from the current system. Monetary reformers may advocate any of
4260-499: The paper, the authors have updated the original Chicago plan proposal to fit into today's economy. They conclude that the advantages of such a system, according to the authors, are a more balanced economy without the booms and busts of the current system, the elimination of bank runs, and a drastic reduction of both public and private debt . The authors rely on economic theory and historical examples and state that inflation , according to their calculations, would be very low. Asked about
4331-413: The private banking system. In particular, a number of monetary reformers, such as Michael Rowbotham, Stephen Zarlenga and Ellen Brown , support the restriction or banning of fractional-reserve banking (characterizing it as an illegitimate banking practice akin to embezzlement ) and advocate the replacement of fractional-reserve banking with government-issued debt-free fiat currency issued directly from
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#17330848921904402-422: The real output Y (or Q ), usually quantified by the real Gross domestic product (GDP). Fisher's Appreciation and Interest was an abstract analysis of the behavior of interest rates when the price level is changing. It emphasized the distinction between real and nominal interest rates : where r {\displaystyle r} is the real interest rate, i {\displaystyle i}
4473-421: The school of macroeconomic thought known as " monetarism ". Fisher was also a pioneer of econometrics , including the development of index numbers . Some concepts named after him include the Fisher equation , the Fisher hypothesis , the international Fisher effect , the Fisher separation theorem and Fisher market . Fisher was perhaps the first celebrity economist, but his reputation during his lifetime
4544-423: The viability of the local population. The attempt by weak Third World governments to service external debt with the sale of valuable hard and soft commodities on world markets is seen by some to be destructive of local cultures, destroying local communities and their environment. Among the arguments for a transition to full-reserve banking or sovereign money are as follows: Among the arguments for keeping
4615-469: Was considerably more complicated, beginning with interest rates in a system of changes in the real economy. Although both economists concluded from their theories that at the heart of the business cycle (and economic crisis) was government monetary policy, their disagreement would not be solved in their lifetimes, and indeed, it was inherited by the policy debates between the Keynesians and monetarists beginning
4686-421: Was given limited and confidential distribution to about forty individuals on 16 March 1933. The plan was supported by such notable economists as Frank H. Knight , Paul H. Douglas , and Henry C. Simons , as well as by Lloyd W. Mints, Henry Schultz , Garfield V. Cox , Aaron Director , and Albert G. Hart. Between March and November 1933, the Chicago economists received comments from
4757-589: Was irreparably harmed by his public statement, just nine days before the Wall Street Crash of 1929 , that the stock market had reached "a permanently high plateau". His subsequent theory of debt deflation as an explanation of the Great Depression , as well as his advocacy of full-reserve banking and alternative currencies , were largely ignored in favor of the work of John Maynard Keynes . Fisher's reputation has since recovered in academic economics, particularly after his theoretical models were rediscovered in
4828-451: Was making an impact on society as a whole. Once he brought out his Quantity Theory of Money, it started to bring economic models to life. One of the strongest points that Fisher brings out in discussing interest rates was the power of impatience. Fisher's research into the basic theory of prices and interest rates did not touch directly on the great social issues of the day. On the other hand, his monetary economics did and this grew to be
4899-456: Was one of the first to subject macroeconomic data, including the money stock, interest rates, and the price level, to statistical analyses and tests. In the 1920s, he introduced the technique later called distributed lags . In 1973, the Journal of Political Economy posthumously reprinted his 1926 paper on the statistical relation between unemployment and inflation , retitling it as "I discovered
4970-571: Was presented in detail in The Theory of Interest . This model, later generalized to the case of K goods and N periods (including the case of infinitely many periods) has become a standard theory of capital and interest, and is described in Gravelle and Rees, and Aliprantis, Brown, and Burkinshaw. This theoretical advance is explained in Hirshleifer. Fisher saw that his theory, via economic policy,
5041-413: Was that unnecessary spending (which is hard to define in a law) can be taxed by taxing income minus all net investments and savings, and minus an allowance for essential purchases, thus making funds available for investment. With significant post-war activity In 1898, Fisher was diagnosed with tuberculosis , the same disease that had killed his father. He spent three years in sanatoria, finally making
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