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18-604: The broad program announcement for ACE was published on June 30, 2010. ACE funded the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES) website and interface on July 15, 2011. They funded The Good Judgment Project some time around July 2011. ACE has been covered in The Washington Post '' and Wired Magazine . The program was concluded by late 2015. The program manager was future IARPA director Jason Gaverick Matheny . The official website says that

36-660: A chief investment strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management from 2004 until leaving the firm in 2013, to rejoin Credit Suisse. He is the former president of the Consumer Analyst Group of New York and has been "repeatedly named to Institutional Investor’s All-America Research Team and The Wall Street Journal All-Star survey". During a February 2021 interview by The Economic Times , Mauboussin, noted as “one of Wall Street’s most creative and influential minds," stated that speculators now outnumbered investors in

54-657: A public forecasting tournament at the Good Judgment Open site. Like the Good Judgment Project, Good Judgment Open has questions about geopolitical and financial events, although it also has questions about US politics, entertainment, and sports. GJP has repeatedly been discussed in The Economist . GJP has also been covered in The New York Times , The Washington Post , and Co.Exist. NPR aired

72-483: A segment on The Good Judgment Project by the title "So You Think You're Smarter Than a CIA Agent", on April 2, 2014. The Financial Times published an article on the GJP on September 5, 2014. Washingtonian published an article that mentioned the GJP on January 8, 2015. The BBC and The Washington Post published articles on the GJP respectively on January 20, 21, and 29, 2015. The Almanac of Menlo Park published

90-481: A story on the GJP on January 29, 2015. An article on the GJP appeared on the portal of the Philadelphia Inquirer , Philly.com, on February 4, 2015. The book Wiser: Getting Beyond Groupthink to Make Groups Smarter has a section detailing the involvement of the GJP in the tournament run by IARPA. Psychology Today published online a short article summarizing the paper by Mellers, et al ., that wraps up

108-509: A total of about 30 team members, including the co-leaders as well as David Budescu , Lyle Ungar , Jonathan Baron , and prediction-markets entrepreneur Emile Servan-Schreiber. The advisory board included Daniel Kahneman , Robert Jervis , J. Scott Armstrong , Michael Mauboussin , Carl Spetzler and Justin Wolfers . The study employed several thousand people as volunteer forecasters. Using personality-trait tests, training methods and strategies

126-677: Is also an adjunct professor of finance at the Columbia Business School and serves as chairman emeritus of the board of trustees at the Santa Fe Institute , a multi-disciplinary research center for complex adaptive systems , after serving as its chairman from 2012 until retiring in May 2021. Mauboussin first joined Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) in 1992 as a packaged food industry analyst and later served as its managing director and chief U.S. investment strategist. He worked as

144-538: Is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events". It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of Superforecasting and Expert Political Judgment ), decision scientist Barbara Mellers , and Don Moore , all professors at the University of Pennsylvania . The project began as a participant in the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program of

162-612: The Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program at IARPA (IARPA-ACE). The first contest began in September 2011. GJP was one of many entrants in the IARPA-ACE tournament, which posed around 100 to 150 questions each year on geopolitical events. The GJP research team gathered a large number of talented amateurs (rather than geopolitical subject matter experts), gave them basic tutorials on forecasting best practice and overcoming cognitive biases , and created an aggregation algorithm to combine

180-528: The Economist discusses the main concepts. A Wall Street Journal article depicts it as: "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow ." The Harvard Business Review paired it to the book How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking by Jordan Ellenberg . On September 30, 2015, NPR aired an episode of the Colin McEnroe Show centering on

198-641: The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA). It then extended its crowd wisdom to commercial activities, recruiting forecasters and aggregating the predictions of the most historically accurate among them to forecast future events . Predictions are scored using Brier scores . The top forecasters in GJP are "reportedly 30% better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information." The Good Judgment Project began in July 2011 in collaboration with

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216-731: The GJP and the book Superforecasting ; guests on the show were Tetlock, IARPA Director Jason Matheny , and superforecaster Elaine Rich. Michael Mauboussin Michael J. Mauboussin (born February 1964) heads consilient research at Morgan Stanley division Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Counterpoint Global, an open-end mutual fund . Previously, he was director of research at BlueMountain Capital and head of global financial strategies at Credit Suisse , where he advised clients on valuation and portfolio positioning, capital markets theory, competitive strategy analysis, and decision making. He

234-657: The IARPA ACE program. The ACE has collaborated with partners who compete in its forecasting tournaments. Their most notable partner is The Good Judgment Project from Philip E. Tetlock et al. (winner of a 2013 ACE tournament) ACE also partnered with the ARA to create the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES). Data from ACE is fed into another program, called Forecasting Science and Technology (ForeST), which partners with SciCast from George Mason University . The Good Judgment Project The Good Judgment Project ( GJP )

252-413: The goals of ACE are "to dramatically enhance the accuracy, precision, and timeliness of intelligence forecasts for a broad range of event types, through the development of advanced techniques that elicit, weight, and combine the judgments of many intelligence analysts." The website claims that ACE seeks technical innovations in the following areas: There is a fair amount of research funded by grants made by

270-519: The individual predictions of the forecasters. GJP won both seasons of the contest, and were 35% to 72% more accurate than any other research team. Starting with the summer of 2013, GJP were the only research team IARPA-ACE was still funding, and GJP participants had access to the Integrated Conflict Early Warning System . The co-leaders of the GJP include Philip Tetlock , Barbara Mellers and Don Moore . The website lists

288-436: The main findings of the GJP. The project spawned a 2015 book by Tetlock and coauthored by Dan Gardner, Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction , that divulges the main findings of the research conducted with the data from the GJP. Co-author Gardner had already published a book in 2010, that quoted previous research by Tetlock that seeded the GJP effort. A book review in the September 26, 2015, print edition of

306-634: The people involved with it. The results show that harnessing a blend of statistics, psychology, training and various levels of interaction between individual forecasters, consistently produced the best forecast for several years in a row. A commercial spin-off of the Good Judgment Project started to operate on the web in July 2015 under the name Good Judgment Inc. Their services include forecasts on questions of general interest, custom forecasts, and training in Good Judgment's forecasting techniques. Starting in September 2015, Good Judgment Inc has been running

324-426: The researchers at GJP were able to select forecasting participants with less cognitive bias than the average person; as the forecasting contest continued the researchers were able to further down select these individuals in groups of so-called superforecasters . The last season of the GJP enlisted a total of 260 superforecasters. A significant amount of research has been conducted based on the Good Judgment Project by

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